Expansion Draft -- Sabres moves and speculation

[SabresBaltimore]

So I brought this up in the Keep/Trade Kane thread, but in addition to the end of free agency, we have the Expansion draft to worry about later this year. I did a quick search, and I didn't see a thread on this. My apologies if I simply missed it.

 

Here are the rules:

 

 

 

Protected Lists

* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft: 

 

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender

b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender

 

* All players who have currently effective and continuing "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

 

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

 

Player Exposure Requirements

* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

 

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

 

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

 

iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.

 

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

 

 

So if you were TMGM, what's your list?

 

I'm terrible at this kind of thing, but I'll give my list anyways. I'm more curious what everyone else would do.

 

If like me you don't know whose under contract until when I found this site (http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/yearly/cap/) helpful.

 

Someone said Sam and Jack are protected under the first/second year clause. 

 

I want to protect both Risto and Mccabe, so I think we need to do option B.

 

Forwards

1) Ryan O' Reilly

2) Kyle Okposo (required anyways)

3) Johan Larson (resign)

4) Marcus Foligno (resign)

 

Defense

1) Rasmus Ristolainen

2) Jake Mccabe

3) Zach Bogosian (Required)

4) Josh Gorges (Required?)

 

Goalie

We currently have 0 goalies under contract who qualify. I'm not sure what we do here. Resign one, both? Which to keep, I'm not sure. I'd assume GMTM will resign both and protect Lehner. I might be leaning towards Nilsson, but it would depend on value of potential new contracts.

 

 

Meeting Exposure Requirements

These guys i'd leave vulnerable to meet the exposure requirement list:

 

Possible Defense

We need to sign someone to fit this bill? Neither Frason or Kulikov are under contract, and the rest don't meet the eligibility requirements..

 

Possible Forwards

1) Matt Moulson

2) Tyler Ennis (pending eligibility; assuming he gets to 47+ games this season; he had only 23 in 15/16, and only has 12 this season with 42 games left, which means he needs can only miss 7 more games)

2) Nicolas Deslauriers

 

Goalie

See above...

Edited January 11, 2017 by SabresBaltimore

[Eleven]

I'm not interested in them protecting either Foligno or Larsson over Kane.

[SabresBaltimore]

I'm not interested in them protecting either Foligno or Larsson over Kane.

 

Fair enough. As I said, I'm bad at this. When I first wrote my list I was doing option A and protecting all 3..but then I realized that I'd have to protect both Gorges and Bogosian and it basically messed up everything. I'm not super happy with my list. I'm at a loss as to how to handle it really.

 

I'd be curious to see what your list would look like.

[pi2000]

IMO it's too early to discuss this, there's still a lot of hockey left to be played.... trades, etc...

 

for example, Kane and Girgensons have turned their games around recently, can they keep it up?  

 

We don't know what Ennis has to offer.

 

Does Nilsson steal Lehners job?  

[MattPie]

Fair enough. As I said, I'm bad at this. When I first wrote my list I was doing option A and protecting all 3..but then I realized that I'd have to protect both Gorges and Bogosian and it basically messed up everything. I'm not super happy with my list. I'm at a loss as to how to handle it really.

 

I'd be curious to see what your list would look like.

 

I thought there was a stipulation in there that each team would lose a player. If that's the case, LV will have to pick up some AHL or 2-way guys as to be able to get down to the roster limit. It'll be interesting to see if LV tries to flip guys by picking them and then trading to another team for something.

 

Also, in your list you have Bogo as "required", but the jury is out on that one. Once he waived his movement clause to be traded to Buffalo, Buffalo isn't required to honor it. As far as I know, no one here knows whether Buffalo reinstated it after the trade.

[SabresBaltimore]

IMO it's too early to discuss this, there's still a lot of hockey left to be played.... trades, etc...

 

 

Probably, but it was on my brain, so I was curious if other people had thoughts on it. The list would certainly be fluid until the deadline.

 

 

Also, in your list you have Bogo as "required", but the jury is out on that one. Once he waived his movement clause to be traded to Buffalo, Buffalo isn't required to honor it. As far as I know, no one here knows whether Buffalo reinstated it after the trade.

