Expansion Draft -- Sabres moves and speculation

[dudacek]

As I said earlier, I may have a bug.

 

I got Reinhart, Kane and Baley playing 39 minutes together, almost all of them the 6 games between game 37 and 42. During those 39 minutes, Sam scored zero points, together, 1 goal was scored.

Interesting. This timing sounds right. I have no idea about points scored as a line, just that I liked the eye test.

The streak where Sam played centre and put up points feels like it was around the same time.

But it may not have been exclusively centre, and the points may have come on the PP.

Hell, I may be guilty of confirmation bias, or of conflating two different things into one.

[TrueBlueGED]

Ok, you can't throw out an outrageous number and then completely back off it by saying small sample size because it doesn't fit your original point.

Maybe, but I don't think so.  True is right that it was while Eichel and Kane were hurt and it happened earlyish in the season.  That's exactly when those dates where.  If anyone has the exact games it would be appreciated.  But I was basing it off these two articles.

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/10/sabres-reinhart-center.html

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2016/10/23/13372930/sabres-sam-reinhart-moving-center-moulson-top-line

 

Those would put the date of first game at October 25th.  Which makes sense because the team had like 5 or 6 days off in between so DD could get him practice time at C.

 

I'm not backing off the point: you have the wrong window. In fact, I think we both have the wrong window. Dudacek is right that Sams' center stretch came between Bailey and Kane, but Bailey wasn't a regular in the lineup until the end of December. 

 

 

But the period I'm talking about wasn't in October, it was in December.

Kane was back and playing well.

 

 

Correct -- it was closer to mid-season, Reino was centering Kane and Bailey/other winger, that line was very effective and it sure looked like Reino is a natural center.

 

And while you are also correct that I generally have been a bit lukewarm on Reino, to be clear, my posts last night about trading Reino for Vatanen were not meant to advocate for that move. I was just attempting to interpret Howie's silence on Reino, plus free associating with the Sabres' need for a defenseman, the high market price for defensemen and the availability of Vatanen.

 

I want to see what a good coach can do with Reino. But I wouldn't be shocked if he is traded for a defenseman.

 

Have I mentioned recently I'm terrible with dates? :lol:

Interesting. This timing sounds right. I have no idea about points scored as a line, just that I liked the eye test.

The streak where Sam played centre and put up points feels like it was around the same time.

But it may not have been exclusively centre, and the points may have come on the PP.

Hell, I may be guilty of confirmation bias, or of conflating two different things into one.

 

We need Flagg. I know he knows this. FLAGG STOP BEING A RESPONSIBLE PERSON AND HELP US ON AN INTERNET FORUM!!!

[dudacek]

Sam put up 20 points in 22 games from game 19 to game 40.

[Derrico]

Sam put up 20 points in 22 games from game 19 to game 40.

Exactly.  When we was a winger for 90% of that stretch.

[LGR4GM]

Wasn't Kane garbage until about January? Am I remembering that wrong?

[Derrico]

I'm not backing off the point: you have the wrong window. In fact, I think we both have the wrong window. Dudacek is right that Sams' center stretch came between Bailey and Kane, but Bailey wasn't a regular in the lineup until the end of December. 

 

To be fair I was partly working off your window.  Also, even if he did perform well for a few games between Kane and Bailey does that mean we forget the first stretch of games?  I would love to see the exact games and numbers during that stretch, whenever it was.  Come on Flagg!

[LGR4GM]

To be fair I was partly working off your window.  Also, even if he did perform well for a few games between Kane and Bailey does that mean we forget the first stretch of games?  I would love to see the exact games and numbers during that stretch, whenever it was.  Come on Flagg!

Depends on how long you think it should take him to learn the position at the NHL level? 

[Lanny]

Wasn't Kane garbage until about January? Am I remembering that wrong?

Started scoring in December

[LGR4GM]

Started scoring in December

When in December? 

[TheAud]

I do not, but I know others here will corroborate. It was early-ish in the season when Eichel was out and O'Reilly was hobbled/out.

 

 

 

It's the combination of SV% and SH% when a player (or team) is on the ice. Over time it regresses hard towards 100. Of course some teams have true talent to be at like 102 sustained, and others are poop and 96 or whatever, but it's just a nice tool to spot outliers due for regression when taking into account the players/team. When looking at Jack and Sam, I don't think they're a 98 (see: below average) tandem.

 

PDO's vary over time and there is an element of randomness to them for any given player. When I see a bizarre looking +/- that is being used to make the point that a player is either good or bad (supported by the +/-) if I look at PDO I often see that they had a particularly lucky or unlucky year which at least partially explains why the +/- is misleading. 

[Derrico]

When in December? 

Here's his game log.  Point per game for 4 games in the middle but then went a bit quiet to end the month. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/5251/evander-kane

[Lanny]

When in December? 

First goal was Dec 3 http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/5251/evander-kane

[dudacek]

Exactly. When we was a winger for 90% of that stretch.

I'm not certain about that.

I am certain he was a wing for the final 21 games, when he scored 9 points.????

Edited June 16, 2017 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

Wasn't Kane garbage until about January? Am I remembering that wrong?

 

He was smoldering poop in November because he came back from the injury too soon and couldn't play. He was on fire starting in December.

 

 

To be fair I was partly working off your window.  Also, even if he did perform well for a few games between Kane and Bailey does that mean we forget the first stretch of games?  I would love to see the exact games and numbers during that stretch, whenever it was.  Come on Flagg!

