2017 NHL Draft -- General NHL Thread

[pi2000]

Here are a couple of possibe 2nd round options in case the Sabres do take a forward at 8.

 

1) Henri Jokiharju - plays for Portland in the WHL. He is a puckmover and was one of the top dmen for the winter hawks once he adjusted to the smaller NA rinks

 

http://www.dubnetwork.ca/interviews/nhl-draft-profiles/2016-17-nhl-draft-profiles-henri-jokiharju/

 

2) Erik Brannstrom - Swedish dman who plays in the SHL for HV71. Very smart player with elite offensive abilities but is undersized at 5'10. Could go in first round but size may see him slip into the 2nd

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/erik-brannstrom-2017-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

 

With 2 seconds and 2 thirds, BUF has ammo to trade back up into the first and grab somebody like Callan Foote or Urho Vaakanainen  in the bottom half of the 1st.

[kas23]

Definitely not belonging in the Absurd Concepts thread, I would like to however nominate "mortgage the future" as an overused concept. Randall's post to me boils down to the fact that there is no guaranteed "future", as things stand. Can't mortgage a future that you don't know exists. There's no guarantee a draft pick is this future.

 

You can trade a pick for a young roster player, and not necessarily be mortgaging the future.

True. But if you trade a pick away, you immediately guarantee there will be no future for that would've been pick. I know, the draft is a crapshoot, but 100% of people who don't buy a lottery ticket lose.

 

These young, but established, players you want come at a hefty price. They've already burned through many RFA years and believe or not, their clock is ticking too. What happens in 5 years when they are either too expensive to keep or their skills have peaked? Who replaces them? Or are we going to "rebuild" again.

 

While GMTM was here, he traded away 2 1st rounder and about 5 2nd rounders. It would be irresponsible to trade another away, especially given how high it is. That would be the definition of mortgaging the future. And for what? Just so we can say we made the playoffs?

[I-90 W]

True. But if you trade a pick away, you immediately guarantee there will be no future for that would've been pick. I know, the draft is a crapshoot, but 100% of people who don't buy a lottery ticket lose.

 

These young, but established, players you want come at a hefty price. They've already burned through many RFA years and believe or not, their clock is ticking too. What happens in 5 years when they are either too expensive to keep or their skills have peaked? Who replaces them? Or are we going to "rebuild" again.

 

While GMTM was here, he traded away 2 1st rounder and about 5 2nd rounders. It would be irresponsible to trade another away, especially given how high it is. That would be the definition of mortgaging the future. And for what? Just so we can say we made the playoffs?

If we can package our #8 into a trade for an NHL ready dman in his early twenties, I see no reason not to. The alternate is to draft at #8, and then slow cook in Rochester for two or three years. Trading it for a dman presses the fast forward button.

 

Unless you're thinking BPA, which is an entire different scenario. In that case I don't see us significantly improving our blue line without trading an essential piece because it isn't happening in free agency.

[Weave]

For all of the trading of picks that Murray is fingered for, we've had a 1st and 2nd round pick every year he was here.  And plenty of mid to late round picks as well.  This wasn't like Darcy moving 2nd round picks for playoff busts nealry every season.  There was no mortgaging of the future to make this roster. 

[qwksndmonster]

For all of the trading of picks that Murray is fingered for, we've had a 1st and 2nd round pick every year he was here. And plenty of mid to late round picks as well. This wasn't like Darcy moving 2nd round picks for playoff busts nealry every season. There was no mortgaging of the future to make this roster.

But! But! JT Compher! Grigorenko!!! Armia!!!!

[I-90 W]

But! But! JT Compher! Grigorenko!!! Armia!!!!

I know right. Honestly TM made some darn good moves, too bad he picked DB as his hill to die on. Other than that he was a good GM imo.

[qwksndmonster]

I know right. Honestly TM made some darn good moves, too bad he picked DB as his hill to die on. Other than that he was a good GM imo.

You must have forgotten about the late first Murray gave up for Lehner.

 

My goodness. Just a disgrace. This is the team I'm supposed to indoctrinate my eventual offspring for? A 21st overall pick for Robin Lehner? Disgraceful. Overpayment.

