The Sabres will win the division if...

[LGR4GM]

That's mostly because you think our current defensemen are better than I do. We just have different baselines for the comparison.

I'm with Blue. We have 1 legit top 4 guy. 1 decent top 4 guy and then questions. Outside of bogo and Risto, who else do ppl feel comfortable allowing top 4 minutes against top lines? McCabe maybe but again 1 injury and you're screwed. I hope Nelson pans out but he's a question mark still.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think everyone, save for maybe Randall, thinks our current defensemen are better than you think they are.

If we don't make the playoffs next year heads must roll.

 

1) That's certainly true for Bogosian, but I'm not sure it's true overall. For instance, I don't think my "Gorges should be on the 3rd pair" is an especially controversial opinion.

 

2) Nonsense. At the very least, let's wait to see how the offseason plays out before making such a proclamation.

[Drunkard]

You guys we have no depth on defense and someone is bound to get hurt. 1 defender won't be enough.

 

So which guys are you jettisoning off the team? Ristolainen and McCabe are definitely being retained and Bogosian, Gorges, Psysk, and Franson are all under contract next season at a minimum. If you bring in 2 LHD's is Gorges or McCabe going to be on the 3rd pair? Then you have the loser of that competition fighting it out with Franson for 7th dman. Do you send somebody down to the minors and risk a team stealing a guy like McCabe?

 

It's one thing to say in the abstract that we need to LHD but when you really look at it you risking spending assets or big money to get upgrades in then you're selling off loose parts for scrap.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Drunkard

[TrueBlueGED]

So which guys are you jettisoning off the team? Ristolainen and McCabe are definitely being retained and Bogosian, Gorges, Psysk, and Franson are all under contract next season at a minimum. If you bring in 2 LHD's is Gorges or McCabe going to be on the 3rd pair? Then you have the loser of that competition fighting it out with Franson for 7th dman. Do you send somebody down to the minors and risk a team stealing a guy like McCabe?

 

It's one thing to say in the abstract that we need to LHD but when you really look at it you risking spending assets or big money to get upgrades in then you're selling off loose parts for scrap.

 

The easy solution is trading Gorges. He's a guy you can probably get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for, while freeing up $3.9 million each of the next two seasons. 

[WildCard]

1) That's certainly true for Bogosian, but I'm not sure it's true overall. For instance, I don't think my "Gorges should be on the 3rd pair" is an especially controversial opinion.

 

2) Nonsense. At the very least, let's wait to see how the offseason plays out before making such a proclamation.

It's playoffs or just next year. I won't want to fire people, but it will be beyond disappointing. He has his first real offseason, he better use it Edited April 22, 2016 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

It's playoffs or just next year. I won't wasn't to fire people, but it will be beyond disappointing. He has his first real offseason, he better use it

 

What if we miss because something like Samson & Jack sophomore slumping occurs? I don't expect this to happen, but if it does, I'm not going to go blaming Murray and Bylsma.

 

...okay, maybe I'll blame Bylsma, but it won't be justified :lol:

[Drunkard]

The easy solution is trading Gorges. He's a guy you can probably get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for, while freeing up $3.9 million each of the next two seasons. 

 

So we trade Gorges for a draft pick that may never make the team and we upgrade him at what cost? Are we trading more valuable assets for a guy who's under contract or are we overpaying for a guy in free agency that will likely have a bigger contract for longer term than Gorges?

 

Again, the abstract solutions always seem great but when you really analyze them it's not as easy as it seems. It will be difficult enough to try to obtain a top pair LHD this offseason. To try to then also find another LHD for the second pair is going to be even more difficult. That's why I would try to find one to pair with Ristolainen and then let McCabe and Gorges duke it out to see who plays second pair and who plays third pairing.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Drunkard

[Taro T]

The easy solution is trading Gorges. He's a guy you can probably get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for, while freeing up $3.9 million each of the next two seasons.

 

Unfortunately, Ennis (appears to have) gotten healthy 2 weeks too late. If he'd've demonstrated health, then he, Pysyk, this year's 2nd, and Baptiste/Bailey might have turned into Fowler. Luck into Chychrun sliding and the D is better this coming season & should be significantly better 2-3 years out.

