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Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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Brawndo Hall of Famer

Brawndo

Posted
Posted

Andrew Peters on Hockey Hotline stated this AM that a source told him the Sabres Offer on the table is 6 years 4.5 Million per. He did also say sources can be wrong as a disclaimer. That's about 1.5-2 million too low

Derrico First Liner

Derrico

Posted
Posted

Andrew Peters on Hockey Hotline stated this AM that a source told him the Sabres Offer on the table is 6 years 4.5 Million per. He did also say sources can be wrong as a disclaimer. That's about 1.5-2 million too low

Disagree.  I think it's about 1 million too low.  I thought Murray was offering around $5 and Risto wanted $6-$6.5.  Who knows the truth but if this is the case Murray is lowballing.

That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

Posted
Posted

Disagree.  I think it's about 1 million too low.  I thought Murray was offering around $5 and Risto wanted $6-$6.5.  Who knows the truth but if this is the case Murray is lowballing.

 

I suspect Peters is getting some slightly skewed misinformation - and that whoever is sharing it is doing it by design.

 

I appreciate that GM TM is trying to get a deal done that is good for the club. And I'm confident this won't drag on too much longer.

pi2000 First Liner

pi2000

Posted
Posted

Andrew Peters on Hockey Hotline stated this AM that a source told him the Sabres Offer on the table is 6 years 4.5 Million per. He did also say sources can be wrong as a disclaimer. That's about 1.5-2 million too low

 

bingo

Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted

What about performance based bonuses? Start at 5 with potential for 7 per if he goes nuts (60 pts, 20 goal, etc)

  

I've always been a fan of incentive laden contracts. I suspect Risto would make it a point to earn them, too, based on his work ethic.

Unfortunately, since they went to a cap, 2nd contracts can't have performance bonuses.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

I suspect Peters is getting some slightly skewed misinformation - and that whoever is sharing it is doing it by design.

 

I appreciate that GM TM is trying to get a deal done that is good for the club. And I'm confident this won't drag on too much longer.

Yea, what Peters said looks to me like an opening offer, not something the team offers after months of negotiations.

That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

Posted
Posted

Andrew Peters on Hockey Hotline stated this AM that a source told him the Sabres Offer on the table is 6 years 4.5 Million per. He did also say sources can be wrong as a disclaimer. That's about 1.5-2 million too low

bingo

 

haha - respect, sir.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

GMTM on Risto talks ...

 

GMTM- "We've been talking for a long time, they have an arguement, and we have an arguement, there is no timeline."

 

GMTM- "We are not doing this to gain an upper hand. He was going to skate somewhere anyways. He is a hardworking, diligent player."

 

GMTM- "It's not our intention to get him in here and start to lament that he doesn't have a contract."

 

GMTM- "We're open to listening to what their needs are, we're open to a short-term deal, a bridge deal, a long-term deal."

 

GMTM- "As a pessimistic guy I have a lot of faith in people do the right thing. I want to the right thing for our organization."

 

GMTM- "I think he's a very good young player. With more games, more maturity, he's going to become a really poised player."

 

GMTM- "Somebody has to play tough minutes against tough players. That's probably Risto."

 

GMTM on Ristolainen's analytics- "I read it. I see it. I don't agree with it. It's not just black and white."

 

 

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

A lot of people in the analytics community ignore strength of opposition. Which isn't totally unreasonable because if your stats are trash against the best players and that's all you're going to play against then it's totally irrelevant.

 

But, I still think Risto is going to be fine.

Edited by Hoss
inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

Posted
Posted

They need to get this done yesterday. The thought of this team starting the season without him is imponderable. Our defense is not that great with Risto, it might be terrible without him

It is. I think any injury will expose this teams lack of defensive depth.

bob_sauve28 All Star

bob_sauve28

Posted
Posted

It is. I think any injury will expose this teams lack of defensive depth.

