The ".500" record and playoff race thread

[gregkash]

Yeah I guess Guhle is off limits now. Until the end of the season then of course it absolutely will depend on where the Sabres are at. 

 

I'm okay with leaving Girgenson's open. I think we should keep foligno. Him, Larsson and Gionta are an excellent fourth line in my opinion. 

 

We badly need a  top 6 winger. So I'm thinking someone who might be unprotected will be getting moved sometime soon as a sweetener in something. 

 

AS for 19-18-9 not being over .500. That's 46 Games Played 92 Possible points.

 

47 Points acquired out of 92. 47/92 = .511 

 

.511 > .500 

 

So. stop it. 

[SwampD]

19 wins and 27 loses equals a win percentage of 41.3%

 

.413 < .500

 

You stop it.

Edited January 24, 2017 by SwampD

[nfreeman]

Yeah I guess Guhle is off limits now. Until the end of the season then of course it absolutely will depend on where the Sabres are at. 

 

I'm okay with leaving Girgenson's open. I think we should keep foligno. Him, Larsson and Gionta are an excellent fourth line in my opinion. 

 

We badly need a  top 6 winger. So I'm thinking someone who might be unprotected will be getting moved sometime soon as a sweetener in something. 

 

AS for 19-18-9 not being over .500. That's 46 Games Played 92 Possible points.

 

47 Points acquired out of 92. 47/92 = .511 

 

.511 > .500 

 

So. stop it. 

 

 

When you lose more games than you win, and you end up with 82 points, you miss the playoffs by a mile.  So we can pretend the Sabres are at ".500 points percentage" -- or we can want them to win at least as many games as they lose and at least come close to making the playoffs.

[inkman]

Isn't the real issue with the .500 thing is that each game is technically worth more than 2 points. Occasionally a game is worth 3 points. So .500 would be closer to 2.1 x games played or something. I'm sure people with more time on their hands could figure it out more precisely.

[DarthEbriate]

When you lose more games than you win, and you end up with 82 points, you miss the playoffs by a mile.  So we can pretend the Sabres are at ".500 points percentage" -- or we can want them to win at least as many games as they lose and at least come close to making the playoffs.

^ Yes.

This is hardly an unpopular opinion, but the loser point really is horrible. (I love that the league will tell everyone they're great and how close it is... because it's entertaining, but it's also a joke.) We'll be told our current record of 19-18-9 is over .500 and it simply isn't. And gaining 82 points out of 164 possible points isn't an accurate description of .500  because your opponents have access to another 82 points even if you won the games against them.

 

I tried to explain it to my Dad (not a hockey person because he can't follow the puck). In the NFL or MLB, the wins and losses cancel out (even the ties cancel out). The total record in the league at the end of the season is .500 (NFL is 256 wins and 256 losses, minus any ties). The NHL's loser point works in a way such that... your team can go 41-0-41, undefeated in regulation for a staggering 123 points (President's Cup-worthy). And... theoretically, so could everyone else. In fact, you could have that 41-0-41 record, and still miss the playoffs. In the NFL, it's impossible for every team to go 8-0-8. To sum up, I think his eyes glazed over and he stuck with football.

[MattPie]

How about this: .500 is an arbitrary mark that means nothing. If you like, we should all be worried about getting to .580 in points, regardless of how many wins and "losses"

that adds up to.

 

.500 is the +/- of team records.

[ubkev]

And there's always how one feels immediately seeing the Sabres lose in OT. I don't mean after a minute or two when people tend to say "well, at least we got 1 point." Or even before the OT begins, with "Thank God, we get a much needed point!" I'm talking about the second the puck crosses the line. I won't pretend to answer for a one else, but for me it's always the same reaction. "!!!!"

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

How about this: .500 is an arbitrary mark that means nothing. If you like, we should all be worried about getting to .580 in points, regardless of how many wins and "losses"

that adds up to.

 

.500 is the +/- of team records.

Right, .500 means more in the NFL with 16 games than the NHL with 82 and a points system. 

[jsb]

Here we go for all you numbers people and you know who you are.

Deluca .500 = number of games played divided by your wins

NHL Points .500 = number of games played by the number of points you have

 

THE JSB .500 is now in effect

Number of points so far this season league wide 1605

Number of games played league wide..................712

Divide the first number by the second you get 2.25421xxxxxxxx

Divide that number by 2 to get .500 

Multiply the number of games you've played by Sabres 46

Answer rounded off is 52 points. 