 

Oh, I know...like I said, I'm really bad with dates. I legitimately have to do the math to remember what year my parents were born :lol:

 

I don't think we should ignore any stretch where he played, especially when we're dealing with a sample that could easily be a blip rather than a trend, but I do think context is important to consider. As Liger has said, and I think you agree, I don't think moving Sam to center is a switch to flip where he'll instantly fulfill his draft promise--there's learning to be done. I also think who he is playing with is really important. We all know that Sam isn't the most fleet of foot out there (another contributor to the learning curve at center, IMO), so he needs speed on his wings that he can distribute to. He was dominant in the WJC because Domi and Duclair could skate like the wind, and maximized what Samson did well. I wouldn't expect Samson to thrive at center between, say, Foligno and Gionta. His best stretch came with Kane on one side, and at least part of it with Bailey on the other. Yes, it's a tiny sample, but the stats matched the eye test which matched the scouting and his junior career, which is why some of us are more comfortable projecting that performance out. 

 

The fact we were realistically dead in the water with respect to the playoffs for the entire season (last year too, really), and Samson only got such limited time at center, is part of my disdain for Bylsma. Wouldn't it be nice if we had 60 games to talk about, rather than 15?

PDO's vary over time and there is an element of randomness to them for any given player. When I see a bizarre looking +/- that is being used to make the point that a player is either good or bad (supported by the +/-) if I look at PDO I often see that they had a particularly lucky or unlucky year which at least partially explains why the +/- is misleading. 

 

Yea, for sure. I'm looking at you, Marcus Foligno, shooting 40% in your first stretch of NHL games while scoring off your butt!

[dudacek]

Speaking of bias, I would bet the trade Sam crew is putting a lot more weight on the final quarter of the season when he was 37-point player, and the torches crew is putting a lot more weight in the 70-point second quarter.

[Derrico]

Fair points True.  Oh I couldn't stand DD either.  Why the heck were they not moving him to centre when the playoffs were out of reach? 

 

To dudacek can I just say that after all these points I don't want to trade Sam.  I think he's a good to very good player that could help us win the ultimate goal.  But our D is horrendous (maybe House changes some of that) but you have to give to get and I don't think Sam is untouchable.  I also think he's an extremely effective winger even at this point in his career and he's a big part of our #1 PP.  I'm not giving him away by any means.  I think it was Randal that said he would trade him for a Hedman type but that probably won't happen based on the market for top D.  I'm probably in that same camp.

[TrueBlueGED]

Speaking of bias, I would bet the trade Sam crew is putting a lot more weight on the final quarter of the season when he was 37-point player, and the torches crew is putting a lot more weight in the 70-point second quarter.

 

Naturally. I also think there's a lot of buyer's remorse and #becausebuffalo because Draisaitl had a great year and looked like a total stud in the playoffs.

 

I keep going back to comparisons with players who have a similar skill set, and their development track: guys who don't have a standout physical trait, but rely on hockey sense and passing to make their impact. Sam had more points as a rookie than Henrik Sedin did in any of his first four seasons. O'Reilly didn't score more than 26 points until his 3rd season. Scheifele didn't break the 50 point barrier until his 3rd season. Neither did Joe freaking Thornton. And so on.

[Derrico]

Naturally. I also think there's a lot of buyer's remorse and #becausebuffalo because Draisaitl had a great year and looked like a total stud in the playoffs.

 

True, your probably my favorite poster on this site.  But this is straw man.  Who on this board actually wants to trade Sam just to trade him or for any reason listed above.

 

It sometimes feels like a crime if you even consider the possibility of trying to trade Sam for D help or suggest we don't screw with him being what he is right now: a high end winger.

[WildCard]

Naturally. I also think there's a lot of buyer's remorse and #becausebuffalo because Draisaitl had a great year and looked like a total stud in the playoffs.

 

I keep going back to comparisons with players who have a similar skill set, and their development track: guys who don't have a standout physical trait, but rely on hockey sense and passing to make their impact. Sam had more points as a rookie than Henrik Sedin did in any of his first four seasons. O'Reilly didn't score more than 26 points until his 3rd season. Scheifele didn't break the 50 point barrier until his 3rd season. Neither did Joe freaking Thornton. And so on.

Trading Reinhart would be a massive mistake, especially when we can and should already trade Kane to accomplish a somewhat similar deal. 

[Derrico]

Trading Reinhart would be a massive mistake, especially when we can and should already trade Kane to accomplish a somewhat similar deal. 

No chance you get a similar return.

[WildCard]

No chance you get a similar return.

That's why I said 'somewhat' ;)

 

Honestly I don't think Reinhart gets everyone the moon and the stars people think he would if we traded him. And I think Kane + can get you the same exact thing, and I don't think that + is a whole lot

[TrueBlueGED]

True, your probably my favorite poster on this site.  But this is straw man.  Who on this board actually wants to trade Sam just to trade him or for any reason listed above.

 

It sometimes feels like a crime if you even consider the possibility of trying to trade Sam for D help or suggest we don't screw with him being what he is right now: a high end winger.

 

I didn't mean to imply people want to trade him for this reason, just that I think it plays into the general lack of enthusiasm for his game.

That's why I said 'somewhat' ;)

 

Honestly I don't think Reinhart gets everyone the moon and the stars people think he would if we traded him. And I think Kane + can get you the same exact thing, and I don't think that + is a whole lot

 

I think both Kane and Reinhart have lower trade value than we'd like, and fans of either will be bitterly disappointed by the return should they be moved.

[dudacek]

Henrik Sedin remains my favourite Sam comparable.

[WildCard]

I think both Kane and Reinhart have lower trade value than we'd like, and fans of either will be bitterly disappointed by the return should they be moved.

Naturally, but I'd bet a lot that that disappointment would be much higher on Reinhart's return than Kane.

[TrueBlueGED]

Naturally, but I'd bet a lot that that disappointment would be much higher on Reinhart's return than Kane.

 

Interesting thought experiment--what would people hate more: Kane-Tanev, or Reinhart-Tanev?