The even randomer thread

[BagBoy]

On 3/12/2020 at 2:53 PM, WildCard said:

I'm about to start buying some of these stocks, anyone have a recommendation of the best way/place to do that?

When I was younger, I was convinced there was "a path" to consistently making money in the market, and then I found William J O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks", which proved my assumption correct.  I can't recommend it highly enough.  Like anything else good in life, the knowledge you gain from reading it will only be a small part of the equation.  There will be a lot of work involved, namely constant research and vigilance.

In a nutshell, here is the gist of it.  There are 2 main components.  Find sound, viable companies.  Then figure out the optimal time to invest in and sell them.

For finding sound, viable companies, think CANSLIM.  You will need to find companies that best fit the CANSLIM profile.

C - Current quarterly earnings (QE).  Look for companies with not only exceptional current QE, but rising QE.

A - Annual Earnings.  Same as C.  You want both A and C to eliminate flash in the pan companies and anomalies.

N - New.  New product, new industry, new demand, new CEO, new marketing strategy, etc.  If you want a company's stock to really make some noise, don't expect them to do it by doing nothing innovative or avoiding change.

S - Supply and Demand - This relates mostly to the number of shares available in the market of a given stock.  Big companies generally have too many shares in the market to allow for big moves.  Companies with tiny market shares can be too vulnerable to any negativity.  Companies buying back their own stock is a very positive indicator here.

L - Leader or Laggard.  This not only refers to the industry involved, but how well the company in question is doing against its peers within that industry.  

I - Institutional Sponsorship - Institutions like mutual funds, pension funds, etc. are the biggest consumers of stocks.  We're talking like 80% of sales here.  It doesn't matter how "right" you are about how good a stock is.  If the institutions are selling, you will likely lose money.  You must understand what institutional money is doing in relation to a prospective stock.

M - Market direction.  This one is very self evident today.  It is very difficult for even good stocks to make money in bad markets.  Making money in the market very often means knowing when to preserve your capital by getting/staying out of the market and getting into cash/bonds/fixed interest, etc.

That's CANSLIM.  The other part is learning the timing of buying and selling (Technical Analysis) and it's even more challenging, but just as (if not more so) vital to the big picture.  It involves reading stock charts.  The most important part is understanding the relation of how stocks move up or down, and the volume of shares traded associated with that given time period.  A big daily gain in a stock is fine, but if it comes with minimal volume, beware.  If you read (and study) William J O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks" you will also learn to identify chart patterns in individual stocks that will present you with wonderful opportunities to make money (and avoid losing money).  These are patterns that have been consistently re-occurring for well over 100 years with the same results.

None of this ***** is easy, but if it were it wouldn't be any fun.  If you are game, start by reading the book obviously.  The next step is to subscribe to Investor's Business Daily which was founded by William J O'Neil, and devour it daily.  I love the guy, but he's a right wing extremist, so avoid the editorial page like the plague  if you're a Dem like me.

Thanks to what I learned from Mr. O'Neil, I could smell the stench rising in this market months ago and have been unaffected by recent results, because I got out of the market almost completely.  I liquidated in October, because there were so many days the market gained on low volume, while losing ground on high volume.  Granted I missed out on 20-25% gains from October to the recent high, but I have no regrets about that.   

[Tondas]

16 minutes ago, BagBoy said:

When I was younger, I was convinced there was "a path" to consistently making money in the market, and then I found William J O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks", which proved my assumption correct.  I can't recommend it highly enough.  Like anything else good in life, the knowledge you gain from reading it will only be a small part of the equation.  There will be a lot of work involved, namely constant research and vigilance.

In a nutshell, here is the gist of it.  There are 2 main components.  Find sound, viable companies.  Then figure out the optimal time to invest in and sell them.

For finding sound, viable companies, think CANSLIM.  You will need to find companies that best fit the CANSLIM profile.

C - Current quarterly earnings (QE).  Look for companies with not only exceptional current QE, but rising QE.

