GDT GDT: NY Islanders at Buffalo 7:00 pm ET, 12/16/2016

[JJFIVEOH]

No need to fret over Kuli. He brings a lot more than he's been showing. I think he's still hurt some, Gorges has been bringing him down (three times tonight I saw Kuli have to turn around and go back for a pass from Gorges that was way behind him) and he is notorious for slow starts. He finishes strong. 

 

He'll come around. 

 

Kuli will be fine. 

[CallawaySabres]

Other than 1st period, not a bad game to attend. Ot game winning crowd reaction made everything worthwhile.

[Huckleberry]

You should read the main boards over at hf. Now that he is posting good possession numbers away from Gorges, they're talking all about his primary even strength assists and how the amount of them indicates he's not a "true offensive d-man" and how he's going to be a "good second pairing PP specialist". 

 

These comments are happening tonight, from people who haven't watched the Sabres this year and do things like pull his +/- and corsi as a 19 year old on a tank team.

 

Let me say this, I applied to HF before this forum, oh boy am I glad they turned me down because of user issues coming from my provider.

 

This forum has learned me a lot about the history of this team in a way I wouldn't want no other board to be part of.

I was drunk tonight, two nights in a row, yesterday was birthday, turned 34, I was jumping because I checked the score at 04.20 am and saw we frakking won.

everyone was looking at me weird, but didn't care, we won :D

 

I love you guys

I love this team

I love RJ

I love staying up until 04.00 am to watch this team.

 

And I might be drunk as hell, but when you can win games like this I start to believe....

 

 

This was one of my first live games :D

that OT goal and celebration by risto is a thing of beauty :D

 

[Ogre]

I love drunk Huckleberry.

[JJFIVEOH]

[Taro T]

Not sticking up for Boychuck but when Eich hit the boards Boychuck looked genuinely concerned. It was a weird play. Turning this into a nobody stuck up for Miller type of thing is emotion talking. There's a reason he only got 2 minutes. Its all he deserved. Imo .

 

 

He should, he no longer has Jacobs to plead his case before the league office. Though he didn't "mean" to #### Eichel up, his being himself could very definitely done that. D#####bag needs to learn not to be a jackhole at all times.

 

I kinda don't mind keeping Fedun or Falk or both and rotating them into the lineup to keep our other D fresh, even after Bogo's back. For some reason I think if we make the playoffs both of those guys will be needed.

 

I wasn't talking about him, I was talking about the team in general. I thought that's what the "hot pile" referred to way back when. I didn't realize it was a specific reference to Ladd. We've been talking past each other since due to my misinterpretation.

 

Fair enough. :beer:

 

No need to fret over Kuli. He brings a lot more than he's been showing. I think he's still hurt some, Gorges has been bringing him down (three times tonight I saw Kuli have to turn around and go back for a pass from Gorges that was way behind him) and he is notorious for slow starts. He finishes strong.

 

He'll come around.

 

Kuli will be fine.

 

Kulikov will & as soon as Gorges gets 3rd line duty, so will Josh. Unfortunately, right now due to health, he's #4. Edited December 17, 2016 by Taro T

[JohnRobertEichel]

 

It's always enjoyable skimming through the game day thread and seeing the emotional rollercoaster we fans go through.

[woods-racer]

I, for one, am getting exactly what I was anticipating at the start of the season. A young skilled hockey team, with a few exceptions, learning to play together. They are frustrating at times, and probably a bit more because of coaching.

 

Looking back, we are where we should be in the standings. We won a few we shouldn't have, and lost a few we should have won, but a bubble playoff team playing .500 hockey in the hardest stretch of the season sounds about right.

 

Most importantly.....

 

They are fun to watch!

 

AND

 

There is a really good chance they are going to win the next game and I can't wait to watch it!

 

Haven't said that in a few years.

[Huckleberry]

Our first goal, you can see Risto look at larsson for that redirect.  

