Keep or Trade Evander Kane

[pi2000]

 

None, but he had something on his right hand/wrist during his interview. If you pause the video right when he hits the boards, you can see why, it jams into the bottom of the boards pretty hard. And hopefully he's not concussed. 

 

 

I broke my wrist doing the same thing, right hand got pinned between the boards, ice, and my body as I hit the boards.    Didn't feel like much until I took my glove off and my wrist was crooked.   

 

We probably won't find out his status until tomorrow because they don't practice today.    However, if it was broken I doubt he'd be giving interviews after the game, he'd have gone to the x-ray room.   I'm sure he's fine.

[TrueBlueGED]

Cause I don't think he can or will sustain this. I also think we have bigger roster needs, especially given our prospect pool

Agreed. In general, defensemen are more valuable than wingers, and it's unarguably a bigger hole for this team. And the finances are no joke, particularly if we can't shed one (or both) of Ennis/Moulson. O'Reilly, Okposo, Kane, Ennis, Moulson, Eichel, Reinhart...could easily combine for $42 million in two years (Kane at 6, Eichel/Reinhart at 6.5). With limited or no cap growth, that's a hefty figure. Moreover, though I'm very happy with Kane's play in the role he's been in recently, I'm not sure I feel comfortable investing $6 million in a winger who can't really play with our best players.

 

Given all that, I'd rather trade him while his value was at its apex.

Edited February 8, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[nfreeman]

I'd just like to point out, for those who think that Nylander could fill a scoring void created by trading Kane, that Nylander has 5 freaking goals in 41 AHL games.

 

So hold your GD horses.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nylander is 18 and the Amerks stink with a D group worse then the Sabres. Not exactly a fair comparison, but I do agree that I hoped for more from Nylander in his first year of pro hockey.

Edited February 9, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Doohicksie]

Cause I don't think he can or will sustain this.

 

Of course not.  Almost nobody stays at the top of their game, game after game.  One thing I've noticed about Kane, though, that I want on this team:  The guy never stops skating hard.  And even when he's not scoring, the potential is always there, and it's a potential other teams have to guard against.

 

This summer I was ready to trade the guy for a bag of pucks.  I'm coming around to thinking of him as part of the core.

[Robviously]

I'll never understand the 'his value is going up, trade him' logic. If his value (not referring to any player in particular) is going up then he's playing great hockey. Isn't this team looking for players playing great hockey? Why complain about a team not having enough talent to make the playoffs, and then suggest trading the players that do have enough to get you there?

 

I just don't get it........

 

 

Cause I don't think he can or will sustain this. I also think we have bigger roster needs, especially given our prospect pool

Basically this, but also the part where I don't think he's here after next season.  Out of all the NHL cities, does he want to be in Buffalo?  After being investigated for two alleged assaults?  Regardless of what really happened (and obviously none of us have any idea), wouldn't you want a fresh start somewhere if it was you?  

 

And if you're set on re-signing him, are you willing to outbid the other 30 teams next summer?  Are you willing to give him the same contract we gave Okposo?  Or even more than that?

 

If the right trade is there at the deadline this year (pending his health), I'd go for it.  It'd be nice to move a guy when his value is at an all-time high versus when it's bottomed-out.  

[WildCard]

Basically this, but also the part where I don't think he's here after next season. Out of all the NHL cities, does he want to be in Buffalo? After being investigated for two alleged assaults? Regardless of what really happened (and obviously none of us have any idea), wouldn't you want a fresh start somewhere if it was you?

 

And if you're set on re-signing him, are you willing to outbid the other 30 teams next summer? Are you willing to give him the same contract we gave Okposo? Or even more than that?

 

If the right trade is there at the deadline this year (pending his health), I'd go for it. It'd be nice to move a guy when his value is at an all-time high versus when it's bottomed-out.

Summed it up perfectly. He's not staying, we have bigger holes, and his value will never be higher. Move him now or move him at the draft

[nfreeman]

Robvy and WC:  what if Kaner is willing to sign an extension for $5.75MM x 6 years?

