Sabres acquire Dmitry Kulikov for Mark Pysyk

[TrueBlueGED]

I think he's shown flashes of being good to very good at pretty much every desirable skill a defenseman should have, and he did so in his first full season. 

 

It should also be noted that an experienced NHL coaching staff clearly preferred him to Pysyk.

 

 

The eye test unmistakeably confirms that Pysyk never drove anything while on the ice. 

 

 

This. 

 

Also, the coaches also didn't trust him to kill penalties, and he had zero power play skill.

 

 

Yes indeed.  I'm much happier with where the Sabres are today after the trade they made than I would've been if they had traded #8 for Fowler.

 

 

 

I don't think this is the ultimate goal.

 

I also think it was more important to upgrade the role of Risto's partner than it was to maintain a good possession number at the #6-#7 defenseman slot.

 

 

This is an interesting question.  I wouldn't be surprised either way.  They still have Nelson and Franson at #6-#7.

 

Separately:  as Hoss noted upthread, GMTM spoke very highly of Kulikov -- high enough that I expect GMTM to try to sign him to an extension.

 

Also worth noting that Kulikov played over 25 min per game for Florida in the playoffs this year after being 3rd on the team in ice time in the regular season (he was paired with Ekblad for much of the season too).

 

I think this is a significant upgrade.

 

1) Yes, well, this experienced NHL coaching staff also things dump and chase is preferable to controlled entries because it makes defensemen turn around. So, ya know, mileage may vary.

 

2) Your eye test, not mine. He consistently made smart plays and accurate passes to get the puck going the other way.

 

3) The ultimate goal should be to drastically improve this team's even strength possession. Having players in roles where they are positive possession players seems to me to be a pretty good way of accomplishing this.

 

4) Hey, we agree! This is why I'm meh on the trade as opposed to disliking it entirely. We had to upgrade Risto's partner, and we did it without breaking the bank, and got a really nice prospect out of it. Works for me.

 

But I remain concerned about Murray's evaluation of defensemen. Let's say we extend Kulikov for $5M for 5 years. Is this really better than giving up a 5th round pick for Goligoski's rights, signing him to the deal Arizona did, and either keeping Pysyk on the 3rd pair or flipping him for something else? Goligoski was on the top pair on the best team in the West, and all of his metrics across the board have been solidly 1st pair for three years running. The trade in a vacuum is fine, but I feel like Murray really screwed the pooch on the overall defensive situation. Maybe he was caught off guard by Goligoski not hitting the open market, but I'm at least mildly concerned he would actually prefer Kulikov to Goligoski.

[JJFIVEOH]

Goligoski is also 31 years old.

Edited June 26, 2016 by JJFIVEOH

[dudacek]

I'd still like to add someone better than Kulikov, but we do have six legitimate NHL defencemen.

If another comes, someone else is going out.

[Huckleberry]

I'd still like to add someone better than Kulikov, but we do have six legitimate NHL defencemen.

If another comes, someone else is going out.

 

franson is  still dealing with a nasty concussion who knows when he'll come out of that one.

[That Aud Smell]

He certainly took it to an extreme and it seemed almost personal for him. But his points were sound, no? Which of his points made him look dumb?

By "dumb" I meant only that he sounded as though he was being governed in (large) part by emotions -- just not a good process.

 

It's fine for him to insist it was a bad trade, but he was such a ninny about it.

 

It's evident, as you note, that GM TM wants/needs more difference making plays out of his D. He spoke publicly last season about wanting more from Pysyk in that regard.

 

Here's the other thing: Coller may be highlighting a limitation of #fancystats on this one. Do those non- proprietary numbers provide Coller with as much hockey knowledge as GM TM and his group? Coller seems to think so. I am not so sure.

Edited June 26, 2016 by That Aud Smell

[North Buffalo]

By "dumb" I meant only that he sounded as though he was being governed in (large) part by emotions -- just not a good process.

