Keep or Trade Evander Kane

[GASabresIUFAN]

After reading the discussion since I posed my question about Kane re-signing here, it seems almost universal that Kane wouldn't be re-signed when his contract expires.  If this is so, we need to get maximum return for him now or asap.  

 

I'll also give you another couple of reasons to trade him asap. 

1) he has a significant injury history.  He is healthy and playing well, but his style lends itself to injuries.  Best to try to move him when he is healthy because he can go down at any time.

2) He is a streaky scorer.  Move him while he is hot.

3) After Risto and McCabe we have no quality young D here or in Rochester.  Nelson doesn't play in his own end very well, and our best prospects are in Jr's(Guhle) or college (Borgen, Fitzgerald) and we won't have any idea if there are truly NHL ready until they become pros.  Remember it takes 2-3 years for most D prospects to prove they are fully NHL ready.  It's time to fill the gap in the pipeline between Risto and McCabe and Guhle/Borgen/Fitzgerald.

4) We have young depth at wing, even if they aren't fully NHL ready in Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Nylander.  Carrier is already bringing much of the same game that Kane brings (although he isn't a scorer like Kane).  Most importantly, Nylander is likely going to grab a top 6 job by the end of the 2017-18 season.  We also have the still developing Cornel, Estephan etc...

5) It would be nice to shore up the D soon, since we are relying to heavily on guys like Fedun, Falk, and Franson, which isn't usually a road to success.

Edited January 23, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Scottysabres]

After reading the discussion since I posed my question about Kane re-signing here, it seems almost universal that Kane wouldn't be re-signed when his contract expires.  If this is so, we need to get maximum return for him now or asap.  

 

I'll also give you another couple of reasons to trade him asap. 

1) he has a significant injury history.  He is healthy and playing well, but his style lends itself to injuries.  Best to try to move him when he is healthy because he can go down at any time.

2) He is a streaky scorer.  Move him while he is hot.

3) After Risto and McCabe we have no quality young D here or in Rochester.  Nelson doesn't play in his own end very well, and our best prospects are in Jr's(Guhle) or college (Borgen, Fitzgerald) and we won't have any idea if there are truly NHL ready until they become pros.  Remember it takes 2-3 years for most D prospects to prove they are fully NHL ready.  It's time to fill the gap in the pipeline between Risto and McCabe and Guhle/Borgen/Fitzgerald.

4) We have young depth at wing, even if they aren't fully NHL ready in Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Nylander.  Carrier is already bringing much of the same game that Kane brings (although he isn't a scorer like Kane).  Most importantly, Nylander is likely going to grab a top 6 job by the end of the 2017-18 season.  We also have the still developing Cornel, Estephan etc...

5) It would be nice to shore up the D soon, since we are relying to heavily on guys like Fedun, Falk, and Franson, which isn't usually a road to success.

We definitely need defense.

LHD and RHD up and down the organization.

 

I will say this, Fasching, Bailey and Baptiste are all RW'ers. Are left wing depth is pretty thin. Don't expect Nylander up in 17-18 nor 18-19. He's going to need a couple of seasons in the AHL to develop size and adjust to the adult game. It's already showing.

 

Goaltending, we have to fill the pipeline because great save the other night or not, Lehner has some real post hugging issues.

[Weave]

And Carrier doesn't have Kane's game.  he doesn't have the nasty, and he doesn't have the goal scoring.

[Robviously]

And Carrier doesn't have Kane's game.  he doesn't have the nasty, and he doesn't have the goal scoring.

He doesn't have the goal-scoring but he's at least as nasty.  92 hits in 32 games compared to 62 hits in 35 games for Kane, and he's delivered some devastating hits this year (the Backes hit is the first that comes to mind).

[WildCard]

I'm glad Kane isn't hitting as much. He was wreckless key throwing his body around like Kaleta beforehand

[nfreeman]

He doesn't have the goal-scoring but he's at least as nasty. 92 hits in 32 games compared to 62 hits in 35 games for Kane, and he's delivered some devastating hits this year (the Backes hit is the first that comes to mind).

Yes indeed.

[TheAud]

Agreed.  Fast, aggressive, skilled, and sometimes violent. 

 

Who was the last Sabre to have that?  Are we going back to Markus' dad?

 

Michael Peca...only a mere 7 years ago!

[nfreeman]

 

4) We have young depth at wing, even if they aren't fully NHL ready in Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Nylander.  Carrier is already bringing much of the same game that Kane brings (although he isn't a scorer like Kane).  Most importantly, Nylander is likely going to grab a top 6 job by the end of the 2017-18 season.  We also have the still developing Cornel, Estephan etc...