The Moulson goal is a typical goal for him, he has some puck luck this year :D

[sodbuster]

I stranded Matty Mo on my fantasy bench in favor of Samson. This is the third time this season I've had to play one over the other, and each time, I've played samson, hoping that he would break out of his funk. Regret.

[Ross Rhea]

on a very low beginning level, this team is starting to remind me of when 05/06 team started pulling it together. 

[bob_sauve28]

This was a difficult game to watch at times.  One bright spot for me is Justin Falk.  It's going to be hard to send him back down.  I really like his game and he has a very smart shot from the point.

I like him too, makes smart plays and is tough

Not sticking up for Boychuck but when Eich hit the boards Boychuck looked genuinely concerned. It was a weird play. Turning this into a nobody stuck up for Miller type of thing is emotion talking. There's a reason he only got 2 minutes. Its all he deserved. Imo .

 

i didn't even think it was a penalty. Jack spun back on him and Boychuck just tried to seal off the boards. Ya, it looked bad, but in a contact sport those things will happen

[Winston]

Unfortunately I missed most of the game, but I was able to catch the GWG as I streamed on my phone.

 

How many shifts did Eichel miss? Would he have missed time if he wasn't pulled by the concussion spotter?

[jsb]

It's always enjoyable skimming through the game day thread and seeing the emotional rollercoaster we fans go through.

Especially Flagg!!! He has to be emotionally drained after every game. For a guy with as many reasoned posts prior and post game, his "I hate the Sabres" and "this player sucks" takes during every period of every game is hilarious. Than he does a complete 180 when we score. 

 

Takes on the game and team

Eichel and ROR are amazing with the puck. It's almost as if they have a rubber magnet on their sticks. Just nothing short of amazing puck handling skills.

Okposo is better than I gave him credit for when we first signed him. Not spectacular at anything in particular but always seems to be in the right place at the right time doing the right thing. He's what I hope Samson evolves into and he has a long way to go.

I know Gorges does a lot of things right but it's almost like a fluke when he makes a good pass. My God, if not a turnover machine, he just is an automatic loss of possession player. Drives me nuts. 

Fedun and Falk are 2 veteran players that don't make the major mistake to kill you. Can't wait for Bogosian to return, get Kuli back on the left side and slides Gorges down a slot.

 

Risto is becoming the Dman we all want and crave. 

I don't quite understand the Kane hate on this board. He is what he is, a Deslauriers that puts points on the board. 7 points in the last 8 games. He's not going to dazzle you with possession skills but he's going to cause enough chaos and havoc on the ice to be effective, he's also defensively responsible. 

The 2nd PP unit is starting to play better, the drop in talent from the first group, Jack, Samson, Risto, ROR and Okposo to Kane, Moulson, Franson, Gianta and McCabe is pretty steep but if I'm not mistaken they've gone from terrible to scoring 2 goals in the last 3 games. Pretty impressive for a group that doesn't have a QB to guide it.

 

We are 7-3-2 in our last 12 games!!!!

Edited December 17, 2016 by jsb

[Winston]

Unfortunately I missed most of the game, but I was able to catch the GWG as I streamed on my phone.

 

How many shifts did Eichel miss? Would he have missed time if he wasn't pulled by the concussion spotter?

Never mind, I just fired up NHL.tv and answered my own question. Didn't realize he stayed right out for the power play. Excellent!

[Stoner]

on a very low beginning level, this team is starting to remind me of when 05/06 team started pulling it together. 

Let's just settle down a minute there, fella.

 

I love you.

 

See? When it comes to the Sabres, I don't care about a poster's political views.

Edited December 17, 2016 by PASabreFan

[North Buffalo]

Let's just settle down a minute there, fella.

 

I love you.

 

See? When it comes to the Sabres, I don't care about a poster's political views.

And we love you for it!

