Defense wins championships, so how does Buffalo's look?

[LGR4GM]

You have all heard the old adage, "defense wins championship". This season we saw the Sabres add 4 20 goal scorers to their roster in Kane, ROR, Eichel, and Reinhart but we were unable to truly strengthen the blue line.  We add Jake McCabe who had a good rookie year but what else do we need?  Do we need a LHD in the mold of Alex Goligoski? Or do we need more defensive defenders? How do these types of players fit into Bylsma's system? Do the Sabres have enough depth at defense to make the playoffs or win a round? Who are our top 4?  Lots of questions surrounding defenders and I wanted to know what people think. Are we at least 2 guys away as I think on defense? Is the Bogo bunker warranted? All the questions.

 

I think we need a big move of some kind. We need to find and target a young (under 25) LHD who could play with Risto or Bogo depending on what works best. Now the where and how do we get this mythical creature, I don't know. So pull up a chair, open a beer at your desk, and consider my questions because defense wins championships and our offense is already looking pretty fly. 

[Taro T]

You have all heard the old adage, "defense wins championship". This season we saw the Sabres add 4 20 goal scorers to their roster in Kane, ROR, Eichel, and Reinhart but we were unable to truly strengthen the blue line.  We add Jake McCabe who had a good rookie year but what else do we need?  Do we need a LHD in the mold of Alex Goligoski? Or do we need more defensive defenders? How do these types of players fit into Bylsma's system? Do the Sabres have enough depth at defense to make the playoffs or win a round? Who are our top 4?  Lots of questions surrounding defenders and I wanted to know what people think. Are we at least 2 guys away as I think on defense? Is the Bogo bunker warranted? All the questions.

 

I think we need a big move of some kind. We need to find and target a young (under 25) LHD who could play with Risto or Bogo depending on what works best. Now the where and how do we get this mythical creature, I don't know. So pull up a chair, open a beer at your desk, and consider my questions because defense wins championships and our offense is already looking pretty fly.

 

The issues w/ the D aren't anything the addition of Fowler & Chychrun can't fix. ;)

 

Too bad for the Sabres that Ennis couldn't get back before the season ended. A little good will from the McGinn deal, 4 or 5 games of Ennis looking like the good Ennis, & a little luck on draft day & it could've been. :(

 

(And NO, not saying Ennis straight up for Fowler, not even close; BUT if Ennis were back, he could've been a major piece of a Fowler deal.)

[LGR4GM]

I wonder if Pysyk and 1 of Ennis or Zemgus along with something else go in the offseason for a defender.

[Taro T]

I wonder if Pysyk and 1 of Ennis or Zemgus along with something else go in the offseason for a defender.

Will be (mildly) surprised if they don't. Would prefer to not lose Girgensons, but if he's a key piece to upgrading the D, so be it. Like Ennis, but because he missed so much of this season, if he's gone it won't feel like the Sabres "lost" anything new.

[Drunkard]

Who uses that cliché in hockey? I always hear it for football but I've rarely (if ever) heard it used when talking about hockey. But I digress.

 

It's obvious that our forward ranks have improved more than our blue line, but I still think one significant upgrade on the left hand side would make our entire blue line solid to good. The right side is fine with Ristolainen, Bogosian, and Psysk and I think Gorges and McCabe are good on the left provided we also get an upgrade on that side to shelter them a bit. Ristolainen, Psysk, and McCabe should all continue to improve as they add experience. Adding a guy like Fowler wouldn't have people mistaking our defense for Nashville or Chicago, but it would make them good and solid from top to bottom. Franson works fine next season as 7th dman or injury/slump replacement and we have a couple seasons to find or groom a replacement for Gorges, plus by that time McCabe and Psysk will be better known quantities with regards to where they'll slot in the defensive hierarchy and whether or not we'll need to upgrade them.

Edited April 27, 2016 by Drunkard

[Derrico]

Will be (mildly) surprised if they don't. Would prefer to not lose Girgensons, but if he's a key piece to upgrading the D, so be it. Like Ennis, but because he missed so much of this season, if he's gone it won't feel like the Sabres "lost" anything new.

I'm not sure how much value Girgensons has.  I like him but he's coming off a 7 goal, 18 point season.  Those are nowhere near centre pieces for trades.  I know he's young he's young.  But if I can get a team to bite on him being a big part of the trade to land a potential top line LHD then go for it.