What if we miss because something like Samson & Jack sophomore slumping occurs? I don't expect this to happen, but if it does, I'm not going to go blaming Murray and Bylsma.

 

...okay, maybe I'll blame Bylsma, but it won't be justified :lol:

I don't see Eichel slumping and would be surprised if Reinhart slumps either.

 

McCabe slumping is almost a lock. If 2 D haven't been brought in, the severity of his slump could be a major factor in just missing the dance. Especially if Gionta or Gorges REALLY show their age.

[qwksndmonster]

2) Nonsense. At the very least, let's wait to see how the offseason plays out before making such a proclamation.

If the off season doesn't have almost everyone here predicting playoffs, something has gone horribly wrong.  And if the Sabres don't make it, Bylsma should be fired and TM should be on the hot seat at the very least.

[TrueBlueGED]

So we trade Gorges for a draft pick that may never make the team and we upgrade him at what cost? Are we trading more valuable assets for a guy who's under contract or are we overpaying for a guy in free agency that will likely have a bigger contract for longer term than Gorges?

 

Again, the abstract solutions always seem great but when you really analyze them it's not as easy as it seems. It will be difficult enough to try to obtain a top pair LHD this offseason. To try to then also find another LHD for the second pair is going to be even more difficult. That's why I would try to find one to pair with Ristolainen and then let McCabe and Gorges duke it out to see who plays second pair and who plays third pairing.

 

At some point there has to be a decision that Gorges in the top-4 isn't good enough, whether that's this year or down the line. I'd personally much rather have Goligoski at $5.5 million and an extra 2nd round pick to use/trade than Gorges at $3.9 million. Goligoski played the top pair on the best team in the West--the difference between them isn't trivial. Alternatively we could do what you suggest and get Goligoski and just keep Gorges, and let him compete with McCabe. But what if they both exhibit 3rd pairing level of play (a non-trivial possibility)? Is that really better than "overpaying" for a second sure thing?

 

For whatever it's worth, I think your scenario is the most likely way it plays out in reality--we get a legit top-4 to pair with Risto and let Gorges/McCabe compete for the second spot on the left side. I would just much prefer an alternative path.

 

 

Unfortunately, Ennis (appears to have) gotten healthy 2 weeks too late. If he'd've demonstrated health, then he, Pysyk, this year's 2nd, and Baptiste/Bailey might have turned into Fowler. Luck into Chychrun sliding and the D is better this coming season & should be significantly better 2-3 years out.

 

I don't see Eichel slumping and would be surprised if Reinhart slumps either.

 

McCabe slumping is almost a lock. If 2 D haven't been brought in, the severity of his slump could be a major factor in just missing the dance. Especially if Gionta or Gorges REALLY show their age.

 

Sigh, Ennis. What could have been :(

 

The prospect of getting one of the top D in the draft is probably the one thing keeping me from being super pessimistic if we can't bring in a second legitimate defender, and has a good chance of working out long term (the bonus is we wouldn't have to worry about the expansion draft in this scenario). UFA/trade-Gorges-McCabe down the left isn't the worst thing in the world. But for winning the division next year? Yea, not good enough.

If the off season doesn't have almost everyone here predicting playoffs, something has gone horribly wrong.  And if the Sabres don't make it, Bylsma should be fired and TM should be on the hot seat at the very least.

 

That's certainly the hope, and I have a lot of confidence in Murray to get expectations to that level. But I think the offseason could play out as a failure without him having failed. If UFAs choose other spots where money is equal, or if other teams refuse to make a reasonable value trade, and so on. Could anyone really fault Murray if he doesn't want to pay, let's say Yandle, $6.5 million for 6 years?

[Taro T]

At some point there has to be a decision that Gorges in the top-4 isn't good enough, whether that's this year or down the line. I'd personally much rather have Goligoski at $5.5 million and an extra 2nd round pick to use/trade than Gorges at $3.9 million. Goligoski played the top pair on the best team in the West--the difference between them isn't trivial. Alternatively we could do what you suggest and get Goligoski and just keep Gorges, and let him compete with McCabe. But what if they both exhibit 3rd pairing level of play (a non-trivial possibility)? Is that really better than "overpaying" for a second sure thing?

