Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

[TrueBlueGED]

Risto's defensive play contributed to them being one of the worst NHL teams of all time.    He was 19,20 years old, most young defenseman will struggle in that situation.    That doesn't mean he's a good player or a bad player, it just makes it more difficult to evaluate him, which is why I would look elsewhere if building a team.

 

...or agree to a reasonable extension before the deal expires... which is likely to happen if the team is winning and he's having success.   Hell, he's skating in camp without a contract!  Doesn't sound like the guy will bolt first chance he gets.

 

..or overpay him now and overpay him later by giving him a lucrative contract he never lives up to.. he feels the pressure to the #1 guy and never gets there, sticking the Sabres with an 8 year untradeable contract for a minus player who struggles in his own end.

 

I'd rather hedge my bets by signing him to a reasonable 5-6 year deal, or a 3 year bridge.   Let's find out what type of player he develops into before committing a large % of the salary cap to him for the next decade.

 

Here's what I don't understand about your position: a 5-6 year deal is fine, but an 8 year deal risks completely and hopelessly destroying his drive for greatness. I just don't understand the cut point there. 

[Thorner]

Risto's defensive play contributed to them being one of the worst NHL teams of all time.    He was 19,20 years old, most young defenseman will struggle in that situation.    That doesn't mean he's a good player or a bad player, it just makes it more difficult to evaluate him, which is why I would look elsewhere if building a team.

 

...or agree to a reasonable extension before the deal expires... which is likely to happen if the team is winning and he's having success.   Hell, he's skating in camp without a contract!  Doesn't sound like the guy will bolt first chance he gets.

 

..or overpay him now and overpay him later by giving him a lucrative contract he never lives up to.. he feels the pressure to the #1 guy and never gets there, sticking the Sabres with an 8 year untradeable contract for a minus player who struggles in his own end.

 

I'd rather hedge my bets by signing him to a reasonable 5-6 year deal, or a 3 year bridge.   Let's find out what type of player he develops into before committing a large % of the salary cap to him for the next decade.

 

The bolded is a good and interesting point. 

Here's what I don't understand about your position: a 5-6 year deal is fine, but an 8 year deal risks completely and hopelessly destroying his drive for greatness. I just don't understand the cut point there. 

 

This too. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Way back on Page 2 I said ... 8 years and $50 million ... I'm still there.

[Drunkard]

Risto's defensive play contributed to them being one of the worst NHL teams of all time.    He was 19,20 years old, most young defenseman will struggle in that situation.    That doesn't mean he's a good player or a bad player, it just makes it more difficult to evaluate him, which is why I would look elsewhere if building a team.

 

...or agree to a reasonable extension before the deal expires... which is likely to happen if the team is winning and he's having success.   Hell, he's skating in camp without a contract!  Doesn't sound like the guy will bolt first chance he gets.

 

..or overpay him now and overpay him later by giving him a lucrative contract he never lives up to.. he feels the pressure to the #1 guy and never gets there, sticking the Sabres with an 8 year untradeable contract for a minus player who struggles in his own end.

 

I'd rather hedge my bets by signing him to a reasonable 5-6 year deal, or a 3 year bridge.   Let's find out what type of player he develops into before committing a large % of the salary cap to him for the next decade.

 

Yes, there's less risk with a 5 or 6 year deal now, but if he pans out (like most of us and GMTM seem to be expecting him to) then he's got us over a barrel for his next contract. Imagine a 25 year old pending UFA who has been anchoring the top pair of a (hopefully) contending team. The guy will be able to name his price and by then we'll be up against the cap limit since I imagine Eichel and Reinhart will be in the middle of their long term big money deals. We'll be forced to watch him walk for top money from another team or we'll be in Chicago's position (possibly without the cups) of giving top money to a handful of guys and having to fill 1/2 to 2/3 of the roster with ELCs and bargain bin veterans.

[GASabresIUFAN]

How about lets never overpay him. Lets pay him what he is worth.

 

There are no guarantees. If you sign him long-term and he develops then yes you get a long-term bargain. However, what if he doesn't ever develop a 2 way game? Then you are stuck with a ton of money invested in a non productive asset. Take Tyler Myers, Cody Hodgson, and a certain extent Zach Bogosian for example. Anyone think Bogo would get a 5 million dollar per season deal if he were a UFA this past off-season? I certainly don't.

