Let the Fire Bylsma Watch begin

[TrueBlueGED]

If Bylsma's whole thing is a grand experiment, why have we never seen a few things? Eichel on O'Reilly's wing, never. O'Reilly on Eichel's wing, never. O'Reilly on Reinhart's wing, never. I could go on. I just don't buy it at all. Byslma has his notion of who belongs where and does not deviate until injuries force his hand. Speaking of injuries forcing his hand...

 

The fact that it takes a bunch of injuries for him to put players where they are best suited is damning. His judgment is all off. Reinhart at center for an extended stretch? Nope, not until he has literally no other options. McCabe with Risto? Nope, not until Gorges gets hurt. How long did it take him to try Larsson as a matchup center last year? Until O'Reilly's injury? And so on.

 

I don't have time to respond to the rest, it it's been a fear of mine that he and Murray really are on the same page. In that case, the results speak, and they don't speak highly of that page.

Edited January 4, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[Randall Flagg]

Interesting post, BTP. I'll pull a few bits out. 

 

 

2. Bylsma's stretch-pass, chip-it-in system sucks and why don't we take better advantage of speed and skill

GMTM addressed it directly: "I think our transition game will come, but right now our O-fence comes from the O-fensive zone and small ice, so I think that as a coaching staff that we should emphasize that and keep working at that."

Even the guy building the team knows they don't have the speed and skill yet to play a different kind of game. He says he doesn't micromanage the coaches, but they sure know what he is thinking. Not saying either GMTM or Bylsma wants to play this way forever, I suspect it will change as the team changes. Maybe the COACH will even be changed at that point, but no one every imagined Lindy with the highest-scoring team in the NHL either. But right now they don't have the speed and skill to carry pucks in (other than Eichel)  all the time. Drafting Nylander with all those defensemen on the board (6 of the next 10 picks) was a clue to me GMTM still wants more speed and skill.

 

Bylsma is employing the same stretch transition system that he did in Pittsburgh, it's a part of his strategy. This is well known. He does it whether he has a first-season-post-tank team or a two-best-players-on-the-planet team. And they do have the skill/speed to employ a different style. Puck support doesn't require an elite team ready to make a stanley cup run. Carolina's puck support system is among the best in the league, and their best players are Skinner, Staal, and Rask. In terms of both depth and talent, we overwhelm their roster. More than double the "number of 20 goal scorers last season on the roster plus guys on pace for 20 this year that are different". I agree that Jack Eichel is the only one on this team with the skill to break the zone on his own. But if this is the only way to enter the zone with possession, there'd be less than 15 teams in the NHL that could ever play possession hockey. And only one line on those teams would be able to do it. Lappin, Wood, Zacha, and Henrique were absolutely killing us with controlled zone entries, because it's something they practice. If we don't have the skill to play hockey the way that the Leafs, Bruins, Hurricanes, and Devils do on zone entries, then we need to blow everything up from the owner down and sell the team, because NHL players, every single one of them, can play in puck possession systems and put up better even strength numbers than tank teams, but our 7 twenty goal guys can't for some reason.

 

As to Ristolainen - I don't mind pulling McCabe off his pair to try Guhle, Kulikov, whatever else you need to do to see what you have. But Bylsma puts Gorges there because he believes it helps the team, tonight. Just like he played Tanner Glass because he believed it helped the Penguins win, tonight. This is terrible thinking. He stuttered and bumbled when asked yesterday if he knows that Gorges' numbers are terrible and drag down Risto and the team in general when he's out there. Josh Gorges literally pulls Risto's CF% down almost 10% relative to any other LHD on the team, and forces pairings like 77-47 which have been unmitigated disasters. We haven't attempted any sort of transition rush that benefits Kulikov's game. JJ, and other Florida fans, raved about his first pass, NZ puck support, and his skating ability. That's his strength. We want to experiment and see what we have? Well, Kulikov will be a UFA before we ever get to see his strengths at play. We're trading terrible Schultz to the Penguins where he thrives in that exact type of system. We're the Oilers in the situation instead of trying to be the Pens.

 

The things he's doing with the d-corps point to trying to win now more often than seeing what we have, but the things he does often don't help either situation. We aren't better for employing a conservative 1-2-2 forecheck to go get dumped pucks, when it is well known that dumping pucks is not how teams win in the playoffs anymore. So not only do we run that style, but we run it in such a way that it's harder than usual for us to get the pucks. 

