Keep or Trade Evander Kane

[nfreeman]

To what? Play on our 3rd line for 60 games a year? Hard pass

 

No -- to be the #4 forward, score 25+ goals per year, play in all situations and send bodies flying on the regular.

 

I want Kane on our third line the way Kessel was on Pitt's third line. Especially in the playoffs. But he makes it damn hard to play against all the time. Teams tired of defending Jack and ROR do not get a shift to regroup, just because Evander is a wrecking ball. Even when he isn't scoring he's at the very least obnoxious and difficult to play against. 

 

Our bottom six already looks so ugly with a couple of injuries. I have a hard time seeing it get better. Bailey gets the callup over Baptiste, and does nothing to inspire me. Carrier is fun, but doesn't produce. That hole isn't getting filled anytime soon if Kane is moved, not from within, and the way the market has looked, we wouldn't even get a good defenseman for him.

 

And Nylander is a long ways away from being a productive, good NHLer. I don't feel great about him, though I know nobody here wants to hear that at this point. If we get lucky and draft top 2, which we certainly won't, but if we do, I move Nylander in a large package that can include next year's first for some defense help and go with Nico as our teenage skill guy.

 

Good post.

 

I don't understand the seemingly sudden pessimism re: Nylander. His World Junior performance should have everyone giddy for his future. I understand he's not tearing up the AHL, but I think that speaks more to the AHL being the wrong place for him than anything else. Thanks Murray.

 

Maybe he's a little farther away than I think he is, but I distinctly remember comments on how far away Reinhart was after his 9 game trial, concerns about his lower production upon his return to junior, how he needed AHL seasoning...and he scores 20 as a rookie with zero AHL time, despite not having a regular scoring role until a quarter of the way into the season.

 

Nylander is my boo. Back off!

 

I don't think it's prudent to assume World Juniors is a better predictor of NHL play than AHL play is.  Plenty of junior stars have washed out in the NHL. 

 

Put another way:  how many guys who were 10-goals-or-less guys in the AHL turned into 25+ goal guys in the NHL?

 

I shudder to think what Kulikov is capable of.  I have never been a Kulikov fan, but was willing to see what he could do.  However, even now that he is healthy he still often looks lost out there.  I think we can speed $4 mill better elsewhere then extending Kulikov for even one more season.  Ask me again if he'll return for $2 and I might be interested then.

 

Even if Kane can maintain a 25 goal pace, something he has only done once in 7 years, he, unlike Okposo, doesn't create for his linemates.  Okposo has averaged 22 goals and 40 assists over the last 3 years and he isn't far from those numbers this season.  Kane's highest assist total was 27 5 years ago.  Last season in 65 games in a top 6 role he had 15 assists.  This year he has 10.  This is not a $6 mill dollar man.  I will give some intangibles to Kane for his PK work and Physical game, but that isn't enough for me to give him a $2mill premium over the 40 pt, 65 game inconsistent player I think he is.  Someone once brought up Drew Stafford and I think that is what Kane is.

 

This isn't fantasy hockey.  No one with functioning eyesight can seriously compare Stafford -- who routinely disappeared for months at a time -- with Kane -- who is a dangerous presence on every shift.

[That Aud Smell]

Man. This is a rough crowd re A. Nylander.

 

He's young (turning 19 in a month or so). He's almost certainly not as strong as he needs to be. It's his first year as a pro (and most players his age are finishing out their career in Juniors). It appears that he's a different sort of player than his older brother. Patience, people. Patience.

[Brawndo]

This thread might have just become moot until the summer.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think it's prudent to assume World Juniors is a better predictor of NHL play than AHL play is. Plenty of junior stars have washed out in the NHL.

 

Put another way: how many guys who were 10-goals-or-less guys in the AHL turned into 25+ goal guys in the NHL?

Well, as our smelly colleague mentioned, most kids of his age and talent are still in junior, so his AHL production in his first post-draft season is really apples to oranges compared to players hitting the AHL at 20-21 following a full junior career. How many players go to the AHL at 18 and light it up?

This thread might have just become moot until the summer.

Welp. Cap hit aside, I don't know how anyone could be comfortable going 6 years for Kane. How long before the cumulative effect of those injuries negatively impacts his play?

