The System

[That Aud Smell]

I didn't see any of the game last night (for which I am grateful), but I very much appreciate this analysis. 

 

I'm going to do what I can to discern what's going on. I'm unqualified to do it, but I am an observant person.

 

And, yes, I miss X. Could use that guy around here right about now.

[Samson's Flow]

Thanks d4rk.

 

Yeah, from what I see these guys know what to do in the zone. I think getting there is 100% the problem. 

From my observations the problem with the zone entries is that the forwards get too far up in the neutral zone (almost to the opponents blue line) when we get possession. So the defenseman with the puck is at our faceoff circle/our blue line and has to make a long pass to our stationary forwards. The only play the forwards have is to deflect it into the zone, which is then easily cleared because we have no momentum to put pressure on the puck retriever. This strategy is especially problematic since I think our defense is one of the poorest outlet passing groups in the league - they just don't have that skillset.

 

I'd much rather see us employ a "Barcelona Soccer" style passing game and transition where we use a lot of high %age short passes to create different angles and have all players coming into the opponents zone with speed as a unit. IMO we would be far more effective utilizing triangle passing concepts and wall passes (give and go) to maintain possession and force the opposing D to back off the blue line. Right now they can stand us up at the blue line without fear because we have no momentum (or team speed) to blow past them.

Offensively, we seem to avoid the slot like the plague. We never pass into it, we just try to pass through it.

When we do gain possession in the offensive zone, we seem to do a lot of cycling below the opponents goal line and then go low to high and pass to the point men. There doesn't appear to be a concerted effort or set plays to get movement and chances in the high percentage scoring areas.

[That Aud Smell]

^

 

More good stuff.

[Randall Flagg]

From my observations the problem with the zone entries is that the forwards get too far up in the neutral zone (almost to the opponents blue line) when we get possession. So the defenseman with the puck is at our faceoff circle/our blue line and has to make a long pass to our stationary forwards. The only play the forwards have is to deflect it into the zone, which is then easily cleared because we have no momentum to put pressure on the puck retriever. This strategy is especially problematic since I think our defense is one of the poorest outlet passing groups in the league - they just don't have that skillset.

 

I'd much rather see us employ a "Barcelona Soccer" style passing game and transition where we use a lot of high %age short passes to create different angles and have all players coming into the opponents zone with speed as a unit. IMO we would be far more effective utilizing triangle passing concepts and wall passes (give and go) to maintain possession and force the opposing D to back off the blue line. Right now they can stand us up at the blue line without fear because we have no momentum (or team speed) to blow past them.

 

When we do gain possession in the offensive zone, we seem to do a lot of cycling below the opponents goal line and then go low to high and pass to the point men. There doesn't appear to be a concerted effort or set plays to get movement and chances in the high percentage scoring areas.

Good points. It seems that Bylsma forces the forwards to do that and likes the stretch pass - that's his "fast hockey". It's true that the puck goes from behind the goal line to being chipped into the corner faster than anyone could carry it, but I don't think it's a particularly effective brand of "fast".

[Samson's Flow]

Good points. It seems that Bylsma forces the forwards to do that and likes the stretch pass - that's his "fast hockey". It's true that the puck goes from behind the goal line to being chipped into the corner faster than anyone could carry it, but I don't think it's a particularly effective brand of "fast".

Since it's also a fast way for the puck to be retrieved and then subsequently cleared by the opponent. It's certainly end to end but it's why we get killed in the possession metrics.

[inkman]

From my observations the problem with the zone entries is that the forwards get too far up in the neutral zone (almost to the opponents blue line) when we get possession. So the defenseman with the puck is at our faceoff circle/our blue line and has to make a long pass to our stationary forwards.

They aren't getting too far up in the zone, they are going precisely where they are being told to go.

[SwampD]

I really think y'alls is crazy.

 

 

Dan Bylsma will be fine.

 

 

Whatever you thought you saw on one play happens in every game by every team. I finally watched last nights game expecting a shnizshow. All I saw was hockey. NHL hockey. The difference was that I saw about a thousand passes by the Sabres that didn't connect and a hundred shots that just didn't go in (I know it wasn't a hundred, but we almost doubled them in shots.)

 

The system is fine. We still have a a little too many not quite skilled enough guys on the ice.

[Randall Flagg]

It's cool to disagree.

 

But we aren't basing our beliefs on one play, the one I described just was a perfect example. If I tried to do that every time I saw something it would take hours and a dvr, and I have other stuff to do and no dvr.

