Let the Fire Bylsma Watch begin

[darksabre]

Good stuff Flagg, Chz.

So, consensus is that Bylsma is killing this team. 

How do we explain a game like last night in that context?

[WildCard]

Good stuff Flagg, Chz.

 

So, consensus is that Bylsma is killing this team.

 

How do we explain a game like last night in that context?

Paper covers rock. Only thing is, 27 other teams in the league play with scissors

[woods-racer]

You wont be waiting long.

Although I must say it happens lees than it did earlier in the year.

 

Is it because DB has tried to remove the long stretch pass from their transition game?

 

or

 

 

Is it because of injuries?

 

 The mix of Fedun/Guhle/Falk give the team a decent  amount of speed/skating/puck handling abilities on the back end. It seems to negate Dan's long first pass out of the d zone that is so hard to make and receive. That first pass is often tipped in for the dump potion of his dump and chase offense .

 

So almost by default, and with reasonable success, by the addition of young mobile defense they render the dump and chase mute and play a game that is to the strengths of our skilled forwards. A fast short passed transition game like we saw in the first period of the Ranger game.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Woods-Racer

[TrueBlueGED]

Paper covers rock. Only thing is, 27 other teams in the league play with scissors

Nice.

 

It's also always worth keeping in mind that hockey is a pretty random sport game to game, and this fact can usually explain an individual weird result.

[darksabre]

Paper covers rock. Only thing is, 27 other teams in the league play with scissors

 

 

Is it because DB has tried to remove the long stretch pass from their transition game?

 

or

 

 

Is it because of injuries?

 

 The mix of Fedun/Guhle/Falk give the team a decent  amount of speed/skating/puck handling abilities on the back end. It seems to negate Dan's long first pass out of the d zone that is so hard to make and receive. That first pass is often tipped in for the dump potion of his dump and chase offense .

 

So almost by default, and with reasonable success, by the addition of young mobile defense they render the dump and chase mute and play a game that is to the strengths of our skilled forwards. A fast short passed transition game like we saw in the first period of the Ranger game.

 

 

Nice.

 

It's also always worth keeping in mind that hockey is a pretty random sport game to game, and this fact can usually explain an individual weird result.

So are we saying it was an accident? Or a product of roster shakeup? 

 

Do we have data to support this? 

[WildCard]

Both an accident and Byslma's system works against the Rangers, but the Rangers play a weird game

Edited January 4, 2017 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

So are we saying it was an accident? Or a product of roster shakeup?

 

Do we have data to support this?

We match up well with the Rangers. They win by having great scoring depth and creating dangerous chances in transition. Our neutral zone defensive scheme does a pretty good job of neutralizing those types of chances. Additionally, their blue line is pretty slow footed outside of McDonagh, so our chip n chase does allow us to get behind them with a reasonable chance of recovering the puck, unlike against other teams.

 

So it's not just luck, but luck plays a part. For instance, even though he's having a down year, Lundqvist was still worse last night than he's been playing this season. We got lucky to hit a goalie on an off night. Wasn't the first time it happened this year, won't be the last. Good teams lose to bad teams. And so on. It happens, doesn't mean it's evidence that prior conclusions about bad team being bad are wrong.

[jsb]

Price goes down, Montreal goes from one of the top teams in the league to out of the playoffs

Stamkos goes down this year, the Lightning goes from one of the top teams to 6 points ahead of us with 2 games more played

 

The Sabres lose 2 of their top 4 D for the equivalent of 1/2 the season and lose Kane, ROR and Eichel for the equivalent of over 1/2 the season and we want to blame all the failures of this team on the Coach???

 

You don't need fancy stats to see what's wrong with this team, you need reality maybe??? 

[That Aud Smell]

We match up well with the Rangers. They win by having great scoring depth and creating dangerous chances in transition. Our neutral zone defensive scheme does a pretty good job of neutralizing those types of chances. Additionally, their blue line is pretty slow footed outside of McDonagh, so our chip n chase does allow us to get behind them with a reasonable chance of recovering the puck, unlike against other teams.

