Were Past Tank Seasons Even Over in November?

[DarthEbriate]

So, what if the Chicago Blackhawks were missing their two best players?

And what if their second- and third-best defencemen were out, or hampered by injuries?

What if their best-rounded winger broke his ribs in the first game of the season and came back looking like a shadow of his normal self?

What if the veteran they were pencilling in to add scoring depth started the season shaking off concussion rust and then popped a hernia?

 

Wouldn't that mean their roster would look something like this?

 

Panarin/Anisimov/Motte...

 

Didn't want to repost your entire list here for scrolling, but yes! Exactly. I tried the same exercise with Edmonton (no McJesus, no Draisaitl, but kept RNH in the Larsson role, no Sekera (Kuli), etc.) and they'd be horrific.

 

Remember, this team was 1 game under .500 and I believe at an even GF/GA before the injuries really derailed us. I don't think anyone thought we'd be a fantastic division-leading team, but we were right with all the other 3-4-5 division teams. Then Bogosian, Kulivkov, O'Reilly, and Ennis in rapid succession. We got Kane back, but he's playing without the ability to shoot the puck or throw a hit because his ribs are still healing -- he probably should have rested another week or two, really.

 

Since then -- yes, we've played horribly. There's been lack of grit/finishing checks/clearing the crease, there's been lack of winning races to loose pucks, and an alarming lack of urgency when trailing by a single goal. And an overwhelming number of hit posts and snapped sticks, too.

 

The only thing I'd really have changed if I had my druthers would be a legit experienced NHL D-man as our 7th to start the season. Nelson needed the big minutes/PP time in Rochester.

 

I don't buy it. The problem is that Kane is not good to begin with and our top 2 D are not even in the same universe as Chicago.

 

O'Reilly was not missing until 3 games ago and as far as I can see, their farm system is not ideal.

 

My fear is that they took the shortcut via trades and they missed. If Lehner does not look like a top 10 goalie......add another wasted 1st rounder.

 

By the way, what the hell happened to Girgs, he's a 4th liner on a Cup team.

 

Kane is a good player -- when he's forechecking and can hit, and when he is the threat to shoot from anywhere. He's none of those things right now because of the injury.

 

As of this moment Cal O'Reilly and Cole Schneider are at the top of the AHL scoring leaderboard (and still very good 12th and 7th in points/game, respectively). The Amerks are .500 because of injuries to the big club (and one really bad game for Kasdorf). The Lehner and Kasdorf acquisitions may be our undoing, but I'm not disappointed in Lehner. Except in shootouts!

 

If Eichel were healthy on our opening day roster, it's a good bet Girgensons was on the 4th line. There's the caveat that Grant did have a whale of a preseason and has been great on the PK -- so this one I'm not certain of. Girgensons might have ended up as a 3rd line winger with Eichel in the lineup. But I'm guessing 4th with Eichel/Okposo both able to play. (I'm not saying the Sabres opening day roster is a Cup team. At least not yet.)

[jahnyc]

Seem to be a lot of problems, including the lack of development from many of our young players and, in some cases, regression.  Foligno, Girgenson, Reinhart and Ennis have been disappointments.  Reinhart is not playing like a #2 overall draft pick.  They are young players and things can change, but it is concerning.  I also get it that injuries have been a problem, so maybe this is not an entirely fair assessment, particularly with regard to Ennis, but I was expecting more from these players and others, such as Larsson, Fasching and Carrier.

 

I also do not have a lot of confidence in our pipeline of talent.  I would have thought that we would have better prospects at this point.  I do not see much on defense now, and other than Guhle, is there much in our system?

 

GMTM had a lot of picks to play with and he made some trades, some of which (i.e., Kane) have not worked out.  I just don't have a lot of confidence in our rebuild.  Maybe we started as such a depleted level of talent we all underestimated the time and work it was going to take to replenish the talent level, but I don't like where we are now.

[dudacek]

But I reject the premise that the injuries prevent us from evaluating anything. I feel like those who are fighting back against the bitching (some of which is hysteria, sure, but much of it is in fact thought-out and reasoned) are, rather than being level-headed about what we can expect from a half-AHL roster, are at the opposite end of the extreme and throwing up their hands while saying we neither know, nor can know, anything. In my view, the underlying problems with the team do not vanish with a healthy roster, even if a healthy roster squeezes out more wins.