 

A little off topic and I don't mean to derail the thread but where are we slotting Girgs if he's still here?  I sure would like one more top 6 winger.  With Eich, Reinhart, ROR, Kane and Ennis that would take up all 6 spots.  I don't think DD changes up Larsson, Gionta and Foligno.  So does Girgs start on the 4th line unless there's an injury?  Is he Gionta's replacement on that 3rd line after next season?  I really do like the potential of Girgs, but I need a lot more from him next season and I'm not sure where he exactly fits.

[pi2000]

For Bylsma system (and modern NHL), you need defensemen who can skate the puck out of the zone.... it's all about speed on the back-end.    

 

Gorges, Franson, and Coliacovo are simply too slow.      They won't be around when this team becomes a contender.  

 

McCabe and Bogo can skate well enough.    Bogo needs to improve his quickness, takes him too long to get up to top speed.

 

Risto, Pysyk need to get faster.   Risto is a great player, but he's not a + skater.   He loses races and can't catch guys from behind.

 

Guhle will be a great fit.   Nelson has potential has a lot to work on, but he skates well enough.

 

When looking at recent Cup contenders, their top 4-5 defensemen can skate.   The Kings took a step back on the back-end this season and it showed against a faster skating Sharks team.

 

ANA is a great example of what you want your back-end to look like... Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Theodore, Despres... all superb skaters, I'd lump Manson in there as well as he's an above average skater.    Bieksa not so much, haha.    

[Taro T]

I'm not sure how much value Girgensons has.  I like him but he's coming off a 7 goal, 18 point season.  Those are nowhere near centre pieces for trades.  I know he's young he's young.  But if I can get a team to bite on him being a big part of the trade to land a potential top line LHD then go for it.

 

A little off topic and I don't mean to derail the thread but where are we slotting Girgs if he's still here?  I sure would like one more top 6 winger.  With Eich, Reinhart, ROR, Kane and Ennis that would take up all 6 spots.  I don't think DD changes up Larsson, Gionta and Foligno.  So does Girgs start on the 4th line unless there's an injury?  Is he Gionta's replacement on that 3rd line after next season?  I really do like the potential of Girgs, but I need a lot more from him next season and I'm not sure where he exactly fits.

Didn't say Girgensons would be a center piece, but if he goes, do expect him to be someone the other team considered key to the deal, rather than a throw-in.

 

IF he's still here, I'd expect him either 2nd line W or 4th line C (if Legwand is gone) or 4th line W (if Legwand is back) this season & sliding into 3rd line W duty when Gionta (inevitably) loses a step (in '17 or '18). Would expect him to be the big body on either PP1 or PP2 this season & on the 2nd or 3rd PK pairing as well.

[Norcal]

I think Murray will circle back to Fowler this offseason

 

If he can't get Fowler or wants some more LD help I would target guys who have been in the league a while and might not outright be available like:

 

Jonas Brodin, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Murray or another guy who might be on the brink but has other players in front of them.

 

I like Gorges just fine and he's even grittier in the playoffs but I can't see him being more than a 3rd pairing on a playoff/cup team.

 

I picked these guys because they are young and from a few games I've seen but the analytics crowd may have some stats to show why my choices suck idk?

 

I could see Murray trading or keeping Gorges, Pysyk, Franson or McCabe to make something work.

[Kruppstahl]

I am concerned about Pysyk's regression this last year.  Not sure of McCabe's ultimate ceiling; it may be too low.

 

Risto is not only on the "you can't touch him" list, you can't even look at him.

 

We need more pieces.

[Beer]

Who uses that cliché in hockey? I always hear it for football but I've rarely (if ever) heard it used when talking about hockey. But I digress.

 

It's obvious that our forward ranks have improved more than our blue line, but I still think one significant upgrade on the left hand side would make our entire blue line solid to good. The right side is fine with Ristolainen, Bogosian, and Psysk and I think Gorges and McCabe are good on the left provided we also get an upgrade on that side to shelter them a bit. Ristolainen, Psysk, and McCabe should all continue to improve as they add experience. Adding a guy like Fowler wouldn't have people mistaking our defense for Nashville or Chicago, but it would make them good and solid from top to bottom. Franson works fine next season as 7th dman or injury/slump replacement and we have a couple seasons to find or groom a replacement for Gorges, plus by that time McCabe and Psysk will be better known quantities with regards to where they'll slot in the defensive hierarchy and whether or not we'll need to upgrade them.

