Are today's shootouts a bad omen for the future?

[pi2000]

I still don't understand why no one ever went after Hasek for that stuff. It was DANGEROUS. I would have gone nuts if he submarined me like that. 

 

Absolutely. 

 

If that happened in the 80s or 90s there would've been mayhem.

[That Aud Smell]

Absolutely. 

 

If that happened in the 80s or 90s there would've been mayhem.

 

but he got away with it many times, did he not? like, no penalty called, etc.

[PromoTheRobot]

Shootouts happen to end every single game? That's weird, I've been turning my games off early for years then.

 

Those goalies looked like they played out of their minds because we regularly allowed 50 shots on goal (and goalie save percentage is higher for everyone from Price and Lundqvist to Lehtonen and Niemi when facing more shots in a game) but still posted lower save percentages and higher GAA (this is more the team than them) than the group of Lehner/Chad/Nilsson. 

 

If Lehner's shootout losses this season drag him down below those guys despite his better stats in every other game area, why don't Neuvirth/Enroth's 500 regulation losses do the same for them?

 

Not every game, but you know how people feel when we do have one? Let's say the dread is justified.

 

Not disagreeing with this at all, but the ability of many to overlook Lehner's play in regulation is amazing.

Nine out of 10 games he plays well and very little is said about his performance.

The tenth game, the shakey one, gets more comment than the other nine combined.

 

Without the way Lehner played in the first there is no way we get even a sniff of OT in Florida.

 

I think it's been pretty well established that the "Nolan system" was good for giving goalies good save percentages and opportunities to make the spectacular save. Where, exactly are Jhonas Enroth and Anders Lindback now?

 

He's made some nice saves but I don't think he's consistent. In fact I think he often overplays the puck, over-pursuing the play and putting himself out of position for a rebound. 

 

But whether he's good or not, can you build a team around a goalie that is an automatic shootout win for the other team? He's been that bad. (And so was Nillsen his last shootout.)

[Radar]

Shootouts are a bad omen in hockey. You can be a success as a shooter in a shootout and not be a very good overall hockey player. Remember Kotalik? You can be a better goalie in a game situation than in a shootout it would seem. Let's win , lose or tie with whole teams playing something resembling hockey. I don't like shootouts, don't like the three point play in basketball and I don't like the designated hitter in baseball. Those changes in our sports created more jobs for players but for me take away from the games themselves.JMO.

[pi2000]

but he got away with it many times, did he not? like, no penalty called, etc.

 

In the video above, there was a penalty called.

 

I don't recall if he was penalized for this move as a member of the Sabres.    I think it's up to the refrees discrection to decide if he's making a play on the puck, or simply trying to take out the legs.    I recall many plays where he would race out to a lose a puck and barely get there in time to poke the puck away, sometimes taking down the opposing player in the process.

Shootouts are a bad omen in hockey. You can be a success as a shooter in a shootout and not be a very good overall hockey player. Remember Kotalik? You can be a better goalie in a game situation than in a shootout it would seem. Let's win , lose or tie with whole teams playing something resembling hockey. I don't like shootouts, don't like the three point play in basketball and I don't like the designated hitter in baseball. Those changes in our sports created more jobs for players but for me take away from the games themselves.JMO.

 

TJ Oshie is a career 55%, and 6 for 8 over the past season and a half.    Outrageous.   

 

McDavid 1 for 5.

 

Eichel 1 for 7.

 

IMO it's just a matter of time before shootouts are replaced by more 3-on-3 hockey.     Go 10-min of 3-on-3, then just end it in a tie and be done with it.  

Edited December 21, 2016 by pi2000

[Stoner]

Problem: They practice shootouts on Lehner and they then think they're good at it.

Nice!

 

That number seems about right. And, of course, when you think about being awarded a penalty shot, you'd want that 50% chance in favour a peeper that hits at ~20+% if it's going well.

 

 

I laughed.

If coaches were given the choice of a penalty shot or a power play, it would be a pretty tough call. Lots of variables. But penalty shots were only converted about 28% of the time last season (a bit lower than in previous seasons).

 

http://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/2635/which-is-more-likely-to-result-in-a-goal-a-penalty-shot-or-a-power-play

 

The LindyWhack belongs in the board's glossary.

I will resist making a joke at a certain poster's expense.

 

Shootouts are a bad omen in hockey. You can be a success as a shooter in a shootout and not be a very good overall hockey player. Remember Kotalik? You can be a better goalie in a game situation than in a shootout it would seem. Let's win , lose or tie with whole teams playing something resembling hockey. I don't like shootouts, don't like the three point play in basketball and I don't like the designated hitter in baseball. Those changes in our sports created more jobs for players but for me take away from the games themselves.JMO.

