Leafs rebuild vs Sabres rebuild: Which will be better sooner and which will be better longer?

[Doohicksie]

[dudacek]

....he had the worst group of D in the NHL...

You keep saying this like it is cold hard fact. I don't think you know what it means.

 

Severson, Moore, Greene, Lovejoy, Prout, Santini, Merrill

Barrie, Beauchemin, Johnson, Tyutin, Barberio, Weircoch, Zadorov

Klingberg, Lindell, Hamhuis, Pateryn, Johns, Oleksiak

Green, Jensen, Kronwall, Oulette, Deykeyser, Ericsson, Sproule

Stecher, Edler, Tanev, Sbisa, Hutton, Tryamakin, Larsen

Gardiner, Zaitsev, Reilly, Hunwick, Polak, Carrick

 

Lots of bad defences in this league.

[GASabresIUFAN]

..... and where are those teams other then Toronto (whose D is deeper, cheaper, healthier and more supportive of the offense then ours)?  Oh Yes, they are out of the playoffs just like us.  Bad D usually = bad team.

 

As to the Leafs vs. Sabres

Cap Cost : 16.875 vs 24.946

Goals top 8: 29 vs 17

Points top 8: 153 vs 121

Games Played by top 6: 454 vs 397 ( 392 if Kulikov in for Falk)

Ave age: 26 vs 27

 

Face it.  Toronto's D is better.

[Scottysabres]

Leafs will be better and for the better part of over a dozen years.

Lottery luck, management team, coaching staff, pipeline depth, market aattractivness, winning culture and Don Cherry.

 

Time to pony up on reality, the Leafs are going to be a force to be reckoned with for some time.

[TrueBlueGED]

..... and where are those teams other then Toronto (whose D is deeper, cheaper, healthier and more supportive of the offense then ours)?  Oh Yes, they are out of the playoffs just like us.  Bad D usually = bad team.

 

As to the Leafs vs. Sabres

Cap Cost : 16.875 vs 24.946

Goals top 8: 29 vs 17

Points top 8: 153 vs 121

Games Played by top 6: 454 vs 397 ( 392 if Kulikov in for Falk)

Ave age: 26 vs 27

 

Face it.  Toronto's D is better.

 

Ya know, since you think the Sabres have the worst D corps in the league...saying the Leafs' corps is better isn't inherently supporting your "Bylsma is fine" position ;)

[LGR4GM]

Ya know, since you think the Sabres have the worst D corps in the league...saying the Leafs' corps is better isn't inherently supporting your "Bylsma is fine" position ;)

Reinhart is fine, Bylsma sucks until he proves otherwise.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Ya know, since you think the Sabres have the worst D corps in the league...saying the Leafs' corps is better isn't inherently supporting your "Bylsma is fine" position ;)

1) I've never said DD is fine, I've always said that until he gets a real roster to coach I don't think he should be fired.

2) How does the Leafs having, a younger, cheaper, healthier and more productive D group not make their D group better? And how does that not support my argument that DD needs to better D group to coach?

[MattPie]

1) I've never said DD is fine, I've always said that until he gets a real roster to coach I don't think he should be fired.

2) How does the Leafs having, a younger, cheaper, healthier and more productive D group not make their D group better? And how does that not support my argument that DD needs to better D group to coach?

 

The argument is that the Leafs D is more productive but that's not necessarily due to talent. Several of the Sabres D have suddenly become hopeless after reasonable NHL careers thus far. Some aren't ruling out the possibility that the issue isn't that they suddenly fell off a cliff, but that they're being asked to do something they can't. I'm sure there are 6 D around that can successfully play the system, but it may be easier to take the D the Sabres have and adapt the system (through coaching change or other methods) to their skill rather than swap out the players until you find guys that can play the system.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The argument is that the Leafs D is more productive but that's not necessarily due to talent. Several of the Sabres D have suddenly become hopeless after reasonable NHL careers thus far. Some aren't ruling out the possibility that the issue isn't that they suddenly fell off a cliff, but that they're being asked to do something they can't. I'm sure there are 6 D around that can successfully play the system, but it may be easier to take the D the Sabres have and adapt the system (through coaching change or other methods) to their skill rather than swap out the players until you find guys that can play the system.

Besides Risto being better the Reilly which Sabre is a better player then their corresponding Leaf player.  

Gardiner is next, who do we have that's as good?  Bogo would be the matchup on age and experience.  Who are you taking?