[I-90 W]

You must have forgotten about the late first Murray gave up for Lehner.

 

My goodness. Just a disgrace. This is the team I'm supposed to indoctrinate my eventual offspring for? A 21st overall pick for Robin ###### Lehner? Disgraceful. Overpayment.

Lol. I remember so many people thinking that not sure if people still say that now. Wouldn't surprise me if they still do haha.

[Scottysabres]

Lol. I remember so many people thinking that not sure if people still say that now. Wouldn't surprise me if they still do haha.

Oh, many of us do.

He's weak on the posts, shows flashes of a decent netminder but no consistency to really speak of.

Was he worth the 21st pick OA? Absolutely not.

[I-90 W]

Oh, many of us do.

He's weak on the posts, shows flashes of a decent netminder but no consistency to really speak of.

Was he worth the 21st pick OA? Absolutely not.

If he wasn't getting shelled 34 shots every game I suspect his consistency would be apparent.

[ct fab]

Check out his stats, they say otherwise. You could do a lot worse than lehner. Watch some if the goals god-like king Henry gives up

[Scottysabres]

If he wasn't getting shelled 34 shots every game I suspect his consistency would be apparent.

  

 

He gave up goals in a couple of key situations. You can fault the GM for not addressing the D. You can fault the coaches strategy failures. But the shared responsibility also falls on the players. They blew some critical games with leads going in to the 3rd. Killing momentum and deflating team confidence and it showed.

You would think a netminder at Lehners age which wad just traded for with the 21st OA pick in one of the deepest draft classes I've seen in 12 years would steal a couple of those games at least. Thereby continuing momentum and boosting confidence.

That is not the case. So when you ask or bring up was Leaner worth the 21st OA pick in that draft class, common sense would tell you no.

 

Check out his stats, they say otherwise. You could do a lot worse than lehner. Watch some if the goals god-like king Henry gives up

No one is implying Lehner isn't an NHL netminder. What is being said is he wasn't worth what we gave up to get him.

Comparing him to Lunny, a netminder who has proven his worth by stealing games when he was Lehners age isn't necessarily accurate given the mileage on the King and what he has done in his career.

[I-90 W]

 

 

He gave up goals in a couple of key situations. You can fault the GM for not addressing the D. You can fault the coaches strategy failures. But the shared responsibility also falls on the players. They blew some critical games with leads going in to the 3rd. Killing momentum and deflating team confidence and it showed.

You would think a netminder at Lehners age which wad just traded for with the 21st OA pick in one of the deepest draft classes I've seen in 12 years would steal a couple of those games at least. Thereby continuing momentum and boosting confidence.

That is not the case. So when you ask or bring up was Leaner worth the 21st OA pick in that draft class, common sense would tell you no.

 

 

No one is implying Lehner isn't an NHL netminder. What is being said is he wasn't worth what we gave up to get him.

Comparing him to Lunny, a netminder who has proven his worth by stealing games when he was Lehners age isn't necessarily accurate given the mileage on the King and what he has done in his career.

I seriously can't even.

[qwksndmonster]

lol

[dudacek]

While GMTM was here, he traded away 2 1st rounder and about 5 2nd rounders. It would be irresponsible to trade another away, especially given how high it is. That would be the definition of mortgaging the future. And for what? Just so we can say we made the playoffs?

While Murray was here he traded away:

2 1sts, 5 2nds and 4 3rds.

 

He also acquired

1 1st, 4 2nds and 5 3rds.

 

Only Phoenix (14) and Tampa (13) had more picks in the first three rounds than Buffalo (12) and just Tampa and Toronto (26) had more picks overall than Buffalo's 25.

 

But narrative.

Edited May 10, 2017 by dudacek

[bunomatic]

While Murray was here he traded away:

2 1sts, 5 2nds and 4 3rds.

 

He also acquired

1 1st, 4 2nds and 5 3rds.

 

Only Phoenix (14) and Tampa (13) had more picks in the first three rounds than Buffalo (12) and just Tampa and Toronto (26) had more picks overall than Buffalo's 25.

 

But narrative.

Yup. Nice post.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yup. Nice post.

And now the rest of the story.  

