Murray and Bylmsa: how long will they stay together?

[dudacek]

Because the conversation in the gameday thread is one well worth having.

This game was supposed to help round out the end of the push against teams around us to spring us into a playoff spot. We’ve looked miserable for the last 4 or 5 games and don’t deserve any of the points we’ve had.

 

Let’s look at the Hurricanes. They’ve been completely devoid of star talent for a while. Over the past two seasons on the forums and the internet in general, I’ve heard about how they’re actually a good possession team that plays solid hockey. They just lack game-breaking talent. I checked it out – both their CF% and FF% were above 50 last season, both were top 12 in the NHL. They were dead last in PDO. This fits what they look like – a team that can play, but can’t score, and that has gotten some terrible tending from Lack and Ward.

 

They’re 7th in CF% this season and 11th in FF% so far this season, but are still second-last in PDO. The PDO is going to climb though, because their first ~12 games were absolutely miserable. They’ve scored more since then, Skinner, Rask, Teravainen, Aho have been playing very well. I’d trade any piece on this team not named ROR/Reinhart/Eichel/Risto for Slavin, and Faulk/Hanifin/Pesce help make a pretty good d-corps.

 

Until they get an Eichel type, they’re going to struggle to score, but Bill Peters has them maximizing everything they can. He knows they have a mobile defensive unit that is green but incredibly talented. He knows their goaltending is suspect. Look at their lineup tonight, at forward. Why is that team absolutely killing us? Why don’t we look like we’re in the same league with the puck, when we have 5 20 goal scorers from last season plus a Moulson and a Gionta who are on that pace this year as well? Carolina had three guys score 20 last year. We can’t make the excuse that their talent is on a different level. Ours is. So what is wrong? Why did we go a SIX MINUTE STRETCH tonight without so much as having a puck on our stick in the offensive zone? They waited for us to chip, forced it otherwise, took the puck, seamlessly got into the zone every time (with soooo much more skill than we have in their lineup, how can we expect that from our guys? /sarcasm) and made us look like idiots. They dominated us. They were playing hockey, and we are stuck in the dead-puck-era.

 

Neutral zone structure, puck support, high percentage plays that generally aim to maintain possession of the puck. That’s how Carolina plays.

 

Tim Murray has brought in Kulikov and Bogosian as top four additions to this team. They play together right now. I think we all know what these two players bring. They can transition the puck and can skate faster than average. They are prone to major lapses in the d-zone. They can hit too, but that’s not relevant to what we’re talking about. We are asking them to do exactly what they are bad at – low percentage, lightning fast decisions. Get the puck up to the evacuated wingers and do it fast and fit it in a tiny window. 99% of the time it doesn’t work and Carolina comes streaking right back in. These two, and McCabe, can skate very well. They don’t get activated in the offensive zone and rarely get involved in neutral zone play. We are using our defensemen for their weaknesses. Tim has to see this. He knows why he acquired these guys and he has to see that his coach doesn’t coach a style conducive to the players he brought in. I’m starting to think that this, combined with the way our team can’t start a game, has started Bylsma’s countdown.

               

I’ve posted this a lot but I’ll do it again because I think it’s having a new effect on our players. We just don’t play hockey between the blue lines like good teams. We’re a decade behind right now. We spend so much time chasing loose pucks and not creating and manipulating space. We intentionally give it up after finally getting it back, hoping that our two LA-style wingers, Kane and Foligno, can get it back. Half of our shifts those guys aren’t even on the ice. Carolina has spent the last 110 games practicing what they do, playing hockey with 5 players on the ice, and they’re getting good at it despite their deficiencies. We’re getting fed up and getting frustrated and sloppy, and look worse and worse. There’s no more confidence in any of these guys with the puck on their sticks. They don’t practice creating and using space, they don’t practice fast decisions to exploit teams that put immediate pressure on the puck-carrier, and they look lost at sea and teams like Carolina know exactly how to handle it. They force the pressure, they get the puck, and they know how to not give it back. This is not a talented team we played, but it sure is a team that knows how to play effective hockey. Our players are starting to know that what they do isn’t working.

 

Disco’s gotta go. I don’t even care that we can’t start on time. I don’t care about line combos. I care about turning Sam into Moulson, about not putting our stars into the positions that other young stars around the league are getting. I’m tired of watching Matthews obliterate all rookies of the past 20 years with unheard of scoring-chance-generation while Jack’s skills are being used dicking around on the boards and wringing pucks back to the point for shots to go into shinpads. I’m tired of his explosive games being called “not how we want to play” and being snuffed out for the ensuing five. And I’m worried that we’re damaging their development curves.