 

Edit: False alarm! Apparently he's in. FU Brawndo! :p

Edited February 9, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

Well, as our smelly colleague mentioned, most kids of his age and talent are still in junior, so his AHL production in his first post-draft season is really apples to oranges compared to players hitting the AHL at 20-21 following a full junior career. How many players go to the AHL at 18 and light it up?

 

Well, his brother, for one.

 

But it appears that William played two seasons (40+ games (?)) of pro hockey with MODO before moving to the Marlies in January 2015 (and promptly lighting it up).

 

Alex, for his part, played a year in Juniors, and then went to the AHL.

 

People just need to chill.

[TrueBlueGED]

Well, his brother, for one.

 

But it appears that William played two seasons (40+ games (?)) of pro hockey with MODO before moving to the Marlies in January 2015 (and promptly lighting it up).

 

Alex, for his part, played a year in Juniors, and then went to the AHL.

 

People just need to chill.

Right. Maybe he'll never be as good as his brother, maybe he's just behind in development...but the path they took was quite a bit different. I still expect a full offseason of pro strength training will have him ready to go in October.

 

Edit: It's also worth noting that the Marlies are perpetually one of the best AHL teams, so his brother was in a really good situation. The Amerks, meanwhile, are a seemingly permanent mess, and currently playing Bylsma's "I hate scoring at ES" system.

Edited February 9, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

Willie himself has said Alex is better

[darksabre]

So this begs the question: Where does Nylander project to slot, and is keeping Kane long term and for a certain salary detrimental to that? 

[WildCard]

So this begs the question: Where does Nylander project to slot, and is keeping Kane long term and for a certain salary detrimental to that?

Kane's contract shouldn't affect Nylander I'd imagine Edited February 9, 2017 by WildCard

[nfreeman]

To be clear:  I am very far from coming to any conclusions about Nylander in the long term.  My point is simply that it would be crazy to assume that Nylander would fill the putative void, either next year or the following year, that would be created by trading Kane.

[TrueBlueGED]

Kane's contract shouldn't affect Nylander I'd imagine

Yea, I really don't think the choice is Kane or Nylander. I think the question is whether investing a significant contract on Kane prohibits a significant investment in the blue line (barring the miracle of someone taking Bogo's contract).

[dudacek]

I don't think it's prudent to assume World Juniors is a better predictor of NHL play than AHL play is.  Plenty of junior stars have washed out in the NHL.

Being an AHL rookie is tough for physically developed 20 year olds. Right now Nylander is a boy playing with men.

 

I'm pretty sure Tyler Ennis was the last AHL rookie we've had score 20 goals. That happened when he was 21 not 18.

Ennis scored seven points in the WJC as a 19-year-old. Nylander had nine points as a 17-year-old and 12 at 18, leading the tourney in scoring. Jack Eichel had five points at 17 and four at 18.

 

18-year olds in the AHL are rare. Zemgus was one. He had 6 goals and was much more physically developed.

Nylander is a bit over his head right now; it will be interesting to see how that affects his development.

 

But he has NHL skill. I will be stunned if he's not an NHL player. I'd say pre-concussion Ennis is his floor.

Yea, I really don't think the choice is Kane or Nylander. I think the question is whether investing a significant contract on Kane prohibits a significant investment in the blue line (barring the miracle of someone taking Bogo's contract).

Good take.

As far as the blueline goes, Guhle and a big ticket acquisition should balance off Gorges and Kulikov, so I don't think it's a huge problem.

[Georgia Blizzard]

Kane > Stafford, younger, more physical and fits faster game

 

Kane's value is a function of the development of the 5 other power forwards on team/or in Roch (Foligno, Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste and Fasching).  GMTM is building a team with a mixuture of size, speed and skill.  We don't need 6 power forwards, we need 4, at most 5; complement those with some skill wings and two-way centers and you have your forward group.

[Brawndo]

Well, as our smelly colleague mentioned, most kids of his age and talent are still in junior, so his AHL production in his first post-draft season is really apples to oranges compared to players hitting the AHL at 20-21 following a full junior career. How many players go to the AHL at 18 and light it up?

Welp. Cap hit aside, I don't know how anyone could be comfortable going 6 years for Kane. How long before the cumulative effect of those injuries negatively impacts his play?

