Expansion and the Sabres

[JJFIVEOH]

Only 1 goalie can be protected; barring something horrific, that'll be Lehner.

 

Carrier needs to be protected. The other kids are good.

 

Let's hope expansion to 32 is far off. That one won't be a killer, but Buffalo's exposed list will be a top priority of that squad. While it'll stink to lose 1/2 the Jets trade haul this summer, it won't really effect the on ice product. Losing 4th D or 8th F in 3 years will hurt. (Maybe they can package picks & a backup goalie to prevent that when it's an issue. Here's to hoping.)

 

OK, thanks. I was just confused as to what the requirements were for an 'exposed' goaltender. I assumed there was a minimum game requirement for goaltenders, apparently that's not the case. So I'm sure most teams have a 3rd stringer in the AHL with a pro contract that they'll use to expose. 

[tom webster]

UFA's in the NHL can be signed by their current team right up to & through July 1.

Hasn't there been some discussion that Vegas will have a 48 hour period before the expansion draft to sign UFA's and is they sign a UFA they can't pick a player from the UFA's current team?

[Taro T]

Hasn't there been some discussion that Vegas will have a 48 hour period before the expansion draft to sign UFA's and is they sign a UFA they can't pick a player from the UFA's current team?

Haven't heard the details of the mechanics of how the Vegas draft will occur. Not sure if Vegas will have a personal UFA signing window.

[dudacek]

I agree, minus the secondary scorer part. No way Murray pays the price he did if he thought he was getting a 20-goal scorer. At least, I hope not. I think Murray did what most of us did: saw Kane getting 3rd line even strength minutes and very limited PP time as the reason for his failure to be a regular 30 goal guy. Get him with our (eventual) centers, 1st unit PP time, and watch him score 30+ annually.

 

When I said secondary scorer I meant sidekick — an offensive Robin, not Batman.

I'm sure Murray thought he could score 30 in the role you describe if he stayed healthy.

Probably still thinks he can, but given his injury history I hope he wasn't counting on it year in and year out.

 

I really think that our GM traded for Kane for the edge in his game.  No other reason.

 

He was drafting skilled forwards, but they don't have what Kane brings. 

 

I remember it being discussed that Kane (or similar) was exactly what the Sabres needed.  Of course, those discussion could have been only in my head.  You know, the place where I juggle.

 

Edge in a top-six role. That's it to a T

[GASabresIUFAN]

If a guy is acquired to score 30 goals a year as a winger for Jack or Ryan, that is the definition of a sniper. The speed, forechecking etc.. are added bonuses, but they are not the reason he was acquired.

[JJFIVEOH]

I really think that our GM traded for Kane for the edge in his game.  No other reason.

 

He was drafting skilled forwards, but they don't have what Kane brings. 

 

I remember it being discussed that Kane (or similar) was exactly what the Sabres needed.  Of course, those discussion could have been only in my head.  You know, the place where I juggle.

 

It was discussed. 

 

I think it would be foolish for Murray to pursue trading Kane. It's one thing to break up a 2nd line for a trade. But Reinhart, Kane and Eichel clicked last year when they were put together. And Kane seems to be finding his game. I'm sure Eichel wants Kane on his line, and it's nice to have somebody to protect them when needed. Kane has flaws, those flaws can be fixed. And like has been mentioned, Kane is probably the only one fast enough to keep up with Eichel. 

 

If they can get 20 goals out of him (which should be pretty simple) then his intangibles are why he needs to stay here and stay on that line. You can't ask for a linemate that can stand up for his linemates and then complain because he's prone to injury. Two goals wouldn't have happened tonight without Kane. If Murray is taking trade offers for a deadline deal, I'll lose a lot of faith I had in him. 

[GrassValleyGreg]

If a guy is acquired to score 30 goals a year as a winger for Jack or Ryan, that is the definition of a sniper. The speed, forechecking etc.. are added bonuses, but they are not the reason he was acquired.

 

Sniper has a pretty specific definition and is in no way as broad as 30-goal scorer.

[Thorner]

Good question, and tough to answer because we don't have that much info yet.  He missed his first half-season here after the Sabres traded for him, played 1 season in which he was a good and effective player, had a problematic offseason, then immediately got hurt in his 2nd season here and is just now coming back to form.

 

IF he has a strong rest of this season and meshes well with Jackie boy and Reino, and stays out of trouble off the ice, I can definitely see them extending him.  It's become quite clear that the Sabres need all the offense they can get, and it's highly likely that it won't be coming from Moulson, Ennis or Zemgus -- so it's hard to see them cutting Kane loose if he is still a reliable 20-25 goal guy.

 

However, it also sounds like he's used up a good amount of his goodwill, so if there are any more arrests or missed practices I would kinda expect them to trade him at the deadline next year.

