Brewing goaltender controversy? Sabres get points with Nilsson in goal

[Stoner]

It's probably being discussed elsewhere, but I think it deserves a thread.

 

Cutting right to the chase, the Sabres have taken 15 of 24 points with Nilsson the goaltender of record. 6-3-3. That's slightly more than a 100-point season pace.

 

They have taken 21 of 50 points with Lehner. 8-12-5

 

Who starts in Chicago will be very telling. Why on earth would it be Lehner?

[bunomatic]

Should go with the hot hand as most good hockey coaches do. Wins are far more important at this point than hurt feelings. Maybe its what Lehner needs to get his head straight ?

[darksabre]

I would continue starting Nilsson. 

[Doohicksie]

As of a game or two ago, they were virtually identical in terms of SV% and GAA.  A couple bad games by Lehner against Boston and a good one for Nilsson and now Nilsson has the advantage (.928/2.35 vs. .921/2.51).  In terms of points the Sabres have gathered per game started though, it's not even close; Nilsson is at 1.25 points earned per game versus .84.  I would ride the hot hand to see if the team truly does win more with Nilsson or if the point per game number slips eventually.

[woods-racer]

Please, before we go any further I would like the best pronunciation of Nilsson's name. It had to have been said 5 different ways on last nights NBCSN broadcast.

 

To me it's Nils Son. The son of Nils

 

Thank you, I will hang up and listen.

[bob_sauve28]

If you can point to one thing DB has done wrong its sticking with Lehner 

 

 

And not playing Bailey! 

[That Aud Smell]

Should go with the hot hand as most good hockey coaches do. Wins are far more important at this point than hurt feelings. Maybe its what Lehner needs to get his head straight ?

 

Yes, please.

 

I did not see the entire game - maybe 2/3 total. Several times in the second, though, I was impressed with how quiet and well positioned Nilsson was on dangerous opportunities. I cannot imagine a reason not to ride him until he falters, and then release the Lehner kraken, who will hopefully be newly motivated by then.

[TheAud]

Their performance ,largely in terms of save %, have been pretty close this season, except as pointed out above the last few games have given Nilsson a small advantage. I would expect over time that advantage will disappear. Based on lifetime performance I'd expect Lehner to be the better goalie over time but that's not to say that we couldn't  A) Ride the Hot Hand or B) Experience the Devan Dubnyk Scenario. (Big goalie looks average or below average for a period of years then suddenly becomes an All-Star). It will take a 'few' more games to convince me we are seeing B, but I am fine with A based on Nilsson's play last night, Lehner's marginal play vs. Boston, and Lehner's terrible shoot-out performance (although in fairness, Nilsson has been lousy there too, just not as bad). 

[Eleven]

No controversy.  Start Nilsson.

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

im all set with seeing more pucks eek through Lehner's pads over and over again. and you can see it all the way back to McDavid's OT goal in the spring. 

[richnjoisy]

Am I the only one that has noticed how much better Nilsson plays the puck?

[nfreeman]

It occurs to me that GMTM, unlike his predecessor, has done a pretty good job in finding backup goalies -- both Ocho and Nilsson have been quite good.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

No controversy.  Start Nilsson.

 

I agree, as I posted in the NYR GDT.

 

There is no controversy, IMO.  Start the best playing goalie at the time, until they are not.  NIL SON!!

[Randall Flagg]

The goal support difference was stark. Maybe two weeks ago, the stat was something like:

14 goals in Nilsson's previous 4 starts

4 goals in Lehner's previous 4 starts

 

The whole season has seen that to a degree. So the amount of wins each guy has doesn't mean much to me. Nilsson has looked good most games but has also shown the side of him that finished with a barely .900 save percentage after a strong start to his Edmonton season. I don't expect Nilsson to continue looking this good. But as long as he does, I'd start him I guess.

[LTS]

As of a game or two ago, they were virtually identical in terms of SV% and GAA.  A couple bad games by Lehner against Boston and a good one for Nilsson and now Nilsson has the advantage (.928/2.35 vs. .921/2.51).  In terms of points the Sabres have gathered per game started though, it's not even close; Nilsson is at 1.25 points earned per game versus .84.  I would ride the hot hand to see if the team truly does win more with Nilsson or if the point per game number slips eventually.

