Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

[qwksndmonster]

TB: what did we bet again?

 

Never mind -- just found it. Looks like I'm in for $25 to the charity of your choice, plus the same to qwk. And I just did my taxes!

Ooohhh. Cool beans. I'll have a charity for you by tomorrow.

 

What, specifically, was the bet?

[Wyldnwoody44]

Well risto better be as advertised or better this year with the injuries we have, the D and GT is gonna have to hold the fort until we get (more) healthy. I don't know if collectively they are up to it.... Time shall tell

[nfreeman]

Ooohhh. Cool beans. I'll have a charity for you by tomorrow.

 

What, specifically, was the bet?

 

 

I said the contract would be 4 years or fewer; you and TB said longer than 4.

[qwksndmonster]

I said the contract would be 4 years or fewer; you and TB said longer than 4.

I remembered it feeling like a risk free bet. Just like when GoDD bet me that Hanzal would score more goals than Eichel last year. Too bad he was perma-banned before I won that one.

[Randall Flagg]

Pi, please confirm that Risto's first minus was on a shift that he only made good plays on, and that he had nothing to do with the goal. And please understand why +/- is a trash stat, like we've been telling you this whole time.

[LGR4GM]

Pi, please confirm that Risto's first minus was on a shift that he only made good plays on, and that he had nothing to do with the goal. And please understand why +/- is a trash stat, like we've been telling you this whole time.

He gave the puck away on that shift

[WildCard]

He gave the puck away on that shift

I disagree, but I don't think we'll see eye to eye on this one

[pi2000]

Pi, please confirm that Risto's first minus was on a shift that he only made good plays on, and that he had nothing to do with the goal. And please understand why +/- is a trash stat, like we've been telling you this whole time.

Go back and look at the play. Risto gets the puck at the point and hes not under any pressure. Instead of making a play he tries to pass it back down low while there's not 1 but 2 MTL players in the way. The MTL player picks off the pass and springs Gallagher out of the zone. Thay might look like an innocent play by Risto, but it's certainly not a play you want from your top defenseman who you just gave a $32 million dollars.

[Hoss]

I disagree, but I don't think we'll see eye to eye on this one

It's not something you can disagree with. He gave the puck away. It's a stat.

 

But that goal wasn't his fault.

[Randall Flagg]

Go back and look at the play. Risto gets the puck at the point and hes not under any pressure. Instead of making a play he tries to pass it back down low while there's not 1 but 2 MTL players in the way. The MTL player picks off the pass and springs Gallagher out of the zone. Thay might look like an innocent play by Risto, but it's certainly not a play you want from your top defenseman who you just gave a $32 million dollars.

I'm realizing that this is a bad example to talk about Risto's plus minus, but since we're focusing on him and i'm trying to highlight why it's bad, there are three players who made no mistakes on that shift. None. They now have a stat that when viewed at the end of the season says "this person did a bad thing" and allows Pi to say "look, he has these minuses." Does that seem fair/reasonable/rational to you?

 

For the record, I had forgotten that Risto's giveaway was on this shift, and like to point out that he's the only reason we spent any time in the offensive zone during that seven minute stretch or so, between two breakout passes and carrying the puck up the ice himself. 

 

See what we're saying about plus minus though, and why people in hockey don't take it seriously?

 

And like Hoss says, even though he got a "giveaway", the goal going in had nothing to do with Risto. Gorges kept his man away from the slot, the shot found its way in.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Randall Flagg

[WildCard]

It's not something you can disagree with. He gave the puck away. It's a stat.

 

But that goal wasn't his fault.

It is something I can disagree with. He swung at a bouncing puck and got a bad hit on it. Every single defenseman does that pinch

[Randall Flagg]

Also, they just showed the play. I'd hardly call that an egregious giveaway, or even a mistake. Sometimes that happens.