 

Why don't we experiment now with the possession hockey GMTM/Disco quotes may mysteriously paint as coming at some undetermined point in the future when we have talent? Why not? Toronto did it last year while TANKING, had decent numbers, and are now adding 19 year olds to those numbers and are going to make the playoffs. While we wait for what, exactly? Guhle and Nylander? So 200+ games before we start playing a style of hockey that might get us playoff success? And this benefits us now or in the future? I argue that it is detrimental to both. 

[That Aud Smell]

Bylsma is employing the same stretch transition system that he did in Pittsburgh, it's a part of his strategy. This is well known. He does it whether he has a first-season-post-tank team or a two-best-players-on-the-planet team. And they do have the skill/speed to employ a different style. Puck support doesn't require an elite team ready to make a stanley cup run. Carolina's puck support system is among the best in the league, and their best players are Skinner, Staal, and Rask. In terms of both depth and talent, we overwhelm their roster. More than double the "number of 20 goal scorers last season on the roster plus guys on pace for 20 this year that are different". I agree that Jack Eichel is the only one on this team with the skill to break the zone on his own. But if this is the only way to enter the zone with possession, there'd be less than 15 teams in the NHL that could ever play possession hockey. And only one line on those teams would be able to do it. Lappin, Wood, Zacha, and Henrique were absolutely killing us with controlled zone entries, because it's something they practice. If we don't have the skill to play hockey the way that the Leafs, Bruins, Hurricanes, and Devils do on zone entries, then we need to blow everything up from the owner down and sell the team, because NHL players, every single one of them, can play in puck possession systems and put up better even strength numbers than tank teams, but our 7 twenty goal guys can't for some reason.

 

This is where I've landed on Bylsma's system, approach.

 

If GM TM doesn't see what's being done as problematic, then the team is in worse trouble than I would have imagined. But I think GM TM is a smart hockey man - he knows what other teams are doing, and how they're doing it, and with what players they're doing it. I would expect GM TM to move on from Dreary Dan in fairly short order, unless there is marked improvement over the balance of the season.

I don't have time to respond to the rest, it it's been a fear of mine that he and Murray really are on the same page. In that case, the results speak, and they don't speak highly of that page.

 

I think that they are, at least for present purposes. I can't imagine that GM TM would wed himself long-term to Dreary Dan's approach, though, especially if it fails to create a winning team in fairly short order.

[Randall Flagg]

This is where I've landed on Bylsma's system, approach.

 

If GM TM doesn't see what's being done as problematic, then the team is in worse trouble than I would have imagined. But I think GM TM is a smart hockey man - he knows what other teams are doing, and how they're doing it, and with what players they're doing it. I would expect GM TM to move on from Dreary Dan in fairly short order, unless there is marked improvement over the balance of the season.

 

I think that they are, at least for present purposes. I can't imagine that GM TM would wed himself long-term to Dreary Dan's approach, though, especially if it fails to create a winning team in fairly short order.

And since DD has never changed his approach to what wins hockey, we will find ourselves right here next year, and we cannot afford to do that. It would be a catastrophic failure to be firing a coach who has us far out of playoff position, far below average NHL possession and ES scoring, and far from the last practice with puck support, in January of 2018, with expiring entry level deals for our tank prizes. Catastrophic. Failure. And totally against GMTM's vision for how quick the rebuild will be.

 

I just can't buy that DD is experimenting and will soon decide to put these guys in a better system when Nylander is here, and until then we have to be the worst scoring team in the league by necessity, and that GMTM is fine with that, as its just how he imagined everything. I cannot buy it because of DD's history of stubbornness and because of things that came out of GMTM's mouth before he ever hired Dan. And there isn't a single NHL example that shows that some limit of talent is preventing us from doing things with our system that would make us a better team now but would somehow develop our players worse than what we're doing right now.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Taro T]

I apologize, this is really long-winded ... especially bad since I haven't been around but whatever, here goes ...

 

Forgive me if this was mentioned in any way a couple weeks ago, I don't think it was ... but with all the talk of how bad Bylsma is (and he may well be, I am indifferent at this point), I can't get out of my head some things GMTM said on WGR a couple weeks ago (Dec. 16) ... I just went back and re-listened to it ... first of all, big picture I think this quote says a lot:

"I never make a suggestion, it's just 'Really, you like those two guys together?!' or something like that.... All it does is create discussion. I've said that 100 times  — "You're not going anywhere, guys. Think outside the box a little bit, discuss things, lots of talks, even if somebody brings up something crazy, it doesn't matter. I bring up crazy things every day to them." 