How about Vaitsez vs Kulikov?  Similar age, both Russians.  In Vaitsev's rookie season he out produced Kulikov's best NHL season.  

How about physical D vs physical D?  Who is better Polak or Gorges? Polak is both cheaper and better.

 

So far we are 1 for 4.  How about Franson vs Hunwick.  Again similar age and experience.  Both had 19 points, but Hunwick is far better in his own zone for 1/3 the cost. Hunwick. 

That leaves young D McCabe vs. Carrick.  McCabe is obviously the better player and plays a bigger role for us, but Carrick is their 6th D and McCabe our 2nd because high priced failures Bogo and Kulikov crapped out.

 

 

So we are 2 for 6.  I tried to match up by age and experience.  Match up by role if you want and the results are the same.  The Leafs are currently more talented and are getting more bang for the buck.  Then again their GM has won Cups and managed the Cap before.  Our 1st time GM has never won anything but the Sabres GM job.

 

Your other theory that suddenly guys on our team became hopeless while playing for DD is a not supported by the facts.  McCabe and Risto have continued to improve.  Falk and Fedun had career best years, but the other 4 were already in decline when they got here.  Hard to believe considering Bogo and Kulikov's age, but look at the circumstances.  Bogo, Kulikov and Gorges were all traded because none performed to their bloated contracts with their prior teams,  Gorges was traded because Mon wanted to get young, faster and cheaper.  Is it really a surprise that his game has continued to suffer as the game's speed has increased further?  Franson was supposed to be this big FA, but no GM, except Murray, wanted to give him more than a 1 yr deal, again because of a serious lack of foot speed.  Is it really any surprise that, like Gorges, he gets beat consistently?  Fla traded Kulikov because his O had decreased along with his possession numbers in recent years.  TM said he picked him up because of his excellent playoffs.  Oops! TM now admits the trade was a mistake.  This time he has the speed, but lacks hockey IQ.  Bogo is much the same story, but his regression is harder to swallow because he thrived in the 2nd half of last season under the same coach and "system."  So why the failure this year?  The only things I can think of is injuries and attitude.  One other note on Bogo; the guy had extensive injury history when acquired.  Is it any surprise that trend has continued in Buffalo.  In fact Bogo hasn't come close to playing a full season since 2010-11.  He has averaged just 60 games per year.  Hard to have the paid for impact when you are only playing 75% of the season.  To make matters worse, these 4 "players" consumed around 17 mill of our cap this past season.  Total production from these 4 was 237 games (59.25 gms on average) 8g 41pts -51.  That's $407K per point.

Edited April 20, 2017 by GASabresFan

[MattPie]

Besides Risto being better the Reilly which Sabre is a better player then their corresponding Leaf player.  

Gardiner is next, who do we have that's as good?  Bogo would be the matchup on age and experience.  Who are you taking?

How about Vaitsez vs Kulikov?  Similar age, both Russians.  In Vaitsev's rookie season he out produced Kulikov's best NHL season.  

How about physical D vs physical D?  Who is better Polak or Gorges? Polak is both cheaper and better.

 

So far we are 1 for 4.  How about Franson vs Hunwick.  Again similar age and experience.  Both had 19 points, but Hunwick is far better in his own zone for 1/3 the cost. Hunwick. 

That leaves young D McCabe vs. Carrick.  McCabe is obviously the better player and plays a bigger role for us, but Carrick is their 6th D and McCabe our 2nd because high priced failures Bogo and Kulikov crapped out.

 

 

So we are 2 for 6.  I tried to match up by age and experience.  Match up by role if you want and the results are the same.  The Leafs are currently more talented and are getting more bang for the buck.  Then again their GM has won Cups and managed the Cap before.  Our 1st time GM has never won anything but the Sabres GM job.

 