 

Here's the other thing: Coller may be highlighting a limitation of #fancystats on this one. Do those non- proprietary numbers provide Coller with as much hockey knowledge as GM TM and his group? Coller seems to think so. I am not so sure.

1. The emotional part is an ironic twist because his use of stats are supposedly devoid of emotion.... just saying

 

 

2. This is the problem with a lot of staticians, they get arrogant about their results implying they show cause and effect, when in fact stats show neither. They only show that when one or multiple factor(s) is/are present another factor tends to change in corresponding or opposite direction in a predictable manner. Stats are always limited by the type of info gathered, the amount of it (sample size) and ability to quantify a certain skill set, always an issue when figuring out a human activity.

Edited June 26, 2016 by North Buffalo

[JohnnyK]

I like this trade

we get a top 4 tough D-man who hits and will drop the gloves for someone who can't clear the front of the net.

Kulikov is who took out J. Benn last year

and we also get a better prospect

go GMTM 

 

ps he is also left handed

[jsb]

I'm not an advanced numbers guy but it seems to me this is a major improvement on our 3rd LHD man. Wherever he ends up, he's a legitimate LHD candidate and whoever ends up on our 3rd pairing is a major upgrade over who we had there last season much less the prior 2. He was a 2nd pairing Dman on a team with the 3rd best goal differential in the league last year although it must be fair to point out Florida traded or didn't sign 3 of their top 4 and only 5 teams gave up less goals than they did. They did this by picking up our 3rd pairing D who wasn't getting all that much ice time before Franson's injury. I'm not seeing the downside of this trade especially if Asplund works out.

[nfreeman]

It occurs to me that Florida, after having their best season in forever, is swapping out 3 of their top 4 defensemen (assuming Soupy signs elsewhere). That's pretty strange.

[jsb]

I'm not an advanced numbers guy but it seems to me this is a major improvement on our 3rd LHD man. Wherever he ends up, he's a legitimate LHD candidate and whoever ends up on our 3rd pairing is a major upgrade over who we had there last season much less the prior 2. He was a 2nd pairing Dman on a team with the 3rd best goal differential in the league last year although it must be fair to point out Florida traded or didn't sign 3 of their top 4 and only 5 teams gave up less goals than they did. They did this by picking up our 3rd pairing D who wasn't getting all that much ice time before Franson's injury. I'm not seeing the downside of this trade especially if Asplund works out.

 

It occurs to me that Florida, after having their best season in forever, is swapping out 3 of their top 4 defensemen (assuming Soupy signs elsewhere). That's pretty strange.

Yep

[Stoner]

It occurs to me that Florida, after having their best season in forever, is swapping out 3 of their top 4 defensemen (assuming Soupy signs elsewhere). That's pretty strange.

They also shook up their front office with an eye toward analytics. Acquiring Pysyk makes sense in that regard. God Bless 'Em.

[nfreeman]

Yep

 

Well, now it's clear why that occurred to me!

[Weave]

They also shook up their front office with an eye toward analytics. Acquiring Pysyk makes sense in that regard. God Bless 'Em.

Yes. This looks like a change to an analytics built team. GED will be most interested in seeing how this pans out.

[French Collection]

I didn't really see Pysyk as our 3-4 D.

Kulikov will be top 4, some of it due to being left handed. That's why the trade is an upgrade, plus Asplund was the last 1st rounder on GMTM's list.

[TrueBlueGED]

By "dumb" I meant only that he sounded as though he was being governed in (large) part by emotions -- just not a good process.

 

It's fine for him to insist it was a bad trade, but he was such a ninny about it.

 

It's evident, as you note, that GM TM wants/needs more difference making plays out of his D. He spoke publicly last season about wanting more from Pysyk in that regard.

 

Here's the other thing: Coller may be highlighting a limitation of #fancystats on this one. Do those non- proprietary numbers provide Coller with as much hockey knowledge as GM TM and his group? Coller seems to think so. I am not so sure.

Counselor Smell, I would remind you that appeals to authority are not viewed favorably by this court. Tread carefully.