 

The really only solution at this point, unless one side caves, is to sign to a 2-3 year deal and give him time to develop properly into his role. Then when that deal is up and you have a 24/25 year old who is entering his prime, you sign him, if warranted, to a 7 year deal that covers the pinnacle of his career.

 

This BS of 'buying UFA years" is creating more bad contracts and doing more damage to teams cap structure then paying what players are worth.

 

I'm also not worried about the cap 2-3 years from now. Over the next couple of years, Gionta, Kane, Gorges, Ennis, Moulson, Franson and Kulikov's contracts will expire. Odds are that none of these players, except maybe Kulikov will be retained. That's plenty of money to retain Jack, Sam and an older and wiser Risto as most of those players will be replaced by guys like Nylander, Bailey, Fasching, Guhle and hopefully Baptiste and Borgen.

[Thorner]

Yes, there's less risk with a 5 or 6 year deal now, but if he pans out (like most of us and GMTM seem to be expecting him to) then he's got us over a barrel for his next contract. Imagine a 25 year old pending UFA who has been anchoring the top pair of a (hopefully) contending team. The guy will be able to name his price and by then we'll be up against the cap limit since I imagine Eichel and Reinhart will be in the middle of their long term big money deals. We'll be forced to watch him walk for top money from another team or we'll be in Chicago's position (possibly without the cups) of giving top money to a handful of guys and having to fill 1/2 to 2/3 of the roster with ELCs and bargain bin veterans.

 

Or just coming off their bridge deals, in 5 years  :devil:

Imagine if we gave Risto a 5 year deal, and had to bridge Eichel and Reinhart for some reason. They could all be up for their big deal at the same time. *shudder*

Edited October 3, 2016 by Thorny

[pi2000]

Here's what I don't understand about your position: a 5-6 year deal is fine, but an 8 year deal risks completely and hopelessly destroying his drive for greatness. I just don't understand the cut point there. 

 

Good point, a 5-6 year deal carries with it a risk of him becoming complacent, but much less so than an 8 year deal would IMO... a 5-6 year deal becomes tradeable in years 3-4 if the guy doesn't live up to it.    In 3-4 years I expect the Sabres to be contenders... I don't want them saddled by Risto's overpriced 8-year contract which you wouldn't be able to move for another 3-4 years at that point if he doesn't develop.   

 

I don't get why everyone is so concerned that he would leave as a UFA after a 5 year deal expired.    The premise there is that he develops into a top defenseman in the NHL.   Well... if that's the case, I'd expect BUF to be Cup contenders at that point... so if that's the case, why would he leave?     Even if he could get a little more money elsewhere, I would expect him to stay

 

That said, if Risto doesn't develop into the player we expect, then I don't think BUF is a contender, and then who cares if he walks away?    ..and you really think GMTM would allow that to happen without getting any return?     

Edited October 3, 2016 by pi2000

[Drunkard]

How about lets never overpay him. Lets pay him what he is worth.

 

There are no guarantees. If you sign him long-term and he develops then yes you get a long-term bargain. However, what if he doesn't ever develop a 2 way game? Then you are stuck with a ton of money invested in a non productive asset. Take Tyler Myers, Cody Hodgson, and a certain extent Zach Bogosian for example. Anyone think Bogo would get a 5 million dollar per season deal if he were a UFA this past off-season? I certainly don't.

 

The really only solution at this point, unless one side caves, is to sign to a 2-3 year deal and give him time to develop properly into his role. Then when that deal is up and you have a 24/25 year old who is entering his prime, you sign him, if warranted, to a 7 year deal that covers the pinnacle of his career.

 

This BS of 'buying UFA years" is creating more bad contracts and doing more damage to teams cap structure then paying what players are worth.

 

I'm also not worried about the cap 2-3 years from now. Over the next couple of years, Gionta, Kane, Gorges, Ennis, Moulson, Franson and Kulikov's contracts will expire. Odds are that none of these players, except maybe Kulikov will be retained. That's plenty of money to retain Jack, Sam and an older and wiser Risto as most of those players will be replaced by guys like Nylander, Bailey, Fasching, Guhle and hopefully Baptiste and Borgen.

 

I'm on board with a bridge deal or an 8 year deal, nothing in between though.