 

Interesting. I didn't know that (again I'm bad at this). Honestly if we don't have to protect him, I wouldn't bother. I suspect his injuries, and general performance in the last few years along with the price of his contract makes him unappealing, but I could be wrong.

[North Buffalo]

Also isnt Mcabe protected... only his 2nd year I think.

[SabresBaltimore]

Also isnt Mcabe protected... only his 2nd year I think.

 

Yeah. I'm curious about that too. Technically this is the 4th season he's played some games for us, but it was 7 in 13/14, and only 2 in 14/15. Did those fall under his 10 game tryout?

[TrueBlueGED]

O'Reilly, Okposo, Larsson, Kane, Girgensons, Foligno, Carrier

 

Risto, McCabe, not-Bogo

 

Lehner

 

Really don't think there's a compelling reason to protect anyone else.

[WildCard]

Why Lehner? Dude is terrible

[Lanny]

O'Reilly, Okposo, Larsson, Kane, Girgensons, Foligno, Carrier

 

Risto, McCabe, not-Bogo

 

Lehner

 

Really don't think there's a compelling reason to protect anyone else.

That's my list as well, it doesn't appear there are really any tough choices.

 

Ennis is probably the best player you leave unprotected. 

 

Is it confirmed that Bogosian does indeed have to be protected? I thought there was a report that he did not. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Lanny

[SabresBaltimore]

O'Reilly, Okposo, Larsson, Kane, Girgensons, Foligno, Carrier

 

Risto, McCabe, not-Bogo

 

Lehner

 

Really don't think there's a compelling reason to protect anyone else.

 

Yeah, my original list looked mostly like that (minus Carrier since I think he's safe anyways with Gionta instead if we resign him, which I'd like to do for the right price). I'm also not sure I'd protect Lehner.

 

The problem is, I think we're forced to protect Gorges and possibly Bogo based on their contracts..

[TrueBlueGED]

Why Lehner? Dude is terrible

As with Tyrod, you're confusing average for terrible :p

 

Because I have zero concern with them picking Nilsson. He'll be a UFA, and even if they take him anyway, guys like him are a dime a dozen. Long term I'd rather have Lehner's upside and team-controlled rights.

Yeah, my original list looked mostly like that (minus Carrier since I think he's safe anyways with Gionta instead if we resign him, which I'd like to do for the right price). I'm also not sure I'd protect Lehner.

 

The problem is, I think we're forced to protect Gorges and possibly Bogo based on their contracts..

Nope. Gorges definitely not, and unless Murray is a buffoon and voluntarily chose to honor Bogo's NMC, we don't have to protect him either.

[Lanny]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/official-nhl-expansion-draft-exempt-list-contains-surprises/

 

According to this Okposo is the only player required to be protected. 

[SabresBaltimore]

As with Tyrod, you're confusing average for terrible :P

 

Because I have zero concern with them picking Nilsson. He'll be a UFA, and even if they take him anyway, guys like him are a dime a dozen. Long term I'd rather have Lehner's upside and team-controlled rights.

 

Both of them are UFA next year. We'd have to sign 1 or both of them, and if we only sign 1 of them, we can't protect them.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Actually we have beaten this horse before, but it is a favorite topic of mine.

 

We established that Bogo doesn't need to be protected since he was traded before his NMC kickedcin and therefore the clause was voided. Right now only Okposo has a NMC and he'd be protected anyway.

 

We also debated as to whether it is wise to protect an UFA like Kulikov.

 

Jack and Sam are exempt. (As are Fasching, Guhle, Baptiste, Bailey). Only prospect of note who could be drafted is Carrier.

 

At this point all we are certainly protecting are

F: ROR, Okposo

D: McCabe, Risto

 

After that there are questions about everyone else. Two players who won't be protected are Moulson and Gorges because of age, declining production and contract $ and term.

 

So who to protect (7-3-1)

Forwards

3. Kane - has played his way back to must protect (or trade)

4. Carrier - GMTM won't let a good prospect be lost for nothing.

5. Foligno - beginning to show consistency. Need his physical presence.

This is where things get tricky. Trade deadline may resolve them.