 

 

Flagg, thanks for continuing to carry the torch for intelligent hockey talk.

 

For me, your post boils down to this: the GM has built a team that is not suited to the way the coach chooses to play.

Dan will be gone sooner or later. I'm fine with sooner.

 

 

Agree on the entire post, which I shall not quote for the sake of eyes. But what I bolded here? And it may just be negative vibes from a terrible game talking...but my gravest worry is that Murray is on board with Bylsma's style of play and wants to be LA-East...but has failed in colossal fashion in acquiring the right pieces (whether it's because he couldn't, or worse, he thinks the collected pieces fit the style...).

 

 

Okposo signing was good, but signings like Moulson and Franson have been disastrous.

What other draft picks are we celebrating? The jury is basically out on everyone.

The team was loaddd with assets when he got here. He's traded away a ton and all we have to show for it is a slow team with a weak defense. Without Eichel, we're still a bottom 5 team.

It's been 2 years. He's a t-shirt, not a genius GM.

 

 

I want GM TM to be asked that directly: Do you favour pr envision a style of play and if so what is it? And if not what do you think of Hot Daniel's dump, chase, board rattling?

The Sabres are not on a forward path.

[Samson's Flow]

Sounds like the board is circling the wagons for Bylsmas demise.

 

I can't say that it's wrong given the blatant unwillingness to play possession hockey despite one of the best possession and zone entry players in Eichel

Edited December 23, 2016 by Touched by Boyes

[dudacek]

Let's look at Murray's acquisitions:

 

Moulson, Gorges and Gionta were basically bridges: character guys to prevent us from becoming the Oilers from the tank.

Not really ever expected to be part of the overall vision, and I'd say Franson fits that as well. He filled a role.

 

Jack and Sam were picked because Murray thought they were the most talented offensive players available.

 

I think it's the other guys that matter.

 

Carrier and Fasching are possession guys, board players who can skate and drive the net with the puck.

Kane is a more talented version of the above.

O'Reilly carries the puck in traffic and forces turnovers better than most players in the league.

Okposo is a mix of O'Reilly and Kane.

Bogosian and Kulikov are big strong bodies who can skate and carry the puck.

 

This isn't an open-ice free-skating and passing team. It's a team that's built to go get the puck and keep it.

Edited December 23, 2016 by dudacek

[Taro T]

Let's look at Murray's acquisitions:

 

Moulson, Gorges and Gionta were basically bridges: character guys to prevent us from becoming the Oilers from the tank.

Not really ever expected to be part of the overall vision, and I'd say Franson fits that as well. He filled a role.

 

Jack and Sam were picked because Murray thought they were the most talented offensive players available.

 

I think it's the other guys that matter.

 

Carrier and Fasching are possession guys, board players who can skate and drive the net with the puck.

Kane is a more talented version of the above.

O'Reilly carries the puck in traffic better than most players in the league.

Okposo is a mix of O'Reilly and Kane.

Bogosian and Kulikov are big strong bodies who can skate and carry the puck.

 

This isn't an open-ice free-skating and passing team. It's a team that's built to go get the puck and keep it.

And yet, after they get the puck, they dump it in & have to re-battle to get it back.

[dudacek]

And yet, after they get the puck, they dump it in & have to re-battle to get it back.

 

Yep. It's the missing link isn't it?

 

Kane, ROR, Risto, KO, and especially Jack. Ennis too.

Hell, to a lesser extent Kulikov, Bogo, McCabe from the back end.

 

We've got guys who can carry the puck.

Why aren't they allowed to?

Edited December 23, 2016 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

Why aren't they allowed to?

 

Repeated for "hit the nail on the head."

[Jacque Richard]

Ole pegula is not loving what he is seeing from both crappy franchises I bet

[Wyldnwoody44]

Ole pegula is not loving what he is seeing

from both crappy franchises I bet

He's enjoying the revenue I am sure.... He has 2 toys, and an oil company to run.....something tells me he's not day to day worrying about the teams as much as we may think.

[PromoTheRobot]

Ay yi yi, can they find anyone better than Gorges turning the puck over?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Please see my post in the fire the coach thread.

[nfreeman]

Wow.  Excellent post by Flagg to get this going.

 

I'm not sure how qualified we are (most of us, anyway) to evaluate Xs and Os, but I do think that it's reasonably likely that DDB was at least as much of a TP hire as he was a GMTM hire.  TP has shown a proclivity for the splashy, big-name coach hire, and it's at least plausible that he's taken this decision out of the GM's hands.