 

So it's not just luck, but luck plays a part. For instance, even though he's having a down year, Lundqvist was still worse last night than he's been playing this season. We got lucky to hit a goalie on an off night. Wasn't the first time it happened this year, won't be the last. Good teams lose to bad teams. And so on. It happens, doesn't mean it's evidence that prior conclusions about bad team being bad are wrong.

 

Thanks for putting words to this. I saw it, but hadn't yet formulated it as a coherent thought. Eichel even said in his post-game comments - something about that's how we can succeed when we get pucks behind the other team's D and play hard/fast on it.

 

Last night's result does not change my opinion on that style of play. It's dumb.

 

Price goes down, Montreal goes from one of the top teams in the league to out of the playoffs

Stamkos goes down this year, the Lightning goes from one of the top teams to 6 points ahead of us with 2 games more played

 

The Sabres lose 2 of their top 4 D for the equivalent of 1/2 the season and lose Kane, ROR and Eichel for the equivalent of over 1/2 the season and we I want to blame all a large majority share of the failures of this team on the Coach???

 

You don't need fancy stats to see what's wrong with this team, you need reality maybe??? 

 

As modified, absolutely.

[woods-racer]

Price goes down, Montreal goes from one of the top teams in the league to out of the playoffs

Stamkos goes down this year, the Lightning goes from one of the top teams to 6 points ahead of us with 2 games more played

 

The Sabres lose 2 of their top 4 D for the equivalent of 1/2 the season and lose Kane, ROR and Eichel for the equivalent of over 1/2 the season and we want to blame all the failures of this team on the Coach???

 

You don't need fancy stats to see what's wrong with this team, you need reality maybe??? 

 

 

This team with it's Rochester call ups is still way better than the tank teams, but yet the stats show otherwise. 

 

The Stamkos scenario actually works against you because they looked just as good with out him as they did when he got back for their deep playoff run last year.

 

Price was/is Montreal. He's our Hasek. One of those goalies comes along every decade and they make average teams good and good teams winners. Only a great goalie can do that, we don't have one of them.

 

So yes, coaching is a large part of this.

[dudacek]

Are the Rangers defending the neutral zone?

Because I saw actual line rushes last night, and the puck being carried in over the blue line.

Maybe it was just an illusion created by Reinhart at centre because damn he was making good decisions with the puck.

Edited January 4, 2017 by dudacek

[WildCard]

Are the Rangers ###### defending the neutral zone?

Because I saw actual line rushes last night, and the puck being carried in over the blue line.

Maybe it was just an illusion created by Reinhart at centre because damn he was making good decisions with the puck.

I'd imagine it's because they're looking for stretch passes out of the zone so they're forwards are cheating up ice

[Randall Flagg]

Are the Rangers ###### defending the neutral zone?

Because I saw actual line rushes last night, and the puck being carried in over the blue line.

Maybe it was just an illusion created by Reinhart at centre because damn he was making good decisions with the puck.

Their defense might be the worst in the league, yah. It's absolutely pathetic. Girardi is the worst contract in the league of a player still playing except maybe Brown.

 

We were doing the usual, but it was working more than never because of the opportunities the Rangers gave us, IMO. I didn't see any difference except we could actually beat these guys to some pucks and they gave us a couple odd man rushes, and Sam/Kane finished one of them.

[Samson's Flow]

Because Bylsma's system is built around the way he had to play to try and stay in the league years ago, and not the way that you have to play now to be successful in the NHL. He has them sacrifice possession intentionally, and has the forwards evacuate the zone so early that the only options are a one-on-five carry or a low-percentage stretch pass. When we get the puck at some point in between those, say, a forward recovers in the top of the zone, there's no neutral zone puck support activity, and it's incredibly easy for other teams to adjust and make that guy either force a bad pass to guys who are along the boards on either side and easy to squeeze out, or dump away the puck.

