Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

[Randall Flagg]

So why not give every RFA on the team 8 year deals? No downside because you can just trade them right? Lock them up before they blossom?

Correct. Every single RFA has shown what Risto has and shares his upside. Totally what logically follows from doing what Eleven is arguing for.

[pi2000]

Correct. Every single RFA has shown what Risto has and shares his upside. Totally what logically follows from doing what Eleven is arguing for.

 

Risto has shown what exactly?   He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers.    Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

[LGR4GM]

Risto has shown what exactly?   He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers.    Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

1) addressed the -68

2) addressed the 200 games thing

3) addressed the Myers v. Ristolainen's offense thing.

 

You have chosen to basically ignore all of those and instead want to use hyperbole like we should sign all RFA's to 8 year deals.

[WildCard]

Risto has shown what exactly? He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers. Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

God dammit man stop using +/- ! Edited September 19, 2016 by WildCard

[Randall Flagg]

Risto has shown what exactly?   He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers.    Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

You give no context at all, man. I've already said this: In a vacuum, sure, Myers looks to have been better. But you and I and everyone else on this forum knows plus minus is a bum stat, that Tyler Myers was protected by a very good defenseman on a team with the Vezina winner and which won a division title, while Risto played with guys like Andrej Meszaros and John Scott on teams intentionally designed to be the worst the NHL has seen in decades. You can do better than taking stats from those guys, without those situations in context, and slapping them next to each other. I know you're aware that it's more complicated than that.

 

I also know that you know that what Eleven said doesn't mean "therefore you have to give 8 years to Foligno, Larsson, Deslauriers, and every RFA we have." You know this is a bad conclusion to draw from what he said. Hyperbole is not a good way to argue.

 

Ristolainen was top 20 in scoring from the defense, and is the youngest of any of the players in the top 20. Sure, something can go wrong and he can flop around like Myers did, but like Eleven said, even Myers was very easy to get rid of. Risto was given more minutes against tougher competition with worse zone starts than anyone his age or younger, book it. He made plenty of 21 year old defenseman mistakes, and also had plenty of stretches where he looked incredible. In EVERY CONTRACT SITUATION EVER you need to do some extrapolating, make some guesses, hedge your bets. Giving Ristolainen 8 years is not going over any line with this stuff. PK Subban made plenty of mistakes while showing plenty of flash, got a bridge deal, and burned Montreal for it when that ended. Tyler Myers got a big deal, disappointed, and got us an asset. 

 

And sure, maybe there's a legitimate argument for 6 years over 8. But we have to remember that there are two sides negotiating here. We can't always get everything we want in a contract. To pull a card from your exaggeration booklet there, "why not just sign Eichel and Reinhart and Risto to long term deals at the veteran minimum?"

 

 

[Hank]

If I'm risto I don't for anything less than 6.5 x 8. Dont like it, trade me.

[Eleven]

So why not give every RFA on the team 8 year deals?    No downside because you can just trade them right?    Lock them up before they blossom?

Flagg has this.  And he's right.  Risto isn't GIrgensons.

[LGR4GM]

If I'm risto I don't for anything less than 6.5 x 8. Dont like it, trade me.

That wouldn't be negotiating in good faith.

 

Aaron Ekblad signed an extension worth 7.5mil per year that does not start until next season. Ekblad is currently better than Rasmus. Seth Jones got 5.4million so Rasmus should fall somewhere in between those 2 numbers. I wouldn't hate him at 6.5 but I am hoping that 5.5-6 does it. Hard to tell. The important part though is the end you wrote "don't like it, trade me". If the Sabres don't like it, all they have to do is nothing. Rasmus can't play in the NHL unless he signs the deal. He has less leverage than GMTM.  Of course I think all things are fine and once the World Cup ends Murray will get this deal banged out.

[Hank]

He has less leverage than GMTM.

.

 

I disagree. You don't pay athletes for past performance, you pay them based on potential and projected future performance. His valu will be through the roof after the World Cup, I think it will cost significantly more to sign him after than it would have a month ago. I think Risto has plenty of leverage, especially when you factor in how weak the D will be without him. Plus there's always the threat of him going home to the KHL for more money the longer this drags out.

[WildCard]

.

 

I disagree. You don't pay athletes for past performance, you pay them based on potential and projected future performance. His valu will be through the roof after the World Cup, I think it will cost significantly more to sign him after than it would have a month ago. I think Risto has plenty of leverage, especially when you factor in how weak the D will be without him. Plus there's always the threat of him going home to the KHL for more money the longer this drags out.