Well stated.

 

I agree with pretty much all of the above with one important addition: we desperately need Kane's speed.

If we dump him, we better have someone who can supply the same in a top six role.

It's night and day with him and Jack in the lineup.

 

 

Agree that the speed is key. When he's on his game he pushes the pace with his relentenless speed and forcheck and tilts the ice in our favour in ways that don't always show on the scoresheet.

 

When I said secondary scorer I meant sidekick — an offensive Robin, not Batman.

I'm sure Murray thought he could score 30 in the role you describe if he stayed healthy.

Probably still thinks he can, but given his injury history I hope he wasn't counting on it year in and year out.

 

 

 

 

 

Edge in a top-six role. That's it to a T

Given Kane's pace last year, health is probably the largest variable in the equation. I think he has the talent and skill-set to pot 30 again, definitely. Not sure it'll happen, but I think he can play at a level where he's in and around a 20 goal pace consistently. In today's NHL that's definitely something.

[inkman]

If a guy is acquired to score 30 goals a year as a winger for Jack or Ryan, that is the definition of a sniper...

Those are your parameters and definition. GMTM isn't going to tell anyone Evander Kane has to score 30 goals. He's going to say he needs to play his game. Which is skating, hitting and shooting.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Those are your parameters and definition. GMTM isn't going to tell anyone Evander Kane has to score 30 goals. He's going to say he needs to play his game. Which is skating, hitting and shooting.

 

Again, what good is a guy who takes a million shots and score of none of them (or very few)?  We had a injury prone guy who hit and skated fast and his name was Pat Kaleta and he certainly wasn't worth 5 mill a season.  Granted Kane is the better and more talented player, but his play this year is Pat Kaleta-ish.  Kane is supposed to be a scorer first and foremost, but he can't hit the net on his shot.  Even when he makes a great play (which he did to split the D which ultimately lead to Jack's GWG), Kane missed the net from 5 feet on the breakaway.  

 

Kane lead the Sabres is shots last year with 271 and converted at 7.4%, which was 9th amongst Sabres forwards (Only Moulson, Girgensons, and Gionta were worse of the Sabres regulars). With zero goals on 29 shots in 12 games he is even worse.  This season he also has missed the net or had his shot blocked an additional 21.  So that is 50 shots attempted in only 12 games and zero goals.  

 

I honestly doesn't see how anyone can defend keeping him at this point.  There is still time for him to turn the season around, but at some point doesn't GMTM have to throw his arms up and say enough.  I'm past that point.  I rather give Carrier the chance.  I'd take Luca Sbisa and clear some cap and go from there.  Barring that, I'm exposing him in the expansion draft.  

Edited December 2, 2016 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

I don't like Kane as a player. He has the hockey sense of a squirrel. That being said, I can appreciate what he does well and have lowered my expectations. Viewing him as some goal scoring phenom with all the hype of a 4th overall pick is only clouding your judgment. He is what he is and that's an above average NHL winger.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't like Kane as a player. He has the hockey sense of a squirrel. That being said, I can appreciate what he does well and have lowered my expectations. Viewing him as some goal scoring phenom with all the hype of a 4th overall pick is only clouding your judgment. He is what he is and that's an above average NHL winger.

 It's not clouding my judgement at all.  GMTM's maybe, but not mine. I have said GMTM brought him into to be a scorer and in that role he has failed and is failing miserably.   I never said that I thought he was a legit NHL scorer.  In fact the stats I have shown illustrate that he isn't a competent scorer at all. Also to call him an above average NHL winger is really not accurate anymore. The average player (forwards and D) scored on 9% of their shots last season  Kane isn't even close. Like I said, he is playing a Pat Kaleta game at this point and deserves the same pay scale and ultimate fate.  My expectations are that if your being paid like a top two line player and playing on the top 2 lines, you need to produce at that level.  If you don't you should be gone.

[LGR4GM]

I'll wait til the season is over to pass judgement on E. Kane

[inkman]

It's not clouding my judgement at all. GMTM's maybe, but not mine. I have said GMTM brought him into to be a scorer and in that role he has failed and is failing miserably. I never said that I thought he was a legit NHL scorer. In fact the stats I have shown illustrate that he isn't a competent scorer at all. Also to call him an above average NHL winger is really not accurate anymore. The average player (forwards and D) scored on 9% of their shots last season Kane isn't even close. Like I said, he is playing a Pat Kaleta game at this point and deserves the same pay scale and ultimate fate. My expectations are that if your being paid like a top two line player and playing on the top 2 lines, you need to produce at that level. If you don't you should be gone.

I don't really care what these guys are making.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't really care what these guys are making.

