Expansion Draft -- Sabres moves and speculation

[LGR4GM]

Are you proposing we move Sam to 3rd line centre? Move Larsson or Girgs down to the 4th line?  Or do you move ROR to wing? 

I move ROR to wing. 

ROR - Eichel - ???

???/Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Foligno - Larsson - ???

 

Question marks are there because idk who will be in that spot. 

I propose Reinhart to 3C, with a relatively equal distribution of minutes for the top three lines. Girgs to wing, Larsson at 4C. O'Reilly to wing could work, but I'm interested in creating havoc for the other team by forcing them to try to match up against three threatening lines, which I don't think many teams can do.

I think that Foligno - Larsson - Bailey/Baptiste could produce some good scoring in a 15min a night role on the 3rd line. 

[Eleven]

I propose Reinhart to 3C, with a relatively equal distribution of minutes for the top three lines. Girgs to wing, Larsson at 4C. O'Reilly to wing could work, but I'm interested in creating havoc for the other team by forcing them to try to match up against three threatening lines, which I don't think many teams can do.

 

This absolutely should happen.

I move ROR to wing. 

ROR - Eichel - ???

???/Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Foligno - Larsson - ???

 

Question marks are there because idk who will be in that spot. 

I think that Foligno - Larsson - Bailey/Baptiste could produce some good scoring in a 15min a night role on the 3rd line. 

 

That's a perfect fourth line on a winning team.

[Derrico]

I propose Reinhart to 3C, with a relatively equal distribution of minutes for the top three lines. Girgs to wing, Larsson at 4C. O'Reilly to wing could work, but I'm interested in creating havoc for the other team by forcing them to try to match up against three threatening lines, which I don't think many teams can do.

 

 

I move ROR to wing. 

ROR - Eichel - ???

???/Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Foligno - Larsson - ???

 

Question marks are there because idk who will be in that spot. 

I think that Foligno - Larsson - Bailey/Baptiste could produce some good scoring in a 15min a night role on the 3rd line. 

I like these thoughts.  But I love ROR at centre.  He wins draws, he's a great player.  Eichel is obvious.  So to me he would have to be 3C and I'm not sure he will work his magic nearly as well feeding the puck to Girgs and Foligno.

[LGR4GM]

I think ROR can still take draws for Eichel. Teach Eichel and use Eichel if ROR gets tossed out. 

[Derrico]

I don't mean to derail the intent of this thread but I think there will be a time for Reinhart at C but not sure it's today. 

 

Once Nylander arrives if/when Baily and Baptiste can prove to be competent wingers, that's when Reinhart should be C IMO.  Didn't he get his own line for around 10 games last season (don't miss DD constant line juggling) and he didn't really preform like many thought he would?  Reinhart's big attribute is his smarts and feeding guys that are open.  I think for him to succeed he really needs to play with skilled guys like Eichel and ROR who know how to get open and dictate the play.  That's why I think I'm in the very minute minority saying I'm 'fine' with him playing wing and using his smarts to set up our finishers.  Two or three years down the road?  Sure, I'd love to see him in the middle.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't mean to derail the intent of this thread but I think there will be a time for Reinhart at C but not sure it's today.

 

Once Nylander arrives if/when Baily and Baptiste can prove to be competent wingers, that's when Reinhart should be C IMO. Didn't he get his own line for around 10 games last season (don't miss DD constant line juggling) and he didn't really preform like many thought he would? Reinhart's big attribute is his smarts and feeding guys that are open. I think for him to succeed he really needs to play with skilled guys like Eichel and ROR who know how to get open and dictate the play. That's why I think I'm in the very minute minority saying I'm 'fine' with him playing wing and using his smarts to set up our finishers. Two or three years down the road? Sure, I'd love to see him in the middle.

The opposite: he excelled. He had like 13 points in 14 games and passed the eye test better than at any point.

 

And I don't think waiting 2-3 years to move him to center is a viable plan. He'd be a 4th-5th year pro...is there any precedent for a winger to center position change that far into a career? Secondly, whenever the swap happens, there are going to be growing pains. In 2-3 years when we're trying to win Cups, do we really want a core player going through those growing pains?

[rakish]

Eichel scored less (even strength P/60) with Reinhart than most anyone.

 

Reinhart scored less with Eichel than most anyone.

 

Why Bylsma kept them together so long, I don't know

[LGR4GM]

Eichel scored less (even strength P/60) with Reinhart than most anyone.

 

Reinhart scored less with Eichel than most anyone.

 

Why Bylsma kept them together so long, I don't know

Because Bylsma was not a good coach. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Eichel scored less (even strength P/60) with Reinhart than most anyone.

 

Reinhart scored less with Eichel than most anyone.

 

Why Bylsma kept them together so long, I don't know

 

 

Because Bylsma was not a good coach. 

 

While I think the magic Sam and Jack had together certainly dried up relative to the way it started, and Bylsma should have split them up, I don't think this is entirely fair. Eichel's GF/60 went up from 2.22 to 2.41 with Reinhart, his CF/60 went up from 50.86 to 58.42, CA/60 down from 64.58 to 58.42, for a net increase in CF% from 44 to 50. 

