Tom Webster Contest 6.0

[nfreeman]

I am a NFW on Bouwmeester.

[WildCard]

What's wrong with Jay?

[dudacek]

What's wrong with Jay?

He's kinda soft and doesn't bring the offence.

He's getting old and is expensive.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Paging PA,

 

*cusp* sighting in the TW thread.

[nfreeman]

I could see a one-year flyer on Bouwmeester, although I don't think he's GMTM's kinda player.  But I am solidly NFW on signing up for 3 years of him.  That would be like doubling down on Moulson's deal.

[TrueBlueGED]

He's kinda soft and doesn't bring the offence.

He's getting old and is expensive.

 

Yea, I mean my basic worry is that if those wheels go, it'll be uuuuugly. Bouwmeester was never especially great with his reads and gap control, but his skating allowed him to compensate and be very effective defensively. If he loses that closing ability, look out. Wonder if we could get a small salary retention in any deal.

 

 

I could see a one-year flyer on Bouwmeester, although I don't think he's GMTM's kinda player.  But I am solidly NFW on signing up for 3 years of him.  That would be like doubling down on Moulson's deal.

 

I wouldn't go that far--the guy is still playing 22 minutes per game on a contender. 

[Randall Flagg]

Yea, I mean my basic worry is that if those wheels go, it'll be uuuuugly. Bouwmeester was never especially great with his reads and gap control, but his skating allowed him to compensate and be very effective defensively. If he loses that closing ability, look out. Wonder if we could get a small salary retention in any deal.

 

 

 

I wouldn't go that far--the guy is still playing 22 minutes per game on a contender.

I do wonder what he'd look like next to Risto compared to Pietrangelo.

[Eleven]

So now that I know where the Sabres are drafting, I can take a stab at this:

 

1.  The Sabres draft Chychrun, even if they have to move up to do so.

 

2.  The Sabres draft a goalie somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.

 

3.  Cam Fowler is here next season.

 

4.  Steven Stamkos is not.

 

I think that's it for me.  

[Weave]

So now that I know where the Sabres are drafting, I can take a stab at this:

 

1.  The Sabres draft Chychrun, even if they have to move up to do so.

 

2.  The Sabres draft a goalie somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.

 

3.  Cam Fowler is here next season.

 

4.  Steven Stamkos is not.

 

I think that's it for me.  

 

So..... 4th round then?  You coulda saved some werdz.

[Eleven]

So..... 4th round then?  You coulda saved some werdz.

 

 

Allow me to clarify:  Somewhere among the third, fourth, and fifth rounds.

[Winston]

Too late to play? Hope not, cause here are a ton of predictions:

 

-Sabres stay put at 8 and take Chychrun

-Prior to the draft, we take a stab at acquiring Tyson Barrie but he is traded to EDM instead

-Keith Yandle is signed for 5 years, $30MM and paired with Risto, who gets a 7 year, $38.5MM contract

-Foligno gets a 1 year "prove it" extension like Larsson did

-McCabe gets a 2 year extension to avoid RFA

-Troy Brouwer is signed to flank ROR. 3 years, $10.5MM

-Legwand is not retained and Zemgus takes his place as 4th C since there's no room on the wing but his trade value is too low to move him

-Delo is non-tendered and hits UFA (he signs with MTL)

-Chad Johnson leaves for Calgary like many have also predicted. Not confident in Ullmark, we sign Al Montoya away from Florida for 2 years, $3.5MM to back up Lehner

-Franson is traded for a 3rd

-Of the young guys gunning for a roster spot, it is Bailey that makes the team (and he gets his number 95!). Fasching starts in Rochester along with ERod

-Tim Schaller is re-signed and for Rochester with the plan for him to be the first C up in case of injury.

-Bylsma decides not only to keep Jack and Sam together, but also reunite the 9-15-23 line for the start of the season. Our lines look like:

 

Kane-Eichel-Reinhart

Ennis-ROR-Brouwer

Foligno-Larsson-Gionta

Moulson-Girgensons-Bailey

 

Yandle-Risto

McCabe-Bogo

Gorges-Pysyk

Nelson

 

Lehner

Montoya

 

Edit: Forgot to add that I think Stamkos stays in Tampa. We never have a shot, and that's okay, because neither does Toronto :)

Edited May 25, 2016 by EichSnipe

[ubkev]

Too late to play? Hope not, cause here are a ton of predictions:

 

