Which Current Buffalo Prospect Will Have a Better Career Than Vesey?

[WildCard]

And no, Nylander is not an optinon, that's a given. Multiple choices allowed

 

But, pick!

Edited August 21, 2016 by WildCard

[Thorner]

I voted for Asplund because I think he has a chance to be a better all around player. I also threw a vote to Estephan. Probably against the spirit of the poll because I have no confidence at all in him becoming a better player than Vesey, but he had a huge jump his year in Juniors, and from what I've seen of him I've been very impressed by his skill set.

 

Some of the other guys have a chance but I'd wager on Vesey if I had to pick between them.

[Weave]

Bailey has the skills. So does Asplund. Neither are a given to be an NHL 2nd liner. Close as we get I guess.

[Randall Flagg]

All of them.

But seriously, I homer-picked Bailey, Fasching, and Asplund.

Taking off the glasses, I just hope one of those guys does. 

[That Aud Smell]

All of them.

Oh, I wanna kiss you.

 

(I clicked through to post the same thing.)

[Randall Flagg]

Oh, I wanna kiss you.

 

(I clicked through to post the same thing.)

:wub:

[K-9]

Bailey and Asplund. 

 

Bailey because he possesses a speed and strength combination that Vesey hasn't and never will or even can develop.

 

Asplund because he will prove to be the steal of this draft.

 

GO SABRES!!! 

[pi2000]

I like Bailey, but can he learn to finish. He has a better attitude than Vesey, which speaks well for his future.

 

I also think Guhle has a better pro career when all is said and done.

[TrueBlueGED]

I went with the partial homer pick in Bailey. Part of it is wanting the local kid to succeed in a big way, but there are very legitimate reasons for optimism--the raw physical skill set, the progression throughout the year, and the glimpses at the NHL level. There's a part of me that is worried he's a bigger Brian Holzinger, but F it, I believe in the kid.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Some of these guys are apples to oranges.  Vesey is a big winger.  Our prospects that fit that mold are Bailey, Fasching, Karabacek and and maybe Pu and Baptiste fit that description.  Asplund and Estephan are in the Reinhart smallish center mode.  I also think you should have included Cornel on your list as he is a prospect, like Estephan who is on the move and I think will take another huge step this year.  He is a C/RW so it will be interesting to see where he plays in Roch.

 

So as to your poll, I'm only going with Bailey.  I need to see more from Fasching this season to get a better idea on his progression, but he and Cornel could both also have better careers on the wing then Vesey.  

 

The thing about Vesey was the short-term need he filled as these prospects develop with the possibility of long-term excellence.  

[LGR4GM]

Ahh the Reinhart is small meme lives again.

 

 

Why does it matter what prospect is better or going to be better than Vesey? Tyler Ennis will be better than Vesey this year and now I never need to worry about Vesey. 

[WildCard]

Ahh the Reinhart is small meme lives again.

 

 

Why does it matter what prospect is better or going to be better than Vesey? Tyler Ennis will be better than Vesey this year and now I never need to worry about Vesey.

Because it's fun to talk about ;)

[inkman]

Some of these guys are apples to oranges. Vesey is a big winger. Our prospects that fit that mold are Bailey, Fasching, Karabacek and and maybe Pu and Baptiste fit that description. Asplund and Estephan are in the Reinhart smallish center mode. I also think you should have included Cornel on your list as he is a prospect, like Estephan who is on the move and I think will take another huge step this year. He is a C/RW so it will be interesting to see where he plays in Roch.

 

So as to your poll, I'm only going with Bailey. I need to see more from Fasching this season to get a better idea on his progression, but he and Cornel could both also have better careers on the wing then Vesey.

 

The thing about Vesey was the short-term need he filled as these prospects develop with the possibility of long-term excellence.

Doesn't look small to me.

 

[That Aud Smell]

The silver lining on Vesey not signing here is the schadenfreude I can enjoy if/when the guy doesn't do much in the NHL.

 

A stats guy posted a piece to NHL.com on the predictive careers for Vesey (can't readily find it right now) -- there are predictors that he'll become a serviceable 2nd line winger, and there are predictors that he won't do much of anything, 

[Wyldnwoody44]

Let's hope vesey has stronger collarbones that, some other "superstars"

 

I haven't watched a drop of vesey play, so I honestly have zero clue. But I hope Bailey and eventually Fasching are on the same level if not better.

[LGR4GM]

The silver lining on Vesey not signing here is the schadenfreude I can enjoy if/when the guy doesn't do much in the NHL.

 

A stats guy posted a piece to NHL.com on the predictive careers for Vesey (can't readily find it right now) -- there are predictors that he'll become a serviceable 2nd line winger, and there are predictors that he won't do much of anything, 

The math works out that Vesey should get roughly 30-35points in his first NHL season. If Zemgus can get going I would expect that from him.