[dudacek]

Summed it up perfectly. He's not staying, we have bigger holes, and his value will never be higher. Move him now or move him at the draft

 

Assuming Myers was worth a bit more than Bogosian, then two years ago Kane was worth a bit less than the equivalent of four early seconds. Is his value now less than it was then?

 

Robvy and WC: what if Kaner is willing to sign an extension for $5.75MM x 6 years?

Can I play?

I say yes. And I say this expecting him to only give me 65-70 games a year.

Edited February 9, 2017 by dudacek

[Hank]

Robvy and WC:  what if Kaner is willing to sign an extension for $5.75MM x 6 years?

I'd take that in a heartbeat. I love Kane. But I don't think he signs an extension so I'm in the trade him while his value is highest camp.

[WildCard]

Robvy and WC: what if Kaner is willing to sign an extension for $5.75MM x 6 years?

To what? Play on our 3rd line for 60 games a year? Hard pass

[JJFIVEOH]

Basically this, but also the part where I don't think he's here after next season.  Out of all the NHL cities, does he want to be in Buffalo?  After being investigated for two alleged assaults?  Regardless of what really happened (and obviously none of us have any idea), wouldn't you want a fresh start somewhere if it was you?  

 

And if you're set on re-signing him, are you willing to outbid the other 30 teams next summer?  Are you willing to give him the same contract we gave Okposo?  Or even more than that?

 

If the right trade is there at the deadline this year (pending his health), I'd go for it.  It'd be nice to move a guy when his value is at an all-time high versus when it's bottomed-out.  

 

All good points. I agree if he wants no part of Buffalo then work on some kind of deal. I would hope, if Murray hasn't already had talks with him, that he will and find out for sure. 

 

He's never going to be 100% healthy, it's just not the kind of game he plays. Most physical players will never be 100%. Those are higher risk players in which you take the good with the bad. His highs far outweigh his injuries. He is built for the playoffs, I want him here in the playoffs. 

 

While a fresh start might be a good move for him, will he benefit from going somewhere else? In a smaller city like Buffalo, his past might get put behind him easier than a larger city. In his defense, staying here he has the opportunity to enter his prime playing alongside Eichel. Most teams he might not have the chance to excel like he could in Buffalo. 

 

These are questions we'll never know, but I hope are addressed between Kane's agent and Murray. 

Robvy and WC:  what if Kaner is willing to sign an extension for $5.75MM x 6 years?

 

Absolutely. 

[Randall Flagg]

I want Kane on our third line the way Kessel was on Pitt's third line. Especially in the playoffs. But he makes it damn hard to play against all the time. Teams tired of defending Jack and ROR do not get a shift to regroup, just because Evander is a wrecking ball. Even when he isn't scoring he's at the very least obnoxious and difficult to play against. 

 

Our bottom six already looks so ugly with a couple of injuries. I have a hard time seeing it get better. Bailey gets the callup over Baptiste, and does nothing to inspire me. Carrier is fun, but doesn't produce. That hole isn't getting filled anytime soon if Kane is moved, not from within, and the way the market has looked, we wouldn't even get a good defenseman for him.

 

And Nylander is a long ways away from being a productive, good NHLer. I don't feel great about him, though I know nobody here wants to hear that at this point. If we get lucky and draft top 2, which we certainly won't, but if we do, I move Nylander in a large package that can include next year's first for some defense help and go with Nico as our teenage skill guy.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't understand the seemingly sudden pessimism re: Nylander. His World Junior performance should have everyone giddy for his future. I understand he's not tearing up the AHL, but I think that speaks more to the AHL being the wrong place for him than anything else. Thanks Murray.

 

Maybe he's a little farther away than I think he is, but I distinctly remember comments on how far away Reinhart was after his 9 game trial, concerns about his lower production upon his return to junior, how he needed AHL seasoning...and he scores 20 as a rookie with zero AHL time, despite not having a regular scoring role until a quarter of the way into the season.

 

Nylander is my boo. Back off!

[GASabresIUFAN]

Not!

