GDT: Sabres at Wild, Nov. 1, 2016, 8:00 pm

[Doohicksie]

As it should be now, IMO.

 

So you like kissing your sister?

[K-9]

I'm still marveling at the hustle play that Bailey made to beat the defender to the puck and avoid an icing call. Won't show up on any stat sheet, but that play gave us a line change and took another 40 seconds or so off the clock. That's huge at that juncture in a game like that. 

 

I'm glad Bailey was pissed about being sent down. I hope he stays made enough to make an impression and stick. He's got a lot of Kane in his game. 

[pi2000]

I'm still marveling at the hustle play that Bailey made to beat the defender to the puck and avoid an icing call. Won't show up on any stat sheet, but that play gave us a line change and took another 40 seconds or so off the clock. That's huge at that juncture in a game like that.

Deslauriers doesn't make that play.

 

The Sabres are noticeably a faster team with Bailey and Baptiste, especially on the forcheck... what goes unnoticed is the speed on the back check. Back pressure in the neutral zone allows the D to step up and challenge before the play enters too deep in the zone.

 

My impression was that the goal was a direct result of Sabres applying forward pressure up ice instead of dropping back into coverage, resulting in a goal on the rush by Minnesota. Both forwards were pushing the play on the Minnesota side of center just prior to the goal. I thought it was odd, almost arrogant. Then the Wild broke that containment and scored before the forwards got back into D-zone coverage.

True.

 

However, Lehner needs to contain the rebound or at least don't put it directly in front of the net.

[Randall Flagg]

I would argue that we don't win this game if Des had played. 

I hate doing that, because he's a great guy. But when he plays, our fourth line gets shellacked. 

In this game, the fourth line wasn't a free pass for Minnesota to do whatever they wanted. It gave our goalies and defensemen a break, instead of adding to their strain. They ate clock and they pushed the play into the Minny end and put the guys coming onto the ice after them in a good spot. There was never a string of barely-surviving shifts of Minnesota domination like we usually see from our fourth line.

 

That was just enough to keep them at bay and get a lucky goal, IMO. 
 

I realize there's a lot of projection and little evidence here. It's just a gut feeling of mine, and may very well be silly and wrong and not even worth saying.

[That Aud Smell]

I would argue that we don't win this game if Des had played. 

 

I hate doing that, because he's a great guy. But when he plays, our fourth line gets shellacked. 

 

I agree - it's true. I think part of the reason that there's a perception that D-Lo plays good defense is because, when he's on the ice, he (and his line mates) are without the puck an inordinate amount of time. So he's often flying around with his hair on fire in an effort to thwart the opposing team's opportunities. That's perceived as good defense. I'd argue that it's an under-skilled player making an honest effort to make up for his shortcomings.

 

And it's maybe similar to that unpleasant distinction of leading the league in hits: If you have the puck more often than not, you're probably not hitting people as much as other teams.

Edited November 3, 2016 by That Aud Smell

[SabresBaltimore]

And it's maybe similar to that unpleasant distinction of leading the league in hits: If you have the puck more often than not, you're probably not hitting people as much as other teams.

 

Unless you're Alex Ovechkin.

[Doohicksie]

I realize there's a lot of projection and little evidence here. It's just a gut feeling of mine, and may very well be silly and wrong and not even worth saying.

 

That's okay, that's how I do my analytics too.

[TrueBlueGED]

I agree - it's true. I think part of the reason that there's a perception that D-Lo plays good defense is because, when he's on the ice, he (and his line mates) are without the puck an inordinate amount of time. So he's often flying around with his hair on fire in an effort to thwart the opposing team's opportunities. That's perceived as good defense. I'd argue that it's an under-skilled player making an honest effort to make up for his shortcomings.

 

And it's maybe similar to that unpleasant distinction of leading the league in hits: If you have the puck more often than not, you're probably not hitting people as much as other teams.

I think one of the most common mistakes people (very much including myself) make is confusing high effort defense with high quality defense. Absolutely the case for Des. Positionally, he's a disaster.

[That Aud Smell]

Unless you're Alex Ovechkin.

 

Fair enough. Or Backes. Or Lucic. On that point, I was talking more in terms of overall team numbers. Teams that register lots of hits are often chasing the play.

I think one of the most common mistakes people (very much including myself) make is confusing high effort defense with high quality defense. Absolutely the case for Des. Positionally, he's a disaster.

 

Also a reason that a guy like Pysyk was/is probably under-appreciated.

[SabresBaltimore]

Fair enough. Or Backes. Or Lucic. On that point, I was talking more in terms of overall team numbers. Teams that register lots of hits are often chasing the play.

 

Also a reason that a guy like Pysyk was/is probably under-appreciated.

 

Yeah. I think Ovechkin is more of an exception than the rule. Lucic puts up the hits, but no where close to the points.

 

I think the point about hitting does tend to reflect a team with lower puck possession. Back in the Drury/Briere days we didn't hit a lot, but we controlled the play a lot. The last few years we've been hitting more often, but that hasn't exactly turned into wins.. (http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=realtime&teamId=7&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20062007&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=seasonId)

 

Then again, just looking at stats from the last decade or so, it's a bit of a mixed bag. You've got good teams like LA or the Pens in there but you also have the Leafs and Blue Jackets: http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20062007&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=hits

[That Aud Smell]

Then again, just looking at stats from the last decade or so, it's a bit of a mixed bag. You've got good teams like LA or the Pens in there but you also have the Leafs and Blue Jackets: http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20062007&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=hits

 

Hmm. Interesting. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

That's okay, that's how I do my analytics too.

 

The kid is catching on.  I like that.