 

None of Carrier, Bailey or Baptiste has shown any sign whatsoever of being able to score 25+ at the NHL level.  There is certainly reason for hope with Nylander, but he has 17 pts in 35 AHL games this year.  That does not indicate the ability to be a good NHL player next year.

[inkman]

He doesn't have the goal-scoring but he's at least as nasty. 92 hits in 32 games compared to 62 hits in 35 games for Kane, and he's delivered some devastating hits this year (the Backes hit is the first that comes to mind).

It's a different kind of nasty. (Yes I just posted that) Carrier is a nice player and all but I don't think he carries the same cache as Kane who can wreck you with his body or his fists. Dudes aren't lining up to take on Evander. Opponents get real shy when he's on the ice. This would have meant more 10-20 years ago but it still means something, especially come playoff time.

 

For whatever reason, probably because the NHL wants it, the typical power forward of yesteryear seems to flourish in the postseason. Your Bickells, Abdelkaders, Lucices (?) become super human and very effective. Kane is that and then some.

[MattPie]

I'll say that if Kane is kept and plays on the third line, you're looking at Foligno or Carrier cost players on the wing on lines #1 and #2 to supplement ROR-Eichel-Reinhart-Okposo. It doesn't look like there's a realistic way to keep Kane and bring in any big-money players for the wings in the top-6. For that matter, Gionta on the 3rd too seems like a lot of money for a 3rd line. I'm not opposed to the idea of 3 roughly equal lines; having $9.5M in two third line players almost requires that each line has a low-cost player.

[Weave]

I'll say that if Kane is kept and plays on the third line, you're looking at Foligno or Carrier cost players on the wing on lines #1 and #2 to supplement ROR-Eichel-Reinhart-Okposo. It doesn't look like there's a realistic way to keep Kane and bring in any big-money players for the wings in the top-6. For that matter, Gionta on the 3rd too seems like a lot of money for a 3rd line. I'm not opposed to the idea of 3 roughly equal lines; having $9.5M in two third line players almost requires that each line has a low-cost player.

 

That is where a pipeline of guys like Nylander and Bailey is important.

[GASabresIUFAN]

We aren't going to re-sign someone for $5.5 to $6 per season with the intention of them being a 3rd line LW.  Sometimes a guy is signed to a big contract (Moulson) craps out and becomes a lower line player, but no GM spends that kind of money on a 3rd line player intentionally.  

 

Also Bailey and Baptiste have good scoring touch and both have 20-25 goal NHL potential.  Both guys are 21 and will likely continue to improve.  Both also play physical and skate very well.  Both are tied for 6th in AHL goals with 17. Baptiste has done it in 34 games which Bailey, who is on a 7 game goal scoring streak, has 17 in 35.  He has really blossomed since scoring his 1st NHL goal a few weeks ago.  Also both are even or + guys on the worst team in the Eastern AHL. Nylander also has 20-25 goal potential, but I see him more in a playmaker role in the NHL.  

 

To further the notion of how desperate we are for defense in our entire organization we have only 4 draftees playing in all 3 levels of the organization.  They are Risto and McCabe in the NHL, Austin (and he was signed to an AHL ELC) in the AHL and Martin in the ECHL (although he is in Roch as an injury fill in right now).  Furthermore, Rochester's D, after 28 year olds Fedun and Falk were called up, consists primarily of older AHL vets and college FAs.  Not exactly a group of top prospects or a group that has been very good in the AHL.  The guys with the most games are ECHL/AHL vet Burgdoerfer, 28, College FA Nelson, 24, AHL Vet Mac Bennett, 25, NHL/AHL vet Strachan, 32, Austin, 24, and College FA Paul Geiger 25.  None have an NHL future.

 

Again trade Kane now while the iron is hot.  We are not a playoff team and we can't go another season with no D depth in the NHL or AHL.  GMTM you have failed the organization this season.

Edited January 23, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

There is almost no way he signs for less than $6 million per.

[nfreeman]

We aren't going to re-sign someone for $5.5 to $6 per season with the intention of them being a 3rd line LW.  Sometimes a guy is signed to a big contract (Moulson) craps out and becomes a lower line player, but no GM spends that kind of money on a 3rd line player intentionally.  

 

Also Bailey and Baptiste have good scoring touch and both have 20-25 goal NHL potential.  Both guys are 21 and will likely continue to improve.  Both also play physical and skate very well.  Both are tied for 6th in AHL goals with 17. Baptiste has done it in 34 games which Bailey, who is on a 7 game goal scoring streak, has 17 in 35.  He has really blossomed since scoring his 1st NHL goal a few weeks ago.  Also both are even or + guys on the worst team in the Eastern AHL. Nylander also has 20-25 goal potential, but I see him more in a playmaker role in the NHL.  