 

Also interestingly enough the Sabres give up an average of 1 more shot per game when Nilsson is in net.  If I did the math correctly Lehner is averaging 31.07 shots per game and Nilsson 32.25.  Now I am not sure how many shots attempted there were.. that would take longer to figure out..

 

I'd start Nilsson.  He looks more composed overall.

[Claude Balls]

Maybe its what Lehner needs to get his head straight ?

He needs something, maybe meds. He is one intense dude. The past few games he was visibly upset after each goal he let in. Seemed like he was getting upset with himself and not his teammates. I think a few games on the bench would do him good.

[dudacek]

Flagg nailed it.

Nilsson and Lehner have had virtually identical games this year, with Lehner getting the tougher workload and no goal support.

You guys are grasping at a mirage.

 

That said, I'm fine with Nilsson getting a back-to-back start because

A) he's played well

B) the season has become about finding out what works.

 

If Lehner is too fragile to handle it, then that doesn't speak well about him.

He's hardly earned King Henrik status.

[SabresBaltimore]

I'd like to see what we have in Nilsson. He's been playing above his career stats this year, but it's a very small sample size. The goal support stat is telling. Why does he get more goals out of the team when he starts? Easier match-ups? Does the team just play harder in front of him for some reason? Fluke?

[darksabre]

Flagg nailed it.

Nilsson and Lehner have had virtually identical games this year, with Lehner getting the tougher workload and no goal support.

You guys are grasping at a mirage.

 

That said, I'm fine with Nilsson getting a back-to-back start because

A) he's played well

B) the season has become about finding out what works.

 

If Lehner is too fragile to handle it, then that doesn't speak well about him.

He's hardly earned King Henrik status.

I don't think it's grasping at a mirage. Goal support isn't an accident. There's got to be something going on here. 

[Tondas]

Got to go with Nilsson tomorrow.  He's much calmer and in control than Lehner.  Lehner has a tendency to overplay the puck, especially on wraparound attempts.

[spndnchz]

Got to go with Nilsson tomorrow.  He's much calmer and in control than Lehner.  Lehner has a tendency to overplay the puck, especially on wraparound attempts.

I like Nilsson better myself. I would like to see more of him to evaluate if it's the team that plays better with him in net or if it's just him.

 

Btw, Hasek never looked calm or in control either.

[NNYSABRESMAN]

Nilsson can control rebounds. With Lehner in goal they scatter like candy being thrown at a parade.

[Doohicksie]

Am I the only one that has noticed how much better Nilsson plays the puck?

 

No, you're not the only one.  Rebound control especially is much better with Nilsson.  It seems like shots either bounce off him and into the corner, or they drop right in front of him and he or a defender can deal with it.  With Lehner there seems to be more of a tendency to kick them right back out into the slot.  And as others have said, Nilsson seems to move more efficiently in that he doesn't overshoot his position on a save and is more likely to be in better position to stop a potential rebound.

 

And right now anyway, Nilsson just seems to be luckier.  There was a point blank shot yesterday that the NBCSN crew gave high praise to Nilsson and even showed what a great job he did using a replay.  And on the replay it's pretty clear the puck never got to the crease; it hit Bogo in front and caromed into the corner.  With Lehner's luck lately it would have found a hole through Bogo and would have gone into the top corner, or it would have hit Bogo and bounced right back to a Ranger in the slot.

I'd like to see what we have in Nilsson. He's been playing above his career stats this year, but it's a very small sample size. The goal support stat is telling. Why does he get more goals out of the team when he starts? Easier match-ups? Does the team just play harder in front of him for some reason? Fluke?

 

He beat the Rags twice.  What about the Rags says "easy"?   They're in s solid playoff position.

[pi2000]

It's probably being discussed elsewhere, but I think it deserves a thread.

 

Cutting right to the chase, the Sabres have taken 15 of 24 points with Nilsson the goaltender of record. 6-3-3. That's slightly more than a 100-point season pace.

 

They have taken 21 of 50 points with Lehner. 8-12-5

 

Who starts in Chicago will be very telling. Why on earth would it be Lehner?

 

Nilsson has been good, but he's playing against weaker opponents so his numbers are artificially inflated.    

[Doohicksie]

Nilsson has been good, but he's playing against weaker opponents so his numbers are artificially inflated.    

 

The Rangers are "easy"?