Sabres on pace for 3-4 more points by end of December than the 2014 team...Incomprehensible

[Claude_Verret]

Can't remember in which tank season it occurred, but I distinctly remember a December winning streak that had some here thinking that a team built to tank could actually go on a playoff run.  The season is a marathon. The 2016-2017 Sabres always were at best a playoff bubble team, so yes they have some work to do but there's still a lot of hockey left.  If they finish north of 81 points the rebuild is still on track in my view.

[Stoner]

Lulz.

No? Do you remember the genesis of tank talk? I think it was the Black-Harrington Cat Fight presser after the shortened 2012-2013 season. Remember when Darcy said, "It's not about making the playoffs"? Then corrected himself immediately. "It's not about just making the playoffs." He threw shade on franchises that make expedient moves to try and qualify for the playoffs, McGyvering their way in if they have to, hoping to catch fire. Buffalo was going to be above that fray, and the playoffs are STILL a pipe dream for us. Who behaved more honestly?

 

(Or maybe you are laughing at the notion of honesty in the professional sports, I don't know.)

Can't remember in which tank season it occurred, but I distinctly remember a December winning streak that had some here thinking that a team built to tank could actually go on a playoff run.  The season is a marathon. The 2016-2017 Sabres always were at best a playoff bubble team, so yes they have some work to do but there's still a lot of hockey left.  If they finish north of 81 points the rebuild is still on track in my view.

I weep.

Edited December 13, 2016 by PASabreFan

[That Aud Smell]

No? Do you remember the genesis of tank talk? I think it was the Black-Harrington Cat Fight presser after the shortened 2012-2013 season. Remember when Darcy said, "It's not about making the playoffs"? Then corrected himself immediately. "It's not about just making the playoffs." He threw shade on franchises that make expedient moves to try and qualify for the playoffs, McGyvering their way in if they have to, hoping to catch fire. Buffalo was going to be above that fray, and the playoffs are STILL a pipe dream for us. Who behaved more honestly?

 

(Or maybe you are laughing at the notion of honesty in the professional sports, I don't know.)

 

Just the notion of "honesty" as a value in how a team is built. It's a corollary to the chuckle I have about "winning cultures."

 

There are many roads to Rome. (Or is it more than one way to skin a cat?) Anyway: A team will consistently win when it is a good team. One way to get a good team is to have a core group of great players. One way to get those great players is to stink for a period of time, and draft early. When you have a good team, that team will win many games. Those wins will give off the appearance of a winning culture.

 

There are other ways to accomplish the same goal. But the idea that one way is more honourable, or honest, is just ... sill-- err, flawed, to me.

[MattPie]

We had this conversation last year, too - and were 17-22-something. While I'm not thrilled with the state of the team, this one isn't going 0-for-January like that one did, or lose 14 straight overall. (Was it 12?) We'll probably go on a little run at some point and finish in the low 80s point range again (which isn't good enough, but isn't a tank team by ~30 points)

Didnt that 2014 team have kind of a miracle run in December where the goalies were making 40 saves a night and Zemgus was popping in highlight reel game winners? It almost briefly got them into the playoff race.

 

I guess the next question is if the current 5-3-2 run the Sabres are on is their version of that, or have found their level.

 

That's correct. If you look at the historical chart here, you'll see the big bump that then dives for the gutter in January. So yes, this team is on pace with a team that went on a miracle run at this point in time.

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23748-charts-2015-16-edition/?hl=charts

[pi2000]

Only the Islanders and Sharks have had a more difficult strength of schedule to date this season.  

 

The next 9 games are certainly winnable.     IMO, they need to get at least 12 of 18 points or kiss the season good bye.  

 

LAK

NYI

@CAR

@FLA

CAR

@NYI

@DET

BOS

@BOS

[nfreeman]

No it doesn't and no it doesn't. There are loads of teams that have rebuild via the draft through tanking and gone on to success. How else should Buffalo have built? 

 

I understand, you hated the tank. Here is a question, what would this team look like with Zemgus and Grigs up the middle, no ROR, but I guess we have Compher and Zadorov so woo. We also don't have GMTM as DR is still GM in a non tanking world. Jack Eichel plays for Arizona. Sam Reinhart is in well not Buffalo. Johan Larsson also not a Sabre but we still have Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek leading our locker room. If you told me that today would look like this or if I wanted I could go back and not tank, I tank every time. 

 

Vanek - Grigorenko - Pominville

Luke Adam - Zemgus - Armia

Foligno - Ennis -  Stafford

Ellis - Schaller - Kaleta

spare: Gerbe, Compher

 

 

... man I wish that was the team we had kept so we didn't wander in the wilderness for generations.  #sarcasm 

 

This post isn't just a straw man.  It's a straw army.