 

He also traded away high picks from the prior administration including 1st rd picks Armia, Pysyk, Zadorov, Grigorenko, and high 2nd rd picks Lemieux (a Murray pick) and Compher.  We can argue about the merits of these players vs the players acquired in those trades, but that doesn't change the fact that these trades help limit our talent pipeline.  The stats also ignore that the 2 1st and one of the 2nds (31st overall) traded were from the deep 2015 class and cost us an opportunity to draft guys like Carlo, Aho, Jacob Larsson. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

In a rebuild is it not very common to acquire draft picks in order to turn them either into players directly and / or trade assets to get other players.

 

I don't think it is fair to be critical of Murray for doing that.  He was not fired for lack of effort in building this team.  It was for other reasons, eh?

[I-90 W]

And now the rest of the story.

 

He also traded away high picks from the prior administration including 1st rd picks Armia, Pysyk, Zadorov, Grigorenko, and high 2nd rd picks Lemieux (a Murray pick) and Compher. We can argue about the merits of these players vs the players acquired in those trades, but that doesn't change the fact that these trades help limit our talent pipeline. The stats also ignore that the 2 1st and one of the 2nds (31st overall) traded were from the deep 2015 class and cost us an opportunity to draft guys like Carlo, Aho, Jacob Larsson.

Um, you do realize that Brandon Lemieux refused to sign with us right? The fact that TM was able to package that as part of our Winnepeg trade is to his credit. TM brought us in some quality pieces, there is no denying that. As far as what we gave up, we had a tons of picks stocked up and he spent some of them, which was the plan all along. You can only have so many picks.

[Taro T]

And now the rest of the story.

 

He also traded away high picks from the prior administration including 1st rd picks Armia, Pysyk, Zadorov, Grigorenko, and high 2nd rd picks Lemieux (a Murray pick) and Compher. We can argue about the merits of these players vs the players acquired in those trades, but that doesn't change the fact that these trades help limit our talent pipeline. The stats also ignore that the 2 1st and one of the 2nds (31st overall) traded were from the deep 2015 class and cost us an opportunity to draft guys like Carlo, Aho, Jacob Larsson.

 

And those "high picks from the prior administration" were traded away for established NHLers that had also been "high picks from other administrations" including a #2, #3, #4, #33, & #36 overall. We can argue the merits of those trades but that doesn't change the fact those trades moved talent from the pipeline into the MMarena.

 

[Edit: Thanks to EichSnipe for catching the original post's omission of a #2 overall. :) ]

Edited May 10, 2017 by Taro T

[Winston]

And those "high picks from the prior administration" were traded away for established NHLers that had also been "high picks from other administrations" including a #3, #4, #33, & #36 overall. We can argue the merits of those trades but that doesn't change the fact those trades moved talent from the pipeline into the MMarena.

Don't forget about David Legwand, a #2 overall selection ;)

[Taro T]

Don't forget about David Legwand, a #2 overall selection ;)

Knew there was someone missing. Thanks! :beer:

[Derrico]

For all of the trading of picks that Murray is fingered for, we've had a 1st and 2nd round pick every year he was here.  And plenty of mid to late round picks as well.  This wasn't like Darcy moving 2nd round picks for playoff busts nealry every season.  There was no mortgaging of the future to make this roster. 

This isn't an accomplishment.  We had scorched the earth.  Traded almost every breathing asset for draft picks to get near the bottom.  Ofcourse he made every 1st and 2nd round pick because we had like 6 of each every year.  He still traded a bunch of those away.  For the record I'm a big supporter of the trades Murray made but I'm not giving him credit for having a 1st and 2nd round pick to make the years he was here. 

[Taro T]

For all of the trading of picks that Murray is fingered for, we've had a 1st and 2nd round pick every year he was here.  And plenty of mid to late round picks as well.  This wasn't like Darcy moving 2nd round picks for playoff busts nealry every season.  There was no mortgaging of the future to make this roster.

 

  

This isn't an accomplishment.  We had scorched the earth.  Traded almost every breathing asset for draft picks to get near the bottom.  Ofcourse he made every 1st and 2nd round pick because we had like 6 of each every year.  He still traded a bunch of those away.  For the record I'm a big supporter of the trades Murray made but I'm not giving him credit for having a 1st and 2nd round pick to make the years he was here.