A - Annual Earnings.  Same as C.  You want both A and C to eliminate flash in the pan companies and anomalies.

N - New.  New product, new industry, new demand, new CEO, new marketing strategy, etc.  If you want a company's stock to really make some noise, don't expect them to do it by doing nothing innovative or avoiding change.

S - Supply and Demand - This relates mostly to the number of shares available in the market of a given stock.  Big companies generally have too many shares in the market to allow for big moves.  Companies with tiny market shares can be too vulnerable to any negativity.  Companies buying back their own stock is a very positive indicator here.

L - Leader or Laggard.  This not only refers to the industry involved, but how well the company in question is doing against its peers within that industry.  

I - Institutional Sponsorship - Institutions like mutual funds, pension funds, etc. are the biggest consumers of stocks.  We're talking like 80% of sales here.  It doesn't matter how "right" you are about how good a stock is.  If the institutions are selling, you will likely lose money.  You must understand what institutional money is doing in relation to a prospective stock.

M - Market direction.  This one is very self evident today.  It is very difficult for even good stocks to make money in bad markets.  Making money in the market very often means knowing when to preserve your capital by getting/staying out of the market and getting into cash/bonds/fixed interest, etc.

That's CANSLIM.  The other part is learning the timing of buying and selling (Technical Analysis) and it's even more challenging, but just as (if not more so) vital to the big picture.  It involves reading stock charts.  The most important part is understanding the relation of how stocks move up or down, and the volume of shares traded associated with that given time period.  A big daily gain in a stock is fine, but if it comes with minimal volume, beware.  If you read (and study) William J O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks" you will also learn to identify chart patterns in individual stocks that will present you with wonderful opportunities to make money (and avoid losing money).  These are patterns that have been consistently re-occurring for well over 100 years with the same results.

None of this ***** is easy, but if it were it wouldn't be any fun.  If you are game, start by reading the book obviously.  The next step is to subscribe to Investor's Business Daily which was founded by William J O'Neil, and devour it daily.  I love the guy, but he's a right wing extremist, so avoid the editorial page like the plague  if you're a Dem like me.

Thanks to what I learned from Mr. O'Neil, I could smell the stench rising in this market months ago and have been unaffected by recent results, because I got out of the market almost completely.  I liquidated in October, because there were so many days the market gained on low volume, while losing ground on high volume.  Granted I missed out on 20-25% gains from October to the recent high, but I have no regrets about that.   

Your strategy seems fine but it will take a lot of your time.  I suggest you read, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor", written by John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard.  His strategy takes very little time and is quantitatively backed up by data over decades.  Following his strategy is why I have so much time to post on this board!

[BagBoy]

7 minutes ago, Tondas said:

Your strategy seems fine but it will take a lot of your time.  I suggest you read, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor", written by John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard.  His strategy takes very little time and is quantitatively backed up by data over decades.  Following his strategy is why I have so much time to post on this board!

In my younger days I was definitely doing the mutual fund thing.  But I just had a problem with the huge percentage the mutual fund companies were taking.  I would very much prefer ETF's to mutual funds today.

Edited March 19, 2020 by BagBoy

[Tondas]

19 minutes ago, BagBoy said:

In my younger days I was definitely doing the mutual fund thing.  But I just had a problem with the huge percentage the mutual fund companies were taking.  I would very much prefer ETF's to mutual funds today.

Great point.  Although there are low cost mutual funds in the market, ETF's are hard to beat.   If I had to do it again, I'd go ETF's (although they weren't born when I started to invest).  But hey, I'm 58 and retired for 3 years so I'm not going to be a dick and complain.  ?

[SwampD]

I was talking to my friend last night about wild caught Alaskan salmon. The topic just sort of came up as it’s an issue he works on. I did not do a search for it. I was on a landline with my iPhone on the desk next to me.

Today, the banner ad on a site I went to was for wild caught Alaskan salmon.