The only good thing I can see is that perhaps we can swap one of our budding young forwards for a serviceable defenseman, but with d men in short supply, that is somewhat of a long shot

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

A lot of people in the analytics community ignore strength of opposition. Which isn't totally unreasonable because if your stats are trash against the best players and that's all you're going to play against then it's totally irrelevant.

 

But, I still think Risto is going to be fine.

It's not getting ignored, it's that the research shows it's not that big of a deal over the course of the season. On a shift-by-shift basis QoC is very important for performance, but over a full season there's not enough variation in it between players to explain performance differences between those players to any meaningful degree. Maybe it's a problem with the stats (and before anyone says it, the smart critics use TOI QoC, not Corsi), but it's not being ignored.

 

Where I think the stats people are missing the boat on Risto is underestimating the effect of playing with Gorges, and playing for Ron Rolston and Ted Nolan (since many of the stats articles are using 3 years of data) on arguably the two worst teams of the modern era. And hell, even Bylsma didn't coach a possession-friendly system last year and awful possession players like Deslauriers were still skating a regular shift, Kane was flinging poo at the net and killing zone time, etc.

 

All that said, all of the top defenders in the league for have positive possession numbers, so with the team ready to compete and more experienced across the board, you'd hope Risto's numbers improve. I expect them to. But if they don't in the next year or two, it's cause for concern for exactly how good Risto will be. The only top defenseman with "poor analytics" I can think of is Shea Weber. All the rest pass both eye and stats tests.

Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted

It's not getting ignored, it's that the research shows it's not that big of a deal over the course of the season. On a shift-by-shift basis QoC is very important for performance, but over a full season there's not enough variation in it between players to explain performance differences between those players to any meaningful degree. Maybe it's a problem with the stats (and before anyone says it, the smart critics use TOI QoC, not Corsi), but it's not being ignored.

Where I think the stats people are missing the boat on Risto is underestimating the effect of playing with Gorges, and playing for Ron Rolston and Ted Nolan (since many of the stats articles are using 3 years of data) on arguably the two worst teams of the modern era. And hell, even Bylsma didn't coach a possession-friendly system last year and awful possession players like Deslauriers were still skating a regular shift, Kane was flinging poo at the net and killing zone time, etc.

All that said, all of the top defenders in the league for have positive possession numbers, so with the team ready to compete and more experienced across the board, you'd hope Risto's numbers improve. I expect them to. But if they don't in the next year or two, it's cause for concern for exactly how good Risto will be. The only top defenseman with "poor analytics" I can think of is Shea Weber. All the rest pass both eye and stats tests.

As you alluded to, it also gets lost in who they're on the ice with oftentimes.

 

Stats lovers loved to point out how Eichel's stats were better when Pysyk was on the ice. No schlitz. Because when Pysyk was was the ice so was the other team's 4th liners. Shocking that Jack did better against them.

 

I'd fully expect Risto's advanced stats to improve this year simply by having a stronger partner (presuming Kulikov didn't break his tailbone yesterday). As you'd pointed out, if they don't, then we might be at a point to worry about him; but until they don't, the eye test says they will. Lock him up for 8. If TO could move princess Phaneuf, there is no truly unmovable bad contract. And the odds of an 8x6 being a steal in 4 is much higher than it being an albatros.

rakish Third Liner

rakish

Posted
Posted

That seems really low for him IMO

 

You're probably right, what I'm trying to say is that they're going to get off the 6 year term and go to a 2 year term, rather than to hold out into the season

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

Posted
Posted

You're probably right, what I'm trying to say is that they're going to get off the 6 year term and go to a 2 year term, rather than to hold out into the season

I could see the 2 year term happening. I'm not a fan of it though, he's only going g to cost more in 2 years
Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted

I expect Risto to sign for 2 years, 3.5 per, and they will revisit this question in 2 years.

Very likely outcome (though I'd expect more like $3.75-4 per) at this point. Tis a shame as I expect that to bite them hard on the next contract's AAV.

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

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