 

As for developing a 2 way game, I'm not sure what you mean. At 21 the guy has already scored 41 points so I think he has the offensive part covered plus he's already on our top pair having to defend against the Ovechkin's and the Crosby's of the NHL and he's holding his own (crappy fancy stats acknowledged). I imagine an 8 year deal would cost around $6-7.5 million per season. Even if he never blossoms into a true stud, there's a good chance he'll still be holding down the fort on our top pairing. So how much does a non stud top pair defender usually make? Maybe something in the $5 million range (I'm honestly not sure). That would put him as overpaid by $2 million which Toronto, Chicago, and other teams have shown it's not that hard to move if you're motivated to do so. Front load the contract as much as possible within the guidelines of the CBA and you'll also be able to entice the lower budget teams of the NHL to take him because they seem to love grabbing players whose actually pay is lower than their cap hit. And all of that is only necessary if our worst fears come true and Pi is actually right about him (chills).

Edited October 3, 2016 by Drunkard

[pi2000]

I'm on board with a bridge deal or an 8 year deal, nothing in between though.

 

As for developing a 2 way game, I'm not sure what you mean. At 21 the guy has already scored 41 points so I think he has the offensive part covered plus he's already on our top pair having to defend against the Ovechkin's and the Crosby's of the NHL and he's holding his own (crappy fancy stats acknowledged). I imagine an 8 year deal would cost around $6-7.5 million per season. Even if he never blossoms into a true stud, there's a good chance he'll still be holding down the fort on our top pairing. So how much does a non stud top pair defender usually make? Maybe something in the $5 million range (I'm honestly not sure). That would put him as overpaid by $2 million which Toronto, Chicago, and other teams have shown it's not that hard to move if you're motivated to do so. Front load the contract as much as possible within the guidelines of the CBA and you'll also be able to entice the lower budget teams of the NHL to take him because they seem to love grabbing players whose actually pay is lower than their cap hit. And all of that is only necessary if our worst fears come true and Pi is actually right about him (chills).

 

For the record, with the right deal in place, I expect him to continue to develop into a legit top 4 guy... I'd give him a 33% chance of becoming a true top pairing guy within 4-5 years.

[Randall Flagg]

For the record, with the right deal in place, I expect him to continue to develop into a legit top 4 guy... I'd give him a 33% chance of becoming a true top pairing guy within 4-5 years.

You think the contract's parameters are what will decide his development fate?

[Taro T]

Risto's defensive play contributed to them being one of the worst NHL teams of all time.    He was 19,20 years old, most young defenseman will struggle in that situation.    That doesn't mean he's a good player or a bad player, it just makes it more difficult to evaluate him, which is why I would look elsewhere if building a team.

 

...or agree to a reasonable extension before the deal expires... which is likely to happen if the team is winning and he's having success.   Hell, he's skating in camp without a contract!  Doesn't sound like the guy will bolt first chance he gets.

 

..or overpay him now and overpay him later by giving him a lucrative contract he never lives up to.. he feels the pressure to the #1 guy and never gets there, sticking the Sabres with an 8 year untradeable contract for a minus player who struggles in his own end.

 

I'd rather hedge my bets by signing him to a reasonable 5-6 year deal, or a 3 year bridge.   Let's find out what type of player he develops into before committing a large % of the salary cap to him for the next decade.

Sorry, not buying that premise. Princess Phaneuf showed that there is no such thing as an untradeable D-man contract.

 

Forwards, it's dicier, but if Arizona will take Datsyuk's contract minus him, even the untradeable Hodgson contract is a black swan. They're out there but very rare. (Unfortunately, Moulson's contract is also likely a black swan.)

[StuckinFL]

How about lets never overpay him. Lets pay him what he is worth.

 

There are no guarantees. If you sign him long-term and he develops then yes you get a long-term bargain. However, what if he doesn't ever develop a 2 way game? Then you are stuck with a ton of money invested in a non productive asset. Take Tyler Myers, Cody Hodgson, and a certain extent Zach Bogosian for example. Anyone think Bogo would get a 5 million dollar per season deal if he were a UFA this past off-season? I certainly don't.