 

He did trade a bunch of those away. To further support using those assets for NHL-ready assets, when you can only have 50 players under contract, is it realistic to expect him to leave the NHL cupboard bare to have ~10 extra 19-21 YO's setting the Amerks up to potentially be studs?

 

It will be argued whether the right assets were brought in &/or whether there was overpayment. But there was no way ANY GM wasn't going to trade a lot of those picks. He still kept the normal quantities of prospects moving in each season & upgraded the NHL roster. Isn't that usually a/the goal when rebuilding.

 

Too bad he stuck to/with Bylsma. He'd likely have gotten at least 1 more kick at the can.

[rakish]

My yearly draft contest is back, rechristened Mom's Basement Stakes, though there are no stakes. You need to create a draft board deep enough for the whole draft. We then figure out who you would have taken for the Sabres' draft, and see how that turns out.

 

How many do you need on your board? Bob McKenzie will run out of picks, and he has a list of 75, if I remember correctly. I tried 22 last year, and ran at least 2 short, but my picks are less mainstream than Bob's. So it depends.

 

A short recap of prior years:

 

The 2014 draft, Craig Button had a big year in 2016, with Reinhart, Ondrej Kase, Brayden Point, Emil Johansson, Vlad Kamenev. My Reinhart, Brayden Point, Barbashev team was crippled with the injury to Axel Holmstrom. The Hockey News' Barbashev also relied on Holmstrom, and whose team is fading with Sam Bennett's career. Tim Murray's selections may have move into 3rd place, as Reinhart ranks above Barbashev.

 

In 2015 we move to Winnipeg because everyone would take Eichel, then there would be no selections for a couple rounds, so I found a team with better selections. Winnipeg kicked all of our butts. Kyle Connor, Roslovic, and Niku all had good years according to my computations. Pronman is in second with Aho the Swede, Kylington, Konecny, and Tkachev all having good years in 2016-2017.  The other 4 of us are pretty much together in last place, me, with Andersson, and Bob McKenzie, Button, and the Hockey News with Kyle Connor.

 

In 2016 we are back to Buffalo. I am well out in front with Chychrun, Bernhardt, Shvyryov, and Zile. Tim Murray is probably second with Pu and Asplund having good years. Hockey News has Pu and Debrincat. Pronman has Aho the Swede(again) and Debrincat. Button has Quenville and Debrincat. Bob McKenzie has no one with a top 20 season among his peers. In the first round Bob chose Nylander, who will have better years.

 

2017 is very interesting. Looking at Liger's mock, 4 out of the 5 best prospects, according to my model, might be on the board when Buffalo picks at 8 or 9, I forget which. Looking at the past 12 years will give some context as to the strength (or not) of this draft. Among forwards, Pettersson had the best 2016, and ranks 27th over those 12 years, so for me, he's a standard number 3 pick. Vilardi's 2016 ranks him at 45th over those 12 years, so he's a standard 4th or 5th overall pick. Liljegren ranks 14th among defensemen over the 12 years, so he's a standard number 2 or number 3 pick. I'll post my board for Mom's Basement Stakes before the draft.

 

I put up 2 new apps.

 

One is a development app that allows you to compare drafted (and a few undrafted, but not many) players over the past 12 years. So if you want to compare say Eichel to Matthews, you can use this link, and see that Matthews 2016 season falls directly on top of Eichel's regression line.

 

The second is a linemates app, so you can see, say, Eichel's results with each linemate. For me, the correct answer last year was Okposo, which really shouldn't be a surprise. I also have an explanation post that walks you through using the linemates page, it's a bit difficult to use. All of this can be found at 45b.us

 

Other Sabres' things of note.

For 2016, I have Eichel ranked 5th among forwards, but Crosby is the oldest in my data, so players like OV and Malken aren't considered.

Risto ranked 9th among defensemen, again, the age thing.

Pu is ranked 6th among 2016 forward draft picks

Guhle ranks 13th among his defending draft class

Edited May 10, 2017 by rakish