Rochester Americans 2016-2017

[GASabresIUFAN]

Two words: No Defenseman! ????

Edited May 23, 2017 by GASabresFan

[dudacek]

Clearly he didn't do enough, or sign the right players.

But he signed Donovan and Sanguinetti to go with Ruhwedel in 2015 and Strachan, Falk and Fedun last year. They were like the definition of serviceable AHL vets.

Trouble is the prospects they played with were terrible and injuries and call-ups meant Donovan was the only one of the bunch who spent a full season in Rochester.

And by the time he brought in Bodie and Mullen last year it was too late

 

Assuming Gorges and six better players in Buffalo, is this a solid AHL defence for next year?

 

Guhle (Fedun/other AHL veteran)

Falk Nelson

Bodie Austin

Stephens Martin

Edited May 23, 2017 by dudacek

[shrader]

Haven't they been running into the issue of having too many AHL vets at some points.  You can sign all those guys you want, but if you can't dress each of them at the same time it's a waste.

[Drunkard]

Murray also wanted to improve Roch and stressed building a winner, which is something every single GM wants to do, it's nothing revolutionary.  

 

The issue with BUF and similar to other bottom feeders is that they're always picking near the top of the draft and those guys end up playing on the big club very early in their careers (straight out of junior/college) because they're talented enough and there isn't any competition for spots.        As a result there's a significant talent void in Roch.     Teams like ANA, SJ, CHI, etc... have stronger farm teams because A) they're picking near the bottom of the draft and those players need more time to develop and B) there is no room on the big club for those players when they finish their junior/college careers.

 

To create a winner in Roch, BUF needs to improve their talent at the NHL level which means they'll be picking lower in the draft, and they won't need to rush guys up to BUF because of a lack of depth.

 

This would only be the case for the 1st rounder we've gotten every year but the draft has 7 rounds which tears your theory apart with respect to where they draft. It's not like the 38th player taken with our 2nd round pick is better than the guy Anaheim takes at 24 or 28. None of our picks after the first round ever jump straight into the NHL. Same with whomever we take at 68 vs whomever they take at 54 or 58 and down the line. 

 

The real reason isn't because of where they draft (other than the first round), it's because there are fewer open spots on more talented teams. Guys like Manson, Montour, Theodore, etc. get a chance to develop in the minors because Anaheim has guys like Fowler, Vantanen, Lindholm, Bieksa, and Stoner holding their own (some better than others) which keeps the young guys down on the farm longer.

 

We're doing it now with Guhle. The defense sucks so everyone is penciling him into our top 4 rather than considering that he should probably spend some time in Rochester. It's kind of tough not to want to rush Guhle though when the alternative is watching Gorges play another season as he gets slower and slower with age. The B portion of your post has way more to do with it than the A portion.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Drunkard

[nfreeman]

TM ran the BSens form 2007 to 2014.

7/8 missed playoffs

8/9 missed playoffs

9/10 missed playoffs

10/11 finished 5th in Division, but Won Championships

11/12 missed playoffs

12/13 made playoffs

13/14 made playoffs

 

Not exactly a great record.

 

Jbot was GM of the Baby Pens for the last 8 years and they made the playoffs each year.

 

 

Good post, and it again raises the question of why we hired the AGM of a thoroughly mediocre organization to run the Sabres. 

 

In fact, I'm ready to launch an all-new SabreSpace meme:  "the myth of GMTM as a skilled and proven talent evaluator."

 

#funnybutabozo

#wasted3years

#nomorelosers

 

Murray tried. He brought in proven AHL studs like COR, Sanguinetti, Fedun, Grant...

Didn't work. I'm not sure why. Wrong players? Bad environment? Too many injuries and call-ups?

 

Prior to last year, we were suffering from three straight years without a second-round pick and failure to hit on anyone decent below that. But the tank generated a lot of picks and the 2013 and 14 drafts should be making an impact now. It will be interesting to see who does. Baptiste, Bailey and Ullmark at least look like they were good AHLers.

 

Well, presumably his choices at coach played a big role.

 

And maybe #mythofGMTM just didn't know, and has never known, how to assemble a winning organization. 

 

 

This would only be the case for the 1st rounder we've gotten every year but the draft has 7 rounds which tears your theory apart with respect to where they draft. It's not like the 38th player taken with our 2nd round pick is better than the guy Anaheim takes at 24 or 28. None of our picks after the first round ever jump straight into the NHL. Same with whomever we take at 68 vs whomever they take at 54 or 58 and down the line. 

 

The real reason isn't because of where they draft (other than the first round), it's because there are fewer open spots on more talented teams. Guys like Manson, Montour, Theodore, etc. get a chance to develop in the minors because Anaheim has guys like Fowler, Vantanen, Lindholm, Bieksa, and Stoner holding their own (some better than others) which keeps the young guys down on the farm longer.