 

I also think it's reasonably likely that GMTM expected much more out of this team than what we're seeing now (although TBPhD's point about GMTM possibly preferring Kings East as a style of play shouldn't be overlooked here).  If so, and if this continues for another dozen games, he's gotta start thinking about making a change.  I can't say I'd be unhappy if that's how it plays out.

[Sabel79]

I'd expect something to happen after the roster freeze gets lifted.  Wouldn't hold my breath that it'll be major or that it'll turn things around.  DDB is likely safe until the end of the year. 

 

How this team ended up one ankle sprain from frustrating mediocrity is beyond me, but that's where we are. 

[woods-racer]

Can we do a poll on how long Dan is here?

 

There is an assistant coach 3 feet from Dan on the bench that has a decade(?) of NHL head coaching experience that I'm sure could fill the *interim* coaching void.

 

My bet has been and will remain ...

 

It will happen during the all star break.

[Stoner]

Wow.  Excellent post by Flagg to get this going.

 

I'm not sure how qualified we are (most of us, anyway) to evaluate Xs and Os, but I do think that it's reasonably likely that DDB was at least as much of a TP hire as he was a GMTM hire.  TP has shown a proclivity for the splashy, big-name coach hire, and it's at least plausible that he's taken this decision out of the GM's hands.

 

I also think it's reasonably likely that GMTM expected much more out of this team than what we're seeing now (although TBPhD's point about GMTM possibly preferring Kings East as a style of play shouldn't be overlooked here).  If so, and if this continues for another dozen games, he's gotta start thinking about making a change.  I can't say I'd be unhappy if that's how it plays out.

So, meddling? Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

I asked in the other thread how it would work if Murray wants to fire Bylsma and Pegula is all, no way, not yet, no Panic at the Disco.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

So, meddling? Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

I asked in the other thread how it would work if Murray wants to fire Bylsma and Pegula is all, no way, not yet, no Panic at the Disco.

 

Oh my ...

 

 

*burn down the disco*

[R_Dudley]

I have been living in Pittsburgh since the early 90's. I never liked or was on board with the hiring of DB after seeing him here for a few years with the Pens. What you are seeing now with the Sabres is exactly what Blysma was doing with the Pen's that ultimately got him fired.

 

As the style of hockey was changing years back to the speed or possession styles in vogue today he was not with talented Pens team.  Constant line shuffling, playing your better possession centers as wings, limiting your offensive defense men like Kris Letang to a dump and don't carry style. Lucky for the Pens Mario recognized the way hockey could be played with the players they had and acquired for where the league is now.

 

I feel like I am wasting my center Ice watching 1990's hockey every time I tune a Sabres game. Watching many of the other games available where hockey is actually being played makes the Sabres style even harder to watch for a whole game.  It's a shame too because there finally does appear to be a good solid core and finally some real depth at Center.

 

Yes fire Dan Please and pass the torch too the assistant Murray.            

[Huckleberry]

Have I said I want Ruff back ?

[Stoner]

Hey duds! Good to see you.

[Randall Flagg]

I'm a little worried by True's worry that GMTM might be okay with the style that Dan coaches, but there are a few things to me that stem this.

 

1.) We certainly have acquired Kings-style wingers, and he listed Foligno in his core of players a few years ago, which surprised almost everyone on this board. Not because we didn't like Foligno, he just didn't seem like a core-type player. Yes, the Kings won the cup playing Sutter hockey, but Kopitar-Carter-pre-terrible Richards-good Gaborik-Toffoli-Pearson etc. would absolutely be able to play in a system like Bill Peters' we saw last night, and would be a lot more dangerous than the Canes were. Okposo and ROR are incredibly smart, as is Reinhart. There is a place for a healthy and trying Kane on any third line in the league. Jack can keep up with everyone else mentally and is worlds ahead skill-wise. I don't think our roster building is "limiting" us to a boring and ineffective style of hockey, and I think this roster could play very well in a wide variety of systems (learning systems is a new thing to me, I only really started focusing on it at some point last year.)