Your other theory that suddenly guys on our team became hopeless while playing for DD is a not supported by the facts.  McCabe and Risto have continued to improve.  Falk and Fedun had career best years, but the other 4 were already in decline when they got here.  Hard to believe considering Bogo and Kulikov's age, but look at the circumstances.  Bogo, Kulikov and Gorges were all traded because none performed to their bloated contracts with their prior teams,  Gorges was traded because Mon wanted to get young, faster and cheaper.  Is it really a surprise that his game has continued to suffer as the game's speed has increased further?  Franson was supposed to be this big FA, but no GM, except Murray, wanted to give him more than a 1 yr deal, again because of a serious lack of foot speed.  Is it really any surprise that, like Gorges, he gets beat consistently?  Fla traded Kulikov because his O had decreased along with his possession numbers in recent years.  TM said he picked him up because of his excellent playoffs.  Oops! TM now admits the trade was a mistake.  This time he has the speed, but lacks hockey IQ.  Bogo is much the same story, but his regression is harder to swallow because he thrived in the 2nd half of last season under the same coach and "system."  So why the failure this year?  The only things I can think of is injuries and attitude.  One other note on Bogo; the guy had extensive injury history when acquired.  Is it any surprise that trend has continued in Buffalo.  In fact Bogo hasn't come close to playing a full season since 2010-11.  He has averaged just 60 games per year.  Hard to have the paid for impact when you are only playing 75% of the season.  To make matters worse, these 4 "players" consumed around 17 mill of our cap this past season.  Total production from these 4 was 237 games (59.25 gms on average) 8g 41pts -51.  That's $407K per point.

 

I'm not entirely disagreeing with you, but if you have two D that apparently don't have high Hockey IQ, why force them into a system that requires reading the entire ice and making pinpoint passes to drive the offense? Falk and Fedun looked promising, but it's tough to call them career years. Falk had more points in less games in 2011. Fedun has played 39 NHL games, 20 some this year. It's good that McCabe and Risto can play Dan's system, now we only need 4 more solid guys. Or a new system where the guys we have might be solid.

 

It boils down to: I don't think the Sabres can come up with 6 guys that can be hugely successful in Dan's offense plan (long passes). And something is going on with D coverage where everyone (other than McCabe and Risto look completely lost out there). This really feels like one of those things where the guys that leave are going to look a lot better wherever they end up.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Toronto's success has to be a primary reason the DD and TM are out the door.  

 

Now the question is how do we catch-up to the Loafs.

1) Get at least 3 new D in our top 6 next season.  

2) Use this draft to help fill the talent gap between the two teams.

3) Move out bad contracts (Bogo, Moulson) and bad apples (Kane).

3) Focus on development instead of trading assets for vets.

4) Hire a coach that will adjust to the players he has well.  Ruff did this over the years (compare his Hasek lead teams to his Drury lead teams).  The guys needs to have some NHL head coaching experience, First interview questions should be how will you utilize Jack and Sam.

5) Before a coach, get a GM with a history of success and player development.  Paul Fenton for example has built Milwaukee into a perennial playoff team while helping Poile draft and develop the players that have made small market Nashville into an annual contender.

6) makes sure your organization has adequate depth at all levels.

[dudacek]

Toronto's success has to be a primary reason the DD and TM are out the door.

Did you see any evidence of this from Pegula?

 

I mean team performance obviously was a factor (you rarely fire someone who is performing well) but there was nothing in Pegula's presser about bad trades, lack of depth, poor drafting decisions, bad cap management or any of the other things you have repeatedly brought up. We heard about lack of structure, discipline and communication.

 

Based strictly on the press conference, it seemed to me Murray was fired more for his inability to run a functional, healthy organization than for his hockey judgement.

Edited April 22, 2017 by dudacek

[Jsixspd]

I think the titular question was definitively answered;  Shanahan and Babcock have done a heckuva lot better job with the Leafs than Murray and Bylsma did with the Sabres.   They were supposed to be behind us - guess they weren't?  

[I-90 W]

I honestly don't think the leafs are nesecarrily that much further along than we are. They got the coach that we wanted. Had we had Babcock I think we would have made the playoffs.

 

Next season we'll have a new HC, and hopefully a better defense and less injuries. I wouldnt be sursprised if we finish ahead of them in our division next season. Not surprised at all.

[inkman]

I honestly don't think the leafs are nesecarrily that much further along than we are. They got the coach that we wanted. Had we had Babcock I think we would have made the playoffs.

 

Next season we'll have a new HC, and hopefully a better defense and less injuries. I wouldnt be sursprised if we finish ahead of them in our division next season. Not surprised at all.

I REALLY want to believe this

[GoPuckYourself]

Once we get a competent HC things should turn around fairly quickly, I think we finally found the HC for the Bills and I hope we can do the same for the Sabres, it will make a huge difference especially for our playmakers, I'd prefer a HC who can relate to the players, obviously.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Did you see any evidence of this from Pegula?

 

I mean team performance obviously was a factor (you rarely fire someone who is performing well) but there was nothing in Pegula's presser about bad trades, lack of depth, poor drafting decisions, bad cap management or any of the other things you have repeatedly brought up. We heard about lack of structure, discipline and communication.