 

Obviously emphasis on bold part is mine. Now, we can argue whether they ever do anything "outside the box," but to me the bold part is big. I think it's possible much of the tinkering with lines and especially the defense pairings is all just experimenting and gathering information. We might not like to hear that they aren't doing every single possible thing to win THIS game RIGHT now ... but that's not a bad thing to me. It's not another tank; they want to win, but they also need to find out who can do what and who clicks with whom. They are trying to build a team that will contend for years, not just squeak into the playoffs this season, and no one is getting fired if they don't make it. Many won't like that, I am just saying that's what I think is happening.

 

Now, drilling down into two specific things that drive a lot of us crazy ... 

1. Risto's partner and why would they ever take McCabe away from him when it worked so well ... 

This was on Dec. 16, when Kulikov was playing but Bogosian was still out. When asked about McCabe with Risto, he said he's "Happy with him but not quite sure how he will handle those kind of minutes long term. Will Kulikov in that spot make us a better team? I'm not quite sure, there's still some experimenting to do. But I'm extremely happy with how (McCabe) has played in that spot."

Two thoughts: First, whether you think he's trying to justify his trade or he just likes Kulikov, he has to make a decision on him. He's in the last year of his deal. He needs to see him play with different guys and in all situations. It's easy to connect the dots and see that Bylsma understands this and is going to use him even though he hasn't been great because he knows what his GM needs. Second, I think they know now 55-29 is a good pair. They can always go back to it. They are also still searching for someone to play with 47, so they will probably give 29 looks there too, especially if GMTM sees McCabe as a 3-4 guy long-term and wants someone else — 77 or Guhle or someone he needs to go get — with Risto.

 

2. Bylsma's stretch-pass, chip-it-in system sucks and why don't we take better advantage of speed and skill

GMTM addressed it directly: "I think our transition game will come, but right now our O-fence comes from the O-fensive zone and small ice, so I think that as a coaching staff that we should emphasize that and keep working at that."

Even the guy building the team knows they don't have the speed and skill yet to play a different kind of game. He says he doesn't micromanage the coaches, but they sure know what he is thinking. Not saying either GMTM or Bylsma wants to play this way forever, I suspect it will change as the team changes. Maybe the COACH will even be changed at that point, but no one every imagined Lindy with the highest-scoring team in the NHL either. But right now they don't have the speed and skill to carry pucks in (other than Eichel)  all the time. Drafting Nylander with all those defensemen on the board (6 of the next 10 picks) was a clue to me GMTM still wants more speed and skill.

 

I guess all that is a long way of saying Bylsma maybe has to coach the team he has and not the team we all wish he had. It's not there yet. 

 

(Personally, I am OK with that. I know many are not and want them to forgot the future and make the playoffs. I want them to worry about being real contenders from when Eichel is 22 until he retires. This is more of a GMTM point and not Bylsma, but if that means NOT starting the clock on Guhle and Nylander this season so that they are still on their entry level contracts when Eichel is 23 and Reinhart is 24 and Risto is 25, then I am 100% for that because that is when they can win big, when they have good young players still cheap.)

1st off - welcome back! Your contributions are missed when you aren't here.

 

Overall, good post, but a few quibbles (most of which get covered in great detail by TB, so I'll kind of give condensed versions ;)).

 

Lindy DID have the best offensive team in the league w/ the Sabres 1 time (how soon we forget, unless you were referring to '07 rather than '16, in which case like Emily used to say 'nevermind'). He actually changed his systems to fit his talent

; Bylsma has never shown a propensity to do that.

 

Wholeheartedly agree that they shouldn't burn a year of Guhle nor Nylander (nor any other burnable youngin' that might be out there) this year. And also agree that they should experiment, but what experimentation has occurred w/out being forced by injury? Has there been ANY?

 

And, though they should be learning what these guys can do, how does forcing every single guy not named Jack to play dump & chase teach them what these guys can do? And it's not even intelligent dump & chase. Dump it where Carrier or Kane can try to get to it, don't dump it and have Moulson or Grant or D-lo the chaser. It works on the 3rd line because Gionta is fast, Foligno is reasonably fast & hits like a freight train, & Kane is fast & hits. It doesn't work on the other lines because they don't have the guys to execute it. How many times are we going to see Moulson as the 1st guy chasing the puck? What is the point of that?

 

When they're getting the puck out of the zone, they're attacking as a unit (or catching up to Eichel). When is the last game they attacked as a unit for more than 1 period?

 

You're very likely right that DB is doing what TM wants. Hope not, because we'll waste next season too.

[BetweenThePipes00]

I hear you all, that epic post was not meant as a defense of Bylsma so much as a possible explanation for some of the things he has done. As Smell says, GMTM will surely make his opinion known when he feels they should be playing a different kind of game. We'll see if Bylsma can adjust.