[Jacque Richard]

Here's a more objective way of making Matter's point:

 

2014-2015, last year of tank: 26 points in 30 games

 

2015-2016, Bubble Team?: 27 points in 30 games

 

2016-2017, Make the Playoffs!: on pace for 30 points in 30 games

 

It just seems like both Buffalo franchises have to break this horrible habit of taking themselves out of the playoffs before the season even gets interesting.

Wow with a better coach than the 2014 version

[LGR4GM]

This post isn't just a straw man.  It's a straw army.

and claiming we would be better if we hadn't tanked is what? 

 

You want to gloat because you didn't like the tank and right now it isn't going well. Enjoy it while it lasts. 

[Randall Flagg]

Matter is making a statistical case based on actual results that this team right now isn't much better than that tank team. You're not refuting it, it really can't be refuted. You're just guessing that this team won't collapse the rest of the way and end up as bad as that tank team. Probably a good guess, but still just a guess.

It's correct that we are producing at a slightly higher rate than that team was at this date. We were last year, too. But there seems to me to be an implied feeling that this team will continue to be that way. That team almost got back to .500 at this point after a 10-3-3 stretch and only ended up so terrible because it went two months between winning games at a point after December 13th. If that team had continued at the pace we compare it to now, it wouldn't have been a tank team, it would have been like we were last year. So while I want to be better than where we are, it seems a little dishonest to compare it to this point at that particular season instead of this point last year or something, because everything about the roster suggests that we'll come along like we did last year and not 2014. I was seeing conjecture in the original point being made, whether it was there or not, because I don't see another reason to compare it to that team over other ones with similar slow starts (05-06 saw sub-.500 late into November too) Edited December 13, 2016 by Randall Flagg

[nfreeman]

and claiming we would be better if we hadn't tanked is what? 

 

You want to gloat because you didn't like the tank and right now it isn't going well. Enjoy it while it lasts. 

 

It's not a straw man, that's for sure.  (Now, if I had said "everyone who pushed for the tank said we'd win a cup this year, and we aren't going to, so the tank is a failure" -- that would've been a straw man, because it's an obviously ridiculous standard that no one actually said.)

 

And I'm not gloating.  I wish I had been wrong about the tank.  And there is still quite a bit of time for that to end up being the case.  But at some point (e.g. if the Sabres don't make the playoffs this year or next year), we need to stop kidding ourselves about the efficacy of the tank and recognize that it's chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

[LGR4GM]

Literally everything is chasing the cup of silver at the rainbow, all of it. That is literally the point. 

[Sabel79]

Can't remember in which tank season it occurred, but I distinctly remember a December winning streak that had some here thinking that a team built to tank could actually go on a playoff run.  The season is a marathon. The 2016-2017 Sabres always were at best a playoff bubble team, so yes they have some work to do but there's still a lot of hockey left.  If they finish north of 81 points the rebuild is still on track in my view.

This.

 

At the end of the season we'll likely see the Sabres about ten points or so out of the playoffs. Given where the franchise is and has been, an honest appraisal of the team being sent out on opening night would have penciled that in as being the most likely outcome. At least a few on this board seemed to agree before the season started. Let's not lose sight of the forest while staring at the trees here. There's still a lot of hockey to be played.

[Jacque Richard]

This.

At the end of the season we'll likely see the Sabres about ten points or so out of the playoffs. Given where the franchise is and has been, an honest appraisal of the team being sent out on opening night would have penciled that in as being the most likely outcome. At least a few on this board seemed to agree before the season started. Let's not lose sight of the forest while staring at the trees here. There's still a lot of hockey to be played.

True how about putting the puck in the net on a regular basis might help. Not real confident in this group

[thewookie1]

We are a Pegula-owned pro sports franchise. 

 

What do you expect?

 

He is the stupidest owner in all of sports.

 

 

He is a whole lot of stupid. This ain't fracking, my friend. He's like an owner tornado. He came off the lake, took out the Sabres and headed for the southtowns. The only hope here is that maybe he can defy meteorology and circle back and flatten the Bisons, leaving the Sabres and Bills to somehow rebuild themselves with the insurance money.

 

 

We'd likely have a cash strapped mediocre Sabres team that never tanked and still holds to Vanek and company praying for something good to happen. And the Bills would be in Toronto, so while you may think he's a bad owner, at least we have an owner who will keep the teams here and with deep pockets to boot.

 

 

 

It shouldn't be seen as incomprehensible, or even odd.  Tanking usually fails to produce a winning team, and instead leaves the team in the wilderness for a generation.  That is the most likely outcome here as well. 