 

We're doing it now with Guhle. The defense sucks so everyone is penciling him into our top 4 rather than considering that he should probably spend some time in Rochester. It's kind of tough not to want to rush Guhle though when the alternative is watching Gorges play another season as he gets slower and slower with age. The B portion of your post has way more to do with it than the A portion.

 

I agree with the bolded and I share the concern about rushing Guhle.

[Randall Flagg]

Clearly he didn't do enough, or sign the right players.

But he signed Donovan and Sanguinetti to go with Ruhwedel in 2015 and Strachan, Falk and Fedun last year. They were like the definition of serviceable AHL vets.

Trouble is the prospects they played with were terrible and injuries and call-ups meant Donovan was the only one of the bunch who spent a full season in Rochester.

And by the time he brought in Bodie and Mullen last year it was too late

 

Assuming Gorges and six better players in Buffalo, is this a solid AHL defence for next year?

 

Guhle (Fedun/other AHL veteran)

Falk Nelson

Bodie Austin

Stephens Martin

:angry:  :(

[GASabresIUFAN]

Freeman, after Jbot's statement the other day regarding the Amerks and building a winning tradition there, I feel relatively confident that Guhle will start next season in Rochester.

 

I don't think there is an exact formula for building a good AHL team. We seem good teams filled with prospects from established winning NHL teams like Pitt or teams with a glut of good prospects working there way up like the Marlies.

 

TM had every opportunity to build a good prospect laden team considering the mountain of draft picks we had, but his trades over drafting certain positions and mostly Regier's failure to draft and develop anything beyond a 2nd rd pick destroyed that chance.

 

Since 2010, the Sabres have only had 3rd pick or lower picks skate in 59 games. 21 of those by Ullmark as an injury starter in goal. That means we have failed on nearly all of these 29 picks. Some still have a chance to make an impact, like Ullmark or Baptiste, but if you a wondering why our AHL stinks, this is probably the biggest cause, because these 29 players should form the core of the AHL squad.

[LGR4GM]

Freeman, after Jbot's statement the other day regarding the Amerks and building a winning tradition there, I feel relatively confident that Guhle will start next season in Rochester.

 

I don't think there is an exact formula for building a good AHL team. We seem good teams filled with prospects from established winning NHL teams like Pitt or teams with a glut of good prospects working there way up like the Marlies.

 

TM had every opportunity to build a good prospect laden team considering the mountain of draft picks we had, but his trades over drafting certain positions and mostly Regier's failure to draft and develop anything beyond a 2nd rd pick destroyed that chance.

 

Since 2010, the Sabres have only had 3rd pick or lower picks skate in 59 games. 21 of those by Ullmark as an injury starter in goal. That means we have failed on nearly all of these 29 picks. Some still have a chance to make an impact, like Ullmark or Baptiste, but if you a wondering why our AHL stinks, this is probably the biggest cause, because these 29 players should form the core of the AHL squad.

You can't just toss out that 29 number and walk away. anyone from 2015/2016 won't even be AHL eligible until potentially this year. Anyone in 2013/2014 I wouldn't expect as a 3rd rounder or later to be ready for NHL action until maybe this year or next. 

That said I agree with you in principle. The Sabres have not been great at developing players outside of round 1 or 2 in the post Drury/Briere era. 

[nfreeman]

You can't just toss out that 29 number and walk away. anyone from 2015/2016 won't even be AHL eligible until potentially this year. Anyone in 2013/2014 I wouldn't expect as a 3rd rounder or later to be ready for NHL action until maybe this year or next. 

That said I agree with you in principle. The Sabres have not been great at developing players outside of round 1 or 2 in the post Drury/Briere era. 

 

Ooooooooooohhhhhh.

 

GA caught again indulging in #HammyMath.

[Ogre]

It's good to see some encouraging signs both in franchise commitment and poster commitment. I'm really a big fan. I feel as close to the Amerks as I ever felt towards the Nordiques. That being said, I passed on early renewal for my seats. Last season was such a let down that I thought I may be done with seasons for a while. I literally threw a hand full of tickets away because no one wanted them. Since then there have been signs of life. Maybe I'll look into one seat for the season?

[GASabresIUFAN]

You can't just toss out that 29 number and walk away. anyone from 2015/2016 won't even be AHL eligible until potentially this year. Anyone in 2013/2014 I wouldn't expect as a 3rd rounder or later to be ready for NHL action until maybe this year or next. That said I agree with you in principle. The Sabres have not been great at developing players outside of round 1 or 2 in the post Drury/Briere era.

