Are today's shootouts a bad omen for the future?

[Stoner]

A lot of people probably remember Chuck Dickerson, "The Coach," on WGR. He used to say about rookies, "If they don't bite as puppies, they won't bite as dogs."

 

Well, these Sabres have been absolutely toothless in the shootout for two seasons. Here's a hypothesis to think about and worry about: if the players we're going to rely on for future success can't perform in the clutch now, they won't be able to in the future, either.

 

It's a somewhat questionable theory in that the NHL shootout is a gimmick and it's hard to say how players view it. I think the players buy in, though. The fans certainly do. The pressure is on. The game is on the line. For the Sabres, points desperately needed are there for the taking. It's not much of an exaggeration to say their season is on the line in these shootouts. Bylsma puts the standings on the bulletin board; the players know what these points mean.

 

Will Lehner suddenly become clutch in the playoff overtimes to come? Will the scorers?

 

As dogs, will they bite?

[darksabre]

The biggest problem I see with the shootout is that it doesn't look like players are being coached on how to approach it. Our guys constantly come in slow and try something simple, where you watch other teams and their players are being given carte blanche to get crazy with their moves, and they come in fast. I think either Dan is coaching risk-taking out of the shootout, or our players are worried if they get too fancy they won't get tapped for it next time. I don't know. But no one on this team is aggressive in the shootout.

[Winston]

One thing that baffles me is that we don't seem to utilize scouting reports. I don't have any data or any clips to support this claim. It's just a gut feeling. I watch a lot of non-Sabres hockey. It seems other teams chat with the coach and have a game plan of where the goalie is weak, where to attack him.

 

For us, it seems like Dan goes, "Uhhh, O'Reilly, I choose you." Then ROR tries that same move that Bylsma obviously hasn't coached out of him. It doesn't seem like we have a targeted approach out there. Meanwhile, Lehner has a couple tendencies that other teams must pick up on. Gaping 5 hole and bites on dekes to his glove side. I think other skaters are coached to know that, and Lehner is a sitting duck.

 

Our shooters have the skill to be so much better. Obviously Lehner has the skill to be better than he's been too. It seems like both are just guessing though. Maybe this is the wannabe baseball coach in me. But damn, Bylsma, utilize a scouting report for opposing shooters and especially opposing goalies!!!

[inkman]

Peters and ReeVaay were talking about this yesterday prior to the game. Rivet says the best shooters have 2 moves and they perfect them. Vanek, Kotalik, Datsyuk, etc. He said it looks the the Sabres current shooters dont know what they are going to do and ad lib to no avail. I thibk he's got a point. For sake someone skate in with some speed.

[Stoner]

Are you guys overthinking this? If there's ever a time for raw scoring talent to come out, a breakaway is it. Either you have it and score often, or you don't.

[darksabre]

Peters and ReeVaay were talking about this yesterday prior to the game. Rivet says the best shooters have 2 moves and they perfect them. Vanek, Kotalik, Datsyuk, etc. He said it looks the the Sabres current shooters dont know what they are going to do and ad lib to no avail. I thibk he's got a point. For ###### sake someone skate in with some speed.

I think I agree with this.

[Stoner]

It is perplexing. As gifted a player as Eichel is, that effort the other game was just atrocious. It's literally what I might have done. Who or what is in these guys' heads?

[darksabre]

Are you guys overthinking this? If there's ever a time for raw scoring talent to come out, a breakaway is it. Either you have it and score often, or you don't.

Breakaways aren't as easy as you think, regardless of talent, against an equally talented goalie who is focused solely on you. Even the best players are only hitting maybe 50%. 

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_skaters-shootout.html

 

 

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

our goalies are NOT aggressive. there are no poke checks there is not baiting, they just stand there like a target and wait to get undressed. 

[Stoner]

Breakaways aren't as easy as you think, regardless of talent, against an equally talented goalie who is focused solely on you. Even the best players are only hitting maybe 50%. 

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_skaters-shootout.html

 

 

I don't think they're easy. Barkov is converting on 83% (six chances). It's talent plus the intangible of performing under pressure. Do we have a player who can score Barkov's goal from last night?

[darksabre]

our goalies are NOT aggressive. there are no poke checks there is not baiting, they just stand there like a target and wait to get undressed. 

Lehner is a victim of his own style. He's essentially a pure butterfly goalie who relies on positioning rather than reflexes to make saves. If he's going to play shootouts that way, then he definitely has to come out and challenge. And if he reads the shooter wrong it's going in the net. He's not going to recover from a bad read. 

