The ".500" record and playoff race thread

[pi2000]

All these numbers flying around ...  :unsure:

 

Typically a team needs in the 95 - 98 point range to make the playoffs.  This season does not look much different.

 

So, the Sabres currently sit at 47 points after 46 games.  There are 36 games left for a total of 72 available points.

 

To have a shot the Sabres will need to gain 49 - 50 points of those 72 available.  A 68, or 69, %age of points available.  Not impossible, but not likely either.

 

 

With how this team has played to date, I think it's safe to say it's an impossible task.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

With how this team has played to date, I think it's safe to say it's an impossible task.  

 

Yup, but I was not going to say it ...  ;)

 

In January, so far, they are on a 65% pace, which is very good, but since they were just horrible (mostly) until now they are in such a deep hole that they will need a lot of shovelling just to get to the point where they can start to dig themselves out.  That said, January, so far, is a good start.  They need to go on a run of 20 points in 10 games and then take it from there.

[pi2000]

Yup, but I was not going to say it ...  ;)

 

In January, so far, they are on a 65% pace, which is very good, but since they were just horrible (mostly) until now they are in such a deep hole that they will need a lot of shovelling just to get to the point where they can start to dig themselves out.  That said, January, so far, is a good start.  They need to go on a run of 20 points in 10 games and then take it from there.

 

If that happens, I will eat my shoe.

[Samson's Flow]

If that happens, I will eat my shoe.

I will make a shoe, and then eat it.

 

It ain't gonna happen. We still can't generate offense or score regularly.

[DarthEbriate]

Woah, slow down there. We haven't agreed on what .500 is yet.

:beer:

 

I like DeLuca .500 because it accurately defines what .500 is -- balancing wins against tallying up all your losses into one convenient bundle. But a Fudge .500 sounds tastier.

The annoying thing are the GMs/coaches/talking heads living in the past (pre-loser point) using .500 as a valid term and claiming team success with the NHL .500.

 

What would be interesting to do, if I had lots of free time, would be to calculate each team's current points using a variety or scoring systems (3-point system, win-lose-tie instead of shootouts, etc.) Then, see where each team would be and whether it made any difference.

[Thorner]

When you lose more games than you win, and you end up with 82 points, you miss the playoffs by a mile.  So we can pretend the Sabres are at ".500 points percentage" -- or we can want them to win at least as many games as they lose and at least come close to making the playoffs.

I agree, except we aren't really pretending Sabres are at/above a .500 points percentage. They are, in fact, there. Its a real thing. It's just that, as you say, it doesn't mean very much.

 

On the other side of the coin, it oversimplifies things the other way, if one were to take our record of 19-18-9 and say we are 19-27. As one could make the argument that all those losses aren't created equal. If there was no gimmicky 3 on 3 or shootout, we may have won some of those games.

 

However, It's not like they can quite be written off as something that should be considered a "tie", as depending on how one feels about how accurately 3 on 3 and the shootout evaluate the potency of your team, those OT and shootout losses still probably lean more towards being worthy of a traditional "loss" rather than a "win", if that makes sense. But it's something to think about. We have more regulation wins than regulation losses.

 

Of course, that is neither here nor there, as there *is* in fact an OT process and teams need to be judged within those standards accordingly. Relative to the rest of the league, 19-18-9 is not good enough, and never would be.

 

---

 

In terms of the "games in hand", I think it's helpful to frame the conversation in "control your own destiny" terms. I.e. - What is the best we could do, REGARDLESS of what the other teams do. Example - Boston. As said, teams aren't going to "sit and wait" for us to play games in hand. But the fact of the matter remains, that we will get to play those extra games. Spread out over the season, of course. For the sake of argument, I employ "all else being equal" with regard to the rest of the schedule, the 32 games both Boston and Buffalo have in the standings, as it's impossible to predict how those games will unfold. Then "control your own destiny" comes in:

 

With the Sabres having 4 games in hand, being 5 points behind, there is nothing Boston can do (putting aside head to head matchups, but again, we control our own destiny there, too) to prevent us from passing them, if we take care of our side of things. We don't require any outside assistance in regards to passing them, depending of course on the Sabres picking up the required points in those games.

 

Now obviously, whether we can actually *win* those games is the issue, and judging based on the season so far, it would be tough. But 5 points in 4 games isn't far off our current pace.

 

Finally, which teams do we "control our own destiny" over? Illustration - if every team from Boston, down, in the standings (including Buffalo) wins their games in hand over Boston, on their way to matching their 50 games played, where does that leave teams at the 50 games mark? (I'll include Philadelphia, as they are holding the last WC spot)

 

NY Islanders - 57 points

Philadelphia - 56

Buffalo - 55

Carolina - 55

Detroit - 54

New Jersey - 53

Boston - 52

Florida - 52

Tampa Bay - 51

 

This is to say: if we win our games in hand, and everyone else does too, we are only 2 points back from a playoff spot. We currently "control our own destiny" over every team we need to beat to get to the playoffs, except for Philadelphia and funnily enough, the Islanders, and we aren't far behind those 2 teams.

