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Posted

Prediction from an analytics website.

http://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview1617/preview.html

Has Sabres finishing 30th

Thank you for helping. I encourage everyone to post what they find.

 

I know I also said that I wasn't commenting, but when will these stat only guys include trend analysis in their calculations? Also when will they discount performance from three years ago when the roster has had 90% turnover since then? Garbage in garbage out.

Posted (edited)

Prediction from an analytics website.

 

http://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview1617/preview.html

 

Has Sabres finishing 30th

 

Past performance predicting future out come of a totally different team.

 

The ###### in the analytics in this is producing poop.

 

Edit:

 

The blacked out word is the first 4 letters of analytics, but hey, poop is ok.

Edited by Woods-Racer
Posted

I'm not evaluating the quality of previews, just posting what I find.

I'm not blaming you for their quality or complaining you posted them. Thanks for the effort
Posted

Thank you for helping. I encourage everyone to post what they find.

 

I know I also said that I wasn't commenting, but when will these stat only guys include trend analysis in their calculations? Also when will they discount performance from three years ago when the roster has had 90% turnover since then? Garbage in garbage out.

I don't see how trend analysis would help improve the projection to the Sabres all that much--two horrible years followed by a low-middle year is statistically a blip, not a trend. And while weighting last season heavily would certainly be appropriate for the Sabres given the tank, it would be a poor modeling choice for the league since pure luck in a given season can have such a dramatic effect on a team's record (Calgary and Colorado making the playoffs, LA and Montreal missing, and so on).

 

His model is fine. Sure it's not a good fit for a team that spent two years tanking, but adjusting it to account for that outlying scenario would likely worsen the model as a whole.

Posted

I don't see how trend analysis would help improve the projection to the Sabres all that much--two horrible years followed by a low-middle year is statistically a blip, not a trend. And while weighting last season heavily would certainly be appropriate for the Sabres given the tank, it would be a poor modeling choice for the league since pure luck in a given season can have such a dramatic effect on a team's record (Calgary and Colorado making the playoffs, LA and Montreal missing, and so on).

 

His model is fine. Sure it's not a good fit for a team that spent two years tanking, but adjusting it to account for that outlying scenario would likely worsen the model as a whole.

I disagree.  His model suppresses the performance of rebuilding teams.  

 

 

http://www.dailyfaceoff.com/41216/buffalo-sabres

Posted

Heard USA today projected us to 78pts... seems low.

 

It's becoming a trend. Either we're a bit delusional, or the predictions are being done with stats of the last few years and artificially low for Buffalo.

Posted (edited)

It's becoming a trend. Either we're a bit delusional, or the predictions are being done with stats of the last few years and artificially low for Buffalo.

Aren't the USA Today previews written by Kevin Allen? If so, there's no chance in hell it's based on a statistical model. Ultimately, I think opinion around the league about our blue line is more in tune with what I believe than seems to be the consensus around here. And nobody outside of Buffalo believes in Lehner.

Edited by TrueBlueGED
Posted

Aren't the USA Today previews written by Kevin Allen? If so, there's no chance in hell it's based on a statistical model. Ultimately, I think opinion around the league about our blue line is more in tune with what I believe than seems to be the consensus around here. And nobody outside of Buffalo believes in Lehner.

 

Lehner?

 

Sasquatch-199x300.jpg

Posted

Aren't the USA Today previews written by Kevin Allen? If so, there's no chance in hell it's based on a statistical model. Ultimately, I think opinion around the league about our blue line is more in tune with what I believe than seems to be the consensus around here. And nobody outside of Buffalo believes in Lehner.

Sure, but will we really get less points than last year? The predictions still seem kinda low...

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