[darksabre]

7 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I was talking to my friend last night about wild caught Alaskan salmon. The topic just sort of came up as it’s an issue he works on. I did not do a search for it. I was on a landline with my iPhone on the desk next to me.

Today, the banner ad on a site I went to was for wild caught Alaskan salmon.

This happens to me with stuff all the time. It's very creepy.

[shrader]

8 minutes ago, darksabre said:

This happens to me with stuff all the time. It's very creepy.

All I get now are banner ads for surgical masks.  I'd much rather deal with the targeted ads right now instead of those.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

All I get now are banner ads for surgical masks.  I'd much rather deal with the targeted ads right now instead of those.

Stop talking about surgical masks, then.

[Stoner]

25 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I was talking to my friend last night about wild caught Alaskan salmon. The topic just sort of came up as it’s an issue he works on. I did not do a search for it. I was on a landline with my iPhone on the desk next to me.

Today, the banner ad on a site I went to was for wild caught Alaskan salmon.

Bury the iPhone out back. Call up your friend and talk about ribbed, remote-controlled dildos. Open up google. Report back.

[shrader]

5 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Stop talking about surgical masks, then.

It's all from this board.  Me personally, I've never run into the issue you mentioned, but I've seen enough stories to believe that the phones are definitely doing that. 

[SwampD]

6 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Bury the iPhone out back. Call up your friend and talk about ribbed, remote-controlled dildos. Open up google. Report back.

I already get those.

Pick something else.

[Stoner]

Don Van Massenhoven signature turtlenecks.

[SwampD]

Sometimes, the answer is just,... dogs.

 

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

Sometimes, the answer is just,... dogs.

Imagine being able to be that happy about a pile of leaves.  Dogs have it down, man.  They're even better than toddlers.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Eleven

[Tondas]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

Sometimes, the answer is just,... dogs.

 

When I was 14, that's the way I would  chase a team dump in..  Today I think, WTF was I thinking.  Oh wait, I was 14 and not thinking.

[Ogre]

27 minutes ago, Tondas said:

Oh wait, I was 14 and not thinking

You were thinking.....Don't BS me man.....

[Tondas]

3 minutes ago, Ogre said:

You were thinking.....Don't BS me man.....

You got me, I was invincible then, not too much now.  Actually not at all now.  I get intimidated at a Walmart check out line.  They're frickin'' vicious.

[Ogre]

2 minutes ago, Tondas said:

You got me, I was invincible then, not too much now.  Actually not at all now.  I get intimidated at a Walmart check out line.  They're frickin'' vicious.

I meant more along the lines of what a typical 14 year old boy is thinking....constantly.....also willing to dive into things head first.

[Tondas]

10 minutes ago, Ogre said:

I meant more along the lines of what a typical 14 year old boy is thinking....constantly.....also willing to dive into things head first.

OK.  I get you now.  Believe  me, I used both hands if "other options" were not available.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Tondas

[Indabuff]

10 minutes ago, Ogre said:

I meant more along the lines of what a typical 14 year old boy is thinking....constantly.....also willing to dive into things head first.

An Algebra book? 

[Ogre]

Just now, Indabuff said:

An Algebra book? 

How good are you at math?

 

[Indabuff]

46 minutes ago, Ogre said:

How good are you at math?

 

Terrible, hence why I had a "good time" in high school.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Indabuff

[shrader]

Today I learned that I’ll probably get pulled into covid research and that my neighbor is a good friend of Darcy. Busy day. 

[dudacek]

On 3/20/2020 at 7:59 PM, shrader said:

Today I learned that I’ll probably get pulled into covid research and that my neighbor is a good friend of Darcy. Busy day. 

Darcy Regier?

He sure went off the grid, didn’t he?

[darksabre]

Just now, dudacek said:

Darcy Regier?

He sure went off the grid, didn’t he?

The fan theory is that he really didn't like being involved in that John Scott scandal in Arizona.