I don't think they're easy. Barkov is converting on 83% (six chances). It's talent plus the intangible of performing under pressure. Do we have a player who can score Barkov's goal from last night?

Maybe. Are they being allowed to try that move? Or is DDB sucking their souls dry?

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

Breakaways aren't as easy as you think, regardless of talent, against an equally talented goalie who is focused solely on you. Even the best players are only hitting maybe 50%. 

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_skaters-shootout.html

 

 

and yet, for our five SO losses: the panthers first two shooters scored, the canes first two shooters scored, the first two red wings shooters scored, the first two sens shooters scored, and the second two flyers scored.

[Stoner]

Maybe. Are they being allowed to try that move? Or is DDB sucking their souls dry?

I don't get why Bylsma would be coaching moves.

[darksabre]

and yet, for our five SO losses: the panthers first two shooters scored, the canes first two shooters scored, the first two red wings shooters scored, the first two sens shooters scored, and the second two flyers scored.

Well, we've already addressed that we're sitting on two bad shootout goalies.  :lol:

I don't get why Bylsma would be coaching moves.

It's about tone. There's a stigma in the NHL that players shouldn't be getting cute with college sh*t in games. I could see Bylsma being one of those guys who tells the boys to stop playing around during shootout drills. 

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

Well, we've already addressed that we're sitting on two bad shootout goalies.  :lol:

It's about tone. There's a stigma in the NHL that players shouldn't be getting cute with college sh*t in games. I could see Bylsma being one of those guys who tells the boys to stop playing around during shootout drills. 

 

i feel like too many guys watched oshie and thought that yeah the slow, deliberate approach is the secret. no it's not. you're not TJ. slap the puck from five feet away like Vanek. you'll have better luck. 

[darksabre]

i feel like too many guys watched oshie and thought that yeah the slow, deliberate approach is the secret. no it's not. you're not TJ. slap the puck from five feet away like Vanek. you'll have better luck. 

That's certainly what I'd tell Kane to do. 

[RonHextallsShoulderPads]

That's certainly what I'd tell Kane to do. 

yeah, agreed. 

[Doohicksie]

It's about tone. There's a stigma in the NHL that players shouldn't be getting cute with college sh*t in games. I could see Bylsma being one of those guys who tells the boys to stop playing around during shootout drills. 

 

There's an assumption in that statement that DD actually conducts shootout drills.  I don't believe he does, based on results to date.

[darksabre]

There's an assumption in that statement that DD actually conducts shootout drills. I don't believe he does, based on results to date.

?

[spndnchz]

Problem: They practice shootouts on Lehner and they then think they're good at it.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't think the coach is the issue.

 

COR won a game in the shootout. I think these guys are just lost in their own heads right now. I think they know from the moment OT ends that they won't score and won't get a save. I think it's a mental funk they'll get out of.

 

I wish we wouldn't play to grind out close games when we haven't been able to finish them, though. 8 losses in OT or the shootout 31 games in is absolutely absurd.

[Samson's Flow]

Problem: They practice shootouts on Lehner and they then think they're good at it.

Haha  :w00t:

 

I think that's it!

[Claude_Verret]

Bring back Kotalik.

[MattPie]

There's an assumption in that statement that DD actually conducts shootout drills.  I don't believe he does, based on results to date.

 

This wouldn't surprise me; the team has enough to worry about outside of the "maybe we'll see this every 5 games" drill.

[mjd1001]

Since he has been with the Sabres, Lehner has been in 5 shootouts in just over a year and a third.

 

He is 0-5.

He has faced 12 skaters and allowed 10 goals.

 

You would hope your goalie could win half of them.  With Lehner not winning any of them, he is costing you 3, maybe 4 points over the course of a year. Does his overall play make up for that?

 

BTW, the league average save % in shootouts over the last 2 years is close to 70%.  Lehner is at 17% 

Over the last couple of years,  Anders Lindback is at  78%.

 

Of course if the Sabres make the playoffs, you don't have to worry about this. You just hope Lehner doesn't cost them enough points to have them fail to make the playoffs.

 

Maybe it is some kind of mental block for Lenher since coming to the Sabres. Before his Sabre career, he wasn't that bad. He stopped 34 of 54 for a .630 save percentage.

 

For comparisons sake, over the last 5 years (4 1/3 seasons) the best in the League in shootouts include:  Martin Jones .861, Jhonas Enroth .844, Scott Darling .833, Andrei Vasilesky .833.  Ryan Miller isn't too far away at .755.

Edited December 21, 2016 by mjd1001