6. Larsson - with Sam now the 3rd line center, do we really need to re-sign and protect a 4th line center. I'd say yes at this point.

7. Girgensons - finding his game since Larsson went down. To young to give up on him.

8. Ennis - size, contract, injury history and declining production all working against him

9. Moulson - playing better, but contract a killer going forward. Buy out if not lost to expansion?

10. Dlo - thanks for the memories

11. Gionta - UFA

 

Defense

3. Bogosian

4. Gorges - doesn't deserve to be protected and won't be

5. No one else to protect unless we acquire someone at the deadline (Nelson - exempt; Franson, Fedun, Falk, and Kulikov are UFA's)

 

Goalie

1. Lehner - crazy? Maybe, but GMTM is a stubborn guy and he paid a high price to get him.

2. Nilsson - UFA, no real reason to protect him when you can re-sign him if GMTM wants in the 2 weeks between the expansion draft and the start of free agency.

3. Ullmark - is probably exempt, but we to expose one RFA or signed goalie.

4. Kasdorf - also probably exempt, better choice to expose.

[SabresBaltimore]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/official-nhl-expansion-draft-exempt-list-contains-surprises/

 

According to this Okposo is the only player required to be protected. 

 

Well that simplifies things greatly. I'd protect him anyways. Let Vegas have Bogosian or Gorges if they want.

[TrueBlueGED]

Both of them are UFA next year. We'd have to sign 1 or both of them, and if we only sign 1 of them, we can't protect them.

Lehner is an RFA. And at the time of the draft, Nilsson will not be a UFA...he'll be a pending UFA, thus we can expose him to meet the goalie requirement.

[SabresBaltimore]

Lehner is an RFA. And at the time of the draft, Nilsson will not be a UFA...he'll be a pending UFA, thus we can expose him to meet the goalie requirement.

 

Well RFA aside, the exposure rule says 17-18: iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18

 

So we'd still have to resign one or both of them I think..but I'm bad at the contract stuff..

[Lanny]

Ullmark fulfills this requirement?

Edited January 11, 2017 by Lanny

[Taro T]

O'Reilly, Okposo, Larsson, Kane, Girgensons, Foligno, Carrier

Risto, McCabe, not-Bogo

Lehner

Really don't think there's a compelling reason to protect anyone else.

  

Why Lehner? Dude is terrible

Would definitely leave Moulson & Ennis exposed. Depending on what trades get made @ the deadline, could see protecting a new F rather than Kane.

 

Agree on the D.

 

Lehner gets protected because Nilsson probably isn't signed until after the Vegas draft (though deal, if there'll be one, is worked out prior) & he's more of a known commodity than Ullmark. Doubt Ullmark gets chosen, though it's possible. If he does, could open the door for Peterson leaving ND early.

[SabresBaltimore]

Ullmark fulfills this requirement. 

 

Ah yeah, I guess we'd just to give him a qualifying offer. Goalies don't have a minimum game requirement apparently..

 

One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.

[TrueBlueGED]

Ullmark fulfills this requirement?

That sounds right.

[PartyZombies]

Forwards:

Okposo: We have no choice

ROR: No brainer

Foligno: Finally becoming the power forward we hoped for, hopefully the consistency improves further next year

Carrier: Be a tough loss if he were to go, great young prospect with lots of upside

Zemgus: Solid depth guy, finding his way again, plus Latvian Locomotive is an awesome nickname

Kane: If we haven't traded him yet, I suppose Deslauriers if we trade Kane

Larsson: I guess, we're deep at center but sure because I need 7

 

Defense:

Risto: No brainer

McCabe: Also fairly obvious at this point

Bogo: But only if we have to

Franson: If we don't have to protect Bogo, he's been a really solid possession guy this year

 

Goalie:

Lehner: Because GMTM

 

It's still super early, who knows what we look like after the deadline. But if it were tomorrow this is what I would want to see.

[PartyZombies]

Yeah. I'm curious about that too. Technically this is the 4th season he's played some games for us, but it was 7 in 13/14, and only 2 in 14/15. Did those fall under his 10 game tryout?

He played 14-15 in ROC, 15-16 in Buffalo so he's a 3rd year player, therefore not exempt