 

For whatever it's worth, I think your scenario is the most likely way it plays out in reality--we get a legit top-4 to pair with Risto and let Gorges/McCabe compete for the second spot on the left side. I would just much prefer an alternative path.

 

 

 

 

Sigh, Ennis. What could have been :(

 

The prospect of getting one of the top D in the draft is probably the one thing keeping me from being super pessimistic if we can't bring in a second legitimate defender, and has a good chance of working out long term (the bonus is we wouldn't have to worry about the expansion draft in this scenario). UFA/trade-Gorges-McCabe down the left isn't the worst thing in the world. But for winning the division next year? Yea, not good enough.

 

That's certainly the hope, and I have a lot of confidence in Murray to get expectations to that level. But I think the offseason could play out as a failure without him having failed. If UFAs choose other spots where money is equal, or if other teams refuse to make a reasonable value trade, and so on. Could anyone really fault Murray if he doesn't want to pay, let's say Yandle, $6.5 million for 6 years?

My guess is that Gorges starts the year on pairing 2 and gets bumped down to 3rd pairing by the end of the year. If he is top 4 all year, they definitely aren't winning the division (getting back to thread topic) unless the F's are much better much sooner than I'd expected, Lehner is worth a couple of 1st, or both. If he's 3rd pairing by the end of the season, I will be relooking @ my cashflow as I have a larger Sabres related expenditure in March/April than there's been for the past 3 years. :)

[beerme1]

Wow. I think some of you are really underselling McCabe. He will be a man next year. Georges is a valuable guy to have on the team unless he's first line pairing. Just no to that.

 

I'm not only calling playoffs but at least winning round 1 :flirt:

 

It will be great to have that level of hockey again next season.

[TrueBlueGED]

Wow. I think some of you are really underselling McCabe. He will be a man next year. Georges is a valuable guy to have on the team unless he's first line pairing. Just no to that.

 

I'm not only calling playoffs but at least winning round 1 :flirt:

 

It will be great to have that level of hockey again next season.

 

It's times like this I feel like I'm watching a different team. I thought McCabe was downright bad for the majority of the season. He had his moments, but overall...closer to AHL level than top-4 NHL level.

[qwksndmonster]

It's times like this I feel like I'm watching a different team. I thought McCabe was downright bad for the majority of the season. He had his moments, but overall...closer to AHL level than top-4 NHL level.

With Taro saying he's a lock to sophomore slump I was thinking "What was the second half of this season for McCabe if not a slump?"

 

I'm being quite optimistic in calling him a #4.  But, hope.

[pi2000]

Yes, 2 top 4 D who can skate.  One of them a PP QB.

 

Stamkos.

 

Kane to stay healthy and score 30g.

 

Ennis to stay healthy and score 25-30g.

 

Moulson to be the old Moulson and score 25-30g.

 

Lehner to stay healthy, play 60+ games and put up .920+ sv%.

[Derrico]

Wow. I think some of you are really underselling McCabe. He will be a man next year. Georges is a valuable guy to have on the team unless he's first line pairing. Just no to that.

 

I'm not only calling playoffs but at least winning round 1 :flirt:

 

It will be great to have that level of hockey again next season.

Just coming to post this.  McCabe went from the majority of the board thinking he wouldn't make the opening night roster to a guy playing some pretty big minutes and playing them well.  Sure he had some rookie mistakes but now the guy has a full season under his belt I'm ready for him to grab hold of top 4 minutes based on his play and not due to default.  I liked him more then others to start last year but he had to have been nearly as big of a surprise as Samson. 

It's times like this I feel like I'm watching a different team. I thought McCabe was downright bad for the majority of the season. He had his moments, but overall...closer to AHL level than top-4 NHL level.

Usually agree with you on most things but I didn't see this at all. 

[Randall Flagg]

Yes, 2 top 4 D who can skate. One of them a PP QB.

 

Stamkos.

 

Kane to stay healthy and score 30g.

 

Ennis to stay healthy and score 25-30g.

 

Moulson to be the old Moulson and score 25-30g.

 

Lehner to stay healthy, play 60+ games and put up .920+ sv%.

