GDT: Raleigh @ Buffalo 7:00 pm EST, 12/22/2016

[JJFIVEOH]

Not really sure what's been going on with this place over the last couple of days, but there is business that needs to be attended to. After all, this is a Sabres forum and somebody needs to break the ice!! (Hopefully, not literally............. Carolina did that already this week)

 

The Hurricanes have had a couple of days off in what is turning out to be a home and home for them as their game against the Red Wings got postponed. 

 

The Sabres have played in three straight extra inning games and have lost two straight shootouts. While many like to blame Lehner for the extra points lost, he's only had three of them this year. And he's been very steady in net during the games. He deserves better. The Sabres are looking to start strong for a change, would be a nice change to actually have a lead going into the 3rd period. 

 

I don't have any updates on the lineup and line combinations. More info will be available as the day goes on. Go Sabres!

[bob_sauve28]

Go Sabres!

[bob_sauve28]

Maybe they need to let go and use the Force on the shoot outs.

[SwampD]

I like hockey. It's fun.

[WildCard]

Jack blamed himself for the loss in Florida, specifically for the game tying goal. Lehner also blamed himself, and tried telling Jack it's not all on Jack, but apparently Jack wasn't having any of it - WGR

 

So, 2g 3a for Jack tonight

[CallawaySabres]

It would nice if they didn't wait a period before realizing they get paid millions to play hockey......so tired of watching them crawl back just to get to OT every night

[Brawndo]

Ward in net for Canes

[darksabre]

I wonder if we'll play the first period tonight? 

[Mustache of God]

This will be the only home game I attend this year. All I really want for Christmas is a Sabres win and please god no shootout loss. I also want to see Jack play mad and have a doozy of a game. I'm also taking my wife, who has never been to a game in Buffalo.

 

I have a parking pass for the garage that says it's worth $20. If anyone wants it PM me and it looks like I can email it through the Sabres ticket app service thingy.

 

GO SABRES!

[bob_sauve28]

Ward in net for Canes

Same as it ever was...same as it ever was 

[Beer]

Jack blamed himself for the loss in Florida, specifically for the game tying goal. Lehner also blamed himself, and tried telling Jack it's not all on Jack, but apparently Jack wasn't having any of it - WGR

So, 2g 3a for Jack tonight

Wild, I hope your prediction is right. I love watching when Jack is on fire.

 

Go Sabres!

Edited December 22, 2016 by Beer

[LTS]

Just want to see Risto climb his way to the top of scoring for defense on the worst scoring team in the league... that alone should earn him all the recognition he deserves.

 

Oh.. and win... and other things.

[WildCard]

Wild, I hope your prediction is right. I love watching when Jack is on fire.

 

Go Sabres!

He's a ginger, he's always on fire ;)

[That Aud Smell]

With regard to Eichel, I felt like you could see him in the Florida third period trying to exert his will over the game. There were a couple of shifts there where he looked like he might take over. It didn't quite happen, but the *will* that seemed to be driving him was something to behold; he was definitely moving his feet.

[Samson's Flow]

He's a ginger, he's always on fire ;)

[woods-racer]

Jack blamed himself for the loss in Florida, specifically for the game tying goal. Lehner also blamed himself, and tried telling Jack it's not all on Jack, but apparently Jack wasn't having any of it - WGR

 

So, 2g 3a for Jack tonight

It was Jack's man that was left wide open in the slot for the tying goal. I'm sure he got a healthy dose of coaching on that.

 

Its a learning season, and as some have said, I'm sure he will play to redeem himself tonight.

 

Carolina, hide your babies , Jack's coming to town hungry!

[bob_sauve28]

Just want to see Risto climb his way to the top of scoring for defense on the worst scoring team in the league... that alone should earn him all the recognition he deserves.

 

Oh.. and win... and other things.

I just read on twitter that Risto's shot broke Nilsson's helmet 

[TheAud]

Lehner tonight, Nilsson tomorrow? Or vice versa?

Would sort of like to see Nilsson tonight. 