 

The really only solution at this point, unless one side caves, is to sign to a 2-3 year deal and give him time to develop properly into his role. Then when that deal is up and you have a 24/25 year old who is entering his prime, you sign him, if warranted, to a 7 year deal that covers the pinnacle of his career.

 

This BS of 'buying UFA years" is creating more bad contracts and doing more damage to teams cap structure then paying what players are worth.

 

I'm also not worried about the cap 2-3 years from now. Over the next couple of years, Gionta, Kane, Gorges, Ennis, Moulson, Franson and Kulikov's contracts will expire. Odds are that none of these players, except maybe Kulikov will be retained. That's plenty of money to retain Jack, Sam and an older and wiser Risto as most of those players will be replaced by guys like Nylander, Bailey, Fasching, Guhle and hopefully Baptiste and Borgen.

Couldn't have said it better...

[pi2000]

You think the contract's parameters are what will decide his development fate?

 

Not entirely, but to pretend it will have no impact whatsoever is simply being naive.

[Randall Flagg]

Not entirely, but to pretend it will have no impact whatsoever is simply being naive.

Its impact will be completely negligible. If he doesn't develop as expected, it will be due to other reasons that will be easy to spot, like poor decision-making, or an inability to mentally process the game at a level we need him to.

[pi2000]

Its impact will be completely negligible. If he doesn't develop as expected, it will be due to other reasons that will be easy to spot, like poor decision-making, or an inability to mentally process the game at a level we need him to.

 

Let me put it this way.    Which contract would he be more likely to continue his upward trend....

 

- 8 yrs / $56mil 

- 3 yrs / $15mil 

 

...I don't see any circumstance where an 8-year deal could help his development vs a shorter deal.

[MattPie]

Let me put it this way.    Which contract would he be more likely to continue his upward trend....

 

- 8 yrs / $56mil 

- 3 yrs / $15mil 

 

...I don't see any circumstance where an 8-year deal could help his development vs a shorter deal.

 

I understand what you're saying, even if I don't think there has been anything in Risto's work ethic to think that he's going to go all Stafford once he gets a fat deal. The question is, are you prepared to pay him $8.8M/year (inflation and all) starting in 2020 if he does progress to being a top-2 D? That 2.8M/yr (based on a 8*$6M signed today) could be the difference between someone like Matt Ellis being the Sabres 4th line center and someone like Paul Gaustad (who obviously has flaws, but is better than Ellis; those two are familiar examples of the trickle down effect of waiting until Risto can expect a fatter contract).

 

Note: I'm just throwing names and money around; the details aren't important. The concept is, if you lock him up now you reduce the risk that in 4 years you have to start dumping depth to fit his bigger paycheck.

[Taro T]

I understand what you're saying, even if I don't think there has been anything in Risto's work ethic to think that he's going to go all Stafford once he gets a fat deal. The question is, are you prepared to pay him $8.8M/year (inflation and all) starting in 2020 if he does progress to being a top-2 D? That 2.8M/yr (based on a 8*$6M signed today) could be the difference between someone like Matt Ellis being the Sabres 4th line center and someone like Paul Gaustad (who obviously has flaws, but is better than Ellis; those two are familiar examples of the trickle down effect of waiting until Risto can expect a fatter contract).

 

Note: I'm just throwing names and money around; the details aren't important. The concept is, if you lock him up now you reduce the risk that in 4 years you have to start dumping depth to fit his bigger paycheck.

Agreed. And if Risto isn't worth $6/yr in a couple of seasons, the Sabres are probably looking other directions for their top D-man and are dealing w/ issues of shoring up the D regardless of his contract.

 

If he is worth that or more likely more than that (as I suspect he will be) then the Sabres are looking at having a young top pairing D-man (#3 D-man at worst) on a value contract when they have to start paying Sam & Jack closer to what they're worth & are looking for ways to keep the window open for as long as possible. Having your #1 or 2 on a value contract for 6 more years will go a long way to keeping that window open.

 

The downsides to possibly overpaying him just don't look to be nearly as big as the upside to possibly underpaying him for a VERYlong time.