 

Edit: That was with a PDO together of 98.1, while their PDO apart was 100.5 for Jack and 100.3 for Sam...so you'd expect their raw point totals together to uptick over time.

 

Edit 2: upon further review, it appears the PDO drop together was due to SV%, not SH%. So you'd expect their GF% to get better, but not total goals/point. My bad for the hasty work.

Edited June 16, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[Derrico]

The opposite: he excelled. He had like 13 points in 14 games and passed the eye test better than at any point.

 

And I don't think waiting 2-3 years to move him to center is a viable plan. He'd be a 4th-5th year pro...is there any precedent for a winger to center position change that far into a career? Secondly, whenever the swap happens, there are going to be growing pains. In 2-3 years when we're trying to win Cups, do we really want a core player going through those growing pains?

Do you have a link for this.  I don't recall this at all.  However the season made me drink more then usual so I easily could be wrong.

[LGR4GM]

While I think the magic Sam and Jack had together certainly dried up relative to the way it started, and Bylsma should have split them up, I don't think this is entirely fair. Eichel's GF/60 went up from 2.22 to 2.41 with Reinhart, his CF/60 went up from 50.86 to 58.42, CA/60 down from 64.58 to 58.42, for a net increase in CF% from 44 to 50. 

 

Edit: That was with a PDO together of 98.1, while their PDO apart was 100.5 for Jack and 100.3 for Sam...so you'd expect their raw point totals together to uptick over time.

 

Edit 2: upon further review, it appears the PDO drop together was due to SV%, not SH%. So you'd expect their GF% to get better, but not total goals/point. My bad for the hasty work.

Can you explain PDO? I don't fully understand it. 

[Derrico]

As for Reinhart playing centre last year.  There are news articles on October 23 and 24 saying he was moving to centre.  First game was October 25.

 

I can't recall how long he played there but over the next 10 game logs he recorded a total of 2 goals and 2 assists.  Of which 1 goal and 1 assist came on the PP.

 

Therefore, his 10 games at centre resulted in 1 goal and 1 assist of even strength play.  Not sure where your numbers are coming from?

 

Edit:  If you go 14 games (again don't recall the number) he added one more PP goal in that span.

 

So 14 games at centre resulted in 1 goal and 1 assist at even strength.

Edited June 16, 2017 by Derrico

[rakish]

While I think the magic Sam and Jack had together certainly dried up relative to the way it started, and Bylsma should have split them up, I don't think this is entirely fair. Eichel's GF/60 went up from 2.22 to 2.41 with Reinhart, his CF/60 went up from 50.86 to 58.42, CA/60 down from 64.58 to 58.42, for a net increase in CF% from 44 to 50. 

 

Edit: That was with a PDO together of 98.1, while their PDO apart was 100.5 for Jack and 100.3 for Sam...so you'd expect their raw point totals together to uptick over time.

 

Edit 2: upon further review, it appears the PDO drop together was due to SV%, not SH%. So you'd expect their GF% to get better, but not total goals/point. My bad for the hasty work.

 

I don't have anything close to these numbers, I might have a bug

 

edit: You're using Sam's website, aren't you?

 

edit: I have Eichel with 811 even strength minutes, 28 points, 2.07/60

I have Eichel, with Reinhart, 453 ES minutes, 12 points,  1.59/60

Edited June 16, 2017 by rakish

[TrueBlueGED]

Do you have a link for this.  I don't recall this at all.  However the season made me drink more then usual so I easily could be wrong.

 

I do not, but I know others here will corroborate. It was early-ish in the season when Eichel was out and O'Reilly was hobbled/out.

 

 

Can you explain PDO? I don't fully understand it. 

 

It's the combination of SV% and SH% when a player (or team) is on the ice. Over time it regresses hard towards 100. Of course some teams have true talent to be at like 102 sustained, and others are poop and 96 or whatever, but it's just a nice tool to spot outliers due for regression when taking into account the players/team. When looking at Jack and Sam, I don't think they're a 98 (see: below average) tandem.

[Derrico]

I do not, but I know others here will corroborate. It was early-ish in the season when Eichel was out and O'Reilly was hobbled/out.

 

 

 

It's the combination of SV% and SH% when a player (or team) is on the ice. Over time it regresses hard towards 100. Of course some teams have true talent to be at like 102 sustained, and others are poop and 96 or whatever, but it's just a nice tool to spot outliers due for regression when taking into account the players/team. When looking at Jack and Sam, I don't think they're a 98 (see: below average) tandem.

I found it along with the stats.  See my post above.

 

Just because you wanted him to have those numbers doesn't mean he actually did :P

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't have anything close to these numbers, I might have a bug

 

Maybe not. Your post mentioned points, and I brought up goals. Perhaps that's the issue?

 

Edit: I got my numbers from https://puckalytics.com/#/

I found it along with the stats.  See my post above.

 

Just because you wanted him to have those numbers doesn't mean he actually did :P

 

I wasn't talking about only even strength points, I was looking at total points. Need Flagg here, he probably has the exact date range.

