How good would Edmonton be with no McDavid injury

[mjd1001]

Thought about this a while because it keeps getting brought up. Both at work and on talk radio....the topic comes up a lot "how good would Edmonton be had McDavid not gotten hurt" or "would they be in playoff position" or "would they be in a position to have a much smaller chance at the lottery?"

 

So, I don't know.  But what we can do is take the Oilers record in games he HAS played and compare it to when he hasn't.  That doesn't account for Schedule, injuries of teammates and other things, but it is the best we have.

 

 

Currently, Edmonton is the worst team in the league...50 points for the season..averaging 0.82 points per game for the entire year.

 

In games McDavid has played:  8W - 15L - 1otl.   17 points in 24 games, 0.71 points per game.  (projecting to 58 points over an 82 game season)

-As a team they are -15 in goals, or -0.63 per game

 

In games without McDavid:  14W - 18L - 5otl.   33 points in 38 games,  0.87 points per game.  (projecting to 71 points over an 82 game season)

-As a team they are -22 in goals, or -0.58 per game

 

That is a pretty big difference. Does that mean McDavid isn't a good player? Of course not..he really looks to be the best rookie in the NHL in a long, long time. But what it does mean is that team is so bad that it is likely that...if he never got hurt...they would probably be in the same position.....and are also likely to get another top 2-4 pick in this years draft (if not outright winning the lottery again.)

 

My personal conclusions:

 

-McDavid is probably the most talented offensive rookie since Crosby/Ovechkin arrived, and might be better than them

-McDavid isn't really helping is teammates much, making them better overall 2-way players YET.

-McDavid isn't a good two way player YET.

-The Oilers are a pretty rotten team top to bottom, It doesn't appear much can save them.  They don't need to trade one or two pieces, they need to purge that roster. 

Edited February 25, 2016 by mjd1001

[Randall Flagg]

McDavid absolutely is helping Eberle and Pouliot, but for some reason Hall and Drai fell off the face of the earth when he got back. And their defense corps is the worst I've ever seen in my life.

 

He looks miserable in post game interviews, just like he did when the camera saw his face the moment Edmonton won.

[mjd1001]

McDavid absolutely is helping Eberle and Pouliot, but for some reason Hall and Drai fell off the face of the earth when he got back. And their defense corps is the worst I've ever seen in my life.

 

He looks miserable in post game interviews, just like he did when the camera saw his face the moment Edmonton won.

Possible some players on the team are 'sitting back' and not trying as hard since he has returned to the lineup..figuring he will carry the load?  No matter how good he is, I can't see teammates taking that approach...but this is Edmonton.

[Thorner]

It comes down to the fact that hockey isn't basketball. One or two superstars don't make a team, and can't carry a team. No matter how good McDavid is, as evidenced by the stats thus far he is not capable of being a savior, single-handedly making his team good. No player can do that. (outside of maybe a goalie? Looking at Price)

 

The Oilers need an overhaul. 

[Huckleberry]

Their coach pretty much stated they could use a few trades to change the dynamic of the team.

[WildCard]

McDavid should have pulled an Elway

[pi2000]

Their coach pretty much stated they could use a few trades to change the dynamic of the team.

 

THanks Captain obvious

[bunomatic]

The G.M. said they are open for bidness and I'm pretty sure he said McJeebus is the only untouchable. Or maybe it was all a dream ?

[mjd1001]

I really think they need bigger moves than they even think they do.

 

Sure, mgmt in Edmonton is saying they need a shakeup, but they say that every year. THIS might be the time where they have to trade assets and not worry about getting fair value.  I'm not saying to get robbed blind...but move 3-4 of your major guys just to 'start over, so to speak.

 

You keep McDavid...you keep ONE of the rest of the core, maybe 2. You get the best you can for the rest. What is the worst that is going to happen? Next year your team on paper isn't going to look as good as it does on paper this year? 

 

Really, identifiy ONE of the core you have not to keep with McDavid...trade the rest of the 'core' for whatever you can get...then basically give away the trash you don't want.