This might get us to the Stanley Cup Finals. Count me in :P

[qwksndmonster]

This might get us to the Stanley Cup Finals. Count me in :P

That was a wild read.  Moulson scoring 25-30 was the Shayamalyayn tweest.

[TrueBlueGED]

Just coming to post this.  McCabe went from the majority of the board thinking he wouldn't make the opening night roster to a guy playing some pretty big minutes and playing them well.  Sure he had some rookie mistakes but now the guy has a full season under his belt I'm ready for him to grab hold of top 4 minutes based on his play and not due to default.  I liked him more then others to start last year but he had to have been nearly as big of a surprise as Samson. 

Usually agree with you on most things but I didn't see this at all. 

 

I think McCabe was a genuine tire fire defensively without enough offense to make up for it. To be sure, some of this was due to getting saddled with top-4 minutes that he simply wasn't equipped for (before anyone jumps down my throat, I think we can agree he shouldn't have gotten those minutes as a 22 year old rookie), but looking at his career to this point, he's been plagued by inconsistency all along. I guess I just don't expect that to go away when it's been happening at every level from college to the AHL to the NHL. I view him as mini-Bogo.

 

 

That was a wild read.  Moulson scoring 25-30 was the Shayamalyayn tweest.

 

I hereby motion that from this moment on, every "out there" prediction/suggestion be labeled some form of "Shayamalyayn."

Edited April 22, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[Norcal]

Guhle says he is comfortable and thinks he can play in the A but his age means he has to return to juniors or play up with the Sabres, no AHL.

 

Can he crack the top 6? Do they include him in a trade or let him marinate? How bout if they take a LD with their pick this year?

 

Sign a vet like Backes, put him on a line with O'Reilly and Kane

Trade for or sign an LD1

Sign Vesey or Cagguila or both, slide em in with the Duo

Sign a reliable backup goaltender (Johnson if he's willing)

Keep working and focusing on special teams

Stay healthy

[beerme1]

It's times like this I feel like I'm watching a different team. I thought McCabe was downright bad for the majority of the season. He had his moments, but overall...closer to AHL level than top-4 NHL level.

 

You are one them underselling the dude. Team America. YEAH. He has leadership background and I have high expectations for his continued development. I expect you see a far more consistent guy next season.

[pi2000]

You are one them underselling the dude. Team America. ###### YEAH. He has leadership background and I have high expectations for his continued development. I expect you see a far more consistent guy next season.

 

I, for one, thought he was one of our top 2 D for the last 20-25 games or so. 

[Norcal]

I like McCabe, if he's 3rd pairing the D is gonna be pretty damn good

[dudacek]

Well, since this is now the defenceman thread, a few facts:

 

Over the final three months of the season, Zach Bogosian was tied with Alex Pietrangelo for 24th in defenceman scoring with 16.

Among the other names tied with or behind him, Goligoski, Fowler, Vatanen, Barrie, Ekblad, Subban, Vlasic, Reilly, Keith, Muzzin and Campbell. No more than two points ahead were Shattenkirk, Lindholm, Klingberg, Seabrook.

In that same stretch, McCabe was +14 as a 2nd-pairing defenceman on an average team. Good for 8th in the league.

Rsitolainen was 10th and Bogosian 48th in ice time over that period.

Pysyk had 10 points in that stretch

There are 60 defenceman who play on the first pair and 120 who play in the top four.

All defenceman make mistakes.

[dudacek]

And some opinions

Zach Bogosian gets too many injuries but when healthy was a good second-pairing player with 1st pairing production.

There are at least 50 defenceman I would take over Bogo, but I doubt there are 100

Pysyk and McCabe were solid third-pairing players in the second half and are more or less rookies, they should get better.

Risto is 21 and should be better than he showed in the second half

Gorges held his own against top lines for at least 70 games this year and would be on the second pair on all but about a half-dozen NHL teams.

Franson is an NHL player, But given our overall mobility issues its hard to disguise his skating flaws..

There aren't that many good defenceman - maybe a half-dozen franchise Keith-level defenceman, and 20 more first-pair Seabrook-level guys. hJalmarsson is the textbook "2nd pairing guy" and he is probably a top-50 blue liner.

Watching a team every night magnifies the mistakes.