But my whole point is that +/- doesn't tell you anything about a player, unless it's an outlier one way or another relative to the team. When everyone is minus, and the guys with the worst minuses also happen to get the toughest minutes with Josh freaking Gorges, well, all that tells me is that it makes sense.

[Hoss]

It is something I can disagree with. He swung at a bouncing puck and got a bad hit on it. Every single defenseman does that pinch

You're thinking of the wrong giveaway. The one on the goal he was under no duress.

[pi2000]

I agree that +/- isn't a defining stat on it's own. But when you're in the minus 80s for your career, it raises some questions.... questions you shouldn't need to ask about your franchise defenseman who you just paid $32mil.

 

And I just saw him almost fall down in his own end under no pressure and cough up the puck. I expext better than that from my #1 dman. His skating and decision making still needs plenty of work.

Edited October 14, 2016 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

I agree that +/- isn't a defining stat on it's own. But when you're in the minus 80s for your career, it raises some questions.... questions you shouldn't need to ask about your franchise defenseman who you just paid $32mil.

And we're back to citing tank season stats along with those from one season as a 21 year old getting the hardest minutes of any comparable player inthe  NHL yet still being top 20 in defensive scoring. I'm not doing this again. Peace

[dudacek]

Flagg I entirely agree with you on Risto and I mostly agree with you on plus/minus (although I've always wondered why people don't seem to recognize that Corsi has nearly the identical flaws).

 

But you're wrong on this particular Risto minus.

 

Im of a school that suggest that sometimes goals just happen because of circumstance and great plays by opponents.

Coaches however, have to believe that every goal is the result of a breakdown.

 

Some have blamed Lehner for that goal. I don't. He was out, squared to the shooter and in excellent position. The shot was elite, well set up through a screen and doinked in off the goal post. It had to be perfect and it was.

 

You like to blame Gorges a lot and maybe you want to here too, but I don't see how.

A turnover in the other zone sent a good winger barreling through the neutral zone with speed. Gorges dropped back into a good position to account for that speed, recognized the offensive and defensive support and stood up to meet the rush outside the high danger zone. Gallagher wasn't going to beat him to the outside, he wasn't going through him and he wasn't going to beat him with a pass. Like Lehner, he made the correct play but got beat by an excellent shot from a good player.

 

So we have to take the play back a few seconds and find out why Gallagher was in a position to take that shot. The answer is well explained above. With the Sabres in possession in the attacking zone, Risto made a poor play with a puck that turned it over and sprung the Habs on the counterattack.

 

If you have to blame someone on the play, it has to be Risto.

 

I haven't looked at the second minus as closely, but I did see Gorges thrusting himself past Risto in a vain attempt to clear the crease while Risto stood idly by with no stick in his hands, no hands on his man and no desperation to block the puck on the goal line.

 

Whether you believe in plus/minus or not, Id say in both cases his minus was certainly deserved.

[Randall Flagg]

I've already said that this was a bad example to highlight what I think about Risto's minus situation, and that the stat is flawed because it gave 3 forwards who had nothing to do with the play something that a poster can look at months later and say "bad [insert player] is bad".

Gorges kept his man away from the slot, and made sure his only possible play was to shoot. 

 

I've also criticized Ristolainen on that third (or was it fourth) goal in the game day thread.

If I had come to this thread and replaced Risto's name with a forward who was on the ice for that goal, like I should have (and would have if I had noticed the giveaway the first time around) I think my argument would have been more clear. 

And even after all of this, Ristolainen's giveaway is one that happens to every defenseman every game. A flip down the boards to a forward, that doesn't take the right bounce or whatever, and doesn't get through the defenseman on that forward. A play that sucks, but one that is going to get made by everyone from time to time. That one turned into a goal.

(I also still want Lehner to stop it, but I don't care enough to continue arguing that point)

[beerme1]

If you have to blame someone on the play, it has to be Risto.