Edited June 16, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[Derrico]

Maybe not. Your post mentioned points, and I brought up goals. Perhaps that's the issue?

 

Edit: I got my numbers from https://puckalytics.com/#/

 

I wasn't talking about only even strength points, I was looking at total points. Need Flagg here, he probably has the exact date range.

Isn't even strength points more indicative of his play at centre?  Even still, that's only 5 points in 14 games.  Far cry from 13 :P

Edited June 16, 2017 by Derrico

[dudacek]

Dont think you have the right stretch of games Derrico.

I've done the research before and from my memory,what Blue is saying sounds right.

And I know Flagg also has crunched the numbers.

 

Sam's best hockey as a Sabre was centring Kane and Bailey.

[TrueBlueGED]

Isn't even strength points more indicative of his play at centre?  Even still, that's only 5 points in 14 games.  Far cry from 13 :P

 

Yes, but when we're already talking about a sample of games that's less than a quarter of the season, I think cutting down the sample further might actually impede our ability to assess this.

Dont think you have the right stretch of games Derrico.

I've done the research before and from my memory,what Blue is saying sounds right.

And I know Flagg also has crunched the numbers.

 

Sam's best hockey as a Sabre was centring Kane and Bailey.

 

I think so too. Hell, the stretch of games I'm referring to convinced Freeman, who has always come off (to me) as very lukewarm on Sam in general, that Sam's a center.

[Derrico]

Yes, but when we're already talking about a sample of games that's less than a quarter of the season, I think cutting down the sample further might actually impede our ability to assess this.

Ok, you can't throw out an outrageous number and then completely back off it by saying small sample size because it doesn't fit your original point.

Dont think you have the right stretch of games Derrico.

I've done the research before and from my memory,what Blue is saying sounds right.

And I know Flagg also has crunched the numbers.

 

Sam's best hockey as a Sabre was centring Kane and Bailey.

Maybe, but I don't think so.  True is right that it was while Eichel and Kane were hurt and it happened earlyish in the season.  That's exactly when those dates where.  If anyone has the exact games it would be appreciated.  But I was basing it off these two articles.

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/10/sabres-reinhart-center.html

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2016/10/23/13372930/sabres-sam-reinhart-moving-center-moulson-top-line

 

Those would put the date of first game at October 25th.  Which makes sense because the team had like 5 or 6 days off in between so DD could get him practice time at C.

[LGR4GM]

I don't expect a 21 year old to excel at Center during his first 10 games at center. I think he deserves another look but maybe Botterill and Housley think differently. 

[Derrico]

I don't expect a 21 year old to excel at Center during his first 10 games at center. I think he deserves another look but maybe Botterill and Housley think differently. 

That's a fair point.  My point was I don't think he played well at all while centering a line last season.  Also, I don't want him at third line centre because he's not playing with skilled enough players to succeed.  I wouldn't move ROR or Eichel off the top lines so therefore he continues to play wing.

 

Remember the days we were starving for centres :lol:  Good problem to have.

Edited June 16, 2017 by Derrico

[rakish]

Dont think you have the right stretch of games Derrico.

I've done the research before and from my memory,what Blue is saying sounds right.

And I know Flagg also has crunched the numbers.

 

Sam's best hockey as a Sabre was centring Kane and Bailey.

 

As I said earlier, I may have a bug.

 

I got Reinhart, Kane and Baley playing 39 minutes together, almost all of them the 6 games between game 37 and 42 (Jan 3-Jan 13). During those 39 minutes, Sam scored zero points, together, 1 goal was scored.

Edited June 16, 2017 by rakish

[dudacek]

Ok, you can't throw out an outrageous number and then completely back off it by saying small sample size because it doesn't fit your original point.

Maybe, but I don't think so.  True is right that it was while Eichel and Kane were hurt and it happened earlyish in the season.  That's exactly when those dates where.  If anyone has the exact games it would be appreciated.  But I was basing it off these two articles.

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/10/sabres-reinhart-center.html

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2016/10/23/13372930/sabres-sam-reinhart-moving-center-moulson-top-line

 

Those would put the date of first game at October 25th.  Which makes sense because the team had like 5 or 6 days off in between so DD could get him practice time at C.

But the period I'm talking about wasn't in October, it was in December.

Kane was back and playing well.

[nfreeman]

 

I think so too. Hell, the stretch of games I'm referring to convinced Freeman, who has always come off (to me) as very lukewarm on Sam in general, that Sam's a center.

Correct -- it was closer to mid-season, Reino was centering Kane and Bailey/other winger, that line was very effective and it sure looked like Reino is a natural center.

 

And while you are also correct that I generally have been a bit lukewarm on Reino, to be clear, my posts last night about trading Reino for Vatanen were not meant to advocate for that move. I was just attempting to interpret Howie's silence on Reino, plus free associating with the Sabres' need for a defenseman, the high market price for defensemen and the availability of Vatanen.

 

I want to see what a good coach can do with Reino. But I wouldn't be shocked if he is traded for a defenseman.