 

The Sabres are 5 points under the JSB .500  :blink: 

 

 

 

Any questions see my accountant!!!!  :P

[pi2000]

Here we go for all you numbers people and you know who you are.

Deluca .500 = number of games played divided by your wins

NHL Points .500 = number of games played by the number of points you have

 

THE JSB .500 is now in effect

Number of points so far this season league wide 1605

Number of games played league wide..................712

Divide the first number by the second you get 2.25421xxxxxxxx

Divide that number by 2 to get .500 

Multiply the number of games you've played by Sabres 46

Answer rounded off is 52 points. 

 

The Sabres are 5 points under the JSB .500  :blink: 

 

 

 

Any questions see my accountant!!!!  :P

 

I like the JSB .500 idea.   Nicely done.

 

Does JSB .500 guarantee a playoff spot?

[Samson's Flow]

Here we go for all you numbers people and you know who you are.

Deluca .500 = number of games played divided by your wins

NHL Points .500 = number of games played by the number of points you have

 

THE JSB .500 is now in effect

Number of points so far this season league wide 1605

Number of games played league wide..................712

Divide the first number by the second you get 2.25421xxxxxxxx

Divide that number by 2 to get .500 

Multiply the number of games you've played by Sabres 46

Answer rounded off is 52 points. 

 

The Sabres are 5 points under the JSB .500  :blink: 

 

 

 

Any questions see my accountant!!!!  :P

I support the JSB .500

 

I only worry that you have to recalculate each time we ask you for it. I would suspect if you were over 50% of possible points available then you would have a strong likelihood of making the playoffs but it wouldn't be guaranteed. (It depends on the points mix of your team (i.e. which teams you earned your 50%+ of points against)

[MattPie]

I like the JSB .500 idea.   Nicely done.

 

Does JSB .500 guarantee a playoff spot?

 

I think it's pretty close. If my math is right, that 52 points works out to 92.7 points for the season, so right around playoffs. Guarantee is a strong word, if the East beats up the West all season, you might need 96 to make it in the east from the points gained from West teams.

[Taro T]

I support the JSB .500

 

I only worry that you have to recalculate each time we ask you for it. I would suspect if you were over 50% of possible points available then you would have a strong likelihood of making the playoffs but it wouldn't be guaranteed. (It depends on the points mix of your team (i.e. which teams you earned your 50%+ of points against)

You'd actually need to be ~4 points over the JSB 0.500 to get in. But if you're at it w/ 10 games to go, you should be able to "play your way in." Sitting at the NHL 0.500 after 72 games; say hello to your lottery #'s, 'cause you AREN'T getting into the playoffs.

[pi2000]

 

I think it's pretty close. If my math is right, that 52 points works out to 92.7 points for the season, so right around playoffs. Guarantee is a strong word, if the East beats up the West all season, you might need 96 to make it in the east from the points gained from West teams.

 

 

So maybe we need to add a fudge factor into the equation?

 

Number of points so far this season league wide 1605

Number of games played league wide..................712

Divide the first number by the second you get 2.25421xxxxxxxx

*Multiply by a fudge factor of 1.05 to get 2.37

Divide that number by 2 to get .500 = 1.183

Multiply the number of games you've played by Sabres 46

Answer rounded off is 54 points. 

 

That's a 97 point pace.   96 points was the final wildcard spot in the East last season. 

 

So BUF is currently 7 points behind that pace... 3.5 games.  

[Doohicksie]

JSB .500 applied to last year's points would have netted 1.11 points per game average or 91 points.  Not good enough for playoffs in the EC (Philly had 96 to make the last wildcard; Detroit had 93 in the division), but would have earned a playoff spot in the West (Minnesota made it with 87).

 

Maybe the conclusion is that the JSB .500 is *about* the minimum needed to get to the playoffs, but things are just too weird to have an absolute benchmark (even one that is adjusted for amount of loser points out there).

 

This year there are even more loser points in play so far.  Based on JSB's calculation, the JSB .500 is a point higher than it was last year (so probably a point harder to get into the playoffs). 

 

Bottom line:  If the Sabres are gonna make the playoffs, they better start winning.

[nfreeman]

OK -- I thought it would make sense to consolidate the various posts on this topic into one thread.