 

I didn't use 2015 or 2016. The 29 picks are from 2010 through 2014. I thought I included that in the original post. Edited May 24, 2017 by GASabresFan

[TrueBlueGED]

Good post, and it again raises the question of why we hired the AGM of a thoroughly mediocre organization to run the Sabres.

 

In fact, I'm ready to launch an all-new SabreSpace meme: "the myth of GMTM as a skilled and proven talent evaluator."

 

#funnybutabozo

#wasted3years

#nomorelosers

 

 

As written, I don't think this is fair. In his career he has enough home runs in drafts he's run to support his amateur scouting cred. Now pro scouting and team building? That's a different ball game.

[LGR4GM]

I didn't use 2015 or 2016. The 29 picks are from 2010 through 2014. I thought I included that in the original post.

You just said since 2010. I would still be cautious because 2013 and 2014 players making it to 100 games as 3rd rounders or after would be really rare. You might be right. I just think for those players we need to give them another 2 years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

You just said since 2010. I would still be cautious because 2013 and 2014 players making it to 100 games as 3rd rounders or after would be really rare. You might be right. I just think for those players we need to give them another 2 years.

As I put in my earlier post, Ullmark and Baptiste still have a chance to be impact players, but to only get 59 NHL to date from 29 3rd rd or lower picks from 5 drafts from 2010 to 2014 is terrible. The math says 15-20% of these players should have worked out. That's about 5-6 players. Granted these are mostly Regier drafts and not TM's, but is anyone impressed yet with the 2014 draft? Brycen Martin was our 3rd rd pick by TM in 2014 and he can't get out of the ECHL.

 

Right now the 3rd or lower picks in the system are Baptiste, Malone, Austin, Martin, Ullmark (rfa), Florentino (AHL deal), Stephens (2015) - Johansson and Estephen are unsigned.

 

By comparison, Pitt made 23 picks 3rd or later picks during the same period, and most were after we drafted. They have received 474 NHL games from 8 different players. Murray, Rust, Wilson and Guentzel are key players for them. Kuhlhackl earned a role this season and is 1 game shy of 100.

[LGR4GM]

Def an issue. It's why guys like Olofsson need to be signed and brought in.

[Huckleberry]

As I put in my earlier post, Ullmark and Baptiste still have a chance to be impact players, but to only get 59 NHL to date from 29 3rd rd or lower picks from 5 drafts from 2010 to 2014 is terrible. The math says 15-20% of these players should have worked out. That's about 5-6 players. Granted these are mostly Regier drafts and not TM's, but is anyone impressed yet with the 2014 draft? Brycen Martin was our 3rd rd pick by TM in 2014 and he can't get out of the ECHL.

 

Right now the 3rd or lower picks in the system are Baptiste, Malone, Austin, Martin, Ullmark (rfa), Florentino (AHL deal), Stephens (2015) - Johansson and Estephen are unsigned.

 

By comparison, Pitt made 23 picks 3rd or later picks during the same period, and most were after we drafted. They have received 474 NHL games from 8 different players. Murray, Rust, Wilson and Guentzel are key players for them. Kuhlhackl earned a role this season and is 1 game shy of 100.

 

I'm still saying the 2014 partially screwed murray over, 2015 and 2016 are very promising though.

[nfreeman]

As written, I don't think this is fair. In his career he has enough home runs in drafts he's run to support his amateur scouting cred. Now pro scouting and team building? That's a different ball game.

 

I'm sure he's hit on a few draft picks, but GA's data about his record as GM of Ottawa's AHL team is pretty damning.  

 

If he's really all that as a talent evaluator (and NB I didn't limit it to amateur talent), he should've been able to produce better results, especially at the AHL level.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'm sure he's hit on a few draft picks, but GA's data about his record as GM of Ottawa's AHL team is pretty damning.  

 

If he's really all that as a talent evaluator (and NB I didn't limit it to amateur talent), he should've been able to produce better results, especially at the AHL level.

 

It's damning regarding team building, but does't do much in terms of his amateur talent evaluation. Needs way more information and parsing to get to the point of inferring poor talent evaluation from a poor AHL record. How many of those picks were traded? How many games did they play in the A before moving to the NHL? How much freedom did he have to add AHL vets? And most importantly, how does his draft record compare to every other GM in the league during his tenure as AGM/head of scouting for the Ducks and Sens? After all, we know that a huge cloud of variance makes it difficult to truly identify good/bad drafters, and it takes a lot of picks to be able to pull things apart.

 

My theory is that he is a good evaluator of talent insofar as identifying skills and tools, which is why he has largely drafted well, but gets hung up on those things, which is often detrimental to his pro evaluations and team building. Like when he acquired Kane and Bogo, he talked about how much he liked both players in junior. How much should that really matter when they've had 5+ years in the league? I don't think it should mean much of anything, but I think it meant quite a bit to Murray. 