 

The observation has been made that we don't seem to have the talent to make or receive passes. I don't think this is true. We have 7 guys capable of putting 20 goals up (the 06-07 team had 6 guys do it IIRC). I think we have plenty of players who would thrive in a puck support, whole-team-transition system like those employed by Tampa, Carolina, Boston, Chicago, Toronto etc. I think ROR and Reinhart would be devastating to play against in a system like this. But the way our players are positioned and the things they are instructed to do lend to a much larger percent of low-percentage passes than any other team that I watch, especially those possession teams. The only stretch passes I see those teams make are for breakaways. Speaking of, name the last 2 on 1 or breakaway this team has had. There are times where I laugh out loud at the sheer number of ###### pass attempts we make because there's no other option available to us, because unlike almost every good team, we don't have any puck support system set up to speak of. The only times I ever see it are on accident, usually after the other team turns it over and we start with the puck in an atypical spot. 

 

Also, when was the last time we had a defenseman truly activate in the offensive zone, without the puck on his stick? And I don't mean a simple cautious pinch attempt. I'm being completely honest when I say that the last time I remember this was last season, in Pittsburgh. I'll go find the video now.

 

Here it is: https://youtu.be/K3vESF8_yhA?t=12

 

It's not a coincidence that our defensemen, save Risto, are all having down years offensively. All they do is stretch pass and lob shots off their back foot from the point, facing a lot of pressure, into shin pads. 

 

But anyway, so many teams know what we're doing on transition and know exactly how to snuff it out, and more and more are trying to build mobile defensive corps, which happen to be extremely effective at taking away the chance of dump-in recovery. The result is stretches like the 2nd period against Carolina where we went six full consecutive minutes without the puck on our stick in the offensive zone. All even strength. And when it gets taken away from us, our coach hasn't attempted to, or doesn't know how to, adjust. The assistant coaches just come out for their intermission interviews and say we weren't taking the body and skating hard enough.

I really truly believe that Kulikov's down year is more due to misuse than his injury. The things that Florida fans said to look forward to just don't happen the way we play hockey. All we ever get to see are his weaknesses on full display.

Beautiful post my man. 

 

I agree on all points.

[LTS]

Price goes down, Montreal goes from one of the top teams in the league to out of the playoffs

Stamkos goes down this year, the Lightning goes from one of the top teams to 6 points ahead of us with 2 games more played

 

The Sabres lose 2 of their top 4 D for the equivalent of 1/2 the season and lose Kane, ROR and Eichel for the equivalent of over 1/2 the season and we want to blame all the failures of this team on the Coach???

 

You don't need fancy stats to see what's wrong with this team, you need reality maybe??? 

 

The Sabres haven't proven they can win with those players in the lineup either.  I think the key is that they are generally performing the same regardless of who is in the lineup and as such you have to look at the coach.  Either that or you want to say your skilled players aren't as good.

 

Moreover, Kulikov and Gorges are not the top 4 D on most good teams are they?  I mean.. losing a SUPERSTAR player is more impactful than losing a STAR player... and so on.  Eichel and ROR are great players... but they are not yet Stamkos and Price.

[jsb]

This team with it's Rochester call ups is still way better than the tank teams, but yet the stats show otherwise. 

 

The Stamkos scenario actually works against you because they looked just as good with out him as they did when he got back for their deep playoff run last year.

 

Price was/is Montreal. He's our Hasek. One of those goalies comes along every decade and they make average teams good and good teams winners. Only a great goalie can do that, we don't have one of them.

 

So yes, coaching is a large part of this.

 

The Sabres haven't proven they can win with those players in the lineup either.  I think the key is that they are generally performing the same regardless of who is in the lineup and as such you have to look at the coach.  Either that or you want to say your skilled players aren't as good.

 

Moreover, Kulikov and Gorges are not the top 4 D on most good teams are they?  I mean.. losing a SUPERSTAR player is more impactful than losing a STAR player... and so on.  Eichel and ROR are great players... but they are not yet Stamkos and Price.

My analogies were to show that the heart and soul of Montreal and Tampa have had detrimental results for their teams when they were injured and to show the multitude of injuries that never seem to end for this team has had the same effect for the Sabres. We have not been 100% healthy this entire season, from Jack to Kane to all the other combinations together.