There is a lotta love goin on around here! https://duckduckgo.com/?q=cars+movie+filmore&t=iphone&iax=1&ia=images&iai=http%3A%2F%2Fplamoya.com%2Fbmz_cache%2F2%2F2015b7147894e5761a4f495669b2a86d.image.500x384.jpg

Edited December 17, 2016 by Grumpy Larry

[bob_sauve28]

Especially Flagg!!! He has to be emotionally drained after every game. For a guy with as many reasoned posts prior and post game, his "I hate the Sabres" and "this player sucks" takes during every period of every game is hilarious. Than he does a complete 180 when we score. 

 

Takes on the game and team

Eichel and ROR are amazing with the puck. It's almost as if they have a rubber magnet on their sticks. Just nothing short of amazing puck handling skills.

Okposo is better than I gave him credit for when we first signed him. Not spectacular at anything in particular but always seems to be in the right place at the right time doing the right thing. He's what I hope Samson evolves into and he has a long way to go.

I know Gorges does a lot of things right but it's almost like a fluke when he makes a good pass. My God, if not a turnover machine, he just is an automatic loss of possession player. Drives me nuts. 

Fedun and Falk are 2 veteran players that don't make the major mistake to kill you. Can't wait for Bogosian to return, get Kuli back on the left side and slides Gorges down a slot.

 

Risto is becoming the Dman we all want and crave. 

I don't quite understand the Kane hate on this board. He is what he is, a Deslauriers that puts points on the board. 7 points in the last 8 games. He's not going to dazzle you with possession skills but he's going to cause enough chaos and havoc on the ice to be effective, he's also defensively responsible. 

The 2nd PP unit is starting to play better, the drop in talent from the first group, Jack, Samson, Risto, ROR and Okposo to Kane, Moulson, Franson, Gianta and McCabe is pretty steep but if I'm not mistaken they've gone from terrible to scoring 2 goals in the last 3 games. Pretty impressive for a group that doesn't have a QB to guide it.

 

We are 7-3-2 in our last 12 games!!!!

Nice post!

[GoPre]

Especially Flagg!!! He has to be emotionally drained after every game. For a guy with as many reasoned posts prior and post game, his "I hate the Sabres" and "this player sucks" takes during every period of every game is hilarious. Than he does a complete 180 when we score. 

 

Takes on the game and team

Eichel and ROR are amazing with the puck. It's almost as if they have a rubber magnet on their sticks. Just nothing short of amazing puck handling skills.

Okposo is better than I gave him credit for when we first signed him. Not spectacular at anything in particular but always seems to be in the right place at the right time doing the right thing. He's what I hope Samson evolves into and he has a long way to go.

I know Gorges does a lot of things right but it's almost like a fluke when he makes a good pass. My God, if not a turnover machine, he just is an automatic loss of possession player. Drives me nuts. 

Fedun and Falk are 2 veteran players that don't make the major mistake to kill you. Can't wait for Bogosian to return, get Kuli back on the left side and slides Gorges down a slot.

 

Risto is becoming the Dman we all want and crave. 

I don't quite understand the Kane hate on this board. He is what he is, a Deslauriers that puts points on the board. 7 points in the last 8 games. He's not going to dazzle you with possession skills but he's going to cause enough chaos and havoc on the ice to be effective, he's also defensively responsible. 

The 2nd PP unit is starting to play better, the drop in talent from the first group, Jack, Samson, Risto, ROR and Okposo to Kane, Moulson, Franson, Gianta and McCabe is pretty steep but if I'm not mistaken they've gone from terrible to scoring 2 goals in the last 3 games. Pretty impressive for a group that doesn't have a QB to guide it.

 

We are 7-3-2 in our last 12 games!!!!

 

Great post 

 

 

*And bob_sauve beat me to it!  Gave his thumbs up while I was reading your post.  Still, a fantastic post. Keep it up. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by GoPre

[Stoner]

And we love you for it!

