Lehner is NOT a starter

[dudacek]

If, after his rookie playoff run, Dryden faced 40+ shots more than a dozen times in his career, it would be shocking.

(Perhaps that was the angle you were going for. If so, as Emily used to say, nevermind.)

Lehner has faced more rubber in seven games than Ken Dryden would face in a month.

And I have to stop using '70s references if even the other old guys don't get them. ????

Edited February 15, 2017 by dudacek

[TheAud]

*unsustainable 

 

I'm also convinced ~10 of the saves he makes each game are off of chances that he generates himself through lack of puck control.

 

He'd probably be playing a better all-around game even if his SV% was a little lower.  Counter-intuitive, but that's what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. 

 

Sabres allowing .5621 shots per minute in net with Lehner, allowing .5671 shots per minute with Nilsson in net. 

Based on the incremental 10 shots Lehner is supposedly giving up per game due to rebound control, would you have expected this to be reversed, and much more so?

[darksabre]

Sabres allowing .5621 shots per minute in net with Lehner, allowing .5671 shots per minute with Nilsson in net. 

Based on the incremental 10 shots Lehner is supposedly giving up per game due to rebound control, would you have expected this to be reversed, and much more so?

You can't really reverse something that isn't appreciably different. 33 v 34 shots per 60? There's nothing there.

 

Either way, I'm not surprised that their shots faced totals look about the same. Most teams generate that level of shots regardless of where those shots come from.

 

It's the way in which those shots come that needs to be broken out. I suspect Lehner would face a disproportionate number of shots from in close on second opportunities compared to Nilsson who I think sees more shots from the outside that don't lead to second opportunities. 

 

I don't have the data to support this, nor do I know where to find that data. It's just what I see. 

[TheAud]

You can't really reverse something that isn't appreciably different. 33 v 34 shots per 60? There's nothing there.

 

Either way, I'm not surprised that their shots faced totals look about the same. Most teams generate that level of shots regardless of where those shots come from.

 

It's the way in which those shots come that needs to be broken out. I suspect Lehner would face a disproportionate number of shots from in close on second opportunities compared to Nilsson who I think sees more shots from the outside that don't lead to second opportunities. 

 

I don't have the data to support this, nor do I know where to find that data. It's just what I see. 

I agree, not much difference. To me, that's 'what's there', I was looking for a difference and there is none. 

 

Eyeball test matters so that's why I am trying to find data to validate. I see it differently than you but am open to another viewpoint with confirming data. I did see some analysis (although I don't know about the veracity of the underlying data) awhile back that said Lehner was below average in save % in the 'tougher save' areas and had a disproportionate number of shots taken from 'easier save' areas, but I can't find that right now.  That would be contrary to your thinking on this topic. I need to find that link...

 

However I did find some numbers on face-offs. With Lehner in net the Sabres have 0.3569 defensive zone face-offs per minute. With Nilsson it's 0.2865. That is quite a difference. That could be interpreted different ways though. 

[darksabre]

I agree, not much difference. To me, that's 'what's there', I was looking for a difference and there is none. 

 

Eyeball test matters so that's why I am trying to find data to validate. I see it differently than you but am open to another viewpoint with confirming data. I did see some analysis (although I don't know about the veracity of the underlying data) awhile back that said Lehner was below average in save % in the 'tougher save' areas and had a disproportionate number of shots taken from 'easier save' areas, but I can't find that right now.  That would be contrary to your thinking on this topic. I need to find that link...

 

However I did find some numbers on face-offs. With Lehner in net the Sabres have 0.3569 defensive zone face-offs per minute. With Nilsson it's 0.2865. That is quite a difference. That could be interpreted different ways though. 

I'd have to see those numbers in some kind of context, but they might be worth exploring. 

[mphs mike]

Lehner has faced more rubber in seven games than Ken Dryden would face in a month.

And I have to stop using '70s references if even the other old guys don't get them.

 

I think I'd prefer Ken Dryden

[nfreeman]

Lehner has faced more rubber in seven games than Ken Dryden would face in a month.

And I have to stop using '70s references if even the other old guys don't get them.

 

I think these references are too recent.  Where is Howie Morenz?  Elmer Lach?  Eddie Shore?

 

Old time hockey, eh?