 

To further the notion of how desperate we are for defense in our entire organization we have only 4 draftees playing in all 3 levels of the organization.  They are Risto and McCabe in the NHL, Austin (and he was signed to an AHL ELC) in the AHL and Martin in the ECHL (although he is in Roch as an injury fill in right now).  Furthermore, Rochester's D, after 28 year olds Fedun and Falk were called up, consists primarily of older AHL vets and college FAs.  Not exactly a group of top prospects or a group that has been very good in the AHL.  The guys with the most games are ECHL/AHL vet Burgdoerfer, 28, College FA Nelson, 24, AHL Vet Mac Bennett, 25, NHL/AHL vet Strachan, 32, Austin, 24, and College FA Paul Geiger 25.  None have an NHL future.

 

Again trade Kane now while the iron is hot.  We are not a playoff team and we can't go another season with no D depth in the NHL or AHL.  GMTM you have failed the organization this season.

 

Your points about the D are reasonable, but Kane is not a 3rd line LW.  He's 4th on the team among forwards in ice time.  He's also 2nd in goals -- just 2 fewer than KO but in 10 fewer games.

 

Kane is also playing exactly the kind of game that GMTM wanted when he traded for him. 

 

Unless something is going on behind the scenes with Kane (which, as I've mentioned previously, I think is possible), I don't think he's going to be traded.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Your points about the D are reasonable, but Kane is not a 3rd line LW.  He's 4th on the team among forwards in ice time.  He's also 2nd in goals -- just 2 fewer than KO but in 10 fewer games.

 

Kane is also playing exactly the kind of game that GMTM wanted when he traded for him. 

 

Unless something is going on behind the scenes with Kane (which, as I've mentioned previously, I think is possible), I don't think he's going to be traded.

 

Ok, except how do you re-sign him?  Can we afford to pay him $6 mill per season for a guy who is injury prone, often has attitude problems and has only 1 season (5+ years ago) over 20 goals?  If we can't re-sign then we must trade him.  

 

Ask yourself, who has been the healthier and more productive player in his career, Okposo or Kane?  We are playing Kyle $6 per season. Are you willing to pay Kane what we are paying Okposo?  Is he any where near as valuable to the team as Okposo?

Edited January 24, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

Accidently posted this in the GDT.

Good points on the pros of Kane in this thread.

The cons though, are most likely insurmountable. That being money, term and to some, lack of team play with his linemates.

Move him this deadline or off season if a deal like shea Theodore presents itself is my opinion.

Just for fun though, Anaheim is against the cap more than we are right now.

To Anaheim: (projected cap hit, 76.8 - LTIR relief, 4.98 - current cap projection, 71.82)

Kane 5.25 aav 6.00 sal (1 yr)

Nillson 1.00 aav 1.00 sal (UFA)

Girgensons 1.15 aav 1.15 sal (RFA)

Total: 8.40 aav

To Buffalo: (Projected cap hit, 71.6 - LTIR relief, 0 - current cap projection, 71.6)

Stoner 3.25 aav 3.25 sal (1 yr)

Bernier 4.15 aav 4.15 sal (UFA)

Theodore 863,333 aav 832,500 sal (ELC)

Nick Ritchie 1,627,500 aav 925,000 sal with 850,000 P bonus (RFA)

Total: 9.1 aav

I included the salaries because Anaheim has internal cap? Just something to look at.

So, Bernier had been playing bad lately and he's pricey. Give them Nillson for price reduction and appears steadier in play. Both are FA's.

They get Kane and Girgensons for the playoff run and scoring increase they need as well as both can be around next season for it as well.

We get Theodore for an LHD we need and we get Ritchie who has had a tad bit worse struggles than Girgs as the price for swinging the deal. But both are young and appear to need a change of scenery.May have to add something minor pick wise to equalize, not sure though.

Stoner is the cap relief they'd like and he's gone before jack and Sam's new contracts kick in.

My first time trying this, be kind in your flaming :)

Thoughts?

Good stuff here.

 

I think at least one of the seconds this year will have to be added

 

The Ducks window is closing fast and no team is dominant in the West.

 

 

They maybe make this move

[GASabresIUFAN]

Scotty, you are making this harder then need be.