There are so many cases of athletes paid on past performances. More so than those paid on potential I'd say

[dudacek]

I seriously doubt the KHL is in Risto's plans, or that anyone there would better the Sabres offer already on the table.

This will get done.

[pi2000]

I get the point about the plus minus is not a perfect stat and he's been on some bad teams and such. Yeah, but still when you commit $50mil to a guy you need to have something other than "he has potential" to hang your hat on. I dont care how bad the team is around you, if you're a -68 in less than 200 games, you have to shoulder some of the blame.

 

Guys with potential who have a poor statistical history should not get 8 year deals. That's absurd IMO, maybe it's just me, maybe thats just the modern NHL? I don't know. 8 year deals are for guys who have a proven track record of excellence.

 

Don't get me wrong I really like Risto as a PROSPECT, he's not yet a bona fide supestar, and by giving him that type of deal this early in his career may take away his incentive to fulfill his potential.

Edited September 20, 2016 by pi2000

[thewookie1]

I get the point about the plus minus is not a perfect stat and he's been on some bad teams and such. Yeah, but still when you commit $50mil to a guy you need to have something other than "he has potential" to hang your hat on. I dont care how bad the team is around you, if you're a -68 in less than 200 games, you have to shoulder some of the blame.

 

Guys with potential who have a poor statistical history should not get 8 year deals. That's absurd IMO, maybe it's just me, maybe thats just the modern NHL? I don't know. 8 year deals are for guys who have a proven track record of excellence.

 

Don't get me wrong I really like Risto as a PROSPECT, he's not yet a bona fide supestar, and by giving him that type of deal this early in his career may take away his incentive to fulfill his potential.

 

You have an unhealthy obsession with incentive. Remember that Myers had shown work ethics problems immediately after his rookie season by coming in out of shape. Zadorov would have been in the same camp based on his past. Risto did the opposite, after playing half and half his first year he picked up good habits from AHL teachers, stop eating junk food, worked off any extra fat and became leaner and meaner going into his second year. And continued into his third year. That kind of work ethic is rarely something you can fake, He's also the guy who at 20 confronted GMTM about the tank because he hates losing that much. 

[pi2000]

You have an unhealthy obsession with incentive. Remember that Myers had shown work ethics problems immediately after his rookie season by coming in out of shape. Zadorov would have been in the same camp based on his past. Risto did the opposite, after playing half and half his first year he picked up good habits from AHL teachers, stop eating junk food, worked off any extra fat and became leaner and meaner going into his second year. And continued into his third year. That kind of work ethic is rarely something you can fake, He's also the guy who at 20 confronted GMTM about the tank because he hates losing that much.

That's all fantastic stuff, lets not take that away by giving him a career contract at this point. I want to see him contiue to improve and maximize his potential. Give him 5 now, then 8 later if he's worth it... right noe he isn't IMO.

[Huckleberry]

Giving him a 5 year contract is just dumb, you either go short 3 years or go full 8 years.

 

I'd give him 8x6.5 because in 2 years that might already be a bargain.

Edited September 20, 2016 by Huckleberry

[Weave]

 I don't know. 8 year deals are for guys who have a proven track record of excellence.

 

 

Guys with proven track records don't have 8 years left in their careers.

[Eleven]

Guys with proven track records don't have 8 years left in their careers.

 

Yep.  Even Stamkos will be 35 by the time his new deal ends.  I doubt he'll be at the same pace.

[rakish]

A couple months ago I put together a chart comparing the career trajectory of a handful of defensemen. I added Risto to give you an idea where he sits in relation to the others.

[LGR4GM]

.

 

I disagree. You don't pay athletes for past performance, you pay them based on potential and projected future performance. His valu will be through the roof after the World Cup, I think it will cost significantly more to sign him after than it would have a month ago. I think Risto has plenty of leverage, especially when you factor in how weak the D will be without him. Plus there's always the threat of him going home to the KHL for more money the longer this drags out.

He is a RFA who can't play a single NHL minute without a contract in Buffalo where he has professed he wants to play. He has almost no leverage other than how good he is. Will he ask for more after a great World Cup showing, maybe, but GMTM also gets to see more of Risto so maybe that makes him more comfortable giving him more. The Def is weak without him but he is a RFA, he is an RFA, Ristolainen is an RFA. The kid literally cannot play in the NHL without a Sabres Contract and that basically removes a ton of his leverage.  