 

Now, some may say this is meaningless, as there are so many teams factored in here, one of them is bound to jump ahead of the pack throughout the course of the season, with an improved winning % from what they have show so far. But isn't that every season, right from the start, with regards to the Willard? Granted, there are 2 WC playoff sports available at the start of every year, as opposed to, realistically, 1 spot now. But it's the same concept: fewer spots available than teams, with your team not only having to play good, but better than the others competing against you. The odds aren't "good", but they never really are, when you are competing for a WC spot.

 

The point being, we are barely off the position we were to start the year, controlling our own destiny still, for the most part. The difference is, we'll have to buck the trend and consistent roughly .500 points% pace we've shown through the first half of the season, which is obviously much easier said than done.

 

But I wouldn't say it's without hope.

 

Apologies for length.

[jsb]

Current Eastern Conference Standings by JSB .500

 

Washington +17

Columbus   +16

Pittsburgh   +13

Montreal     +9

NY Rang.    +9

Ottawa        +4

Toronto       +2

Phil Flyers   -2

:cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:

Boston        -4  

Carolina      -4

NY Isles      -4

Detroit         -5

NewJersey  -5

Florida        -5

Sabres        -5

Tampa Bay  -7

Edited January 24, 2017 by jsb

[jsb]

Last years JSB .500 was 91 points.... Last seasons final results

 

Washington          +29

Pittsburgh             +13

Florida                  +12

NY Rangers          +10

NY Isles                +9

Tampa Bay            +6

Philadelphia          +5

Detroit                   +2

:cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:

Boston                  +2

Carolina                -5

Ottawa                  -6

New Jersey           -7

Montreal                -9

Buffalo                  -10

Columbus             -15

Toronto                 -22

[North Buffalo]

Reading above and now My head hurts... seriously it does im sick... all i ask is Sabres make the playoffs or tank enough to get a top 3 pick... Dont care how.

[woods-racer]

How about this: .500 is an arbitrary mark that means nothing. If you like, we should all be worried about getting to .580 in points, regardless of how many wins and "losses"

that adds up to.

 

.500 is the +/- of team records.

 

.500 is the Matt Ellis of......

 

Dam wrong thread. :doh:

[JohnRobertEichel]

Why are we trying to determine if .500 gets you into the playoffs?

 

Here's what really matters:

 

After 3 seasons of the new playoff format, we know that 93 points is the bare minimum to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. So the Sabres likely need to accumulate at least 44 points in 35 games, which is roughly 1.25 ppg, just to enter the playoff conversation. A pace of winning 2 out of every 3 games from here on out should suffice. 

 

In my opinion, the top 7 teams look to be already settled: Caps, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Rangers, Canadiens, Senators, and Maple Leafs. So the Sabres will be in a dogfight with 8 other teams for that final spot. The hottest of the 9 during the home stretch will make it in.

 

For what it's worth, I added up the overtime losses in the Eastern Conference from the past 3 seasons. In the first season, there were 165 OTL with 93 points as the minimum for playoff entry. In the second season, there were 175 OTL with 98 points as the minimum. Last season, there were 152 OTL with 93 points as the minimum. This year, there have been 107 OTL with about 58.2% of all Eastern Conference games already played....putting the entire conference on pace for about 184 OTL after a full season....so it's reasonable to assume that the Sabres will need a few more points beyond 93 to ensure a playoff spot.

[Samson's Flow]

Here's what really matters:

 

After 3 seasons of the new playoff format, we know that 93 points is the bare minimum to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. So the Sabres likely need to accumulate at least 44 points in 35 games, which is roughly 1.25 ppg, just to enter the playoff conversation. A pace of winning 2 out of every 3 games from here on out should suffice. 

 

In my opinion, the top 7 teams look to be already settled: Caps, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Rangers, Canadiens, Senators, and Maple Leafs. So the Sabres will be in a dogfight with 8 other teams for that final spot. The hottest of the 9 during the home stretch will make it in.

 

For what it's worth, I added up the overtime losses in the Eastern Conference from the past 3 seasons. In the first season, there were 165 OTL with 93 points as the minimum for playoff entry. In the second season, there were 175 OTL with 98 points as the minimum. Last season, there were 152 OTL with 93 points as the minimum. This year, there have been 107 OTL with about 58.2% of all Eastern Conference games already played....putting the entire conference on pace for about 184 OTL after a full season....so it's reasonable to assume that the Sabres will need a few more points beyond 93 to ensure a playoff spot.