1. The emotional part is an ironic twist because his use of stats are supposedly devoid of emotion.... just saying

 

 

2. This is the problem with a lot of staticians, they get arrogant about their results implying they show cause and effect, when in fact stats show neither. They only show that when one or multiple factor(s) is/are present another factor tends to change in corresponding or opposite direction in a predictable manner. Stats are always limited by the type of info gathered, the amount of it (sample size) and ability to quantify a certain skill set, always an issue when figuring out a human activity.

So are eyes. Certainly, there's no arrogant eye test people out there ;)

[That Aud Smell]

Counselor Smell, I would remind you that appeals to authority are not viewed favorably by this court. Tread carefully.

I'd love to respond, but I'm not sure what you're saying here.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'd love to respond, but I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I thought your final point came awfully close to "He's a GM, you're not. Therefore..."

 

Didnt quite get there, but was inching towards it.

[That Aud Smell]

Ah, I see.

 

My point probably does approach that, but only because it's such a close question with so many moving parts beyond just player:player comparison (expansion draft, handedness, remaining term, etc.).

 

Murray uses analytics. He's said so. He also uses human experience. Along with his pro personnel people, they likely have hundred(s) of years of that experience.

 

What does Coller have? He has non-proprietary stats and a hobbyist-level interest in watching the game. A serious hobby, to be sure.

 

So when the trade is a close question, and the guys with presumably better stats and hundred(s) of years of experience make a call on what to do, and the guy with COTS stats and a hobbyist's interest acts as though the GM is off the rez and is making a grave mistake, I roll my eyes. And I wonder about the possibility that Coller thinks too much of what he knows, and of what be thinks be knows.

 

Did you see his Tweet about how Buffalo had treated Pysyk like "garbage?"

 

JFC, dude.

 

Mind you: Maybe tbis move doesn't quite work out as intended. No one has a crystal ball. You make the best decision you can based on the best information you can get. Coller can disagree, of course. But the certainty and edge he had to his opinion here were unsupported.

Edited June 26, 2016 by That Aud Smell

[ExWNYer]

Ah, I see.

 

My point probably does approach that, but only because it's such a close question with so many moving parts beyond just player:player comparison (expansion draft, handedness, remaining term, etc.).

 

Murray uses analytics. He's said so. He also uses human experience. Along with his pro personnel people, they likely have hundred(s) of years of that experience.

 

What does Coller have? He has non-proprietary stats and a hobbyist-level interest in watching the game. A serious hobby, to be sure.

 

So when the trade is a close question, and the guys with presumably better stats and hundred(s) of years of experience make a call on what to do, and the guy with COTS stats and a hobbyist's interest acts as though the GM is off the rez and is making a grave mistake, I roll my eyes. And I wonder about the possibility that Coller thinks too much of what he knows, and of what be thinks be knows.

 

Did you see his Tweet about how Buffalo had treated Pysyk like "garbage?"

 

JFC, dude.

 

Mind you: Maybe tbis move doesn't quite work out as intended. No one has a crystal ball. You make the best decision you can based on the best information you can get. Coller can disagree, of course. But the certainty and edge he had to his opinion here were unsupported.

 

Excellent points and very well stated. This is why I made the original comment about Coller. He's certainly entitled to his opinion and may even be proven correct about the trade but the way he was carrying on like a petulant child was ridiculous. The Sabres certainly never treated Pysyk like "garbage". He just didn't fit GMTM's vision. Nothing more, nothing less. Move along, Coller.

[deluca67]

franson is  still dealing with a nasty concussion who knows when he'll come out of that one.

 

THere has to be another defenseman coming.  Stamkos or no. 

Unless I missed something, Cam Fowler is still an option, is he not?

 

One way or another I believe Murray adds another top six forward and a top four defense-man. 

[North Buffalo]

Counselor Smell, I would remind you that appeals to authority are not viewed favorably by this court. Tread carefully.

 

So are eyes. Certainly, there's no arrogant eye test people out there ;)

Maybe true but I am sure there is a smell test eh counselor?? Reaching for a higher authority (smoke billowing)....