-Sabres stay put at 8 and take Chychrun

-Prior to the draft, we take a stab at acquiring Tyson Barrie but he is traded to EDM instead

-Keith Yandle is signed for 5 years, $30MM and paired with Risto, who gets a 7 year, $38.5MM contract

-Foligno gets a 1 year "prove it" extension like Larsson did

-McCabe gets a 2 year extension to avoid RFA

-Troy Brouwer is signed to flank ROR. 3 years, $10.5MM

-Legwand is not retained and Zemgus takes his place as 4th C since there's no room on the wing but his trade value is too low to move him

-Delo is non-tendered and hits UFA (he signs with MTL)

-Chad Johnson leaves for Calgary like many have also predicted. Not confident in Ullmark, we sign Al Montoya away from Florida for 2 years, $3.5MM to back up Lehner

-Franson is traded for a 3rd

-Of the young guys gunning for a roster spot, it is Bailey that makes the team (and he gets his number 95!). Fasching starts in Rochester along with ERod

-Tim Schaller is re-signed and for Rochester with the plan for him to be the first C up in case of injury.

-Bylsma decides not only to keep Jack and Sam together, but also reunite the 9-15-23 line for the start of the season. Our lines look like:

 

Kane-Eichel-Reinhart

Ennis-ROR-Brouwer

Foligno-Larsson-Gionta

Moulson-Girgensons-Bailey

 

Yandle-Risto

McCabe-Bogo

Gorges-Pysyk

Nelson

 

Lehner

Montoya

 

Edit: Forgot to add that I think Stamkos stays in Tampa. We never have a shot, and that's okay, because neither does Toronto :)

 

There is just no way that Rip doesn't give him some god awful number in the 50's Probably 59, just to f*** with him. 

[Winston]

There is just no way that Rip doesn't give him some god awful number in the 50's Probably 59, just to f*** with him. 

 

Maybe my boldest prediction, but I'm optimistic! 

 

I realized that I didn't include any big trades in my predictions. It's not that I don't think GMTM will make a minor move or two. I just don't see a big splash, and I think we'll try to make our moves in FA instead. It's just that so many of our trade chips aren't in ideal positions to be moved. 

 

Eichel, Reinhart, ROR, Risto- not going anywhere

 

Kane and Lehner- not untouchable, but given what we paid and what we still expect, it's too soon to move on unless overwhelming value, which isn't likely coming off injury-ridden seasons

 

Ennis and Girgy- value too low after terrible seasons/injury concerns. Unless someone pays for tank-years Ennis or Zemgus, then they'll be more valuable to us to keep around and hope for a bounce back

 

Foligno-Larsson-Gionta- the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.. I don't see Gio getting moved as the captain, even with O'Reilly ready to take over. This team is still young and I think his presence on and off the ice is under-appreciated. Larsson just re-upped, and Foligno should be affordable. The value these guys would add to a trade doesn't come close to the value of their collective line.

 

Moulson- Matt Moulson.

 

McCabe- Especially after his strong showing at the Worlds, I think McCabe is coming into his own. Given our lack of LHD, I'd be shocked to see him moved unless it's for a big time LHD, which would cost way more than McCabe and, well, this is a list explaining why I don't think we have the pieces to do that...

 

Bogo, Gorges, Franson- I think one or two of these guys can and will be traded, with Franson the most likely because of contract. I am firmly outside the Bogo Bunker, but I think that contract would be harder to move than it's worth. If we can move Gorges, I'd much rather keep Franson. Gorges' 3.9MM over the next 2 years doesn't look that good though. 

 

Pysyk- SabreSpace's favorite trade chip! I'm just not sure his value in a trade trumps his value to our team. He played third line minutes for a lottery team, so I don't think other teams would view him as a centerpiece of a trade. He's not going anywhere to replace a top 2 defenseman.. His ceiling is probably solid second pairing. For now, given Murray's comments on puck-moving defenders, I think Pysyk sticks on the third pairing and gets time with McCabe if/when Bogo goes down. 