[Huckleberry]

Or just coming off their bridge deals, in 5 years  :devil:

Imagine if we gave Risto a 5 year deal, and had to bridge Eichel and Reinhart for some reason. They could all be up for their big deal at the same time. *shudder*

 

Hedman and Stamkos singed the same year at a discount, maybe they will to :p

[GASabresIUFAN]

Why does everyone here who wants Risto signed long-term continue to ignore the cautionary tales of Myers and Bogo. Both were signed to big money deals buying UFA years on the promise of future development. While both are servicable NHL D, neither is a top line player on a good team, neither are worth the 5+ million they are paid and neither has improved as a player since signing their big money deals.

 

Neither has ever truly developed into good defensemen in their own zone (although Myers is better then Bogo) and especially in Myers case, after an intial burst of offense both have settled into decent but not stellar offensive defensemen. Myers burst on the scene with 48 points and +13 and a 49 corsi at age 19 and we all thought we had the next Chara. His numbers decreased annually after that. 37 pts the next season, then 23, then 16 pace (lockout season) then 22 pts and a -26 and a 43.9 corsi in his last full season in Buffalo. Since then he has had a 28 and 27 pt seasons, been a plus player with a 50+ corsi for WPG. They got the better of the deal so far, but not 5.5 million worth.

 

Bogo is even worse. His best season is 30 pts -3 and a 49.8 corsi at age 21. Last season was his best since then with 24 pts, -11 and a 46.6 corsi.

 

While i was thrilled with Risto's 41 pt season, I'm not ready to crown him the next great thing, especially after the diminished play in hte second half. I've seen to many examples like Bogo and Myers to sign him to a big contract on the promise of future development.

 

Can you imagine the discussions on this board if Murray signs him to a 6 year $36 million deal and Risto slips to Bogo type numbers?

 

Also the savings from a long-term deal aren't the significant when you consider long-term cap hikes. My suggestions is 2 years 8 million, and then if he does blossom into a true great we re-sign him to $8 mill per for 7 years. The requested contract according to media reports is around 6yr for $36. (He'll demand at least $8 mill after that if he blossoms). My suggestion only costs $4 mil more over the first 6 years, but will save $4 mill in the first 2 years, giving GMTM more flexability in the short-term to add players at the deadline (for example) or make other moves and then allow cap increases to soak up the future pay hike.

[pi2000]

I understand what you're saying, even if I don't think there has been anything in Risto's work ethic to think that he's going to go all Stafford once he gets a fat deal. The question is, are you prepared to pay him $8.8M/year (inflation and all) starting in 2020 if he does progress to being a top-2 D? That 2.8M/yr (based on a 8*$6M signed today) could be the difference between someone like Matt Ellis being the Sabres 4th line center and someone like Paul Gaustad (who obviously has flaws, but is better than Ellis; those two are familiar examples of the trickle down effect of waiting until Risto can expect a fatter contract).

 

Note: I'm just throwing names and money around; the details aren't important. The concept is, if you lock him up now you reduce the risk that in 4 years you have to start dumping depth to fit his bigger paycheck.

 

I'm prepared to pay him whatever he is worth in 2020.   If you sign him to a 5 year deal and he improves by leaps and bounds the next 2-3 years, you can begin negotiations on an extension that fits within the teams cap situation.    The money to pay a top-2 defenseman will be there, and from all we've seen and heard, he wants to be in Buffalo.      If I'm Risto, and I believe strongly in my ability, I don't accept anything less than $6.5-7mil for a long term deal at this point in time.   There is no way GMTM is offering that much money, nor should he.     Why would Risto accept anything less than $6mil/yr for an 8-year deal when he could be earning $8mil/yr as soon as 3 years from now?   A 5-year deal is a compromise between 8 and a bridge, which works nicely for both parties involved... stop getting your panties in a bunch about him gaining UFA status after the deal... it won't ever get to that point unless he regresses.   

[TrueBlueGED]

In a cap world, sustaining success hitting on some bargain contracts. One way to get a bargain is to bet on development. Will it always work? Nope, and Myers and Bogosian are examples of that. But it also works. Roman Josi is making probably half of what he would if he signed a contract after emerging as the best defenseman in Nashville. That's a huge win for Nashville. And going bridge to "prove it" can cost a team big time. See: PK Subban.

 

Paying everyone market value makes it nearly impossible to put together a championship roster as it necessitates hitting on all of your cheap help because you're not getting any value out of your vets. Besides, I think the downside of going long term on Risto is being greatly overstated. Risto right now is a top-4 Dman, and would be in the top-3 for any team, which puts him around the $5 million mark. Even if he ends up at $6 million and doesn't progress, that's still merely an inefficient contract, not a cap crippler. It's only crippling if he gets worse. What do you think the chance of that happening is?