 

I watch loads of other teams play hockey, I see every NHL team play at least 3 and up to ~12 games that don't include the Sabres, and draw these Bylsma opinions from these and the 90 games he's had here and dozens I saw in Pittsburgh, not one play last night.

 

I hope you're right that he's not the problem, but to my eyes it's plain as day what the problem is. I hope my eyes are wrong and they certainly might be.

[TrueBlueGED]

I really think y'alls is crazy.

 

 

Dan Bylsma will be fine.

 

 

Whatever you thought you saw on one play happens in every game by every team. I finally watched last nights game expecting a shnizshow. All I saw was hockey. NHL hockey. The difference was that I saw about a thousand passes by the Sabres that didn't connect and a hundred shots that just didn't go in (I know it wasn't a hundred, but we almost doubled them in shots.)

 

The system is fine. We still have a a little too many not quite skilled enough guys on the ice.

What myself and others are trying to say is those outcomes aren't independent of Bylsma's system, but rather occur because of it. On the passing front, the reliance on hail mary stretch passes for breakouts and movement through the neutral zone causes our players to force a bunch of low percentage stuff that of course isn't going to connect regularly. I missed yesterday's game, but from what everyone has said, there was a focus on carrying the puck through the neutral zone as a team with shorter, higher percentage passes. Lo and behold, the teams ended up even in possession.

[SwampD]

What myself and others are trying to say is those outcomes aren't independent of Bylsma's system, but rather occur because of it. On the passing front, the reliance on hail mary stretch passes for breakouts and movement through the neutral zone causes our players to force a bunch of low percentage stuff that of course isn't going to connect regularly. I missed yesterday's game, but from what everyone has said, there was a focus on carrying the puck through the neutral zone as a team with shorter, higher percentage passes. Lo and behold, the teams ended up even in possession.

I wasn't talking about long stretch passes. Watch the Mini game again. There were countless 5 to10 ft passes in the neutral zone that just jumped over the stick or bounced off the tape. It was the same system as the game before, they just did it better.

Edited October 30, 2016 by SwampD

[Randall Flagg]

I wasn't talking about long stretch passes. Watch the Mini game again. There were countless 5 to10 ft passes in the neutral zone that just jumped over the stick or bounced off the tape. It was the same system as the game before, they just did it better.

This isn't true. There was a huge decrease in the amount of stretch pass chip ins. I counted 8 in the second period of the Wild game, and there were fewer than that against Florida the whole time.

 

The structure of the game was clearly different. 

[dudacek]

Not sure what the right thread is for this, but I suppose this is as good as any.

 

The consensus of this board is that our defence corps sucks.

Haven't seen a lot of people who are all in on Robin Lehner.

And there aren't many fans of Bylsma's system.

 

Putting aside the 4-0 stinker against Minny, we've allowed four even strength goals in our past seven games.

How?

[Taro T]

Not sure what the right thread is for this, but I suppose this is as good as any.

The consensus of this board is that our defence corps sucks.

Haven't seen a lot of people who are all in on Robin Lehner.

And there aren't many fans of Bylsma's system.

Putting aside the 4-0 stinker against Minny, we've allowed four even strength goals in our past seven games.

How?

You sure about that?

 

The consensus seems to be that the D IS NHL caliber but is painfully thin. (4 guys worthy of top 4 status on most teams, though 1 of them is FAR too injury prone to be relied on, and then a solid 3rd pairing guy & a couple of borderline 3rd pairing guys; a big problem being the solid 3rd pairing guy plays on the top pairing. Another problem being the injury prone guy is out injured AGAIN.)

 

How have they been getting it done?

 

Lehner is demonstrating he was worth the #1 pick, though he may not be the LT answer between the pipes. (He might be, but the rebound control leaves that a question open for discussion.) I've leaned towards him being an at minimum midterm answer to who should be the #1 guy, but haven't been sold yet on LT. Hope hebis, though.

 

The D can be NHL caliber, but w/ Bogosian out we could quite possibly see them wear down as at least 12 of his minutes have to get eaten up by the other 5 guys that were regulars (& really, get eaten up by the other 3 true top 4 guys).

 

Most of the criticism of Bylsma's system has been offensive related (zone entry); that won't manifest itself at 5v5 defensively as much as 5v5 offensively.

 

They haven't exactly faced a murderers row of opponents yet this year. Let's see how they fare vs the Chicago's of this league.

 

And w/ all that stated, they're sitting where they need to be while waiting for Eichel to come back. Hopefully they can keep it up, but November will be much more challenging than October was.

[dudacek]

You sure about that?