Interesting, the bold. Can the opposite be true? Is there some earthly reason Eichel isn't deadly one on one? Does anyone keep breakaway stats? I wonder what the different psychologically is between a breakaway and a penalty shot/shootout? Just the amount of time you have to think about what you're going to do?

[North Buffalo]

Guys are just not practicing it enough. Make them both do it till theyre sicknof it "Herb Brooks style"

[Thorner]

Peters and ReeVaay were talking about this yesterday prior to the game. Rivet says the best shooters have 2 moves and they perfect them. Vanek, Kotalik, Datsyuk, etc. He said it looks the the Sabres current shooters dont know what they are going to do and ad lib to no avail. I thibk he's got a point. For ###### sake someone skate in with some speed.

  

 

Except for ROR. He sure knows what he is going to do before he shoots. And so does the opposing goalie. And everyone in the arena.

 

I don't think the coach is the issue.

COR won a game in the shootout. I think these guys are just lost in their own heads right now. I think they know from the moment OT ends that they won't score and won't get a save. I think it's a mental funk they'll get out of.

I wish we wouldn't play to grind out close games when we haven't been able to finish them, though. 8 losses in OT or the shootout 31 games in is absolutely absurd.

I think this is pretty much it. Whether or not the mental funk these guys seem to have is indicative of a larger, concerning issue, re: the OP, is hard to say. I don't buy that these guys don't have the talent to get it done in the shootout, so the mental side of things is something that definitely needs to be addressed on an individual basis. If it's a lack of confidence when "all eyes are on you", I wouldn't be quick to dismiss it as just a mental lapse that can easily be worked through, personally.

[Doohicksie]

Is this about the time when someone mentions "small sample size"?

 

Have the Sabres just been unlucky?

 

No.  They've been terrible.  On both sides.

That combo makes me want to vomit.

 

I know, right?

[Doohicksie]

The performance of our goalies in shootouts is alarming and something that should reflect badly on Tim Murray. Our goaltending during the tank years was far better.

 

Last three years, all Sabres goalies:

2014-15:  GAA 3.14, SV% .911

2015-16:  GAA 2.49, SV% .919

2016-17:  GAA 2.39, SV% .925

 

No, it wasn't.

[Stoner]

Last three years, all Sabres goalies:

2014-15:  GAA 3.14, SV% .911

2015-16:  GAA 2.49, SV% .919

2016-17:  GAA 2.39, SV% .925

 

No, it wasn't.

Maybe he meant in shootouts?

[Cereal]

If coaches were given the choice of a penalty shot or a power play, it would be a pretty tough call. Lots of variables. But penalty shots were only converted about 28% of the time last season (a bit lower than in previous seasons).

 

http://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/2635/which-is-more-likely-to-result-in-a-goal-a-penalty-shot-or-a-power-play

Cool stats, I'd often wondered about the comparison, but apparently not enough to actually go do some homework on it.

 

As you said, there are a lot of variables.  I'd like to think you'd choose a PP over penalty shot for a number of reasons: goalie matchup, to slow down pace of the game...  Let's say you're up by one goal with 4:00 left in the third period; a 2:00 man advantage will give you a better chance to win the game, I'd think.

[Stoner]

Cool stats, I'd often wondered about the comparison, but apparently not enough to actually go do some homework on it.

 

As you said, there are a lot of variables.  I'd like to think you'd choose a PP over penalty shot for a number of reasons: goalie matchup, to slow down pace of the game...  Let's say you're up by one goal with 4:00 left in the third period; a 2:00 man advantage will give you a better chance to win the game, I'd think.

Interesting! I wonder if coaches would be in favor of such a choice? It would definitely put their necks on the line.

 

Another twist is that most of the time the player fouled is awarded the penalty shot, but sometimes the coach (technically, the captain) gets to pick who takes the shot from among the players on the ice at the time of the infraction (player falls on the puck in the crease, for example).

 

So Deslauriers vs. a power play vs. ... Eichel, Moulson or Okposo vs. a power play. Big difference!

Edited December 22, 2016 by PASabreFan

[Samson's Flow]

 

Interesting, the bold. Can the opposite be true? Is there some earthly reason Eichel isn't deadly one on one? Does anyone keep breakaway stats? I wonder what the different psychologically is between a breakaway and a penalty shot/shootout? Just the amount of time you have to think about what you're going to do?

 

In my viewing experience Eichel seems to have converted on nearly every breakaway in a game situation (the Kane lob game winner comes to mind), but in the shootout he looks tentative. I think the key difference here is that in game situations he utilizes his spped to put pressure on the goalie to make a decision. In the shootout, he comes in so slow that he needs a perfect deke to beat him which is not his best skill set.