 

Kane and Nelson for Stoner and Theodore (or Montour) with us eating about $1,000,000 in Kane's cap hit for this season.  Remember Kane cap hit for the season is 5.25 and Stoner's is 3.25, but we are over the 50% of the season mark thus over 1/2 of their cap hits have been paid.  I guesstimate that Kane has about 2.60 left and Stoner about 1.6 if the trade was done today, however by the deadline Kane will be down to 1.3 with Stoner down to about 800K.  

 

Frankly, I think both teams would be better off doing a deal sooner, if Ana is truly interested in making a run.

[Scottysabres]

Good stuff here.

I think at least one of the seconds this year will have to be added

The Ducks window is closing fast and no team is dominant in the West.

They maybe make this move

  

 

I think if we are to get Theodore, cap plays a big role with any dealings with Anaheim. We are both so tight to the ceiling.

 

Scotty, you are making this harder then need be.

 

Kane and Nelson for Stoner and Theodore (or Montour) with us eating about $1,000,000 in Kane's cap hit for this season.  Remember Kane cap hit for the season is 5.25 and Stoner's is 3.25, but we are over the 50% of the season mark thus over 1/2 of their cap hits have been paid.  I guesstimate that Kane has about 2.60 left and Stoner about 1.6 if the trade was done today, however by the deadline Kane will be down to 1.3 with Stoner down to about 800K.  

 

Frankly, I think both teams would be better off doing a deal sooner, if Ana is truly interested in making a run.

2 million pro rated for remainder of season puts Anaheim over the cap by 800,000. There has to be more roster players involved, and Anaheim will be looking for internal cap relief. This type of deal gives them an additional 700,000 which moves their number from 71.82 to 71.12, leaving them 1.88 in cap space as opposed to 1.18.

[bob_sauve28]

None of Carrier, Bailey or Baptiste has shown any sign whatsoever of being able to score 25+ at the NHL level.  There is certainly reason for hope with Nylander, but he has 17 pts in 35 AHL games this year.  That does not indicate the ability to be a good NHL player next year.

Bailey is on a roll in AHL, if the price is right for Kane at deadline I move him 

[Brawndo]

Bailey is on a roll in AHL, if the price is right for Kane at deadline I move him

The AHL isn't the NHL in terms of scoring but I agree with this sentiment.

[Eleven]

Bailey is on a roll in AHL, if the price is right for Kane at deadline I move him 

 

Bailey and Kane are not at all the same player.

[Thorner]

We definitely need defense.

LHD and RHD up and down the organization.

I will say this, Fasching, Bailey and Baptiste are all RW'ers. Are left wing depth is pretty thin. Don't expect Nylander up in 17-18 nor 18-19. He's going to need a couple of seasons in the AHL to develop size and adjust to the adult game. It's already showing.

Goaltending, we have to fill the pipeline because great save the other night or not, Lehner has some real post hugging issues.

With respect, there's no way this is true. If Nylander isn't up here next year, OR the year after, it would mean he isn't here until his 4th post draft season. That's not going to happen.

 

MAYBE he's not up next season, but if that's the case, he's certainly up for the 18/19 season.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

With respect, there's no way this is true. If Nylander isn't up here next year, OR the year after, it would mean he isn't here until his 4th post draft season. That's not going to happen.

 

MAYBE he's not up next season, but if that's the case, he's certainly up for the 18/19 season.

 

Unless he's a ... washout?

 

It's always possible. 

 

My point is that the Sabres shouldn't (and probably aren't) making plans for Kane based on the assumption that Nylander will fill the void.

[Thorner]

Unless he's a ... washout?

 

It's always possible. 

 

My point is that the Sabres shouldn't (and probably aren't) making plans for Kane based on the assumption that Nylander will fill the void.

I agree, definitely they aren't operating under that assumption.

 

Was just taking issue with the Nylander projection, separately.

 

Yes, there's always the chance of a washout, but I think it's a minute one, with regards to Nylander.

[Scottysabres]

With respect, there's no way this is true. If Nylander isn't up here next year, OR the year after, it would mean he isn't here until his 4th post draft season. That's not going to happen.

MAYBE he's not up next season, but if that's the case, he's certainly up for the 18/19 season.

I understand.

I've been to numerous Amerks games this season, so I'm basing my opinion on what I've witnessed to date.

His WJC performance not withstanding, it's very clear in Rochester he'll need next season for sure. He may see a call up or 3, but nothing I've seen indicates he's even close to sticking next season.

 

I will concede the following year is a real stretch of an opinion based on how far out it is, but i revert back to what I see now with him.

 

However, I don't see him as a washout, I view him him as a 2nd/3rd line RW projection. In no way do i see him as top line material. Once again, this is just my early assessment on him from what I've seen.

 

Only time will tell if I'm right or wrong I reckon.