 

I haven't looked at the second minus as closely, but I did see Gorges thrusting himself past Risto in a vain attempt to clear the crease while Risto stood idly by with no stick in his hands, no hands on his man and no desperation to block the puck on the goal line.

 

Whether you believe in plus/minus or not, Id say in both cases his minus was certainly deserved.

 

 

Risto did take his man down though and his job was accomplished at that point.

[dudacek]

Risto did take his man down though and his job was accomplished at that point.

Was that Carr who got a couple whacks at Lehner while on the ice, or Shaw who scored the goal?

Either way, I don't see how his job was accomplished.

[beerme1]

Was that Carr who got a couple whacks at Lehner while on the ice, or Shaw who scored the goal?

Either way, I don't see how his job was accomplished.

 

 

I think it was Carr. Risto took him down and out of the play. The fact the guy was able to slide around and whack Lehner a couple times was more on Gorges I believe as he left Ristos zone. Better?

[qwksndmonster]

If I have to read "Thats not what I expect from a #1 32mil defenseman" every time risto up I'm going to explode.

[dudacek]

I think it was Carr. Risto took him down and out of the play. The fact the guy was able to slide around and whack Lehner a couple times was more on Gorges I believe as he left Ristos zone. Better?

  

 

Like I said, I haven't watched the replay.

 

If I have to read "Thats not what I expect from a #1 32mil defenseman" every time risto ###### up I'm going to explode.

Yep. Even moreso if it's deserved.

[pi2000]

And even after all of this, Ristolainen's giveaway is one that happens to every defenseman every game. A flip down the boards to a forward, that doesn't take the right bounce or whatever, and doesn't get through the defenseman on that forward. A play that sucks, but one that is going to get made by everyone from time to time. That one turned into a goal.

 

I agree. That turnover happens to lots of defenseman in the NHL.

 

But does Ekblad make the same play? Kieth? Doughty? Lindholm? Weber? Suter? Burns? Jones? Ghost? Letang? Seabrook? Barrie? Karlsson? Vatanen? Subban? Josi? Hedman? should I keep going?

 

Goal against or not, it's a disappointing play, a turnover, but yeah he's still developing and has a ways to go... but it's plays like that where he just needs to better in this his 4th season.

 

How many positve plays did he make in this game where you sit back and say.. wow, that wad a special play only a talented guy like Risto could make. I hate that the bad plays out number the better than average plays.

[MattPie]

I agree. That turnover happens to lots of defenseman in the NHL.

 

But does Ekblad make the same play? Kieth? Doughty? Lindholm? Weber? Suter? Burns? Jones? Ghost? Letang? Seabrook? Barrie? Karlsson? Vatanen? Subban? Josi? Hedman? should I keep going?

 

Goal against or not, it's a disappointing play, a turnover, but yeah he's still developing and has a ways to go... but it's plays like that where he just needs to better in this his 4th season.

 

How many positve plays did he make in this game where you sit back and say.. wow, that wad a special play only a talented guy like Risto could make. I hate that the bad plays out number the better than average plays.

 

I'm sure we could find tape of each of those guys making stupid mistakes. Hell, Matthews skated right by Karlsson on Wednesday, took the puck off him, and buried it. I guess Karlsson isn't worth the money too. At 0:40.

[qwksndmonster]

I agree. That turnover happens to lots of defenseman in the NHL.

 

But does Ekblad make the same play? Kieth? Doughty? Lindholm? Weber? Suter? Burns? Jones? Ghost? Letang? Seabrook? Barrie? Karlsson? Vatanen? Subban? Josi? Hedman? should I keep going?

 

Goal against or not, it's a disappointing play, a turnover, but yeah he's still developing and has a ways to go... but it's plays like that where he just needs to better in this his 4th season.

 

How many positve plays did he make in this game where you sit back and say.. wow, that wad a special play only a talented guy like Risto could make. I hate that the bad plays out number the better than average plays.

How about we don't over-analyze every shift Risto plays over the next 6 years?