[pi2000]

In my viewing experience Eichel seems to have converted on nearly every breakaway in a game situation (the Kane lob game winner comes to mind), but in the shootout he looks tentative. I think the key difference here is that in game situations he utilizes his spped to put pressure on the goalie to make a decision. In the shootout, he comes in so slow that he needs a perfect deke to beat him which is not his best skill set.

There's two ways to approach a shootout.

 

1 - wait out the tendy and find an opening.

 

2 - make a predetermined move regardless of how the goalie sets up.

 

Typically, when coming in over the blueline you'll want to take a peak at goalie to determine how far out of the net he is. If he's out far and you get a sense he's being aggressive, you're best off going with a deke. If he's back far in the net, shot is better.

 

Guys that are successful typical take the same entry and come in wide (Perry) or ver slow and winding (P Kane, Osie). In Perry's case he gives himself two options depending on the goalie position. Kane and Oshie also give themselves two options.

 

IMO the problem with the Sabres shooters is they don't give themselves any options. They come in fairly straight at half speed which makes it easy for the goalie. They need to be more patient, come in more slowly, and get the goalie moving before takingba shot or making a final deke.

[Stoner]

I still wanna see breakaway stats. If those numbers are higher, doesn't it suggest skating straight in with speed is better? No one wanders in on goal during a game.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

As scary as this may be I think pi has it right in that it's all mental now.  He may have been referring to our goalers, but I think it applies to our shooters too.

 

An in game breakaway is, usually, not a game on the line situation.  So, I think our shooter, or our goalie if the breakaway is coming at us, are more relaxed.

 

The obvious out of this train of thought breakaway was Eich against the Canes last second goal.

[PromoTheRobot]

Last three years, all Sabres goalies:

2014-15:  GAA 3.14, SV% .911

2015-16:  GAA 2.49, SV% .919

2016-17:  GAA 2.39, SV% .925

 

No, it wasn't.

 

 

Maybe he meant in shootouts?

 

2014: Sabres were 6th in SO wins, 8-5. (.615)

2015: Sabres drop to 25th with a record of 2-7. (.222)

2016: Sabres currently 21st at 1-5. (.167)

Edited December 22, 2016 by PromoTheRobot

[pi2000]

I still wanna see breakaway stats. If those numbers are higher, doesn't it suggest skating straight in with speed is better? No one wanders in on goal during a game.

 

On breakaways you have guys chasing you from you behind so you can't meander in and wait out the goalie.   

 

That said, a guy like Jacob Silfverberg (ranks 4th overall in shootout % the previous 5 season) typically comes in with a ton a speed and shoots from the hash marks.    In his case, he comes in so fast that the goalie needs to back up in his net, making himself vulnerable to a quick accurate shot from the high slot.  

 

IMO the worst setup is come in at a consistent average pace straight at the goalie.    Either come in slow and wandering, fast and straight, change speed, or take a wide angle to the net.    P Kane typically comes in with speed then slams on the brakes and dekes.    It's the change of pace that makes it difficult for goalies to judge how quickly to back up towards the net and exposes holes.    

[Cereal]

On breakaways you have guys chasing you from you behind so you can't meander in and wait out the goalie.   

 

That said, a guy like Jacob Silfverberg (ranks 4th overall in shootout % the previous 5 season) typically comes in with a ton a speed and shoots from the hash marks.    In his case, he comes in so fast that the goalie needs to back up in his net, making himself vulnerable to a quick accurate shot from the high slot.  

 

IMO the worst setup is come in at a consistent average pace straight at the goalie.    Either come in slow and wandering, fast and straight, change speed, or take a wide angle to the net.    P Kane typically comes in with speed then slams on the brakes and dekes.    It's the change of pace that makes it difficult for goalies to judge how quickly to back up towards the net and exposes holes.    

Nice.  I imagine that since a change in speed causes the goalie to react, the shooter then has a couple of of moves/options based on what the goalie's reaction is.

[That Aud Smell]

Except for ROR. He sure knows what he is going to do before he shoots. And so does the opposing goalie. And everyone in the arena.

 

Nice.

[dudacek]

Pi, some of the best posts you've made since you joined.

Good stuff.

[darksabre]

Pi, some of the best posts you've made since you joined.

Good stuff.

I gotta agree. What a world. :p

[zippyfeet]

they couldn't win in a shootout if they were given two goals before it started

Edited December 23, 2016 by zippyfeet

[Stoner]

they couldn't win in a shootout if they were given two goals before it started

they couldn't smooth a silk sheet if they had a hot date with a babe...