I was responding to the hysteria, not the well-reasoned criticisms. I think I made that clear.

Saying the team is better than it has shown is not saying it is good enough, or that Eichel will be the magic bullet.

Saying Franson is a perfectly serviceable sixth defencemen is not saying that our defence shouldn't be improved.

And I am not certain who is saying you can't learn anything from what we are watching.

 

I've learned that

• Our team has a pathological aversion to creative offensive zone passing and line rushes
• Sam Reinhart is not close to the player I think he can be
• Zemgus Girgensons will not be the player I thought he could be, at least not in this system.
• Our young wingers (Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste and Fasching) have promise but they aren't ready yet.
• Our players, with the exception of the third line, focus more on playing the system than playing the game, maybe because the third line is the only group that has a skill set that fits the system.
• Our coach trusts systems more than players. That's tied to the previous points. Not sure if it's chicken or egg, but I tend to blame the coach.
• Injuries or not, there is a desperate need for a puck-moving dman, probably two.
• Our forwards don't look to the point or the slot with the puck in the offensive zone
• Our defencemen don't try to score goals, or even get shots to the net
• Casey Nelson is a long way away from handling NHL size and speed and I suspect never will get there.
• Robin Lehner is good, but not as good as I hoped
• We have a legitimate NHL third line. Too bad it's getting second-line minutes.
• We have desperate need for talented centres who can create against top competition, guys like Eichel and O'Reilly
• Kyle Okposo is very good. He is the only player on this team right now who plays like he actually thinks he should score.
• We still have a desperate need for a fast, tough winger with a big shot - someone like the concept of Evander Kane.

No reasonable person should expect this lineup to be good. No reasonable person should expect the way this lineup has played to be a realistic representation of what this team is. No reasonable person should have expected this to be a smooth road to the cup. No reasonable person should have expected even a healthy team to look like a cup contender barely into Murray's third year. What we see - with or without injuries - doesn't mean Murray is a success or a failure. By all means question his individual moves, but acknowledge he shouldn't be judged on the first 17 games of this year.

 

It is reasonable, given what we've seen, to doubt whether Kane, Bogosian, Bylsma and even Reinhart can be what we need them to be. It's reasonable, given what we've seen, to think that Eichel, O'Reilly and Okposo can be what we need them to be. Risto and Lehner look pretty good, time will tell if they are good enough. These are the people Murray has gone after. These are the people that matter. No reasonable person expects Murray's drafts to be creating a usable NHL pipeline yet. No one expects the Moulsons and the Fransons to be part of the core when we're good. They aren't part of the core now.

 

Of course, the underlying questions do not vanish with a healthy roster.

But the hysteria might and it's the hysteria I am struggling with.

Edited November 19, 2016 by dudacek

[Kruppstahl]

Hope  you don`t think that I think they are not sucking right now, I just don`t understand how you expect anything different with all the injuries.

 

Are you saying you think things won`t improve when they get their guys back?

Of course the team will improve when the injured players return.

 

The question, though, is how much will they improve.

 

This team is a lot worse than some think even with a healthy Eichel.

 

We have 4 key players in place.  That's it.  We are still thin throughout the roster even when everyone is healthy.

[dudacek]

http://www.tsn.ca/bylsma-can-stand-on-his-track-record-1.293813

I read that too. Most of those games, it was one or the other, not both.

And, more to the point, this was a team coming off a Stanley Cup, not a team coming off a serious tank.

 

Anyone can play the anecdote game.

Or have you missed the Montreal Canadiens with or without Carey Price?

Edited November 19, 2016 by dudacek

[matter2003]

I'm at the point I think Bylsma needs to go...we may not have elite top end talent but we damn sure have enough talent to score more than one goal a game, even without Eichel.

 

Bylsma seems determined to stifle offensive output to play great defense except our defense isn't good enough to play that style.

 

Our team doesn't score goals and that was the same issue for most of last year. Since we can't change all the players, we need to change coaches. I don't care that Eichel isn't there, plenty of teams have no one near as good as him with less talent behind him and score 2-3 goals a night.