The consensus seems to be that the D IS NHL caliber but is painfully thin. (4 guys worthy of top 4 status on most teams, though 1 of them is FAR too injury prone to be relied on, and then a solid 3rd pairing guy & a couple of borderline 3rd pairing guys; a big problem being the solid 3rd pairing guy plays on the top pairing. Another problem being the injury prone guy is out injured AGAIN.).

That's your opinion and my opinion, but I'm not sure it's the board consensus.

What I read about is how bad Gorges and Franson are, how people like Risto and McCabe, but how they aren't as good as they will be and they need to be, and how people are hopping in and out of the Bogo bunker.

 

I generally agree with your analysis, but even including Minny, that's 8 even strength goal against in the past 8 games.

Pretty impressive stretch that doesn't seem to be getting much attention. Somebody must be doing something right defensively.

Edited November 6, 2016 by dudacek

[Thorner]

Our D is looking good for a number of reasons. One is that Ristolainen and McCabe are studs. McCabe's apparent emergence this year is making me downright giddy, as he seems to be realizing the potential he always had, and that really ups the quality of our D corps. When you add in Kulikov, who's been very good, and capable of top pair minutes, we suddenly have the left side of our top 4 figured out. It's a very pleasant development. With Ristolainen, now we nearly have our top 4.

 

I'm firmly in the Bogo bunker and expect to remain there, as his injury prone-ness is the thing preventing the solidifying of our top 4. He was pretty good before getting hurt, and will be pretty good when he comes back. But he's pretty much guaranteed to miss a big chunk of the season every year, and that's not a viable option in my view. I'm not really worried about the bottom pair going forward, as I think those positions are easier to fill and we have some options in the system.

 

Credit Bylsma as well, his system is producing very good defensive results.

 

Lehner absolutely is the answer LT in goal, in my view, and the question of whether he was worth a draft pick, be it a first rounder, has been wholly answered.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

Great thread, and great to see dudacek back!

 

My 2 cents:

 

- I think we are seeing a bit more carrying it in vs d-and-c or c-and-c than we saw earlier in the year -- probably because the forwards are getting used to each other after late injury-driven line reshuffling. 

 

- I also think some guys (like Moulson) are not cut out for the carry-in.  I've seen ROR carry it in quite a bit lately, and do it quite well.

 

- There are still a few times each game where the forward seems to have room to carry it in but instead opts for the d-and-c -- and I immediately picture Sabrespacers yelling at the TV and DDB.

 

- The D overall has been very sound, although Lehner saved their bacon a number of times vs Ottawa.

 

- Regarding the D system -- I've noticed quite a bit of strong 2-man play by the D pairings -- e.g. the puck will enter the zone, the nearest defenceman will take the man, and the other defenseman will scoop up the puck with good timing.  It looks like good coaching to me.

 

- I thought we would get a solid year from Franson and so far that is what's happening. 

 

- Kulikov has been a huge upgrade over Pysyk. 

 

- Nelson isn't as good as Pysyk yet but there is a reasonably chance he'll get there by the end of this year.  His instincts in the offensive zone are better than Pysyk's. 

 

- Lehner got off to a slow start but has played very, very well since returning from the flu (maybe he had it prior to sitting out those games, and it hurt his play?).  It's a bit early to anoint him as the franchise guy for the foreseeable future, and he still deposits way too many rebounds in the slot, but there is certainly reason for optimism.

[inkman]

Mike Schopp would fight you for your slandering of Mark Pysyk in you diatribe Nfreeman. Ok, so he might challenge you to a heated game of tennis. Lookout!

[TrueBlueGED]

Not sure what the right thread is for this, but I suppose this is as good as any.

 

The consensus of this board is that our defence corps sucks.

Haven't seen a lot of people who are all in on Robin Lehner.

And there aren't many fans of Bylsma's system.

 

Putting aside the 4-0 stinker against Minny, we've allowed four even strength goals in our past seven games.

How?

 

PDO. Save percentages the last 5 games: 100, 97, 96, 93, 97. That's not going to continue, unless you think Lehner and Nilsson are far and away the greatest goaltending tandem to ever step foot on this planet. 

 

Ultimately I think Bylsma's whole approach is to limit opportunities against, and he's willing to sacrifice opportunities for in order to achieve it (the numbers play this out as we're a middling shot-suppression team, and a terrible shot-generation team). Single forechecker, little activation of the defensemen. The important question is why he's taking this approach. I floated a theory last year that lack of faith in the blue line was a factor in him playing so conservative with the forecheck. Maybe that's it, or maybe he legitimately believes this is how you win. Or something else. Though I think it's the wrong approach as a whole, I do think a consequence is that goals against tend to be quite low.