[Sabel79]

I think these references are too recent.  Where is Howie Morenz?  Elmer Lach?  Eddie Shore?

 

Old time hockey, eh?

Piss on Eddie Shore...

[Taro T]

Lehner has faced more rubber in seven games than Ken Dryden would face in a month.

And I have to stop using '70s references if even the other old guys don't get them.

Thus the "nevermind." ;)

 

After my 1st sentence was already typed out realized you were probably going the other way.

 

Just a LITTLE slow on the uptake. :doh:

[Scottysabres]

Can the thread title now be changed to "Lehner is a starter, until he's not again"?

[Claude Balls]

What I like is that Lehner is already acting like a leader at his young age. This kid ain't scared to tell it like it is. He has the potential to be something special IMO. Want to see him with more than two good defenseman in front of him.

[That Aud Smell]

Saw it Tweetered: Physical skill sets of NHL goalies all fairly similar. The main difference between those who become reliable #1's (or better) is mental. Whether you can maintain a level, come to each game with a fresh and new focus, etc.

 

Makes sense.

 

Oh, the writer (Davis?) also added that Lehner's now shown he _can_ do it, now it's a question of whether he will, over time.

[Norcal]

Can anyone tell me where to find stats on high danger saves and save percentage, or something similiar? I saw that it as part of Corsi stats but couldn't find any actual statistics.

[TrueBlueGED]

Can anyone tell me where to find stats on high danger saves and save percentage, or something similiar? I saw that it as part of Corsi stats but couldn't find any actual statistics.

corsica.hockey

[That Aud Smell]

Shutout.

 

The guy's been mostly good of late. Very good, even.

[Meathead]

I think these references are too recent.  Where is Howie Morenz?  Elmer Lach?  Eddie Shore?

 

Old time hockey, eh?

 

one word:

 

gump worsley

Can the thread title now be changed to "Lehner is a starter, until he's not again"?

 

lol. rickshaw made the op then disappeared off the face of the earth. probably to hide his shame

[GASabresIUFAN]

Looks like a starting goalie lately.

 

Just saying!

[Norcal]

corsica.hockey

thanks

[PromoTheRobot]

Looks like a starting goalie lately.

 

Just saying!

I've been a harsh Lehner critic and I have to say he's been solid of late. I like my crow batter-dipped.

[TheAud]

Looks like a starting goalie lately.

 

Just saying!

I don't know. He's only tied for 3rd in save % in the NHL. 

Get into the top 2 and then we're talking. 

[JJFIVEOH]

Can we package him with Kane and trade him? Their values are high so this is the time to trade them.

[pi2000]

Can we package him with Kane and trade him? Their values are high so this is the time to trade them.

That Eichel guy has pretty good value too, maybe we can get Zadorov back.

[JJFIVEOH]

That Eichel guy has pretty good value too, maybe we can get Zadorov back.

 

Need to start loading up on draft picks, prepare for the future. 

[Taro T]

one word:

 

gump worsley

 

lol. rickshaw made the op then disappeared off the face of the earth. probably to hide his shame

Rick has been a very good poster through the years but hasn't posted here much lately.

 

Quite certain there is no shame on his part for providing his take on the subject. He shouldn't be ashamed for/ of his post. Your take on your quoted post on the other hand ...

[Scottysabres]

Trade Kulikov 4.33 aav, UFA, Lehner 2.23, RFA, Gorges 3.90 AAV (50% retained), 1 yr, Minnesota 2nd, Washington 3rd to Pittsburg for Maatta 4.083,333 aav, 5 yrs, Fluery 5.75 aav, 2 yrs and Pittsburg 1st.

 

Keep Fluery exposed at expansion draft, protect Ullmark. We give them a fresh start at controlling net minder cost with a decent starter, and a defensive top 4 with a depth defender for both this seasons playoff run.

We have the room to incur the 1.49 mil in added aav.

 

I know Lehner won't be moved, but this deal looks close in value given the UFA status, depth positioning, Pittsburg cup run scenario and Expansion draft situation. That Pittsburg 1st could be used in another deal or pick it l.

 

AMD if you notice, Kane is not involved....and this type of deal puts Ullmark in the spot light.

Edited February 17, 2017 by Lucky E