The core vs. accessories

[Doohicksie]

With the injuries this year, we've had a peek at what's down on the farm.  We've had many, many threads about which players constitute the core of the team going forward, how much to pay them, etc., but a team is much more than 5 or 6 key players.

 

While most fans would like to see some additions to the current core (maybe a winger and a D or two), I thought it would be interesting to examine what I call the accessories.  These are the players that aren't part of the core.  If we peel the onion down another layer, which members of the accessories are worth keeping around?  Which really need to be upgraded by someone else?

 

Take for instance Grant.  He's been on okay fourth line center.  As the Sabres tune the team, can anyone see him as a key part of a contender?  He's been effective at times but lately he's caught a lot of flack for mistakes he's made.

 

Then there's D-Lo.  Does he have a place on the Sabres of the future?  Is he just another winger whose spot will be filled soon by a prospect, maybe Carrier, maybe Baptiste?

 

There are also players that might not be quite part of the core, but they are definitely valuable accessories, players like Foligno, Larsson.  Valued members of the team perhaps, but not part of the inner sanctum of stars.

 

Maybe before we get too deep into this discussion, we need to agree which players are members of the core- Eich, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Risto, Okposo, McCabe?

 

I guess I bring it up because for much of the tank, we've been "top focused," looking at improvements coming from very high draft picks.  As the Sabres mature, those high picks will come to an end and improvement will begin to come from incremental "tuning" of the team, in terms of system (coach) and acquisitions.  Assuming no blockbuster moves are made, what incremental moves do you see coming down the pipe? 

 

Who's core?  Who's a complementary piece?  Who needs to be replaced?

 

Discuss.

[sabills]

My rapid attempt to tier our players based on how willing to trade them I am (currently rostered players only):

 

 

Tier One (AHHHHHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA): Jack Eichel

 

Tier Two (Don't bother calling): Ristolainen, O'Rielly

 

Tier Three (Sure, I'll listen, is McDavid available?): Ryanhart, Okposo

 

Tier Four (Maybe, but it'll cost you): McCabe, Kulikov, Kane, Larsson, 

 

Tier Five (Make me an offer): Carrier, Ennis, Foligno, Bogosian

 

Tier Six (I assume this is part of another deal):  Gionta, Moulson, Delauriers, Grant, Nilsson, Girgensons, Franson

 

Tier Seven (So is it a bag of like, NEW pucks or...): Gorges

 

 

I might have missed some. And I didn't do prospects (I tried, but I just don't know their value enough). I think anyone from Tier 4 up either are or could be part of the core (Kane's legal issues withstanding, of course). From there down, all those pieces can move and I won't lose any sleep over it.

 

I think, just from looking at that, that its clearly our defence that needs the biggest upgrading. I struggled putting Bogo up as high as I did, though he did a good job last season when he was active. 

Edited December 8, 2016 by sabills

[Doohicksie]

I'd say Tier 3 and up is the core (especially if you moved McCabe up a tier, but I can see him as borderline core).

 

Tiers 6 and 7 I agree are expendable pieces, but if they're going to be moved I want to see their replacement be a clear upgrade (we have to get better, right?)

 

And I'd probably move Foligno up to Tier 4.  He's shown me enough this year that I want to keep him about as much as I do Larsson.  (In fact I think those two are a pairing together for the foreseeable future.)

 

Another layer of the onion might be.... for the lower tiers, what level of player are they, relative to the role they currently fill, as compared to competitive playoff teams.  (For instance, Grant, to pick on him some more, is a marginal 4th line center and needs to be upgraded compared to competitive teams' fourth line centers.)

[3putt]

Eichel, ROR, Risto, and Nylander are the current untouchables. Reinhart, Okposo and M cCabe are expendable if you are willing to overpay, and by alot.  The rest are easily replaceable and should be considered placeholders in the event a better option comes along.  When you think of recent contenders, usually 4 sometimes 5 forwards get the bulk of playoff toi.  For defenders it is 3 maybe 4.  After that the cap dictates that you have a few vets taking a last swing at a cup, and up and coming youngsters on elcs .  I'm  not sure we have our 4 to 5 forwards and 3 d identified yet.  Everyone else is a chip in the stack to be used as necessary. 

[inkman]

Can we please stop referring to Derek Grant as an NHL player. Ugh!

Edited December 8, 2016 by inkman

[dudacek]

This is my model for a real contending team:

 

Tier one (three players): your key forwards and your franchise defenceman

You can build around guys like Jack and Ryan; that is a 1/2 centre punch that can win you a cup. Ryan is there already as the all-everything gutsy two-way guy, and Im pretty certain Jack can be the top-10 scoring centre Risto looks more like your lynchpin D with every day. We've got one for sure and the potential for all three.

 

Tier two (six players): your key secondary forwards and your shutdown guys.

We've got one: Kyle Okposo. Guy is a stud a complete player who contributes in all areas.