[That Aud Smell]

Fasching 

 

At first I thought to myself: Both NCAA guys, and one scored at a rate of 1.02 ppg last season (Fasching) while the other was at 1.39 ppg (Vesey). Advantage, Vesey.

 

But then I checked the updated predictive translation factors (the link I found is below), and the NCAA is no longer aggregated into one lump sum: The Big 10 (Fasching) at last count got a .35 translation rate, whereas the ECAC got the lowest value at .23 (Vesey).

 

Based on those rates, you might expect Fasching to contribute ~30 points next season, and Vesey ~26.  :huh:

 

Oh, and Vesey was 23 when he scored at that rate in a weaker conference, while Fasching was 21 in a stronger one.

 

In summary: Fu*k Jimmy Vesey.

 

 

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors

[rakish]

At first I thought to myself: Both NCAA guys, and one scored at a rate of 1.02 ppg last season (Fasching) while the other was at 1.39 ppg (Vesey). Advantage, Vesey.

 

But then I checked the updated predictive translation factors (the link I found is below), and the NCAA is no longer aggregated into one lump sum: The Big 10 (Fasching) at last count got a .35 translation rate, whereas the ECAC got the lowest value at .23 (Vesey).

 

Based on those rates, you might expect Fasching to contribute ~30 points next season, and Vesey ~26.  :huh:

 

Oh, and Vesey was 23 when he scored at that rate in a weaker conference, while Fasching was 21 in a stronger one.

 

In summary: Fu*k Jimmy Vesey.

 

 

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors

 

You must adjust for teammates.

 

When you do so Vesey and Fasching aren't that close. In 2015 I have Vesey as the 20th best forward in his (should have been) draft class. I have Fasching as the 34th best forward of his draft class. Since roughly 50 players per year make the NHL, Vesey looks like (at 22) as a middle six forward. Fasching (at 20), being near 50 counting defenseman, is a borderline NHL player, or a borderline bottom 6 forward.

[LGR4GM]

Here is the thing with Vesey. He could come in and adapt well and score 20goals and 30-35assists in the NHL right away or by next year. Or he could come into the NHL and struggle to score, get frustrated, and drop 10g and 15a in his first year. Hard to say but I can say that he might not have set himself up for success. He will need to create his own opportunities to score in NYR to achieve the higher totals and the NHL isn't college, every defender can skate, every forward is fast, and sure we could make jokes about certain players but compared to college, NHL players are leagues better. Will be interesting to see how he adapts. 

[That Aud Smell]

You must adjust for teammates.

 

Says who?!  :P

 

When you do so Vesey and Fasching aren't that close. In 2015 I have Vesey as the 20th best forward in his (should have been) draft class. I have Fasching as the 34th best forward of his draft class. Since roughly 50 players per year make the NHL, Vesey looks like (at 22) as a middle six forward. Fasching (at 20), being near 50 counting defenseman, is a borderline NHL player, or a borderline bottom 6 forward.

 

I have no idea how you came to these conclusions, and I certainly don't put in the time or effort needed to debate the matter. I was just going off the translation factors with which I was familiar.

 

In any case, my point (valid or not) really remains:

 

In summary: Fu*k Jimmy Vesey.

[rakish]

If you look at the history of drafting, every great player's linemate gets drafted way too early, whether it's Gretzky or Lemieux or Patrick Kane, or whoever. You must adjust your math to the players they are playing with, you can't just do a straight multiple of points.

 

Additionally, you also have to adjust for age, as Fasching has a couple years on Vesey, so not all the data points to Vesey being better, but at this point enough do.

 

Jimmy Vesey did not just become a bad player. Last week I listened to multiple posters telling me how great Vesey was. How exactly did he become a terrible prospect

[That Aud Smell]

Jimmy Vesey did not just become a bad player. 

 

Did too.

 

How exactly did he become a terrible prospect

 

Because he signed elsewhere, silly.

 

More seriously: Who are the teammates/linemates that these two players had who would so skew their numbers?

[rakish]

Vesey

 

Fasching

 

Vesey outscored the rest of his team by 12 points in 33 games. Fasching was outscored by 5 points (on a PPG basis he comes in 3rd) in 37 games.

[That Aud Smell]

Vesey

 

Fasching

 

Vesey outscored the rest of his team by 12 points in 33 games. Fasching was outscored by 5 points (on a PPG basis he comes in 3rd) in 37 games.

So Vesey was the best player on his team in a weaker conference?

 

Without more, I'm not sure that comparison paints a clear picture.

 

Also, I don't dispute -- and I don't think anyone does -- that Vesey is a more coveted prospect than Fasching.

 

I do find it funny to call a 23 year old a prospect, btw.

 

Anyway: It was interesting for me to think of Vesey as maybe having NCAA numbers comparable to a guy whose ceiling is being a responsible 3rd line guy who chips in with 10+ goals a year.

[spndnchz]

Baptiste.