 

By the way, Gorges is my personal bunker Dman, he was not to be included in the top 4 I was alluding to. Bogosian and Kulikov were the 2 just as an FYI....

[Randall Flagg]

I had a nightmare last night. ROR comes back, Samson goes back to wing. Continues to waste time developing as not-a-center. We continue with the meager 5v5 production we've shown for the last 119 games, and continue to lose because of it, finishing with 75-80 points. DDB DOESN'T get fired despite his refusal to look up possession stats of successful playoff teams and realize that his hockey by definition is bad at that. We start out next season predictably slow, with no 5v5 offense, just like every other year, and he finally gets fired. But the slow start means that we just wasted the entirety of Jack-and-Sam's ELC. And Sam barely played center, and we didn't even come close to the playoffs, while the Leafs lost in the first round in 2017 and win one or two in 2018, showing us that it's not just because we're a young inexperienced team. 

 

But really, this is why I want Dan gone this season, and soon. He's never shown an ability to adjust, in a game, a series, or a season. This was cited as a reason why he was fired. If we keep Dan, we WILL finish dead last or near it in 5v5 scoring, we WILL comfortably miss the playoffs, and we WILL start poorly next season, and then poof, nothing comes from the ELCs of our stars. What a waste. 

 

Get outta here, Disco.

[dudacek]

 

Moreover, Kulikov and Gorges are not the top 4 D on most good teams are they?.

It's interesting to note that each has been a top-4 guy for the majority of his career and was playing first pair on a playoff team when moved for "futures" by GMs who clearly thought they could be replaced.

[WildCard]

Well Gorges is just old

[Jsixspd]

Yeah, but he's really gone downhill in the past two seasons under Bylsma's coaching.  Might be age in Gorges' case- but he's not the only player whose stats are down under Bylsma.  That makes the first suspect the system and the coaching, not the player.  I was harsh on Gorges earlier this year - but it might not be his fault at all.  

[BetweenThePipes00]

I apologize, this is really long-winded ... especially bad since I haven't been around but whatever, here goes ...

 

Forgive me if this was mentioned in any way a couple weeks ago, I don't think it was ... but with all the talk of how bad Bylsma is (and he may well be, I am indifferent at this point), I can't get out of my head some things GMTM said on WGR a couple weeks ago (Dec. 16) ... I just went back and re-listened to it ... first of all, big picture I think this quote says a lot:

"I never make a suggestion, it's just 'Really, you like those two guys together?!' or something like that.... All it does is create discussion. I've said that 100 times  — "You're not going anywhere, guys. Think outside the box a little bit, discuss things, lots of talks, even if somebody brings up something crazy, it doesn't matter. I bring up crazy things every day to them." 

 

Obviously emphasis on bold part is mine. Now, we can argue whether they ever do anything "outside the box," but to me the bold part is big. I think it's possible much of the tinkering with lines and especially the defense pairings is all just experimenting and gathering information. We might not like to hear that they aren't doing every single possible thing to win THIS game RIGHT now ... but that's not a bad thing to me. It's not another tank; they want to win, but they also need to find out who can do what and who clicks with whom. They are trying to build a team that will contend for years, not just squeak into the playoffs this season, and no one is getting fired if they don't make it. Many won't like that, I am just saying that's what I think is happening.

 

Now, drilling down into two specific things that drive a lot of us crazy ... 

1. Risto's partner and why would they ever take McCabe away from him when it worked so well ... 

This was on Dec. 16, when Kulikov was playing but Bogosian was still out. When asked about McCabe with Risto, he said he's "Happy with him but not quite sure how he will handle those kind of minutes long term. Will Kulikov in that spot make us a better team? I'm not quite sure, there's still some experimenting to do. But I'm extremely happy with how (McCabe) has played in that spot."