Huh?  Defense does win championship regardless of sport.  Look at the recent Stanley Cup champions, all have outstanding D corps.  To say our offense improved more than our D is not true.  We went from 274 GA to 222 (-54) this year.  The offensive production went from 161 GF to 201 (+40).  I would say that the defensive play of our forwards improved greatly with the addition of ROR and Kane and that certainly contributed to a lower GA.  The third line of Gionta-Larsson-Foligno also blossomed as a solid shutdown line. 

 

Addition of a LHD for #1 pairing is a must and GMTM knows it.  He's also got to find a scoring winger to put on the top line.

[Randall Flagg]

Who uses that cliché in hockey? I always hear it for football but I've rarely (if ever) heard it used when talking about hockey. But I digress.

 

 

I haven't heard it used with regards to hockey much, but it definitely is true for hockey, considering the list I know TBPhD has posted at some point, of the league-wide defensive ranks of cup winners.

 

I agree with Liger that we need at least one MAJOR move/addition, that could come in the form of a big trade or striking gold with a draft pick. Analyzing our current corps, I have been quick to point out how much I loved Gorges' unexpected level of play considering the minutes he got and the injury he had last summer, but I'd really love him on the third pairing with Pysyk or Nelson. I wasn't nearly as impressed with McCabe as some people were, mainly because to my eye, his decision-making, both under pressure and without pressure, have shown no improvement since I first read his scouting reports detailing that as his main weakness. I think he had an okay season, but I don't feel comfortable relying on him to be any better than the fourth-best defender on a cup contender. Bogosian's salary and injury history concern me, but I'm not quite in the bunker yet. 

 

I've been drooling about Fowler, not only because of his edgework (it's ridiculous, check his skating out during game seven tonight), but because I'm uneasy with Risto getting the minutes he has been and how it will affect his development. I want, more than anything, to find a way to get Risto a partner who is currently better than he is. I think it would help us get Risto to his ceiling while pushing Gorges and McCabe into minutes I'm much more comfortable with. Not familiar enough with Goligoski/Yandle to comment on them, but an addition in free agency this year would spice things up for sure.

 

Some 2017 Defensemen UFAs, according to hockeybuzz (not sure of their credibility):

Burns

Shattenkirk

Kulikov

Hedman

Del Zotto

Oduya

Alzner

Daley

 

I'm sure the big names on this list will get locked up, but there's nothing wrong with dreaming.

 

Also, I'm quietly hoping for Guhle to be a home run. That would help things out a LOT. His skating is sublime. 

[Beer]

I haven't heard it used with regards to hockey much, but it definitely is true for hockey, considering the list I know TBPhD has posted at some point, of the league-wide defensive ranks of cup winners.

 

I agree with Liger that we need at least one MAJOR move/addition, that could come in the form of a big trade or striking gold with a draft pick. Analyzing our current corps, I have been quick to point out how much I loved Gorges' unexpected level of play considering the minutes he got and the injury he had last summer, but I'd really love him on the third pairing with Pysyk or Nelson. I wasn't nearly as impressed with McCabe as some people were, mainly because to my eye, his decision-making, both under pressure and without pressure, have shown no improvement since I first read his scouting reports detailing that as his main weakness. I think he had an okay season, but I don't feel comfortable relying on him to be any better than the fourth-best defender on a cup contender. Bogosian's salary and injury history concern me, but I'm not quite in the bunker yet. 

 

I've been drooling about Fowler, not only because of his edgework (it's ridiculous, check his skating out during game seven tonight), but because I'm uneasy with Risto getting the minutes he has been and how it will affect his development. I want, more than anything, to find a way to get Risto a partner who is currently better than he is. I think it would help us get Risto to his ceiling while pushing Gorges and McCabe into minutes I'm much more comfortable with. Not familiar enough with Goligoski/Yandle to comment on them, but an addition in free agency this year would spice things up for sure.

 

Some 2017 Defensemen UFAs, according to hockeybuzz (not sure of their credibility):

Burns

Shattenkirk

Kulikov

Hedman

Del Zotto

Oduya

Alzner

Daley

 

I'm sure the big names on this list will get locked up, but there's nothing wrong with dreaming.

 

Also, I'm quietly hoping for Guhle to be a home run. That would help things out a LOT. His skating is sublime. 

Yes please on Burns

[inkman]

Yes please on Burns

Zero chance he's not locked up.

[Randall Flagg]

Zero chance he's not locked up.

As is the case most likely for every player on that list that gets anyone excited, haha.