 

Based strictly on the press conference, it seemed to me Murray was fired more for his inability to run a functional, healthy organization than for his hockey judgement.

Dis-function is "color" if the team is succeeding and improving.  While TP didn't reference the Leafs, the Sabres mess looks worse when your team's biggest rival is back into the playoffs one year after bottoming out while your team seems farther away two years after bottoming out.  Everything Tor has done seems more professional, from management hires, player development, coaching, roster management etc...  It's only natural to make those comparisons even if you don't speak of them publicly.

[bunomatic]

Dis-function is "color" if the team is succeeding and improving.  While TP didn't reference the Leafs, the Sabres mess looks worse when your team's biggest rival is back into the playoffs one year after bottoming out while your team seems farther away two years after bottoming out.  Everything Tor has done seems more professional, from management hires, player development, coaching, roster management etc...  It's only natural to make those comparisons even if you don't speak of them publicly.

Terry has only himself to blame. I guess he's taking charge of that now but if he's unhappy with the results the buck stops with him.

[Guest]

No question, although I don't think he could have done more to get Babcock. I think his biggest mistake was not getting a real hockey person over TM. A mistake I hope he doesn't make again.

[TrueBlueGED]

Did you see any evidence of this from Pegula?

 

I mean team performance obviously was a factor (you rarely fire someone who is performing well) but there was nothing in Pegula's presser about bad trades, lack of depth, poor drafting decisions, bad cap management or any of the other things you have repeatedly brought up. We heard about lack of structure, discipline and communication.

 

Based strictly on the press conference, it seemed to me Murray was fired more for his inability to run a functional, healthy organization than for his hockey judgement.

 

Do you honestly believe Murray gets fired if we're in the playoffs? He was fired because the team was neither good nor functional. We heard about structure, discipline, and character...in the context of a bad team. Pegula, rightly or wrongly, believes those things contribute to winning...ergo, Murray was fired primarily because the team was not winning, and Pegula didn't think he had the right stuff to get them winning.

[nfreeman]

Do you honestly believe Murray gets fired if we're in the playoffs? He was fired because the team was neither good nor functional. We heard about structure, discipline, and character...in the context of a bad team. Pegula, rightly or wrongly, believes those things contribute to winning...ergo, Murray was fired primarily because the team was not winning, and Pegula didn't think he had the right stuff to get them winning.

 

Yes indeed, and he also mentioned winning & competing for the cup  a few times.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Do you honestly believe Murray gets fired if we're in the playoffs? He was fired because the team was neither good nor functional. We heard about structure, discipline, and character...in the context of a bad team. Pegula, rightly or wrongly, believes those things contribute to winning...ergo, Murray was fired primarily because the team was not winning, and Pegula didn't think he had the right stuff to get them winning.

It the same reason I never understood why Regier was initially retained; why keep the guy if he screwed it up in the first place.

[dudacek]

Do you honestly believe Murray gets fired if we're in the playoffs? He was fired because the team was neither good nor functional. We heard about structure, discipline, and character...in the context of a bad team. Pegula, rightly or wrongly, believes those things contribute to winning...ergo, Murray was fired primarily because the team was not winning, and Pegula didn't think he had the right stuff to get them winning.

 

Don't disagree with any of that; thought I made that clear in my post.

I was talking about the underlying reasons why Pegula thought they weren't winning, and — more importantly — why he wasn't giving him a chance to fix it.

[dudacek]

And just as an addendum, since I've come down hard on Pegula's fickle nature and have also been in Murray's corner.

 

It is entirely possible Murray had proved to be irredeemably bad administrator, leader and manager of people and that was the biggest factor in the malaise that enveloped the franchise. These are things as fans we aren't really privy to.

 

And if that was the case, then I like that Terry acted swiftly and unequivocally to say that is unacceptable and these are the consequences.

That sends a message that resonates down to the stickboy and is, in fact, what I'd expect from a winning culture.

 

It's Terry's track record that makes me question that.

But we know he doesn't like to be that heavy.

Hopefully this is a sign of him growing into the role.

Edited April 23, 2017 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

Don't disagree with any of that; thought I made that clear in my post.

I was talking about the underlying reasons why Pegula thought they weren't winning, and — more importantly — why he wasn't giving him a chance to fix it.

 

Your last line in the post I quoted did not make this clear at all. Not to me, anyway. 

 

ANYWAY, this is certainly fair.