Steven Stamkos stays in Tampa Bay, 8.5mil x 8yrs

[pi2000]

I left ROR and Kane out because they score at consistent rates so I don't need anything else from them. You think Zemgus (new coach and system and only 22 years old) and Ennis (injured) are not going to make up that 20 goal difference, I do. 

 

To the bolded, it isn't a higher level.  I am not asking Zemgus to produce 30goals, I am asking for him to get 12 instead of 7. I am not asking Ennis to score 35, I am asking him to score 15 instead of 3. Not only are those numbers well within their range, they are amounts they have already produced and surpassed. This doesn't take into account Jake McCabe growing more, or Kulikov coming in or anything at all on the backend. I don't agree with your bolded at all. It doesn't refute my argument and it is just a waste of time. Stamkos does make us a better team but at what cost and for how long? What happens if Jack Eichel scores 40 and Reinhart hits 30? What if Vesey signs and gives us 15, what if I bring in Stamkos and because he isn't the best defensive forward we need 50 goals to counteract the goal differential? What if I can't sign Jack and Sam and Reinhart to their next deal because the cap doesn't grow much and I have 12 million tied up in a 35goal scorer who is average in his own end? You know what bad teams in the league do, they draft like ######, rationalize why they need to overpay a player, and don't develop players properly to take over from aging players who are starting to decline.

 

Imagine Zemgus, Ennis, Moulson, McCabe, etc... all scoring a few more goals this season.... AND Stamkos scoring 40g.   That team would contend for the division title IMO.    That same team, minus Stamkos, might sniff a wild card spot.

 

TPegs didn't by the Sabres so they secure a wild card spot year in, year out.   He wants Cups.  

 

You talk about what ifs.   What if BUF loses game 7 in the conference finals to a Stamkos PP goal and DET wins the Cup?   And then we'll sit here saying "well at least we get to re-sign Jimmy Vesey!, yay!".

[LGR4GM]

Imagine Zemgus, Ennis, Moulson, McCabe, etc... all scoring a few more goals this season.... AND Stamkos scoring 40g.   That team would contend for the division title IMO.    That same team, minus Stamkos, might sniff a wild card spot.

 

TPegs didn't by the Sabres so they secure a wild card spot year in, year out.   He wants Cups.  

 

You talk about what ifs.   What if BUF loses game 7 in the conference finals to a Stamkos PP goal and DET wins the Cup?   And then we'll sit here saying "well at least we get to re-sign Jimmy Vesey!, yay!".

If their goal differential works out correctly perhaps.

 

Yea, you aren't interested in having a conversation, got it. What if a Stamkos signs the deal for 12mil with us and then stops training and starts eating like crap, what if Stamkos gets hit on the head by a coaches stick at practice and breaks his head, what if Stamkos scores 80 goals in the next playoff series, what if Stamkos shits gold bricks and starts a gold rush in Buffalo, what if Stamkos... what if I think putting all your eggs into the Stamkos basket is dangerous and I would rather spread the risk around? What I think Jack Eichel will be better than Steven Stamkos. What if I think Sam Reinhart is going to surprise everyone with how good he will be. What if, I don't have faith that playing a offensive center who shows an 11% decrease in his goals scored from last year to this one and wonder, "man should I make that guy the head of my team and face of my teams future?"  

[Taro T]

Indeed.  It would be wildly optimistic to pencil Moulson in for more than 10 7 goals.

FTFY. ;)

[nucci]

If Vesey signs, I think I swallow my desire to win playoff series this season and I don't make any significant forward addition, unless I somehow find a way to dump Moulson's contract. I just don't like these players, for what they are going to get. I'd continue to push for a LHD deal, but that's it. Let the kids develop over giving old people bad contracts or Stamkos $12 million.

you don't want to win a playoff series this year?

[Randall Flagg]

you don't want to win a playoff series this year?

Oh I do, but I'm not going to go throwing contracts at players like the ones available this offseason, nor am I throwing the amount speculated at Stamkos, as a result of that desire, because I'm not convinced they help us down the road. I'd rather look for under-the-radar aquisitions (I mentioned Ekholm earlier) right now, because I think we'll be better suited for long term contention if we avoid giving the contracts speculated this offseason.

[TrueBlueGED]

Indeed.  It would be wildly optimistic to pencil Moulson in for more than 10 goals.

 

 

FTFY. ;)

 

...in Rochester.

[Thorner]

If Stamkos goes to Detroit, he's a dummy. Original Six and proven winning record don't mean ###### compared to what's on the current roster and who's in the stable.