Two thoughts: First, whether you think he's trying to justify his trade or he just likes Kulikov, he has to make a decision on him. He's in the last year of his deal. He needs to see him play with different guys and in all situations. It's easy to connect the dots and see that Bylsma understands this and is going to use him even though he hasn't been great because he knows what his GM needs. Second, I think they know now 55-29 is a good pair. They can always go back to it. They are also still searching for someone to play with 47, so they will probably give 29 looks there too, especially if GMTM sees McCabe as a 3-4 guy long-term and wants someone else — 77 or Guhle or someone he needs to go get — with Risto.

 

2. Bylsma's stretch-pass, chip-it-in system sucks and why don't we take better advantage of speed and skill

GMTM addressed it directly: "I think our transition game will come, but right now our O-fence comes from the O-fensive zone and small ice, so I think that as a coaching staff that we should emphasize that and keep working at that."

Even the guy building the team knows they don't have the speed and skill yet to play a different kind of game. He says he doesn't micromanage the coaches, but they sure know what he is thinking. Not saying either GMTM or Bylsma wants to play this way forever, I suspect it will change as the team changes. Maybe the COACH will even be changed at that point, but no one every imagined Lindy with the highest-scoring team in the NHL either. But right now they don't have the speed and skill to carry pucks in (other than Eichel)  all the time. Drafting Nylander with all those defensemen on the board (6 of the next 10 picks) was a clue to me GMTM still wants more speed and skill.

 

I guess all that is a long way of saying Bylsma maybe has to coach the team he has and not the team we all wish he had. It's not there yet. 

 

(Personally, I am OK with that. I know many are not and want them to forgot the future and make the playoffs. I want them to worry about being real contenders from when Eichel is 22 until he retires. This is more of a GMTM point and not Bylsma, but if that means NOT starting the clock on Guhle and Nylander this season so that they are still on their entry level contracts when Eichel is 23 and Reinhart is 24 and Risto is 25, then I am 100% for that because that is when they can win big, when they have good young players still cheap.)

[SwampD]

Good post.

[That Aud Smell]

2. Bylsma's stretch-pass, chip-it-in system sucks and why don't we take better advantage of speed and skill

GMTM addressed it directly: "I think our transition game will come, but right now our O-fence comes from the O-fensive zone and small ice, so I think that as a coaching staff that we should emphasize that and keep working at that."

Even the guy building the team knows they don't have the speed and skill yet to play a different kind of game. He says he doesn't micromanage the coaches, but they sure know what he is thinking. Not saying either GMTM or Bylsma wants to play this way forever, I suspect it will change as the team changes. Maybe the COACH will even be changed at that point, but no one every imagined Lindy with the highest-scoring team in the NHL either. But right now they don't have the speed and skill to carry pucks in (other than Eichel)  all the time. Drafting Nylander with all those defensemen on the board (6 of the next 10 picks) was a clue to me GMTM still wants more speed and skill.

 

Pipes!

 

Good to hear from you.

 

I heard that same interview, I think.

 

It does make me wonder, though: Aren't there teams with less speed and skill that play a possession-based game? Or is that not really the case?

 

It does occur to me that a team that dresses Grant and D-Lo may not be prepared to play a possession-based game.

[darksabre]

Great post BTP. 

[BetweenThePipes00]

Pipes!

 

Good to hear from you.

 

I heard that same interview, I think.

 

It does make me wonder, though: Aren't there teams with less speed and skill that play a possession-based game? Or is that not really the case?

 

It does occur to me that a team that dresses Grant and D-Lo may not be prepared to play a possession-based game.

Thanks, good to be back.

I have no idea, perhaps they totally could still play differently, I don't know enough about systems. That point came to me just as a re-listened so I put it in there. Also it could be argued if he wants them to try things then why do they not try anything but that same boring style. 

But I do think the main point that they are going to keep tinkering with who plays with whom applies no matter what. Not only long-term but for this season. As bad as they have been, they are ahead of last year's pace. They got better the second half last season, perhaps because once Bylsma knew what he had, he deployed it better.  

Let's just hope whoever the coach is when they are good doesn't need a half-season to figure these things out. Injuries were certainly a factor in this area this season.

Edited January 4, 2017 by BetweenThePipes00