 

In Kane's career he has average .30 goals per game and .295 assists per game.  In a full season (82 games) Kane numbers say he should score 25 goals and 24 assists.  49 pts @ 5.25 mill per season wouldn't seem out of wack, but the problem is Kane never plays a full schedule.  He has only once in his career played an entire season and that was the strike shortened season.   So far in his career Kane has played in 467 games of the 592 played by his team or 79%.  His best season of 30 goals and 27 assists was in 2011-12 or over 5 years ago.

 

That stat translates to just under 65 games per season and 20 goals and 19 assists. (He played 65 games last year with 20 goals and 15 assists). Do really feel like paying $6 mill for 39 pts a season? I don't and I don't think GMTM will either.  

 

Remember we just signed Okposo to $6 mill per season, who has averaged 22g and 40 assists over the last 3 season and is on  pace this season for 26 goals and 27 assists.  Who would rather pay $6 mill to?

 

 

Assuming Myers was worth a bit more than Bogosian, then two years ago Kane was worth a bit less than the equivalent of four early seconds. Is his value now less than it was then?

 

Can I play?

I say yes. And I say this expecting him to only give me 65-70 games a year.

 

Dude, your willing to pay nearly 6 mill for 6 years for a guy who can't stay healthy and whose career shows that this current level of play is unlikely to last?  That type of thinking is why we aren't winning.  We keep paying the wrong guys.  Kulikov, Bogo, Moulson, and Ennis are just 4 overpaid non-producers.  Lets add Kane to the list for the next 7 years.  

[JJFIVEOH]

Dude, your willing to pay nearly 6 mill for 6 years for a guy who can't stay healthy and whose career shows that this current level of play is unlikely to last?  That type of thinking is why we aren't winning.  We keep paying the wrong guys.  Kulikov, Bogo, Moulson, and Ennis are just 4 overpaid non-producers.  Lets add Kane to the list for the next 7 years.  

 

His current level of play over the last couple of months is a 40+ goal pace. Of course he's not going to keep that up. What he will keep up is at least a 25-30 goal pace, maybe more if he's given a major role. 

 

If he can score at a 25-30 goal pace, he's equaling Okposo and he arguably brings more intangibles to the ice than Okposo. 

 

You aren't seeing what Kulikov is capable of. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

His current level of play over the last couple of months is a 40+ goal pace. Of course he's not going to keep that up. What he will keep up is at least a 25-30 goal pace, maybe more if he's given a major role. 

 

If he can score at a 25-30 goal pace, he's equaling Okposo and he arguably brings more intangibles to the ice than Okposo. 

 

You aren't seeing what Kulikov is capable of. 

I shudder to think what Kulikov is capable of.  I have never been a Kulikov fan, but was willing to see what he could do.  However, even now that he is healthy he still often looks lost out there.  I think we can speed $4 mill better elsewhere then extending Kulikov for even one more season.  Ask me again if he'll return for $2 and I might be interested then.

 

Even if Kane can maintain a 25 goal pace, something he has only done once in 7 years, he, unlike Okposo, doesn't create for his linemates.  Okposo has averaged 22 goals and 40 assists over the last 3 years and he isn't far from those numbers this season.  Kane's highest assist total was 27 5 years ago.  Last season in 65 games in a top 6 role he had 15 assists.  This year he has 10.  This is not a $6 mill dollar man.  I will give some intangibles to Kane for his PK work and Physical game, but that isn't enough for me to give him a $2mill premium over the 40 pt, 65 game inconsistent player I think he is.  Someone once brought up Drew Stafford and I think that is what Kane is.

Edited February 9, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Scottysabres]

I shudder to think what Kulikov is capable of.  I have never been a Kulikov fan, but was willing to see what he could do.  However, even now that he is healthy he still often looks lost out there.  I think we can speed $4 mill better elsewhere then extending Kulikov for even one more season.  Ask me again if he'll return for $2 and I might be interested then.