 

Edit: False alarm! Apparently he's in. FU Brawndo! :p

;)

[Scottysabres]

Kane > Stafford, younger, more physical and fits faster game

 

Kane's value is a function of the development of the 5 other power forwards on team/or in Roch (Foligno, Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste and Fasching).  GMTM is building a team with a mixuture of size, speed and skill.  We don't need 6 power forwards, we need 4, at most 5; complement those with some skill wings and two-way centers and you have your forward group.

Great point.

And Kane and Carrier are the true left handed shots, hence LW.

Foligno I consider a grinder, just my opinion.

Bailey and Baptiste RW.

 

I like Baptiste. Wish he would break out in the A and force a decision.

[Randall Flagg]

Willie himself has said Alex is better

William is wrong, at least at this point. 

 

Right. Maybe he'll never be as good as his brother, maybe he's just behind in development...but the path they took was quite a bit different. I still expect a full offseason of pro strength training will have him ready to go in October.

 

Edit: It's also worth noting that the Marlies are perpetually one of the best AHL teams, so his brother was in a really good situation. The Amerks, meanwhile, are a seemingly permanent mess, and currently playing Bylsma's "I hate scoring at ES" system.

Can Tim hire an AHL GM for them? Is that a thing that teams do? 

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Also, my hesitance on Alex isn't reactionary, he's just not my favorite prospect in the world, and I'm open to the possibility of him being a trade chip if things go our way in the lottery or somewhere else. I'm not seeking to move him just because, though, and am totally fine with waiting to see what he becomes.

Edited February 9, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[That Aud Smell]

Right. Maybe he'll never be as good as his brother, maybe he's just behind in development...

Willie himself has said Alex is better

 

I saw that as well.

 

Also: Good call, Blue, on the Marlies being a really good situation for William Nylander.

 

Yea, I really don't think the choice is Kane or Nylander.

 

Word.

 

Being an AHL rookie is tough for physically developed 20 year olds. Right now Nylander is a boy playing with men.

<snip> 

 

I found this so helpful, and insightful.

[inkman]

Great point.

And Kane and Carrier are the true left handed shots, hence LW.

Foligno I consider a grinder, just my opinion.

Bailey and Baptiste RW.

 

I like Baptiste. Wish he would break out in the A and force a decision.

Both he and Bailey are playing well in the A. They have 18 and 19 goal respectively. That's a 30 goal pace, nothing to sneeze at.

[dudacek]

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Also, my hesitance on Alex isn't reactionary, he's just not my favorite prospect in the world, and I'm open to the possibility of him being a trade chip if things go our way in the lottery or somewhere else. I'm not seeking to move him just because, though, and am totally fine with waiting to see what he becomes.

This is where I am too. I think he is the 2nd most skilled player on the roster.

He will be an NHL player and could make magic with Jack.

 

But he might have more value as trade chip to get something we need more.

I know I'd take Fowler for him, even if Murray (apparently) didn't.

And I'd rather move him than Kane.

[That Aud Smell]

And I'd rather move [Nylander] than Kane.

 

[dudacek]

Given that it will be three years until Nylander hits his stride, yet he probably is worth more in a trade, really.

[TrueBlueGED]

I know there was someone else who loved Nylander as much as me. Was it Thorny? Whoever it was, your help is needed in the Kane thread!

[That Aud Smell]

Given that it will be three years until Nylander hits his stride, yet he probably is worth more in a trade, really.

 

As you can see, my skepticism may have something to do with my small ... well, you get the picture. 

[JJFIVEOH]

There's nothing wrong with being stacked on forwards. It creates trade potential down the road and avoids the need to fill holes. We don't have enough offense as it is, determining whether Kane should be here or not on the future of a prospect who has never played an NHL game is risky. You take what works now and deal with the potential overflow down the road. I'd love for the Sabres to be put in a situation where they might need to trade any of the top six forwards simply because there is too many to go around............ than to be sitting 8 points out of a playoff spot for another year because the forward depth wasn't addressed. 

[Brawndo]

"What I see now is what traded for and I'm a fan of his game," - GMTM says on @WGR550 about Evander Kane #Sabres

 

Murray said he has not made a call to trade Kane and is not shopping him, but he'll listen to others.