[dudacek]

Unless I missed something, Cam Fowler is still an option, is he not?

 

One way or another I believe Murray adds another top six forward and a top four defense-man.

 

If Kulikov is a better left-handed Bogo (note, I said if), does this not open the door for a Bogo (plus) for Barrie deal?

 

Kulikov Ristolainen

Gorges Barrie

McCabe Franson

 

I only say this for a chance to see Pi's avatar again

[Hoss]

Murray did indicate left-handed d is no longer a priority.

 

Which doesn't mean he won't be adding another and also could be a negotiating ploy for talks he has already had.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Hoss

[Radar]

Excellent points and very well stated. This is why I made the original comment about Coller. He's certainly entitled to his opinion and may even be proven correct about the trade but the way he was carrying on like a petulant child was ridiculous. The Sabres certainly never treated Pysyk like "garbage". He just didn't fit GMTM's vision. Nothing more, nothing less. Move along, Coller.

One must consider Coller may be suffering WGRitis. It's curable fortunately once you find employment more compatible with discussions rather than pontificating for ones own ego. It's quite remarkable that being in media elevates people's knowledge beyond those who are in the profession and getting paid or not paid depending on their evaluations.

[TrueBlueGED]

Ah, I see.

 

My point probably does approach that, but only because it's such a close question with so many moving parts beyond just player:player comparison (expansion draft, handedness, remaining term, etc.).

 

Murray uses analytics. He's said so. He also uses human experience. Along with his pro personnel people, they likely have hundred(s) of years of that experience.

 

What does Coller have? He has non-proprietary stats and a hobbyist-level interest in watching the game. A serious hobby, to be sure.

 

So when the trade is a close question, and the guys with presumably better stats and hundred(s) of years of experience make a call on what to do, and the guy with COTS stats and a hobbyist's interest acts as though the GM is off the rez and is making a grave mistake, I roll my eyes. And I wonder about the possibility that Coller thinks too much of what he knows, and of what be thinks be knows.

 

Did you see his Tweet about how Buffalo had treated Pysyk like "garbage?"

 

JFC, dude.

 

Mind you: Maybe tbis move doesn't quite work out as intended. No one has a crystal ball. You make the best decision you can based on the best information you can get. Coller can disagree, of course. But the certainty and edge he had to his opinion here were unsupported.

I certainly have no intention of defending Coller's tone and extent to which he panned the deal. At best, it was a disproportionate response to trading the team's 3rd pairing RHD. I agree the whole thing sounded oddly personal. Rough listen.

 

However, I don't think it's unreasonable to start questioning Murray's evaluation of defensemen, or at least raise a concerned eyebrow. He inherited Risto and McCabe, whom I believe would finish 1-2 in a popular assessment of our blue liners. It's one thing to say evaluations are more than just numbers, to which all sensible folk would agree. Every single defenseman he's added has been a net negative possession player (save for Franson, who was a net positive when given 3rd pairing minutes). I think that's at least worthy of potential worry. Maybe what he's looking for with his eyes really does not lend itself to possession play.

 

Meszaros

Benoit

Gorges

Bogosian

Colaiacovo

Franson

Donovan/Sanguinetti (grouped because only 1 had a real chance at a roster spot)

Nelson

Kulikov

 

That's, um, an unimpressive list for today's NHL. You can rationalize away the tank and point to a couple of 20 game stretches from Bogo, but it's not pretty. I don't think it's crazy to think the Pysyk-Kulikov swap, though filling an immediate need, could represent a symptom of a larger problem. I stress could be used it's early and we're still in only the second offseason where he's trying to improve (let us hope that he didn't think Mess and Balls were legitimate NHL defensemen, and were only acquired for the tank).

 

How much longer does the benefit of the doubt last on defensemen? For me, I'm giving him until next offseason before being especially harsh, but I'm officially paying attention. It's one thing to go with the eyes over the numbers in select instances, but when the eyes never match up with the numbers...maybe the problem is the eyes.