 

I understand that and it would be great just to evaluate a player on his play and production, but that isn't really possible in a salary cap world.  In a cap world and a team that is now at the cap, how we spend our cap money is critically important.  Bad hockey teams are loaded with bad contracts and we have a significant number of them.

 

Kane, Ennis, Bogo, Kulikov, and Gorges are 22% of the roster, earn nearly $21 mill accounting for nearly 30% of the our cap.  Are these guys contributing anywhere near their cap cost?  These 5 guys have 1 goal and 6 assists and other then Gorges all are injured or have been injured consistently.  we simply can't afford to carry that much dead money and expect to succeed.   

[Taro T]

I understand that and it would be great just to evaluate a player on his play and production, but that isn't really possible in a salary cap world.  In a cap world and a team that is now at the cap, how we spend our cap money is critically important.  Bad hockey teams are loaded with bad contracts and we have a significant number of them.

 

Kane, Ennis, Bogo, Kulikov, and Gorges are 22% of the roster, earn nearly $21 mill accounting for nearly 30% of the our cap.  Are these guys contributing anywhere near their cap cost?  These 5 guys have 1 goal and 6 assists and other then Gorges all are injured or have been injured consistently.  we simply can't afford to carry that much dead money and expect to succeed.

 

When 2 of your top six forwards are on ELC's & 1/2 of your top pairing in making under $2/yr, you have some flexibility. Several of those contracts come off the books this off-season. The cap isn't much of a concern at present. (& remember, there were concerns raised about meeting the cap floor when several of those contracts were signed.)

[LGR4GM]

I understand that and it would be great just to evaluate a player on his play and production, but that isn't really possible in a salary cap world.  In a cap world and a team that is now at the cap, how we spend our cap money is critically important.  Bad hockey teams are loaded with bad contracts and we have a significant number of them.

 

Kane, Ennis, Bogo, Kulikov, and Gorges are 22% of the roster, earn nearly $21 mill accounting for nearly 30% of the our cap.  Are these guys contributing anywhere near their cap cost?  These 5 guys have 1 goal and 6 assists and other then Gorges all are injured or have been injured consistently.  we simply can't afford to carry that much dead money and expect to succeed.   

But if they go on IR we get that money back anyways. Every game Ennis sits out is cap savings for the Sabres. Them being injured actually saves us money against the cap. 

 

You keep defining contributions by defenders in terms of points, I don't think that is the way to do it and I think drawing conclusions about players like Gorges or Kulikov based on them not scoring is folly. 

[Taro T]

But if they go on IR we get that money back anyways. Every game Ennis sits out is cap savings for the Sabres. Them being injured actually saves us money against the cap.

 

You keep defining contributions by defenders in terms of points, I don't think that is the way to do it and I think drawing conclusions about players like Gorges or Kulikov based on them not scoring is folly.

 

Not accurate at the detail level, but it looks like you get the concept. It doesn't save them any actual money nor does it create cap space. (IF they end up over the cap, it does save them actual $'s in a VERY roundabout way (due to actual salary paid out to players being set at a hard %age of leaguewide revenues) but it's a relative pittance & more of a technicality than anything else.) BUT, if they are on LTIR, the Sabres can essentially exceed the cap by their salary. As the Sabres are not a self-imposed cap team, having players out on LTIR effectively doesn't limit their ability to pay replacements. Edited December 2, 2016 by Taro T

[LGR4GM]

That's a better explanation. 

[dudacek]

 It's not clouding my judgement at all.  GMTM's maybe, but not mine. I have said GMTM brought him into to be a scorer and in that role he has failed and is failing miserably.   I never said that I thought he was a legit NHL scorer.  In fact the stats I have shown illustrate that he isn't a competent scorer at all. Also to call him an above average NHL winger is really not accurate anymore. The average player (forwards and D) scored on 9% of their shots last season  Kane isn't even close. Like I said, he is playing a Pat Kaleta game at this point and deserves the same pay scale and ultimate fate.  My expectations are that if your being paid like a top two line player and playing on the top 2 lines, you need to produce at that level.  If you don't you should be gone.

 

No, the stats you cite show he isn't a competent "sniper" which, in this case means someone who scores on a high percentage of his shots.

 

A "scorer" is someone who scores.

Last season he was 25th in the NHL in goals scored by a left wing.

The previous season he was 71st

And the season before that he was 33rd

If you add those three seasons up, he was 34th overall during that span.

 

This from a guy who missed half a season in the middle year and close to 20 games in each of the other two.

Those stats show a borderline first-line/excellent second-line NHL scorer, even when he gets hurt.

They don't account for the other things he brings.

 

You want to evaluate him on a year where he has been playing with broken ribs under the most conservative system imaginable, go ahead.

But that sounds like clouded judgement to me.

Edited December 3, 2016 by dudacek