 

I think Murray will circle back to Fowler this offseason

 

If he can't get Fowler or wants some more LD help I would target guys who have been in the league a while and might not outright be available like:

 

Jonas Brodin, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Murray or another guy who might be on the brink but has other players in front of them.

 

I like Gorges just fine and he's even grittier in the playoffs but I can't see him being more than a 3rd pairing on a playoff/cup team.

 

I picked these guys because they are young and from a few games I've seen but the analytics crowd may have some stats to show why my choices suck idk?

 

I could see Murray trading or keeping Gorges, Pysyk, Franson or McCabe to make something work.

Tough to imagine Columbus wanting to move away from a future D-core containing Murray, Jones, and Werenski.

[Norcal]

Yeah I know it's a long shot but if I'm Murray I kick the tires

[jsb]

Fowler is presently #1 on the Ducks in TOI, so I don't think we have a big enough package to pry him out of Anaheim. Vantanen and Lindholm are #2 and #3 so I don't see anything coming out of Anaheim. In their shoes, I wouldn't get rid of any of them either.

 

To me the UFA market has Goligoski and Yandle available, neither will be cheap and both would be upgrades as a QB on our 2nd line PP team and on our 1st line but both are or will be 30 shortly. I'd like to see this years development on both Pysyk and McCabe before I downgrade them and Bogo doesn't deserve a bunker. I'm not as down on our D as some are because my opinion is our young forwards were more the fault for some of our defensive woes than the Dmen were although there's no denying an upgrade in speed would be most welcome and not just in skating but getting the puck out of our zone quicker.

[Drunkard]

Huh?  Defense does win championship regardless of sport.  Look at the recent Stanley Cup champions, all have outstanding D corps.  To say our offense improved more than our D is not true.  We went from 274 GA to 222 (-54) this year.  The offensive production went from 161 GF to 201 (+40).  I would say that the defensive play of our forwards improved greatly with the addition of ROR and Kane and that certainly contributed to a lower GA.  The third line of Gionta-Larsson-Foligno also blossomed as a solid shutdown line. 

 

Addition of a LHD for #1 pairing is a must and GMTM knows it.  He's also got to find a scoring winger to put on the top line.

 

I didn't say the cliché wasn't true, I said it's a cliché used predominantly in football because it is. I also didn't say our offense improved more than our defense I said our forwards improved more than our blue line. This is a big distinction because forwards still play defense and defensemen still play offense. The fact that our GA went down more than our GF went up doesn't make my statement untrue. Our forwards did improve more than our blue line and upgrading the blue line should be a bigger priority than upgrading our forwards. A true #1 defenseman for the left hand side would be a welcome addition for sure, but those guys don't grow on trees and even if one comes available the price will be steep. It should be his top priority but it doesn't mean it's a guarantee that we'll find one. We may have to settle for an upgrade that isn't a bonafide #1 but still helps our roster significantly.

Edited April 27, 2016 by Drunkard

[LGR4GM]

Remember that time Drunkard and Beer argued... lols

 

sorry, I agree with Drunkard that you can't just take GF and GA and say look at this. I think that any increase in GF would result most likely in a decrease in GA simply because to score you have to be in the opponents end (yes I have seen the dumb goals but I am not talking about rule exceptions). Also typically forwards are scoring for our team. They are accounting for most of those GF but the GA are most assuredly not all on the defense.  Either way the point is both Drunkard and Beer are right in that our upgraded forwards made our defense better. 

Edited April 27, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Drunkard]

Remember that time Drunkard and Beer argued... lols

 

sorry, I agree with Drunkard that you can't just take GF and GA and say look at this. I think that any increase in GF would result most likely in a decrease in GA simply because to score you have to be in the opponents end (yes I have seen the dumb goals but I am not talking about rule exceptions). Also typically forwards are scoring for our team. They are accounting for most of those GF but the GA are most assuredly not all on the defense.  Either way the point is both Drunkard and Beer are right in that our upgraded forwards made our defense better. 

 

I wasn't trying to argue. I just wanted to clarify my statements and explain them to avoid the whole straw man nonsense but anyway.

 

Lgr,

 

Who would you expect Murray to target through trade or free agency to help us on the back end? The consensus has seemed to be Fowler by most of us here but he's been logging a ton of ice time in the playoffs which would make me think he's unlikely to move. A better question for you though (since you seem to follow the draft prospects pretty closely) is do you think any of the defenseman in this year's class would have the ability to step into the NHL right away? I'm guessing that none of them are (or they'd be projected higher) but do you think any of them would be ready within a season? Two seasons?