We've got five maybes: I love Sam Reinhart but we need him to be more Zetterberg and less Boyes; if he becomes our second-best player and elevate to tier one - and he could - that will elevate our chances greatly. I have not given up on Evander Kane; when he has been healthy, his speed and physicality make a difference and we need those qualities. Notwithstanding Jack, Alex NYlander is the most skilled player we've had since at least Briere; our core needs a sniper. Lehner might be our goalie; he is skilled and committed enough. With reservations, I'm adding Jake McCabe; he's a warrior with decent skills who continues to improve; he could become a #3. We are in desperate need of a #2 defenceman.

 

Tier three (seven guys): your foot soldiers

Foligno and Larsson have proven themselves in this role and I have not given up on Girgensons. They can be bottom six forwards on a winning team. Ennis has the skill to be a 6-7 but I am not sure he fits with this team any more. Bogo and Kulikov can be a middle pair. Don't think we will move forward with both of them because of contracts.

 

Tier four: depth

I think we have an excellent crop of young depth forwards - Carrier Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Asplund and Pu will all play in the NHL and give us cheap supply of talent moving forward. Hopefully some will turn into NHL regulars and move above the bottom six but we can't count it. I'd say Guhle is the only defensive prospect we have that fits that profile. There may be others, but they have a lot to prove.

 

Think I covered everyone who I think could have a future with this team.

[Thorner]

I wouldn't say Reinhart is a "maybe" to be a key secondary forward. He put up second line numbers as a 20 year old rookie last year. He's hovering around that same 40/50 point pace this year which is around what you'd be looking for, for secondary scoring, especially at his age, when we know he's going to get better. He's third in team scoring for forwards already. I would say he's solidified with Okposo in that second tier.

[JohnRobertEichel]

I look at this "core" as a concept similar to what the expansion draft protection rules aim to protect; only for me, I'd adjust it to include your starting goalie, top 4 defensemen, and top 6 forwards.

 

So at the moment, our GM probably envisions this as his core:

 

G Lehner

D Risto*

D McCabe

D Kulikov

D Bogo

LW Kane

LW Nylander

C Eichel*

C O'Reilly*

RW Reinhart*

RW Okposo*

 

The 5 guys with an asterisk are obvious pieces of the core. The other 6 will need to show a bit more over the next 1-2 years.

 

One thing that's really apparent to me is how much we need a top 2 D-man to pair with Risto, though I'm not sure how one can go about getting such a player without having a future top 5 pick (and of course I really hope we don't merely earn another one of these).

 

[JJFIVEOH]

I still don't understand the hate for Gorges. 

[Ogre]

I still don't understand the hate for Gorges.

I sent a text to my buddy working on the new bridge in Letchworth and my phone auto corrected gorge to Gorges. He's really not that bad.

[JJFIVEOH]

Haha, you know you're a Sabres fan when the phone starts autocorrecting you with names.  :lol:

 

Or you text about North Carolina state parks a lot, lol. 

 

http://www.ncparks.gov/gorges-state-park

[dudacek]

I still don't understand the hate for Gorges.

 

 

His utter lack of offence and the fact you notice him mostly on the ice when other teams score.

 

The things he does well - defensive battle, positioning, blocking shots, defending the rush, making his teammates accountable, forcing the attack to the outside, getting his stick in passing lanes, clearing the crease, penalty killing - don't showcase that well because they all happen when we're under siege and he's not good at transitioning plays in our favour after those skills disrupt an attack.

Edited December 9, 2016 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

Can we please stop referring to Derek Grant as an NHL player. Ugh!

 

Like it or not, he is.  He's tailed off lately, but he's served as a useful "life boat" during injuries to better players.  Part of depth is having AHLers that can fill holes in the big club when needed, and Grant has done that very capably.

[TrueBlueGED]

His utter lack of offence and the fact you notice him mostly on the ice when other teams score.

 

The things he does well - defensive battle, positioning, blocking shots, defending the rush, making his teammates accountable, forcing the attack to the outside, getting his stick in passing lanes, clearing the crease, penalty killing - don't showcase that well because they all happen when we're under siege and he's not good at transitioning plays in our favour after those skills disrupt an attack.

 

That last part is my biggest knock on him, because I think it fully negates the legitimate in-zone defensive value he brings. No matter how good you are defensively, if you're contributing to the team getting absolutely caved in with shot volume every time you're on the ice, you're not going to be creating net positive value for the team.

[Doohicksie]

I'm really enjoying the insights here.  I won't comment on all of them, but reading your posts I'm nodding a lot and agreeing.  I tend to fall into the Reinhart is one of our top guys camp.  Yes he still has some growth ahead of him, but he really is one of our best.  Our weakness - center - is becoming a strength.  Biggest unfilled need is on defense.  I think by the time the Sabres get that solved, the forward depth currently in Rochester will be mature and ready for a run.