 

The young guys/prospects: Bailey, Fasching, Guhle, Baptiste, Estephan, Rodrigues, Carrier, Nelson, Borgen, Cornel- no one jumps out at me from this group as being coveted enough to make a big splash. Quality pieces to include, sure, but nothing close in trade value to the recent guys we've sent packing like Grigorenko, Zadorov, Armia, even Lemieux. Say what you will about mid first-rounders being hit or miss just like second rounders, but the Grigorenkos and Zadorovs of the world are more enticing to rival GMs because of their draft position. We're at a position now where all of our recent #1 picks are in the NHL or have been traded. Of this group, Guhle probably has the most upside and most value, but GMTM just drafted him and he's a smooth skating LHD with great size. Coming off a down year, I think GMTM values him way more than other GMs would. Delo isn't a prospect, and my prediction was that he won't even be tendered, but I'll give him a shout out here.. Solid 4th line guy that proved he won't ever be anything more than a solid 4th line guy. Seems like a great teammate, and I love his enthusiasm, but I'm not sure he's got any substantial trade value. 

 

#8 pick- I love this draft class, and I think it's worth sticking around at 8. We'll either get one of the top defensemen, or a forward to eventually pair with Jack will fall to us. While we all want to win now, I think it's imperative to restock the farm with guys that'll make an impact on ELCs once Jack and Sam and Risto are all getting paid. Now could I see Murray betting on himself and moving 2017's #1? You bet.

 

I don't know, I could probably go through this exercise for every NHL team and come to the same conclusion- there'll never be another trade in the NHL! But as we all know, there are still plenty of trades, blockbusters even. Here's to hoping Murray finds a way to surprise me and pull a rabbit (or a duck) out of his hat this offseason.

[Hoss]

Since I'm way behind I'll put my predictions as they were before the draft and Vesey acquisition:

 

- Sabres stay at 8

- Sabres draft Juolevi or Chychrun who stay in the CHL

- the Sabres sign Stamkos to a 7 year, $80M deal.

- One of Foligno, Ennis and Girgensons are moved

- Pysyk is off the team (I believed this before he was traded but it's probably fair to not count it)

- Risto signs a 6 year, $34M extension.

- Chad Johnson signs a 2 year, $4M deal.

- A veteran RW is brought in and will be Bailey's main competition for a roster spot (Versteeg, Vrbata, Hudler options for cheap)

[tom webster]

I'm not sure what to make of this but it's been a really busy few months for me so I welcome some guest analysis.

And I still owe Hoss a jersey which should be rectified before end of September.

[Hoss]

Since I'm way behind I'll put my predictions as they were before the draft and Vesey acquisition:

 

- Sabres stay at 8

- Sabres draft Juolevi or Chychrun who stay in the CHL

- the Sabres sign Stamkos to a 7 year, $80M deal.

- One of Foligno, Ennis and Girgensons are moved

- Pysyk is off the team (I believed this before he was traded but it's probably fair to not count it)

- Risto signs a 6 year, $34M extension.

- Chad Johnson signs a 2 year, $4M deal.

- A veteran RW is brought in and will be Bailey's main competition for a roster spot (Versteeg, Vrbata, Hudler options for cheap)

I absolutely knocked it out of the park.

*starts sweating*

 

Right guys!?

 

*walks away in shame*

[dudacek]

I won this a few years ago but was unable to use the prize.

This year, Buffalo, I'm coming for ya!

[*]Sabres fail to sign Caggiula

[*]Reinhart lights it up at the worlds

[*]Team quickly signs Girgensons, Foligno and Larsson to affordable two- or three-year deals

[*]Win second pick in the lottery (have to be consistent here)

[*]Take Laine after never really seriously entertaining trade offers. He lights up development camp

[*]Trade Ennis and Pysyk to the Oilers for Jordan Eberle

[*]Trade Cody Franson, a decent prospect like Baptiste and a 2nd-rounder to the Blues in a cap dump for Jay Bouwmeester

[*]We let all our UFAs walk. Chad signs a nice deal with Calgary

[*]Overpay for Cam Ward on a two-year back-up deal

[*]Use UFA to sign a handful of Legwand/Colaiacovo/Donovan/COR level UFA vets. None make the opening night line-up

[*]Ignore Stamkos with Laine in the fold. Flirt with some UFA defencemen but refuse to pay a premium and fail to make a big signing

[*]Vesey picks Buffalo but doesn't have a great camp

[*]A young, touted forward, probably Girgensons, is the centrepiece of a trade to the Wild for Brodin. The Sabres are all of a sudden overloaded on the left side.

[*]Bylsma loses a summer-long argument with Murray. Reinhart starts camp at centre.

[*]Moulson comes to camp in amazing shape but fails to show any improvement. Not in the starting lineup opening night.

[*]Jack comes to camp all-business after a low-profile summer. Lights up the World Cup.

[*]Still unsigned, Risto is not there for day one of camp. Signs late for 7 years, $45 million.