Edited April 27, 2016 by Drunkard

[LGR4GM]

I was just amused because of your screen names really. 

[Drunkard]

I was just amused because of your screen names really. 

 

Yeah, you think we'd be more in sync but I guess it's more like bickering siblings.

[LGR4GM]

I wasn't trying to argue. I just wanted to clarify my statements and explain them to avoid the whole straw man nonsense but anyway.

 

Lgr,

 

Who would you expect Murray to target through trade or free agency to help us on the back end? The consensus has seemed to be Fowler by most of us here but he's been logging a ton of ice time in the playoffs which would make me think he's unlikely to move. A better question for you though (since you seem to follow the draft prospects pretty closely) is do you think any of the defenseman in this year's class would have the ability to step into the NHL right away? I'm guessing that none of them are (or they'd be projected higher) but do you think any of them would be ready within a season? Two seasons?

Through trade I still think 1 of Florida's young guys could be targeted. You have Matheson and McCoshen who I think we could trade a little RW depth for.

 

As for UFA I would still target Goligoski because I think he plays well and will be cheaper than Yandle.

 

This draft I have followed less than the previous 3 years just because I have been busy but I have been fighting to catch up. I do not see a defender currently who can jump from the draft to the NHL realistically. Chychrun has some work to do, Juolevi has some strength to gain, Sergachev has some positioning and NA game to work on. Out of those 3 Juolevi seems to be the safest bet and the one most consistently in the top 10. Sergachev though is talked about because he has a lot of offensive upside and he hits like a truck. Chyrchrun is really good all around and needs to add strength, the problem with him is it seems like everyone has a difference of opinion on him. Some are like holy crap he is similar to Ekblad while others are like well Juolevi and Sergachev have more to offer.  Realistically as an NHL gm though, I would give any of them that I draft another year in Juniors because I think they all need it. Will they need 2 years? I honestly couldn't say, depends on their own work ethic and growth. 

[Beer]

I didn't say the cliché wasn't true, I said it's a cliché used predominantly in football because it is. I also didn't say our offense improved more than our defense I said our forwards improved more than our blue line. This is a big distinction because forwards still play defense and defensemen still play offense. The fact that our GA went down more than our GF went up doesn't make my statement untrue. Our forwards did improve more than our blue line and upgrading the blue line should be a bigger priority than upgrading our forwards. A true #1 defenseman for the left hand side would be a welcome addition for sure, but those guys don't grow on trees and even if one comes available the price will be steep. It should be his top priority but it doesn't mean it's a guarantee that we'll find one. We may have to settle for an upgrade that isn't a bonafide #1 but still helps our roster significantly.

Drunkard,

I guess I misinterpreted your post. I read forwards as offense. I also took your opening question as disagreement or downplaying the importance of defense for winning championships. I do agree our forward situation is much better than a year ago.

[dudacek]

Will be (mildly) surprised if they don't. Would prefer to not lose Girgensons, but if he's a key piece to upgrading the D, so be it. Like Ennis, but because he missed so much of this season, if he's gone it won't feel like the Sabres "lost" anything new.

I will actually be surprised if Girgensons isn't traded along with a sweetener to the Wild for a defenceman, probably Brodin. They each had statistically poor seasons, they both have good upside.

 

The Wild can't pay all their defenceman, can't trade Suter, prefer Scandella, and Spurgeon really came on this year. Dumba and Reilly give them great depth.

 

Brodin is the perfect fit with Risto in that he has Gorges positioning and smarts, but can also skate and make a first pass.

Girgensons adds affordability grit and youth to a team that needs all three, with top six potential.

I'm sure they'd rather use Brodin to acquire a first-line centre, but given their cap issues I don't see a deal to be made.

 

Don't want to give up Girgensons, but with Larsson cementing centre three and Fasching and Bailey showing promise as middle six wingers we can afford the sacrifice.

 

Murray and Fletcher are buddies and the deal makes sense for both teams. Don't be surprised if Buffalo takes on more salary, maybe Kuemper.

 

Brodin doesn't make our defence great, but he is the right kind of player and he will allow everyone to shift into a more appropriate role.

To me, our biggest improvement should come from having five defenceman 25 and under, all coached by Terry Murray.

Edited April 28, 2016 by dudacek