[nfreeman]

It's damning regarding team building, but does't do much in terms of his amateur talent evaluation. Needs way more information and parsing to get to the point of inferring poor talent evaluation from a poor AHL record. How many of those picks were traded? How many games did they play in the A before moving to the NHL? How much freedom did he have to add AHL vets? And most importantly, how does his draft record compare to every other GM in the league during his tenure as AGM/head of scouting for the Ducks and Sens? After all, we know that a huge cloud of variance makes it difficult to truly identify good/bad drafters, and it takes a lot of picks to be able to pull things apart.

 

My theory is that he is a good evaluator of talent insofar as identifying skills and tools, which is why he has largely drafted well, but gets hung up on those things, which is often detrimental to his pro evaluations and team building. Like when he acquired Kane and Bogo, he talked about how much he liked both players in junior. How much should that really matter when they've had 5+ years in the league? I don't think it should mean much of anything, but I think it meant quite a bit to Murray. 

 

I agree with the "huge cloud of variance," but with the 2nd bolded you are assuming away the issue that you correctly identified in the 1st bolded (although again it isn't actually stated correctly, since the context was your response to my #mythofGMTM post, which questioned his overall talent evaluation, not just amateur talent evaluation).

 

Until we have the data (with appropriate adjustments for the variables you identified, and likely others), all we have to go on is either the unsupported "he's a good talent evaluator" #mythofGMTM or the hard data of the results produced by his teams.  I'm going with the latter.

[TrueBlueGED]

I agree with the "huge cloud of variance," but with the 2nd bolded you are assuming away the issue that you correctly identified in the 1st bolded (although again it isn't actually stated correctly, since the context was your response to my #mythofGMTM post, which questioned his overall talent evaluation, not just amateur talent evaluation).

 

Until we have the data (with appropriate adjustments for the variables you identified, and likely others), all we have to go on is either the unsupported "he's a good talent evaluator" #mythofGMTM or the hard data of the results produced by his teams. I'm going with the latter.

This is too reasonable for me to argue with. Which is a shame, cuz I'm kinda bored.

[MattPie]

I'm curious as to the rationale of 2010-2014; it excludes 2009 4th M. Foligno (347 games) and 2009 3rd McNabb (238 games (12 with Buffalo)). That being said, 2008 is a complete wash for late round picks (Myers and Ennis in the first, Luke Adam in the 2nd, long-time poster nobody after that).

Edited May 24, 2017 by MattPie

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm curious as to the rationale of 2010-2014; it excludes 2009 4th M. Foligno (347 games) and 2009 3rd McNabb (238 games (12 with Buffalo)). That being said, 2008 is a complete wash for late round picks (Myers and Ennis in the first, Luke Adam in the 2nd, long-time poster nobody after that).

2010 to 2014 draftees is the range of Sabres prospects who should be populating the Amerks.  For example a 2010 draftee who plays one more USHL season plus 4 years of college will be entering his 3rd pro season and might still be in the AHL, while 2014 CHL players will be entering their 2nd pro/AHL season.  2015 draftees, like Guhle and Stephens are just now entering the pro ranks.

Edited May 24, 2017 by GASabresFan

[LGR4GM]

2010 to 2014 draftees is the range of Sabres prospects who should be populating the Amerks.  For example a 2010 draftee who plays one more USHL season plus 4 years of college will be entering his 3rd pro season and might still be in the AHL, while 2014 CHL players will be entering their 2nd pro/AHL season.  2015 draftees, like Guhle and Stephens are just now entering the pro ranks.

They could be. If you were drafted in 2014 from the CHL, you would have to play at least 2014/15 and 2015/16 in the CHL. You may also play that 3rd year depending on a number of factors. You were specifically talking about 100 NHL games played though and realistically a guy with 1 possible year of AHL experience isn't going to have 100 NHL games played. I think Baptiste and Fasching are perfect examples of the development curve that later round picks take. 4-5 years to reach the NHL. Baptiste was drafted in 2013 and has played 14 NHL games. 

 

I am nitpicking and I am sorry. I think your point about the Sabres properly developing later round picks is very valid and I think the lack of success in the AHL is a perfect example of how bad they have been at it. 

[Amerks8796]

As a long time Amerks STH this is by far the most optimistic I've been in a long time. Maybe since 2009. I love what Botterill is saying and he has a track record of actually backing it up.

[Sabre fan]

I do think that there is a lot more talent then we have seen with the Amerks (and the big team for that matter), Proper leadership and coaching should  make a world of difference at both levels