[That Aud Smell]

PDO. Save percentages the last 5 games: 100, 97, 96, 93, 97. That's not going to continue

 

Ahhh, goddammit.

[jsb]

(1) Ultimately I think Bylsma's whole approach is to limit opportunities against, and he's willing to sacrifice opportunities for in order to achieve it (the numbers play this out as we're a middling shot-suppression team, and a terrible shot-generation team).

 

(2) Single forechecker, little activation of the defensemen. The important question is why he's taking this approach. I floated a theory last year that lack of faith in the blue line was a factor in him playing so conservative with the forecheck. Maybe that's it, or maybe he legitimately believes this is how you win.

 

(3) Or something else. Though I think it's the wrong approach as a whole, I do think a consequence is that goals against tend to be quite low.

(1) Maybe because we have 2 of our top 4 goal scorers from last year out of the lineup??? Not sure where we are there in bolded but we are 4th in the league in GA/GP

 

(2) Maybe with a dearth of goalscoring forwards on the club presently he does think that's the way to win. 2013-2015 seasons we had a total of 106 points. He took over that squad and since the last 1/2 of last season and so far this year he's turned this squad around to a record of 25-18-9. 59 points in 52 games for a season progression of 93 points. A terrific turn around.

 

(3) Maybe just maybe, it's because he knows what he's doing??

[Randall Flagg]

The trap team just blew my mind with its ability to create plays and chances. 

 

Dan thinks we have to hang on and grind down to eek out points while a 56 point player is injured. Well, we're DeLuca .333 right now. I don't think it's going to kill anyone to try taking some more chances.

Activate defensemen. Send the weak side defensemen creeping down the wall/into the slot for a chance. The strong D-man can help with the cycle. Get guys into the middle. Make passes that don't spend 50% of their duration riding the boards. Don't play a 1-1-3 forechecking system. I like that we stopped the stretch passing, and I like that neutral-zone passes came out of nowhere after the first seven games, but there aren't enough of them. Whatever the NJ was doing to get into our zone, figure out how to do it. Injuries are not a valid excuse for not doing so. These guys are professional hockey players. Have some trust in their abilities. I just watched guys that none of us have ever heard of pick us apart for more grade-A chances than we've seen our team generate in November doing exactly this. Figure out how to do it. But oh no, there might be some odd man rushes against! We might give up goals and lose! As if it's any different than what we're doing now, which entails tank-level offense and equal entertainment value.

 

Systems and schemes are so much more important than I ever thought they were coming into Bylsma's coaching tenure. 

[TrueBlueGED]

The trap team just blew my mind with its ability to create plays and chances. 

 

Dan thinks we have to hang on and grind down to eek out points while a 56 point player is injured. Well, we're DeLuca .333 right now. I don't think it's going to kill anyone to try taking some more chances.

 

Activate defensemen. Send the weak side defensemen creeping down the wall/into the slot for a chance. The strong D-man can help with the cycle. Get guys into the middle. Make passes that don't spend 50% of their duration riding the boards. Don't play a 1-1-3 forechecking system. I like that we stopped the stretch passing, and I like that neutral-zone passes came out of nowhere after the first seven games, but there aren't enough of them. Whatever the ###### NJ was doing to get into our zone, figure out how to do it. Injuries are not a valid excuse for not doing so. These guys are professional hockey players. Have some trust in their abilities. I just watched guys that none of us have ever heard of pick us apart for more grade-A chances than we've seen our team generate in November doing exactly this. Figure out how to do it. But oh no, there might be some odd man rushes against! We might give up goals and lose! As if it's any different than what we're doing now, which entails tank-level offense and equal entertainment value.

 

Systems and schemes are so much more important than I ever thought they were coming into Bylsma's coaching tenure. 

 

Angry Flagg is fun Flagg. Don't worry, we'll have a big group hug at the Leafs game in spring.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Is his system to keep his job....

 

Because it may not be working

[Neo]

I wasn't sure where to post this. It's a response to posts in many threads.

 

Flagg - you are an informed poster who possesses the ability to communicate what you see on the ice. You are generous with your time and effort. I'm grateful for your insight and gifts. :). There, I used those words again!

 

Now, there are others. There are many others! I come here for you all.

 

To the learned!

[Jacque Richard]

Losing faith in the Buffalo sports teams. I thought Dan B would have the Sabres flying and scoring. Far from a playoff team