 

I honestly just laughed at the bolded.  He is a Finnish hockey player going "home" to play in the KHL which is predominately a Russian league. That doesn't even make sense. In addition the ruble (sp?) is in the tank compared to the dollar right now, doubt he wants to go to the KHL and doubt they could/would pay him more money.

That's all fantastic stuff, lets not take that away by giving him a career contract at this point. I want to see him contiue to improve and maximize his potential. Give him 5 now, then 8 later if he's worth it... right noe he isn't IMO.

5 years is the worst contract length you can give him. I will repeat this to you until it sinks in. Having a 28 year old Rasmus with the leverage of UFA because you didn't want to sign him to 3years or 8years makes you a foolish GM. Rasmus would have to be hot garbage for you not to get burned and I just don't see that. 

I get the point about the plus minus is not a perfect stat and he's been on some bad teams and such. Yeah, but still when you commit $50mil to a guy you need to have something other than "he has potential" to hang your hat on. I dont care how bad the team is around you, if you're a -68 in less than 200 games, you have to shoulder some of the blame.

 

Guys with potential who have a poor statistical history should not get 8 year deals. That's absurd IMO, maybe it's just me, maybe thats just the modern NHL? I don't know. 8 year deals are for guys who have a proven track record of excellence.

 

Don't get me wrong I really like Risto as a PROSPECT, he's not yet a bona fide supestar, and by giving him that type of deal this early in his career may take away his incentive to fulfill his potential.

He doesn't have poor stats history. You just have hung on to the +/- thing forever because? +/- at best is a team metric. Bad teams have higher - and good teams have higher +

[Hank]

Helsinki has a team in the KHL. So yes, he could go "home" to play there. It's not a big threat but it's there. No one can force Risto to sign a deal below market valu, he has plenty of leverage. The Sabres need him more than he needs the Sabres. There are plenty of teams that will pay him. He can afford to sit and wait.

[That Aud Smell]

Risto has shown what exactly?   He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers.    Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

God dammit man stop using +/- !

 

Got to it before I could.

 

That said, I think there's at least some potential downside to a long-term deal.

 

But I'm of a mind with Eleven: If he starts to regress, there will be a team (or teams) that will be a nice blend of (1) needing that contract to get to the floor and (2) liking the idea of taking on a rehab project for a guy who had really showed something once upon a time.

 

You have an unhealthy obsession with incentive. Remember that Myers had shown work ethics problems immediately after his rookie season by coming in out of shape. Zadorov would have been in the same camp based on his past. Risto did the opposite, after playing half and half his first year he picked up good habits from AHL teachers, stop eating junk food, worked off any extra fat and became leaner and meaner going into his second year. And continued into his third year. That kind of work ethic is rarely something you can fake, He's also the guy who at 20 confronted GMTM about the tank because he hates losing that much. 

 

These really are excellent points. Maybe it's recency bias, but just looking at Risto -- doesn't he just pop as fundamentally different than Myers? And Zadorov, for that matter? He's got that healthy hate for losing -- hates losing puck battles, shifts, games.

 

I look forward to having him in the Sabres' top 2 for the next 10+ years. Getting him a partner seems to be the trick.

That's all fantastic stuff, lets not take that away by giving him a career contract at this point. I want to see him contiue to improve and maximize his potential. Give him 5 now, then 8 later if he's worth it... right noe he isn't IMO.

 

I agree with those who are saying that you're unduly focused on intangible ideas like earning the big deal, etc. From an objective asset-management standpoint, I agree that there's much less downside to giving him 7 or 8 years than there is to giving him 4 or 5.

[LGR4GM]

Helsinki has a team in the KHL. So yes, he could go "home" to play there. It's not a big threat but it's there. No one can force Risto to sign a deal below market valu, he has plenty of leverage. The Sabres need him more than he needs the Sabres. There are plenty of teams that will pay him. He can afford to sit and wait.

You are right, no one can force him to sign a contract but no, he needs the Sabres. He can't play in the NHL without a contract from Buffalo. What other teams will pay him the money he can get in Buffalo? No other NHL team can. The Finnish league from what I can tell pays less. The KHL has major money issues because of the ruble. Star KHL guys get what? Judging from my research about 4-6million. So lets compare... 4-6million rubles or 4-6million dollars. He would need a contract worth 200million rubles to get the equivalent in american dollars. Seems unlikely.  