 

I've said a number of times that the "NHL .500" concept is silly, as it characterizes teams who have lost many more games than they've won, and are well out of the playoff race, as ".500" teams. 

 

As for the playoff race -- here's how I look at it:  the concept that the Sabres are "5 points out of the wild card spot with 2 games in hand" is about as meaningless as the "NHL .500."  This is because there are a bunch of teams striving for that last playoff spot, and a number of them aren't going to stand still while the Sabres reel off a winning streak (hah!) and catch them.

 

I think the right way to think about it is that the Sabres are chasing a playoff spot, not a particular team, and the spot is like a car ahead of the Sabres' car on the highway.  The spot is advancing down the highway at a rate of about 1.5 points per game.  So, if the Sabres win 2 in a row, they've "advanced" 4 points while the spot has advanced 3 points -- so the Sabres have gotten 1 point closer to a playoff spot.

 

That means, of course, that if the Sabres are currently 5 points out of the playoffs, they'd need to rip off 10 wins in a row to get into playoff position. 

 

It's rough justice, I know (and the playoff car is probably advancing at a rate closer to 1.3 points per game, not 1.5), but I am pretty confident that if the Sabres were to win, say, 5 out of 6, they'd still be 2-3 points out of the playoffs.

 

Let's see how it goes.

[inkman]

Why are we trying to determine if .500 gets you into the playoffs?

[Taro T]

Why are we trying to determine if .500 gets you into the playoffs?

Because we're Seahawks fans circa 2010-ish (or whenever the frig they ended up winning their division @ 7-9? :unsure:

 

For a long time, there's been an easy rule of thumb - win 6 of every 10 games (or take the equivalent points - 12 of 20) & end up at 96 through 80 games & you're in. Absolute worst case, you might need to split games 81 & 82 to get to 98.

[Sabel79]

Why are we trying to determine if .500 gets you into the playoffs?

Woah, slow down there. We haven't agreed on what .500 is yet.

[MattPie]

I'll repeat: .500 is the +/- of team records. Traditional but meaningless. We're really talking about .580 points percentage (points / games played). That'll give you a really good chance of being in the playoffs.

 

Any measure that deals with games won and lost is useless, there's one measure the NHL uses, and that's points.

Edited January 24, 2017 by MattPie

[SwampD]

Last year, collectively, NHL teams got about 55% of the points available to them.

 

So, maybe it should be called the NHL .550

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Here we go for all you numbers people and you know who you are.

Deluca .500 = number of games played divided by your wins

NHL Points .500 = number of games played by the number of points you have

 

THE JSB .500 is now in effect

Number of points so far this season league wide 1605

Number of games played league wide..................712

Divide the first number by the second you get 2.25421xxxxxxxx

Divide that number by 2 to get .500 

Multiply the number of games you've played by Sabres 46

Answer rounded off is 52 points. 

 

The Sabres are 5 points under the JSB .500  :blink: 

 

 

 

Any questions see my accountant!!!!  :P

 

I'm glad I'm not your accountant ...  ;)

[Eleven]

Yeah I guess Guhle is off limits now. Until the end of the season then of course it absolutely will depend on where the Sabres are at. 

 

I'm okay with leaving Girgenson's open. I think we should keep foligno. Him, Larsson and Gionta are an excellent fourth line in my opinion. 

 

We badly need a  top 6 winger. So I'm thinking someone who might be unprotected will be getting moved sometime soon as a sweetener in something. 

 

AS for 19-18-9 not being over .500. That's 46 Games Played 92 Possible points.

 

47 Points acquired out of 92. 47/92 = .511 

 

.511 > .500 

 

So. stop it. 

 

What are you, some sort of comedian?

[That Aud Smell]

I'll stick with the DeLuca .500.

 

And I will categorically reject the idea that getting half of the available points is a goal, measure of success, or anything other than a byproduct of a screwball scoring system imposed by the rodent who serves as commissioner.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

All these numbers flying around ...  :unsure:

 

Typically a team needs in the 95 - 98 point range to make the playoffs.  This season does not look much different.

 

So, the Sabres currently sit at 47 points after 46 games.  There are 36 games left for a total of 72 available points.

 

To have a shot the Sabres will need to gain 49 - 50 points of those 72 available.  A 68, or 69, %age of points available.  Not impossible, but not likely either.