There is a lotta love goin on around here! https://duckduckgo.com/?q=cars+movie+filmore&t=iphone&iax=1&ia=images&iai=http%3A%2F%2Fplamoya.com%2Fbmz_cache%2F2%2F2015b7147894e5761a4f495669b2a86d.image.500x384.jpg

Heck, I would high-five Steve Bannon if he were a Sabres fan. I mean, it would be tough, the way he raises his arm with the palm down, but I would make it work.

[TrueBlueGED]

Team won one for Robin last game. Robin won this one for the team.

He was definitely zoned in tonight. There were many who weren't.

 

I am still a defender of old warhorses, but Josh Gorges should not be playing.

His skating was bad enough without a broken foot.

 

Kulikov is not the smartest brick in the wheelbarrow.

 

Kyle Okposo is what Drew Stafford should have been.

 

Jack Eichel makes watching the Sabres fun again (at least in games like tonight where he moves his feet)

 

###### analytics. Risto is the kind of player who wins Stanley Cups. You'd have to blind not to see it.

 

1) I'm not even convinced Gorges belongs in our top-6 Dmen once everyone is healthy...including himself. The wheels may have officially come off. On that note...

 

2) A bit of a rant: The negative impact Gorges has had on Risto's stats is simply amazing (in case it's not obvious, I mean this in a bad way), and it completely blinded the analytics community. The statistical models that have been developed do a pretty good job of taking into account quality of competition faced, and there's persuasive evidence that its effects are overstated anyway due to small variance in player QoC faced. However, the statistical models, to the best of my understanding, don't do much to account for quality of defense partner--they factor in quality of teammates, but that's teammates writ large, so the fact Risto was getting #1D ice time and playing with all of our best forwards for huge chunks of minutes essentially served to "pump up" his QoT stat, making it look like he's terrible even while playing with our best players. 

 

WOWY analysis is one way to try to get around this problem, but since Risto was stapled to Gorges 90% of the time, there wasn't enough "without Gorges" sample to be worth much of anything (a fact that most in the analytics community simply ignored, or were ignorant to). I've also noticed there's a bit of a negativity bias with respect to how the community views outliers--even those outliers which are in a positive direction, most still tend to assume they're there because of luck and are actually much worse than their measurables. The model is right 90% of the time, and when players deviate significantly from the model, the problem is the players, not the model's inability to catch unique circumstances. That's the general thinking, anyway.

 

And that general thinking misses the boat sometimes. The thing with models that rely on trends and generalities to varying degrees is they do sometimes "miss" on unique circumstances, and generally don't handle significant exceptions to rules very well. In Risto's case, the models simply weren't equipped to deal with just how much of a drag playing with Gorges has been. But because the community has such strong priors about sticking to the models and turning a skeptical eye to the, ahem, eye test, when it contradicts the stats...it was a blind spot of sorts. No matter how many Sabres fans (many of whom are familiar with the stats) would try to say "Look, I know what the numbers are, but you have to listen to me about Gorges"...it was rejected. Well, now that Risto is an over 50% CF player with McCabe and Kulikov compared to barely a 40% CF player with Gorges, people are starting to take notice...but it's going to take awhile for the "new" reality to take hold. 

 

Now I'm sure some people are going to take this to say "See! I knew stats sucked! Eye test baby!" but that would be decidedly the wrong thing to take away. The takeaway should be we all have various biases we bring to the table (such as those who still somehow believe Deslauriers brings value because he hits and his teammates love him, as that's what they were taught was important growing up), and we should be a bit more open to taking things outside our world view into account.

[qwksndmonster]

What about Risto's +/- tho?

[Sabel79]

Hilariously enough, Hockey Reference tells me that Risto has the worst overall plus/minus (in terms of the number, no accounting for games played) in the history of the franchise at a -70.  Any guesses as to who number two on that list, at a similar number of games played, with a -65 is?

 

And yes, I did some late-night drunken rabbit-hole venturing last night. 

[darksabre]

What about Risto's +/- tho?

[pi2000]

What about Risto's +/- tho?

He still needs to get much better defensively. That turnover last night could have cost them dearly.