[TheAud]

I was looking at some fancy stats on Puckalytics.com. I don’t claim to be an expert in this area but it does interest me. Here’s some that jumped out at me today:

Top 7 defensemen in terms of 5-on-5 ice-time

 

Sorted by Goals For %, with on ice PDO listed as well.

(GF% being what % of goals scored 5-on-5 were they on the ice for that Buffalo scored, and PDO being a measure of shooting % for and against with 100 being the long term average – so it’s a measure of ‘puck luck’ with numbers higher than 100 being lucky and below 100 being unlucky, implies a regression to the mean is coming at some point).

I am not looking at any ‘quality of competition’ info here which obviously is important.

 

                             GF%       PDO

Franson               58.6        102.1

McCabe               53.9        101.7

Falk                      50.0        99.0

Risto                     48.6        100.4

Gorges                 43.5        99.3

Bogo                    30.0        95.5

Kuli                       28.6        96.5

 

Some references: Buffalo’s team average for GF% 5-on-5 is 48.3%.  This is 19^th in the league with Montreal in 1^st at 62.0% and Colorado last at 37%.

In 2015-16 Buffalo finished at 44.8%, and in 2014-2015 at 38.5%.

 

Interpretations:

-Franson and McCabe have been playing well but benefiting from PDO’s that will probably bring them down a bit in the future, especially Franson. McCabe is doing it with many more minutes and tougher competition (I expect).

-Falk doesn’t appear to be hurting the team, which is what my eyeballs are saying too.

-Risto is slightly above the team average which is actually a strong number since he plays such a huge number of minutes against the top competition.

-Gorges is a bit sub-par, but we already knew that. Great on the 3^rd pairing, not so much on 2^nd pairing.

-Bogosian and Kulikov – one the one hand, my God it’s bad. They appear to be getting absolutely caved in without generating any offense to speak of. I think that’s somewhat true. On the other hand, their sample sizes aren’t as large as others (due to missing so many games to injury) and their PDO’s are really low and should be expected to regress higher over time, raising the GF% numbers. But still, not pretty.

 

(If these sort of posts are inappropriate for GDT’s someone please just let me know and I’ll look for other places to do so if I get the inclination)

[bob_sauve28]

What is PDO? 

[DarthEbriate]

Same as it ever was...same as it ever was 

Same as it ever wa.....  <head whip>    And with that, from the greatest concert film ever...   No, not The Last Waltz.

 

[Mig22]

What is PDO? 

"puck luck"  

 

PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage (the number of goals they score divided by the number of shots on goal they generate) and their 5v5 save percentage (the number of shots their goalies stop divided by the number of shots on goal they allow).Aug 2, 2012

Non-Traditional Metrics Glossary: PDO - Fear The Fin

www.fearthefin.com/2012/8/2/3215351/non-traditional-metrics-glossary-pdo

Edited December 22, 2016 by Mig22

[That Aud Smell]

What is PDO? 

 

It's the value of adding together the team's SH% and SV%.

 

So, a team with a really high PDO (I have no idea - say, SH at .11, and SV at .945 = PDO of 105.5) is a team that, statistically, is bound to regress, come back to earth. 

 

That doesn't always happen in the course of a single season. A few years ago, Colorado rode an insane PDO to the playoffs. Then they were so-so again.

Edit: 5v5 is a good clarification. I had not been aware of that.

Edited December 22, 2016 by That Aud Smell

[Brawndo]

From AM Skate, Eichel was watching the peeper practice from in front of the bench. Moulson was in Eichel's Spot and Foligno took Moulson's Spot.

 

Bylsma said he wanted him to watch the PP in practice.

 

If this happens in the game...

 

IN THE NAME OF ALL THAT IS HOLY WHAT THE ACTUAL ARE YOU DOING DISCO DAN?

[LTS]

I just read on twitter that Risto's shot broke Nilsson's helmet 

 

Ever since he switched sticks (assuming he stayed with the Bauer over the Warrior) his game has been on fire. :)