Good analysis.

 

Your last comment would lead me to believe that playoff entry cut-off would be closer to the 14-15 season where 98 points was the playoff points mark, rather than the other years where 93 points got you in. Gotta keep winning.

[jsb]

Good analysis.

 

Your last comment would lead me to believe that playoff entry cut-off would be closer to the 14-15 season where 98 points was the playoff points mark, rather than the other years where 93 points got you in. Gotta keep winning.

Things usually change as the season moves on but presently the 8th seed (Flyers) are on track for 89 points

I'm discounting Boston because they are on track for 87

[PromoTheRobot]

Here's what really matters:

 

After 3 seasons of the new playoff format, we know that 93 points is the bare minimum to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. So the Sabres likely need to accumulate at least 44 points in 35 games, which is roughly 1.25 ppg, just to enter the playoff conversation. A pace of winning 2 out of every 3 games from here on out should suffice.

 

In my opinion, the top 7 teams look to be already settled: Caps, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Rangers, Canadiens, Senators, and Maple Leafs. So the Sabres will be in a dogfight with 8 other teams for that final spot. The hottest of the 9 during the home stretch will make it in.

 

For what it's worth, I added up the overtime losses in the Eastern Conference from the past 3 seasons. In the first season, there were 165 OTL with 93 points as the minimum for playoff entry. In the second season, there were 175 OTL with 98 points as the minimum. Last season, there were 152 OTL with 93 points as the minimum. This year, there have been 107 OTL with about 58.2% of all Eastern Conference games already played....putting the entire conference on pace for about 184 OTL after a full season....so it's reasonable to assume that the Sabres will need a few more points beyond 93 to ensure a playoff spot.

I don't see how Ottawa and Toronto are locks. There are 3 playoff spots in play right now, not one.

[MattPie]

Things usually change as the season moves on but presently the 8th seed (Flyers) are on track for 89 points

I'm discounting Boston because they are on track for 87

 

If I remember right, 8th place kind of dips in the middle most years but trends up as the bubble teams play harder towards the end.

[jsb]

If I remember right, 8th place kind of dips in the middle most years but trends up as the bubble teams play harder towards the end.

Agreed but so far this year the entire Eastern Conference beside the top 5-7 teams are bubble teams and will Tampa Bay continue to play below their talent level??? They're on track for 82 presently

 

March and April is shaping up to be one wild ride in the EC.

Edited January 25, 2017 by jsb

[Coach55]

The easiest way to think of the playoff race is Wins minus Losses (excluding OT losses) as once the games played get equalized that's where the points will end up. Right now we are +2, which puts us 2 games behind Philly, who is 9th in points but 8th when you adjust for games played. Toronto who is 8th is +8, so they are actually way ahead and Boston who is 7th is +3, so their high rank is a fallacy.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Coach55

[Coach55]

Furthering my thought process, my adjusted standings are as follows:

WSH +22

CBJ +21

PIT +18

MTL +16

OTT +16

NYR +15

TOR +8

PHI +4

---------------

BOS +3

NYI +3

CAR +2

BUF +2

FLA +1

DET +1

TB 0

NJD 0

 

Realistically 9 teams are vying for that 8th spot, barring one of them going on a major run or a collapse by Toronto.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Coach55,

 

It took you almost 4 years to make your first post, which you quickly followed up with a second.

 

Very good contributions and I hope they keep coming.

[Coach55]

I primarily post on TBD. I try not to post, as when I get going it absorbs way too much time. But every so often I like to chime in.

[JohnRobertEichel]

I don't see how Ottawa and Toronto are locks. There are 3 playoff spots in play right now, not one.

 

They're not locks. But I prefaced my statement with "in my opinion" because I think Ottawa and Toronto are playoff-caliber teams, and I don't think we can count on them collapsing to the point that we can realistically leapfrog them.

[nfreeman]

Welcome Coach55!

[Mig22]

Hockeyviz.com has Ottawa and Toronto as 79% and 59% likely to make the playoffs.  That's using a model based on roster performance over the last 24 months (weighted for recency I think).  Toronto is still borderline...Senators less so.

[inkman]

From 2011 red sox wiki:

 

 

After leading the Tampa Bay Rays by nine games in the AL wild card race on September 3 — when their odds of reaching the postseason peaked at 99.6% — the Red Sox lost 18 of their final 24 games.[6] On the last day of the season, September 28, a ninth inning Red Sox blown save loss against the Baltimore Orioles,[7] coupled with an extra inning come from behind victory by the Rays over the Yankees,[8] made the Rays the AL wild card winners, eliminating the Red Sox from postseason contention.

[ubkev]

Best loss in Yankees history.