[Thorner]

In a cap world, sustaining success hitting on some bargain contracts. One way to get a bargain is to bet on development. Will it always work? Nope, and Myers and Bogosian are examples of that. But it also works. Roman Josi is making probably half of what he would if he signed a contract after emerging as the best defenseman in Nashville. That's a huge win for Nashville. And going bridge to "prove it" can cost a team big time. See: PK Subban.

Paying everyone market value makes it nearly impossible to put together a championship roster as it necessitates hitting on all of your cheap help because you're not getting any value out of your vets. Besides, I think the downside of going long term on Risto is being greatly overstated. Risto right now is a top-4 Dman, and would be in the top-3 for any team, which puts him around the $5 million mark. Even if he ends up at $6 million and doesn't progress, that's still merely an inefficient contract, not a cap crippler. It's only crippling if he gets worse. What do you think the chance of that happening is?

Excellent. A team is going to HAVE to hit on a few bargain deals, to become a true cup contender, if we didn't get one in Risto, we'd have to get one somewhere else. Risto is as good a player any we have to "bet on", I'd say.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Thorny

[Neo]

In a cap world, sustaining success hitting on some bargain contracts. One way to get a bargain is to bet on development. Will it always work? Nope, and Myers and Bogosian are examples of that. But it also works. Roman Josi is making probably half of what he would if he signed a contract after emerging as the best defenseman in Nashville. That's a huge win for Nashville. And going bridge to "prove it" can cost a team big time. See: PK Subban.

Paying everyone market value makes it nearly impossible to put together a championship roster as it necessitates hitting on all of your cheap help because you're not getting any value out of your vets. Besides, I think the downside of going long term on Risto is being greatly overstated. Risto right now is a top-4 Dman, and would be in the top-3 for any team, which puts him around the $5 million mark. Even if he ends up at $6 million and doesn't progress, that's still merely an inefficient contract, not a cap crippler. It's only crippling if he gets worse. What do you think the chance of that happening is?

I've enjoyed this back and forth. This is so complete ...

[pi2000]

In a cap world, sustaining success hitting on some bargain contracts. One way to get a bargain is to bet on development. Will it always work? Nope, and Myers and Bogosian are examples of that. But it also works. Roman Josi is making probably half of what he would if he signed a contract after emerging as the best defenseman in Nashville. That's a huge win for Nashville. And going bridge to "prove it" can cost a team big time. See: PK Subban.

 

Paying everyone market value makes it nearly impossible to put together a championship roster as it necessitates hitting on all of your cheap help because you're not getting any value out of your vets. Besides, I think the downside of going long term on Risto is being greatly overstated. Risto right now is a top-4 Dman, and would be in the top-3 for any team, which puts him around the $5 million mark. Even if he ends up at $6 million and doesn't progress, that's still merely an inefficient contract, not a cap crippler. It's only crippling if he gets worse. What do you think the chance of that happening is?

 

So is Risto a Josi, or a Myers/Bogosian?   I don't think anybody truly knows the answer to that... but I do know this.    If you give him 8-years, you're pushing all your chips into the middle of the table... pre-flop.     If you give him a shorter deal, even a bridge, you're simply calling the big blind to see the flop... and there's no reason you can't still go all-in on the river.   I'd say Risto is comparable to suited connectors or a small pocket pair... yes, those are nice starting hands, but you don't go all-in pre-flop unless you're heads up and down to a few big blinds.    The Sabres are not at that point yet, they're just warming up their seat at the table... with (hopefully) many hands to play, let them see a few flops and build a nice chip stack before pushing all-in.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Bargain contracts can come in forms other then just hitting on a developing player with a long-term deal. Mccabe's 3 year bridge deal, ELC's for Jack and Sam are just a couple of other examples of bargain deals. Other type of bargains are signing some vets with tread left on the tire. Building a championship team means paying the right players, developing kids and making smart veteran acquisitions to fill in the holes.

 

Signing the wrong players, but internally and externally, can kill a franchise. Aka Leino, Hodgson, Ehrhoff, and Myers.