 

Detroit has gotta be the favorite right now. It's disappointing, and we still have a chance, but if I were betting, I would bet on them. If he goes there, oh well, he can have fun continuing the streak for 7 years. And by streak, I mean one of consecutive first round playoff exits. At 3 and counting right now for the Wings.

 

I agree Qwk, but Detroit can guarantee he will be the number one center for the foreseeable future. With Eichel and ROR can the Sabres make the same guarantee? This is probably why Murray reinterated he sees Stamkos as a center.

 

There are other reports that the Sabres will at least get the chance to meet with him. Hopefully the selling of the blueprint is successful .

 

I doubt this is the case, but if they are in a position where it is a struggle just to get a meeting with the guy, I would tell him to buzz off. Not thinking that's the case, just mentioned it because of the "at least get the chance" wording.

[pi2000]

If Vesey signs, I think I swallow my desire to win playoff series this season and I don't make any significant forward addition, unless I somehow find a way to dump Moulson's contract. I just don't like these players, for what they are going to get. I'd continue to push for a LHD deal, but that's it. Let the kids develop over giving old people bad contracts or Stamkos $12 million.

 

IMO, you need to make a run for a Cup in short order while your young guns are still on their ELCs.   It allows you to go out and load up with a guy like Stamkos while your studs are cheap.  

 

Look what Anaheim did with Perry and Getzlaf were on their ELCs.   They get Niedermayer, Pronger, Selanne = Stanley Cup.  

 

CHI won in 2010 with Kane and Toews on their ELCs, they threw money at a guy like Hossa who played a huge role.

 

Or, you just rely on all home grown talent, make the playoffs year in and year, only to get bounced by a team who was willing to take risks and be aggressive in the FA/trade market like PIT was this year.

Edited June 27, 2016 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

I don't think Stamkos gets us close to a cup while Jack and Sam are on their ELCs, though. I really do understand the desire to win while they are. I just don't think Stamkos gets us there, and I think his contract could prevent us from getting there down the road.

[nucci]

Oh I do, but I'm not going to go throwing contracts at players like the ones available this offseason, nor am I throwing the amount speculated at Stamkos, as a result of that desire, because I'm not convinced they help us down the road. I'd rather look for under-the-radar aquisitions (I mentioned Ekholm earlier) right now, because I think we'll be better suited for long term contention if we avoid giving the contracts speculated this offseason.

ok, that makes sense then.....but I'm also tired of waiting for my teams to make the playoffs....I'm getting old.......

[7+6=13]

I ran the numbers for that argument already in this thread. Let's take a team that finished just outside the top 10 in goals, Calgary with 231 goals. Buffalo had 201 goals. So we need 30goals to be on the edge of the top 10 in goals for. Well Jack and Sam are easily going to get at least 10 more goals next season between the two of them. You have Zemgus, Moulson, and Ennis under-performing so hard that statistically last season was an outlier (Ennis was obviously injured). Let's assume we sign Vesey. Between those 4 players you need them to account for an additional 20 goals... so I don't buy the BUF needs scorers argument that much. We Tyler Ennis alone and healthy probably adds +10 goals to the team and I think Zemgus and Moulson alone can add another 10 and that doesn't account for Vesey. Buffalo needs better GT, better defense, and consistency. 

 

I don't think it's about just goal totals.  It's about getting goals when the average player can't. 

 

Players like Ennis, Moulson and Zemgus need things to set up or a rebound.  Stamkos scores when only the elite can put that goal in.

[Crusader1969]

I choose to be curious, but not emotionally invested in this one.

He makes our team better and more exciting.

His long term impact on the cap is frightening.

It's not an insult if he chooses to go elsewhere.

It's business. And it's his business where he wants to go.

 

 

Great way to look at it.

IMO, you need to make a run for a Cup in short order while your young guns are still on their ELCs.   It allows you to go out and load up with a guy like Stamkos while your studs are cheap.  

 

Look what Anaheim did with Perry and Getzlaf were on their ELCs.   They get Niedermayer, Pronger, Selanne = Stanley Cup.  

 

CHI won in 2010 with Kane and Toews on their ELCs, they threw money at a guy like Hossa who played a huge role.

 

Or, you just rely on all home grown talent, make the playoffs year in and year, only to get bounced by a team who was willing to take risks and be aggressive in the FA/trade market like PIT was this year.

 

 

That being said, who was the high priced Free Agent on the Penguins this past year?

 

I'm sure there was one or two but can't think of them.

[That Aud Smell]

IMO, you need to make a run for a Cup in short order while your young guns are still on their ELCs.   It allows you to go out and load up with a guy like Stamkos while your studs are cheap.  