(By the way, I was actually talking about Lindy's Buffalo teams when I mentioned he changes his style.)

I do find this ironic ... before Bylsma was hired in PGH, Therrien basically was tasked with teaching the kids to play reaponsible 2-way hockey (including his famous "I think it's our goal to be the worst defensive team in hockey" postgame rant) ... eventually it wore thin and they brought Bylsma in and he got credit for setting them free and they ended up winninh a Cup. Then he reverted back to boring hockey too. I think it's just in old-school coaches' DNA to see any weakness in their team and try to hide it with "put it behind them! Make them play below their goal line! They'll have to come 200 feet against us! 4th and 3? PUNT!"

OK sorry that last one just slipped out. You get the point. I have no love for Disco Dan. I also don't think we'd get much different at this point with another coach ... 18 months from now? That's different.

[matter2003]

Well, sure, they MAAAAY be able to skate w/ the Rags, but who in their right mind would let 'em skate w/ the Canes & Isles?!?! It's MADNESS! Pure madness.

We have the best player on the ice, it's never madness.

[BetweenThePipes00]

Oh, I forgot to mention I have no idea why the hell the PK is a giant cluster, though. Perfect example of a chance to try something -- anything -- because it can't get much worse. For all the other details we are dissecting, if the PK was average we're probably thrilled with their record.

So again ... not trying to defend Bylsma too much.

[Randall Flagg]

I hear you all, that epic post was not meant as a defense of Bylsma so much as a possible explanation for some of the things he has done. As Smell says, GMTM will surely make his opinion known when he feels they should be playing a different kind of game. We'll see if Bylsma can adjust.

(By the way, I was actually talking about Lindy's Buffalo teams when I mentioned he changes his style.)

I do find this ironic ... before Bylsma was hired in PGH, Therrien basically was tasked with teaching the kids to play reaponsible 2-way hockey (including his famous "I think it's our goal to be the worst defensive team in hockey" postgame rant) ... eventually it wore thin and they brought Bylsma in and he got credit for setting them free and they ended up winninh a Cup. Then he reverted back to boring hockey too. I think it's just in old-school coaches' DNA to see any weakness in their team and try to hide it with "put it behind them! Make them play below their goal line! They'll have to come 200 feet against us! 4th and 3? PUNT!"

OK sorry that last one just slipped out. You get the point. I have no love for Disco Dan. I also don't think we'd get much different at this point with another coach ... 18 months from now? That's different.

I've read similar things about DDB's time in Pittsburgh, particularly right after Therrien. The team was doing almost the exact same things system-wise, but they loved DDB and were sick of Therrien, and it was exactly what they needed at the time.

And the PK is an interesting question. It was quite good last year, wasn't it? Is Legwand that important, and that much better than Grant? It looks like we do fine for most of the power play and then one breakdown later with 30 seconds left and the puck is in the net regardless of what happened before. I have to think it's largely a player/personnel issue, not that I really know anything. It's why I would like to try different forwards out there as the season goes on. (It seems like all of our defensemen get decent chunks of PK time by my memory)

[TrueBlueGED]

Was the assistant coach who left the one who ran the PK?

[dudacek]

Was the assistant coach who left the one who ran the PK?

Dave Barr I believe ran both special teams last year.

[Eric in Akron]

Bylsma should've been on the hot seat at the beginning of last year when he said the team didn't practice 3-v-3.  It is part of the game now and you didn't practice it!?  That was the first sign indicator.  Additionally, I truly believe a coach needs to be able to make adjustments quickly and anticipate the other teams strategy.  I don't think Dan does that well enough during the game.  I don't question his hockey mind just his in game abilities and the way the team prepares before a game. 

[darksabre]

Mmmm so they mustered a meager 16 shots against the Blackhawks and had to let Nilsson keep them in the game. So much for turning the Blackhawks D around, eh?

[WildCard]

Last night was the epitome of being out-coached

[That Aud Smell]

Mmmm so they mustered a meager 16 shots against the Blackhawks and had to let Nilsson keep them in the game. So much for turning the Blackhawks D around, eh?

 

GRIND THOSE B1THCES DOWN, BOYS!

More seriously: I've started paying careful attention to what a team like Chicago does in/around the neutral zone. Sure, there are times that they just need to dump it in. But several times last night, I noticed the practice of having players clustered together in triangle-ish formations as they approached the blue line - with the idea of gaining the zone and maintaining possession.