 

2.) Murray has said he values puck-moving defensemen and the way we play right now doesn't use them to handle the puck much. We all want elite puck-movers, but Karlsson and Letang and Burns aren't coming free anytime soon. Remember when Schultz was the worst defenseman in the league last year, playing in Edmonton who had no idea how to use him? He just went on an 8 game, 12 point stretch in Pittsburgh and looked great in the playoffs. Same thing with Trevor Daley, who the Hawks had acquired and who was terrible there for some reason. They took freaking Scuderi for him, and then waived Scuderi. But Daley and Schultz both went nuts when they were utilized correctly and were huge pieces in the Penguins' cup run. Murray looked to do the same thing with Kulikov. He's obviously not perfect and is sometimes flat-out terrible in the defensive zone, but his skills are being wasted because we don't use defensemen in the rush except to stretch the puck up to forwards and we don't use them in the o-zone except to stand at the point and wrist hail marys on goal. When was the last time you saw McCabe creeping down the weak side looking for a pass? The last time I saw it was last March in Pittsburgh and he scored a goal doing it. When Risto comes down the boards doing his thing every once in a while, we all lose our . Woah Risto look at that!! And then you turn on Tampa and see Hedman, Stralman, Garrison, Koekkoek do it all in consecutive shifts. Oh. 

 

Murray acquired two flawed defensemen whose strengths involve transitioning the puck and he knows that they aren't used for it. I really do think there's a disconnect. So ultimately I'm not as worried as True might be, and Dudacek's list of Kings-type players is totally fine by me acquisition-wise. 

[TrueBlueGED]

It all hinges on what Murray wants. Scenarios:

 

1) Murray wants LA-East: Bylsma is safe at least through this time next season. Though a staple of those LA teams, a heavy two-man forecheck, is something Bylsma rarely employs, so there is not complete safety here. They agree on vision, but not tactics.

 

2) Murray wants a Pens-style attack: Bylsma's clock is ticking, though one has to wonder how such a disconnect happened.

 

3) They're totally on the same page from vision to tactics, but also both recognize the roster isn't there to pull it off: Bylsma is safe until the time the roster is "set."

 

4) Murray thinks the team is better than its results, even if he and Bylsma agree on approach: Bylsma's clock is ticking.

 

Two style based, two results based. Of these, I think 1 & 3 are the most likely for right now, with 4 coming into play depending how the rest of the season plays out. Hard to know how viable #2 is without being inside the interviews. Did Bylsma say what he had to say to get the job? Maybe he was completely sincere, but has fallen back to what he's comfortable with rather than truly changing. Regardless, if #2 truly is the case, that has to be concerning for any subsequent coaching hires (there's a reason I labeled it #2).

 

In any event, I find a hard time seeing Bylsma's job in real jeopardy before the end of the season unless the wheels completely fall off while the roster is healthy, which I don't think is especially likely. I also think that once Bylsma is fired, the clock starts ticking on Murray--the next coach had better be the right coach.

[Jsixspd]

Ay yi yi, can they find anyone better than Gorges turning the puck over?

Gorges is having statistically the worst season of his entire 13 season NHL career if it continues.  His productivity is 556 minutes, 3x to 4x worse than his previous 2 seasons with the Sabres.  His PIM rate is a tie for his worst year ever, last season.    He's got ONE point after 29 games!!!

 

His performance has been worse since he came to Buffalo - and this is the worst of the worst so far.   Perhaps the way he's being coached and used in the game is to blame?   He's never been strong with defensive assists, but this is a Leino-esque  performance.    

[Jacque Richard]

Everything is ticking I would say right after the bills season ends the heat will be on.

[dudacek]

Murray would certainly deal Gorges to a contender at the deadline if there was interest.

I'm betting there would be, a la Mike Weber, if he didn't have another year after this one.

 

*****

 

I'm not saying Murray wasn't on board with Bylsma, but you know they were fixated on a big name coaching hire. They went hard after Babcock and didn't interview anyone other than Dan after Mike fell through.

 

You don't have to be PA to see the connectable dots to Pegula in that strategy.

 

I will say that it is highly likely that Tim is ready to fire Dan well before Terry is.

[Jacque Richard]

Then expect the SOS then.

[Stoner]

Murray would certainly deal Gorges to a contender at the deadline if there was interest.

I'm betting there would be, a la Mike Weber, if he didn't have another year after this one.

 

*****

 

I'm not saying Murray wasn't on board with Bylsma, but you know they were fixated on a big name coaching hire. They went hard after Babcock and didn't interview anyone other than Dan after Mike fell through.

 

You don't have to be PA to see the connectable dots to Pegula in that strategy.

 

I will say that it is highly likely that Tim is ready to fire Dan well before Terry is.

Does Tim seem like the sort of guy who's going to put up with that? (OTOH, now I'm flashing back to a comment Tim made when he got hired, something his uncle told him: remember, you've got a boss (the owner). Paraphrasing and perhaps not remembering it correctly. Google is not helping.)