 

His coaching is an embarrassment at this point

[Crusader1969]

Of course the team will improve when the injured players return.

 

The question, though, is how much will they improve.

 

This team is a lot worse than some think even with a healthy Eichel.

 

We have 4 key players in place.  That's it.  We are still thin throughout the roster even when everyone is healthy.

How could you possibly know what this team would be like with a healthy Eichel?

[TrueBlueGED]

Dudacek, I'm not quoting your giant wall of excellent text. I read your initial post as a giant shoulder shrug, but I obviously got the tone wrong. Let's have sex.

 

But there are many (or were, I think they've abandoned us for the time being :lol:) who were saying it's hard to judge things with the injuries. Particularly when it comes to coaching. Hell, Tim Murray himself even falls into that category.

[SwampD]

I don't buy it. The problem is that Kane is not good to begin with and our top 2 D are not even in the same universe as Chicago.

 

O'Reilly was not missing until 3 games ago and as far as I can see, their farm system is not ideal.

 

My fear is that they took the shortcut via trades and they missed. If Lehner does not look like a top 10 goalie......add another wasted 1st rounder.

 

By the way, what the hell happened to Girgs, he's a 4th liner on a Cup team.

Are you saying that's what he looks like now? If so, I would disagree. he does not look that good. In my mind, that has always been his ceiling.

[Thorner]

I was responding to the hysteria, not the well-reasoned criticisms. I think I made that clear.

Saying the team is better than it has shown is not saying it is good enough, or that Eichel will be the magic bullet.

Saying Franson is a perfectly serviceable sixth defencemen is not saying that our defence shouldn't be improved.

And I am not certain who is saying you can't learn anything from what we are watching.

 

...

 

 

Good post.

 

I would argue, though, that we couldn't reliastically doubt Reinhart's ability to become what we need him to be, given that in all likehood what we need/what they want from him is to be Eichel's winger. He showed an excellent aptitude for that last season, and that was as a rookie. He'll put up points in a top 6 wing role as long as we have our two top 6 centres.

 

I think if we were counting on Sam to be a top 6 centre for us, it would be reasonable to doubt his ability to get there. He may develop into that as he's still quite young, but we don't know for sure.

 

But injuries aside, I believe we are counting on Reinhart to be a complimentary scoring line winger, and for this he seems more than adequate.

Edited November 19, 2016 by Thorny

[Stoner]

Dudacek, I'm not quoting your giant wall of excellent text. I read your initial post as a giant shoulder shrug, but I obviously got the tone wrong. Let's have sex.

 

But there are many (or were, I think they've abandoned us for the time being :lol:) who were saying it's hard to judge things with the injuries. Particularly when it comes to coaching. Hell, Tim Murray himself even falls into that category.

One could also argue that you can judge Murray in light of the injuries. I mean, how was he supposed to know that Bogosian would be hurt a lot? It's not like there was any history of that in Winnipeg. (I asked in another thread, basically, whether the injuries are a symptom and not the disease per se. Poor player selection, inability of players to stay healthy, incompetent training staff, etc.)

[TrueBlueGED]

Good post.

 

I would argue, though, that we couldn't reliastically doubt Reinhart's ability to become what we need him to be, given that in all likehood what we need/what they want from him is to be Eichel's winger. He showed an excellent aptitude for that last season, and that was as a rookie. He'll put up points in a top 6 wing role as long as we have our two top 6 centres.

 

I think if we were counting on Sam to be a top 6 centre for us, it would be reasonable to doubt his ability to get there. He may develop into that as he's still quite young, but we don't know for sure.

 

But injuries aside, I believe we are counting on Reinhart to be a complimentary scoring line winger, and for this he seems more than adequate.

I'm not sure I agree with this. He has what, 10 NHL games at center?

One could also argue that you can judge Murray in light of the injuries. I mean, how was he supposed to know that Bogosian would be hurt a lot? It's not like there was any history of that in Winnipeg. (I asked in another thread, basically, whether the injuries are a symptom and not the disease per se. Poor player selection, inability of players to stay healthy, incompetent training staff, etc.)

I think some players are certainly more susceptible to injury than others (whether that's play style or genetics...probably either or both), but being able to separate that from just a run of bad luck takes a lot of time. Don't think we've had enough time with Lehner, but the health book on Bogo and Kane is pretty much written.