Pretty mixed bag here.

Hit on Caggiula missed on Vesey.

Got the young 1st-round top 4 D right. Missed on the player.

Nailed Chad, but it was Carolina who overpaid on Ward.

Pysyk got traded, Ennis did not.

Okposo was the RW addition, not Laine.

Right on Falk, Fedun, Grant and I still expect one D to sign.

At least Reinhart made the Worlds.

Was right on the RFA affordable part and on Risto's deal dragging on.

And a couple remain to be seen that could make or break me depending on the competition.

Edited September 11, 2016 by dudacek

[Wyldnwoody44]

Johnson is gone. Possibly Calgary

 

Moulson retained, Legwand retained

 

We pick 8th and draft either juolevi or chcyruhn..... GMTM doesn't love Russians, I don't think we trade our pick at all (unless we win a lottery and possibly trade down) slim chance.

 

We Try and Deal Ennis, but his value is simply too low so he slots back up top next year.

 

Girgs and pysyk are traded.

 

I believe we get one of fowler/Lindholm/vatanen

 

We also deal with Colorado and make a stab for landenskog/duchene/barrie and land at least 1 of those players mentioned in a trade that we are mad about until that player plays lights out for us..... Guhle is on the table for trading

 

Vesey is offered a shot up top and agrees to Buffalo, if not then he's in Boston (hopefully not) , stammer to the leafs, Phoenix wins the Matthews sweepstakes.

 

McGinn is wined and dined but in the end is too pricy for the Sabres.

 

Risto signed at 5.75mm x6 the thought of a bridge is there, but ultimately the long term price works out OK without bridging.

 

Sabres sign calugglia

 

Erod has legit shot with the big club right from camp, Bailey may fill in as well.

 

And of course there will be ANTICS all over the place.

 

No significant coaching or managerial changes foreseen.

 

Lehner probably reinjures his ankle trying to get into super he-man shape in the off-season.

 

At least 2 sabres get food poisoning from chicken parm at chefs over the off season.

I was right about ANTICS, dealt psysk

 

Otherwise just shooting blanks...

[Eleven]

So now that I know where the Sabres are drafting, I can take a stab at this:

 

1.  The Sabres draft Chychrun, even if they have to move up to do so.

 

2.  The Sabres draft a goalie somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.

 

3.  Cam Fowler is here next season.

 

4.  Steven Stamkos is not.

 

I think that's it for me.

 

Nope.

[nfreeman]

First, thanks to TW for another awesome contest. These are perennially great threads.

 

This year's winner:

 

- Sabres do not move up in the lottery and end up drafting 10th. They take a defenseman.

 

- Matt Moulson is not traded due to utter lack of demand, nor is he bought out due to cap repercussions. However, the Sabres put him on waivers, which he clears, and send him down to Rochester.

 

- Sabres trade Zemgus, Pysyk and a #2 pick for Hampus Lindholm and give Lindholm the fat contract that Anaheim was unwilling to give him.

 

- Sabres re-sign Risto to a 3-year extension (which ends with him still being an RFA).

 

- Sabres re-sign Ocho to a 2-year extension.

 

- None of Legwand, Coliaicovo, or Ruhwedel is re-signed. Sabres speak with McGinn but don't get him as someone else overpays for him.

 

- Sabres do not make offers to any other team's RFAs.

 

- And the big one: Sabres sign Stamkos to a 7-year, $77MM contract.

 

Game on!

I missed on almost all of "em.

[tom webster]

OK, we need to put this too bed. Since nobody, no, not that nobody, came close to forecasting the off season, I propose that you all pick one move that you think will happen before end of February. Winner gets two tickets to Tampa Bay game in March. I would like to limit participation to those members who already entered contest. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

I say Foligno and a conditional 2nd go to ducks for fowler.... Because why not

[Huckleberry]

OK, we need to put this too bed. Since nobody, no, not that nobody, came close to forecasting the off season, I propose that you all pick one move that you think will happen before end of February. Winner gets two tickets to Tampa Bay game in March. I would like to limit participation to those members who already entered contest. 

 

Kane makes a move in a nightclub. I'm kidding I'm kidding

 

By the end of february the sabres will be 2nd in the division.  :blink:

[MattPie]

Kane makes a move in a nightclub. I'm kidding I'm kidding

 

By the end of february the sabres will be 2nd in the division.  :blink:

 

If Kane's a bust, that mean he busts a move in said nightclub?

[Randall Flagg]

Sabres-specific?