[inkman]

Like it or not, he is. He's tailed off lately, but he's served as a useful "life boat" during injuries to better players. Part of depth is having AHLers that can fill holes in the big club when needed, and Grant has done that very capably.

Sure but I keep reading posters evaluating him. We need not do. He's an AHLer. When the Sabres are healthy, he doesn't sniff the NHL.

[Doohicksie]

You can't count on the team being 100% healthy.

[Randall Flagg]

That last part is my biggest knock on him, because I think it fully negates the legitimate in-zone defensive value he brings. No matter how good you are defensively, if you're contributing to the team getting absolutely caved in with shot volume every time you're on the ice, you're not going to be creating net positive value for the team.

I wonder if he'd be able to getting 13 minutes on the third pair against the Fehr line instead of 20 on the top pair against the Crosby line every night.

[qwksndmonster]

I wonder if he'd be able to getting 13 minutes on the third pair against the Fehr line instead of 20 on the top pair against the Crosby line every night.

I think he'd definitely add value as a third pairing guy, for this season anyways. Obvi you want as few one dimensional players on your roster as possible. That goes double for D-men.

[Taro T]

True core: Eichel, O'Reilly, & Ristolainen.

 

Close: (& a fair amount of this rating for the younger guys is based on their still potential ceilings)) McCabe, Okposo, Reinhart, Nylander, Kulikov, & wishfully Guhle.

 

True accessories: Larsson.

 

Close: Foligno, Kane, at least 2 of the following 4: Bailey, Baptiste, Carrier, Fasching, & hopefully Girgensons & Bogosian.

 

Maybe accessories: Nelson, Pu, Asplund (could be accessories, 2nd 2 could be core, all could be KHL bound) & Fitzwhatshisface.

 

Too old / injury prone to be considered: Gionta, Gorges, Franson, Ennis.

 

Having ~3-4 "core" forwards & 2-3 "core" D along w/ ~3-5 more accessory F's & 1 D isn't too shabby. You've got 1/2 - 3/4 of what you need & can fairly easily fill in the rest.

 

Didn't rate the goalies, but Lehner is probably viewed as core, but is probably accessory & hopefully by the time the skaters are ready to challenge, Petersen fills that other role. Almost definitely missed some prospects. Too tired to slot them in at present.

[Norcal]

Core

Eichel

Samson

ROR

Okposo

Risto

McCabe

 

Future Core Adds

Guhle

Nylander

Asplund

Fasching

 

Role Players

Foligno

Larsson

Kane

Gorges

Girgensons ( in grants role )

 

Future Role Players

Bailey

Baptiste

Oloffson

Pu

Borgen

Fitzgerald

 

Goalies

Peterson will be the #1 out of the current group

[GASabresIUFAN]

The core of this team is Eichel, Okposo, ROR, Risto and McCabe.  I like the group, but it's still not complete. Reinhart is close, but he needs to take the next step.  I actually think he should be paired with ROR rather then Jack.

 

The next piece is Larsson.  He can move up and down the lineup, is reasonable priced and plays a solid 2 way game.  He is the 3rd line center.

 

The future pieces maybe Guhle and Nylander, but we need to see them in the NHL for an extended period.

 

After that there is no one who isn't replaceable.  

[mjd1001]

I really don't know where to go with Reinhart.  He looks very limited on the ice.  He isn't fast, doesn't play with great size....while OK with the puck he isn't a wizard stickhandling...and isn't steller defensively also.  Basically, for a #2 overall pick I don't see him being anywhere close to dominant or ever being able to take over a game on any level.

 

Does that mean he is bad? Of course not, it just looks like the Sabres drafted Reinhart at #2 in a year...when in most other years he might be a #5-#10 guy...and his lack of speed makes it worse with the way the NHL is going.

 

The on the other hand...are we expecting too much production too soon?  Taylor Hall has never scored 30.  Ryan Johansen took 3 years to be productive. Huberdea  has topped out in his career at 20 goals. Galchenyuk looks great the last 2 seaons, but it took him 4 years to hit 30. So I'm not sure how I feel about Reinhart yet.

 

Are we expecting too much of him? Or is he just a guy that is not going to be able to ever take over any kind of game against anyone?

[dudacek]

I have always projected Sam as a Zetterberg, Toews, Bergeron type - a guy who dominates by outsmarting you.

He has been cast as a lurker and a support player by Bylsma who I don't think appreciates the kind of player he was and can be.

He needs to start manipulating the game instead of waiting for it to happen.

 

And I'm not sure if he will ever reach his potential in the low-risk, thought-free speed and structure game preached by Dan.

[Doohicksie]

I have always projected Sam as a Zetterberg, Toews, Bergeron type - a guy who dominates by outsmarting you.

He has been cast as a lurker and a support player by Bylsma who I don't think appreciates the kind of player he was and can be.

He needs to start manipulating the game instead of waiting for it to happen.

 

And I'm not sure if he will ever reach his potential in the low-risk, thought-free speed and structure game preached by Dan.

 

Yes.  All of it.