[Thorner]

I'm not sure I agree with this. He has what, 10 NHL games at center?

Sorry, I mean doubt as in some may think he doesn't have the ability to get there, and it would be a valid viewpoint. I don't believe it to be accurate, I think he has the ability to be a solid 2C, but it's far from guaranteed.

[TrueBlueGED]

Sorry, I mean doubt as in some may think he doesn't have the ability to get there, and it would be a valid viewpoint. I don't believe it to be accurate, I think he has the ability to be a solid 2C, but it's far from guaranteed.

I got what you meant, I'm just not sure I agree it's valid. I mean it's valid in the sense that it's not arguing to convert him to a goalie, but it depends on the argument being made. If it's a skill set argument that's one thing, but if it's based upon performance after so few games, that I'd have to reject.

[Thorner]

I got what you meant, I'm just not sure I agree it's valid. I mean it's valid in the sense that it's not arguing to convert him to a goalie, but it depends on the argument being made. If it's a skill set argument that's one thing, but if it's based upon performance after so few games, that I'd have to reject.

Of course. I've even been on the record here saying I haven't minded his game even this season so far, and I personally don't doubt his ability to master the NHL center ice position. Center is his natural position, after all.

 

But any reasonable argument based on what they've seen from him all along, and how he's so far translated to the NHL, that holds the view they don't believe centre is where he'll excel, I think is a valid view to take.

 

My main point was more about what the Sabres seemingly expect him to become for them, and the very strong likelihood he is able to become that.

Edited November 19, 2016 by Thorny

[Jacque Richard]

I'm at the point I think Bylsma needs to go...we may not have elite top end talent but we damn sure have enough talent to score more than one goal a game, even without Eichel.

Bylsma seems determined to stifle offensive output to play great defense except our defense isn't good enough to play that style.

Our team doesn't score goals and that was the same issue for most of last year. Since we can't change all the players, we need to change coaches. I don't care that Eichel isn't there, plenty of teams have no one near as good as him with less talent behind him and score 2-3 goals a night.

His coaching is an embarrassment at this point

Agree. They better get their act together real fast over there.

[Randall Flagg]

How many games has ROR missed? He's played most of them.

The way we looked when we only were missing a 56 point player is the exact same way we look now. We're scoring a teensy bit less now, but were never lighting the world on fire before. 

Bylsma is a terrible coach, whether it makes this place unreadable or not. There has been plenty of thoughtful elaboration on this idea, and plenty of obnoxious hysteria the other way. Both of those things come with any opinion on this site. 

Tank level scoring with a roster that, no matter how many holes it has, is miles better from Mitchell/Flynn/D'agostini leading forwards in ice time.

 

That said, to the thread title, yes, the tank seasons were much more over in November than this one is. A good stretch can pull us out of this funk in time for Jack.

I don't expect that to happen, but it can still happen.

[dudacek]

ROR has been hurt since training camp and our worst performances, to me at least, have been the ones where he hasn't played.

I think our record reflects that.

 

Flagg, I hope you don't think you have to defend your Bylsma arguments to me. I see no hysteria there.

I also think a handful of people saying "I'm not going to pass judgment on Bylsma with this lineup" hardly qualifies as hysteria either.

[Randall Flagg]

ROR has been hurt since training camp and our worst performances, to me at least, have been the ones where he hasn't played.

I think our record reflects that.

 

Flagg, I hope you don't think you have to defend your Bylsma arguments to me. I see no hysteria there.

I also think a handful of people saying "I'm not going to pass judgment on Bylsma with this lineup" hardly qualifies as hysteria either.

HIs scoring rate isn't any different than usual, though, is it? something like 8 points in 12 games? I don't think his injury has much to do with our scoring woes. I agree that he's looked not-right even when he's played (and I still angrily remember that preseason game). 

 

I agree that that isn't hysteria, though the judgement comes from 82% of his Sabres games coached (last season) as much as it does the most recent 18%. (I'm glad I picked today to do those percentages! Can't get any easier than that!) There have been fly-by comments that I'd qualify as the not-anti-Bylsma side's "hysteria", certainly not by you.