 

And, yes. The Sabres are not the Hawks. But I don't accept the idea that the Sabres are incapable of playing that style, or something approximating it.

[LTS]

GRIND THOSE B1THCES DOWN, BOYS!

More seriously: I've started paying careful attention to what a team like Chicago does in/around the neutral zone. Sure, there are times that they just need to dump it in. But several times last night, I noticed the practice of having players clustered together in triangle-ish formations as they approached the blue line - with the idea of gaining the zone and maintaining possession.

 

And, yes. The Sabres are not the Hawks. But I don't accept the idea that the Sabres are incapable of playing that style, or something approximating it.

 

It was interesting to watch that neutral zone formation.  The Rangers did the same thing a few times and caught the Sabres D man moving up to stop the puck carrier at the blue line so the chip went in behind him and the second attacker gained possession.  Could be something that teams can deploy against the Sabres or it could be their overall style.  Guess you have to watch games against other teams to know.

[WildCard]

We should have known we were screwed when we saw that that was his catch phrase

Edited January 6, 2017 by WildCard

[woods-racer]

GRIND THOSE B1THCES DOWN, BOYS!

More seriously: I've started paying careful attention to what a team like Chicago does in/around the neutral zone. Sure, there are times that they just need to dump it in. But several times last night, I noticed the practice of having players clustered together in triangle-ish formations as they approached the blue line - with the idea of gaining the zone and maintaining possession.

 

And, yes. The Sabres are not the Hawks. But I don't accept the idea that the Sabres are incapable of playing that style, or something approximating it.

 

I always just assumed that is what possession hockey is/was. Once you get the puck you create odd man rush scenarios no matter where you are on the ice.

 

Who ever has the puck skates until the opposition forces a pass, the pass is short and easy to make, to a teammate close by, then repeat. This process is always done with 3 players, the other 2 players become defensemen. The only time a team has true forward and defensemen responsibilities is once they are set up in either the O or D zone.

 

The transition game is mobile, fluid, fast (skating and passing) and the 3 players on the rush are your center, winger and the defensemen closest to the point that the puck was taken into your control. Effectively you've cut the ice in half (from goal net to goal net) and cut the defense down to the two opposing team members ( defenseman and the center) that are forced to defend that side of the ice. The third defender, the opposing teams winger is forced to skate hard and fast from deep within your own zone thus negating him from the play. It's why fast mobile defensemen are so crucial. I was also under the impression that Lindy tried to implement this a long time ago. We called it *defense joining the rush*.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Woods-Racer

[That Aud Smell]

I always just assumed that is what possession hockey is/was. Once you get the puck you create odd man rush scenarios no matter where you are on the ice..

 

I never played the game on any formal/coached level, so perhaps what I said above is super elementary.

 

Thing is: The Sabres don't do it. Not with any level of regularity, anyway.

[darksabre]

Could we get Marcus Foligno out there to show me what the hell the power play is supposed to be doing?

[woods-racer]

I never played the game on any formal/coached level, so perhaps what I said above is super elementary.

 

Thing is: The Sabres don't do it. Not with any level of regularity, anyway.

 

You where/are absolutely right, they don't.

 

I was just giving you my perceived interpretation of possession hockey and trying to put into words what your seeing from other teams that  make the Sabres look bad with less skilled players, i.e. Devils and Hurricanes. 

 

 I apologize if it came off as anything other than supporting your post.

[Mig22]

a) Better record than last year

b) weathered an unreal injury storm

c) still in his second season.  

 

Bylsma stays as long as he doesn't lose the room whether the system is attractive or not.  This is a long term project and this Sabres team is NOT talented enough to do more than squeak into the playoffs this year...just like almost every NHL season prediction stated.  Just like the models which add up player performance numbers show (see @IneffectiveMath on Twitter for an example).  

 

Get used to Dan.

[qwksndmonster]

This team is definitely talented enough to solidly make the playoffs, injuries and all. We have a great stable of forwards and a coach with no clue what to do with them.

[woods-racer]

Sadly, to have a better record than last year they are going to need to finish very strong.

[DirtDart]

a) Better record than last year

b) weathered an unreal injury storm

c) still in his second season.  

 

Bylsma stays as long as he doesn't lose the room whether the system is attractive or not.  This is a long term project and this Sabres team is NOT talented enough to do more than squeak into the playoffs this year...just like almost every NHL season prediction stated.  Just like the models which add up player performance numbers show (see @IneffectiveMath on Twitter for an example).  

 

Get used to Dan.

Great post, you have echoed what I have believed are the issue leading to the inconsistency we see on the ice.