 

:wallbash:  Then what works exactly? Few FAs want to come here and there's very few in general.  We averaged 9th before the tank, so effectively a non-playoff team that perpetually spun its wheels and couldn't improve because we middled it. We had two choices, stay the course and pray for a miracle or tank and at very least change the course in some regard. 

[That Aud Smell]

Literally everything is chasing the cup of silver at the rainbow, all of it. That is literally the point. 

 

Nicely put. Really nicely put. Wonderful, in fact.

 

I think this is the point that is consistently missed or glossed: Where would the Sabres be if the team had not orchestrated a tank? Who the hell knows. Maybe better? Maybe not? Maybe further along? Maybe a contender? Maybe more of an perennial bubble team? Maybe, maybe, maybe.

 

We are where we are. This isn't a laboratory, and there are no controls for a purported experiment in sports morality. Onward!

[SwampD]

The Sabres will end up with a better record than last year. All we are witnessing is the growing pains of  a young team learning how to not be historically bad. 

 

 

 

I can't believe I'm on Team Sunshine and Kittens.

[Mig22]

I'll take the Pegulas as owners all day long.  Not meddlers, they give management a chance, and are willing to spend money on staff, roster, and facilities.  Nothing not to like.  If you don't like the choice of coaches or GMs, fine, but you can't say that the choice of coaches was unreasonable.  A Stanley Cup winner and a guy who got the Jets to their only conference championship game since Namath I think. If it doesn't work out, they will get new coaches.  Good ownership is about commitment and resources and nothing much else.  They pass muster on both of those.

[Taro T]

It's not a straw man, that's for sure.  (Now, if I had said "everyone who pushed for the tank said we'd win a cup this year, and we aren't going to, so the tank is a failure" -- that would've been a straw man, because it's an obviously ridiculous standard that no one actually said.)

 

And I'm not gloating.  I wish I had been wrong about the tank.  And there is still quite a bit of time for that to end up being the case.  But at some point (e.g. if the Sabres don't make the playoffs this year or next year), we need to stop kidding ourselves about the efficacy of the tank and recognize that it's chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

The decision to tank was a horrible one. (This coming from someone that agreed that once the decision had been made and the selloff begun, it needed to be completed.) The timing was even worse (they chose to tank the year AFTER MacKinnon, Drouin, & Barkov came out and one year prior to McEichel :doh:), but all things considered they aren't in a horrible spot moving forward.

 

They picked up 7 points in Eichel's 1st 5 games back; if they can do that 3-4 more times and average out to a 12 points in 10 games pace (the 12 in 10 which over a full season puts a team in the playoffs) both of which seem reasonable IF they can finally remain relatively healthy would put them on the playoff bubble. Which is where many of us expected them to be this year.

 

Though finishing in the 80's could in the long run be the best thing for them; not for the slightly better player they'll get drafting 11th rather than 18th, but rather for the coaching upgrade that could be available if a relatively healthy team continues to play an NHL 0.500 with an unreasonbly dull team considering C's 1&2 are who they are. Was definitely on the "a coaching change needs to be made if the playoffs aren't reached" bandwagon this off-season; injuries or not, haven't hopped off.

[JJFIVEOH]

Only the Islanders and Sharks have had a more difficult strength of schedule to date this season.

 

The next 9 games are certainly winnable. IMO, they need to get at least 12 of 18 points or kiss the season good bye.

 

LAK

NYI

@CAR

@FLA

CAR

@NYI

@DET

BOS

@BOS

The problem is, the Sabres have beaten most of the tough teams.

[Randall Flagg]

The problem is, the Sabres have beaten most of the tough teams.

This feels right even if I don't feel like looking back at the schedule to see. Play so well against the Rangers, beat the Penguins, lose to Toronto and Vancouver.

[stenbaro]

Not only did the team lose its top player but it lost half of its top four defensemen also.  Its alot to overcome. Everything will be just fine when they get all healthy. 

[JJFIVEOH]

This feels right even if I don't feel like looking back at the schedule to see. Play so well against the Rangers, beat the Penguins, lose to Toronto and Vancouver.

 

They're 7-0-1 against Pit, NY, Otta and Edm........................ without putting anything together I'd guess that they have a worse record against non-playoff teams. 

 

Eight of their ten wins are against teams in a playoff spot. 

[K-9]

They're 7-0-1 against Pit, NY, Otta and Edm........................ without putting anything together I'd guess that they have a worse record against non-playoff teams. 

 

Eight of their ten wins are against teams in a playoff spot. 

I'm officially hanging my hat on this hook of hope. 

[That Aud Smell]

I'm officially hanging my hat on this hook of hope.

 

that's poetry right there.

[JJFIVEOH]