 

His leverage is he is a good player who Buffalo does need. Murray's leverage is he owns Risto's RFA rights and will still give him a fair deal. Personally I think the issue isn't over $$$ but over term. I think Murray and Rasmus' agent are on different sides of the 3 v 8 year debate.

[3putt]

You are right, no one can force him to sign a contract but no, he needs the Sabres. He can't play in the NHL without a contract from Buffalo. What other teams will pay him the money he can get in Buffalo? No other NHL team can. The Finnish league from what I can tell pays less. The KHL has major money issues because of the ruble. Star KHL guys get what? Judging from my research about 4-6million. So lets compare... 4-6million rubles or 4-6million dollars. He would need a contract worth 200million rubles to get the equivalent in american dollars. Seems unlikely.  

 

His leverage is he is a good player who Buffalo does need. Murray's leverage is he owns Risto's RFA rights and will still give him a fair deal. Personally I think the issue isn't over $$$ but over term. I think Murray and Rasmus' agent are on different sides of the 3 v 8 year debate.

Agreed.  

I also think Liut is looking to make any deal lockout proof with substantial percentage of the deal in bonuses that are not contingent on there being an on ice season. All the recent deals seem to have that which makes the contract tougher to move.

[pi2000]

You are right, no one can force him to sign a contract but no, he needs the Sabres. He can't play in the NHL without a contract from Buffalo. What other teams will pay him the money he can get in Buffalo? No other NHL team can. The Finnish league from what I can tell pays less. The KHL has major money issues because of the ruble. Star KHL guys get what? Judging from my research about 4-6million. So lets compare... 4-6million rubles or 4-6million dollars. He would need a contract worth 200million rubles to get the equivalent in american dollars. Seems unlikely.  

 

His leverage is he is a good player who Buffalo does need. Murray's leverage is he owns Risto's RFA rights and will still give him a fair deal. Personally I think the issue isn't over $$$ but over term. I think Murray and Rasmus' agent are on different sides of the 3 v 8 year debate.

 

So they need to compromise :)    Which is why I think 5 gets it done.    Doesn't mean he's gone after year 5, you resign him well before that if he develops, or you trade him for what would amount to a hefty return.    

 

I'll say it again, he hasn't shown enough to warrant an 8-year deal.    He's slow on puck retrievals and doesn't have very good hands or quickness, his transitions (backward to forward mostly) are slow and clumsy at times.   He gets beat wide quite often... see McDavid last season, or Matthews in the World Cup on Eichel's goal.    Yeah, those are some great players, but you need your franchise defenseman to be able to defend those guys.     Murray didn't draft him and yes, most folks who know anything about hockey like him as a prospect.    He took his game to another level last season, but that needs to continue for another few years before you lock him up for nearly a decade.  

 

Dmitri Kalinin is a guy that comes to mind, he too was a nice prospect but never developed... how do you know this isn't the best we'll ever see from Risto?  If this is his best, are you still willing to give him 8 years?     

 

Yeah I get it, +/- can be considered a team stat, but guess what... Risto is a big part of that team, he's on the ice for those goals against, so you can't just ignore that stat completely.     He was a -21 on a .500 team last season....   that's terrible.    Let's look at other .500 teams top defensemen (by minutes played)....

 

BUF -21 (team goal diff),  Risto -21, Bogo -11

NJD -24, Greene +7, Larsson +15

COL -24, Beauchamin -7, E. Johnson -19

MTL -15,  Subban +4, Markov -6

ARI -36, OEL -6, Stone -10

WPG -24, Byfuglien +4, Myers +6, Trouba +10

[That Aud Smell]

I'll say it again, he hasn't shown enough to warrant an 8-year deal.    He's slow on puck retrievals and doesn't have very good hands or quickness, his transitions (backward to forward mostly) are slow and clumsy at times.   He gets beat wide quite often... see McDavid last season, or Matthews in the World Cup on Eichel's goal.    Yeah, those are some great players, but you need your franchise defenseman to be able to defend those guys.     Murray didn't draft him and yes, most folks who know anything about hockey like him as a prospect.    He took his game to another level last season, but that needs to continue for another few years before you lock him up for nearly a decade.  

 

Dmitri Kalinin is a guy that comes to mind, he too was a nice prospect but never developed... how do you know this isn't the best we'll ever see from Risto?  If this is his best, are you still willing to give him 8 years?     

 

There's no disputing that this is carefully considered on pi's part.