 

Even if Kane can maintain a 25 goal pace, something he has only done once in 7 years, he, unlike Okposo, doesn't create for his linemates.  Okposo has averaged 22 goals and 40 assists over the last 3 years and he isn't far from those numbers this season.  Kane's highest assist total was 27 5 years ago.  Last season in 65 games in a top 6 role he had 15 assists.  This year he has 10.  This is not a $6 mill dollar man.  I will give some intangibles to Kane for his PK work and Physical game, but that isn't enough for me to give him a $2mill premium over the 40 pt, 65 game inconsistent player I think he is.  Someone once brought up Drew Stafford and I think that is what Kane is.

Eegads Batman.

While I'm a proponent of moving Kane for the "right" deal, by no means am I under the illusion he's a "Staffordesque" type player. Do yourself a favor, don't run in to Kane out and about while voicing that comparison. It would end badly lol.

[JJFIVEOH]

Kulkov is not healthy. He's not practicing, and won't the rest of the year. That's not healthy.

 

Kane is Drew Stafford? Really? 

[dudacek]

Dude, your willing to pay nearly 6 mill for 6 years for a guy who can't stay healthy and whose career shows that this current level of play is unlikely to last?

 

Yes. For that money I expect an average of 20-25 goals, 40-45 points and 65-70 games a year, until he is 31.

I expect at least one year to be mostly a wash. I expect at least one year to be 30 goals.

I also expect 18 minutes a night in all situations, a few bad penalties, a guy who scares defenceman with his strength and his speed, and some elite backchecking and forechecking.

I expect a top-50 NHL left winger when he's healthy, a guy who goes hard, and a necessary piece for a team that wants to succeed in the playoffs. Flagg gets why.

 

You don't get a player like that without paying. Freeman's contract seems fair market value.

I'll trade him right now for the right defenceman, but nobody believes that deal is out there.

And I'll trade him to the highest bidder as soon as it becomes clear we can't re-sign him to a deal that makes sense for us.

 

Until then, he's a good player. We need more good players, not fewer. I want to keep him

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes really.  Hockey-reference.com has them at a 90% comparison over their first 7 years.  Here is why.

Stafford (1st 7 years) 443 games, 120 goals, 144 assists for 264 pts;  +17, 

Kane (1st 7 years) 426 games, 129 goals, 128 assists for 257 pts; -24

 

Like Kane, Stafford played on the 2nd line PP and PK.  Stafford also grew into one of our more physical players, going from the 50-60 hits range to over 100 in 2011.  He wasn't a Kane level hitter, but he was more physical player then people realize.  Also Kane has been less physical this season and he is the better for it.  He is tracking to the 110 range for the season.  Also Kane has one 30 goal season and 1 20 goal season (both on the number) in his 1st 7 seasons.  Stafford had 2 20 goals seasons (also on the number) and one 31 goal season in his 1st 7 years.

 

I'm not saying that Kane isn't the better hockey player, but people shouldn't be so quick to dismiss very similar numbers with similar inconsistency.

[dudacek]

I saw six seasons of Stafford and two of Kane.

What I watched tells me if Drew is worth $4 million, then Evander is worth $6.

[JJFIVEOH]

I'll take Kane at 6 over Stafford at 4. I'll take Kane at 7 over Stafford at 4.

[darksabre]

I don't understand the seemingly sudden pessimism re: Nylander. His World Junior performance should have everyone giddy for his future. I understand he's not tearing up the AHL, but I think that speaks more to the AHL being the wrong place for him than anything else. Thanks Murray.

 

Maybe he's a little farther away than I think he is, but I distinctly remember comments on how far away Reinhart was after his 9 game trial, concerns about his lower production upon his return to junior, how he needed AHL seasoning...and he scores 20 as a rookie with zero AHL time, despite not having a regular scoring role until a quarter of the way into the season.

 

Nylander is my boo. Back off!

That's why I'm pushing for a Kane trade and a Vanek signing to fill the gap for a year or two before Nylander is ready. Hell, I'd even trade Detroit a pick or something to get Vanek here before the end of the season and then get an extension done. He wanted to come back here, so let's make that happen and avoid locking ourselves into Kane for 5-6 years. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The Sabres can not replace what Kane brings with anything in the Sabres system.  That is why he was brought in here.  I will be not happy if he is traded.

 

Vanek cannot bring what Kane does.  Very few in the NHL bring what Kane does.