 

Look what Anaheim did with Perry and Getzlaf were on their ELCs.   They get Niedermayer, Pronger, Selanne = Stanley Cup.  

 

CHI won in 2010 with Kane and Toews on their ELCs, they threw money at a guy like Hossa who played a huge role.

 

This has a ring of truth to it.

[Randall Flagg]

ok, that makes sense then.....but I'm also tired of waiting for my teams to make the playoffs....I'm getting old.......

It's definitely not the most fun idea, for sure. If we sign Steven, I'm still going to be pumped. I'll fret about the future after our first losing streak with him on the team :P

[IKnowPhysics]

For the money, we'd pay him...

 

I'll fret about the future after our first losing streak with him on the team his first game without a goal

 

FTFY

[Huckleberry]

IMO, you need to make a run for a Cup in short order while your young guns are still on their ELCs.   It allows you to go out and load up with a guy like Stamkos while your studs are cheap.  

 

Look what Anaheim did with Perry and Getzlaf were on their ELCs.   They get Niedermayer, Pronger, Selanne = Stanley Cup.  

 

CHI won in 2010 with Kane and Toews on their ELCs, they threw money at a guy like Hossa who played a huge role.

 

Or, you just rely on all home grown talent, make the playoffs year in and year, only to get bounced by a team who was willing to take risks and be aggressive in the FA/trade market like PIT was this year.

 

GMTM pretty much stated this as well.

[kas23]

Or, you just rely on all home grown talent, make the playoffs year in and year, only to get bounced by a team who was willing to take risks and be aggressive in the FA/trade market like PIT was this year.

I don't think anyone is arguing we should rely on "all home grown talent". Our team should be significantly better even if we make no moves. If Kulikov works out and Vesey signs and is decent, I think we'll be fine. They aren't home grown. Next offseason, we can reassess where we are, how far away from a SC run, and then act according by adding more non-home grown talent.

[Thorner]

I don't think anyone is arguing we should rely on "all home grown talent". Our team should be significantly better even if we make no moves. If Kulikov works out and Vesey signs and is decent, I think we'll be fine. They aren't home grown. Next offseason, we can reassess where we are, how far away from a SC run, and then act according by adding more non-home grown talent.

This is a good point. But the X factor is that there's a once in a lifetime FA talent available, just THIS summer.

[kas23]

This is a good point. But the X factor is that there's a once in a lifetime FA talent available, just THIS summer.

I agree with this. But it could be a boom or bust moment for us. And the bust would be a bad one. At least I don't want GMTM going after JT wingers. Waste of time and money.

[...]

I ran the numbers for that argument already in this thread. Let's take a team that finished just outside the top 10 in goals, Calgary with 231 goals. Buffalo had 201 goals. So we need 30goals to be on the edge of the top 10 in goals for. Well Jack and Sam are easily going to get at least 10 more goals next season between the two of them. You have Zemgus, Moulson, and Ennis under-performing so hard that statistically last season was an outlier (Ennis was obviously injured). Let's assume we sign Vesey. Between those 4 players you need them to account for an additional 20 goals... so I don't buy the BUF needs scorers argument that much. We Tyler Ennis alone and healthy probably adds +10 goals to the team and I think Zemgus and Moulson alone can add another 10 and that doesn't account for Vesey. Buffalo needs better GT, better defense, and consistency.

Great post. It speaks to me.

[WildCard]

I love that post, and no matter how many times that and the defense argument gets brought up (teams with good back ends did well in GF), I always hear we need scoring.

I agree with this. But it could be a boom or bust moment for us. And the bust would be a bad one. At least I don't want GMTM going after JT wingers. Waste of time and money.

Tavares?

[...]

I don't see not getting SS as a bust.

[Thorner]

I don't see not getting SS as a bust.

It wouldn't be, by any means.

 

And of course there's a chance that if we get Stamkos, it doesn't work out quite as well as hoped.

 

But there is also the not so trivial possibility that Stamkos elevates our young team to serious cup contention, and possibly more.

[pi2000]

The closer we get to judgement day, the less confident I feel about signing our lord and savior Steven Stamkos.

[ct fab]

Burnside of ESPN was in Sirius NHL station And when asked, said BUF by far makes the most sense for Stamkos. Toronto makes no sense at all, Detroit and Boston doesn't fit all that well and tb, though makes the most sense, seems to have moved on. He talked about how grsT BUF is for about 5 mins. Nice to hear, especially with a lot of people talking up DET and tor