Buffalo Bills 2016

[rakish]

I still don't know how they know what's coming.  I see what you see, but can't get to your conclusion.  Not playing devil's advocate; I just may not know as much about football as you do.

 

Edit, saw new comment, just getting to that.

 

Sorry, misread your question. Your first sentence gets to the crux of my theory here. For me, it's obvious they know what's coming, the Ravens are far too confident in the defensive play, if the second read is to Woods, TD, if the second read is to Watkins, likely TD. So if they know what's coming, let's look at the possibilities. The Bills talked about the play in the locker room, which is mic'ed. Less likely, the Bills got to the line too soon, and the Ravens were able to hear the Bills huddle, and pass that along to the defense before the wireless was turned off. I think it's important that this is the first play.

 

I recognize both possibilities are highly conspiratorial, and many people will ignore my thoughts for that reason, but I think Ravens were dead certain they knew the play, I think there's too many 'reads' being made for it to be a read. I'm arguing the Ravens are cheating.

[Eleven]

Edit, saw new comment, just getting to that.

 

Sorry, misread your question. Your first sentence gets to the crux of my theory here. For me, it's obvious they know what's coming, the Ravens are far too confident in the defensive play, if the second read is to Woods, TD, if the second read is to Watkins, likely TD. So if they know what's coming, let's look at the possibilities. The Bills talked about the play in the locker room, which is mic'ed. Less likely, the Bills got to the line too soon, and the Ravens were able to hear the Bills huddle, and pass that along to the defense before the wireless was turned off. I think it's important that this is the first play.

 

I recognize both possibilities are highly conspiratorial, and many people will ignore my thoughts for that reason, but I think Ravens were dead certain they knew the play, I think there's too many 'reads' being made for it to be a read. I'm arguing the Ravens are cheating.

 

Watching it with the benefit of your explanation, I agree that the Ravens were onto it.  Very observant.  

 

Could it be a play that they used frequently last year, and the Ravens simply read it?

[rakish]

I am by nature conspiratorial and I recognize I could be totally wrong because of my bias, but I think the Ravens staked too much on being right by guessing on a cost/benefit view.

[Iron Crotch]

I'm wearing a Zubaz tie today.  It is pretty hideous... and no one down here in Tennessee "gets it."  But, I will represent nonetheless.

 

[Neo]

I found someone doing an All 22 analysis of this game, and couldn't find the other example. This play is very interesting. The Bills split the field in half for their QB, the first read is the TE, covered with 3 guys. The second read is the WR on the right, covered. Taylor hits third read, the checkdown. Very nice job by the QB.

 

* snip *

 

Just a theory.

Rakish .. I love your analysis. Football is so choreographed that it's hard for me to distinguish between a breakdown or a call. I've seen this gif ten times and read the "Tyrod blew it" analysis that accompanies it. Your take jibes with my eye only after you articulated it. Thank you ..

 

It also jibes with the Raven player paraphrase: "we made Taylor be a quarterback." That is, he's going to have to recognize coverage before the snap, or move to his fourth read after the snap, to beat us. You can be aggressive defensively if the offense breaks the huddle with ten seconds on the play clock.

 

Edit ... I'll stop short of the conspiracy and go to film, formation and tendency!

Edited September 15, 2016 by N'eo

[That Aud Smell]

I'm arguing the Ravens are cheating.

 

Like others, I appreciate your analysis of what happened on that play.

 

I know we can't dismiss the cheating thing out of hand, given what goes on in the NFL, but I think it's far more likely that the D had been specifically instructed to expect this sort of formation in the first series and to trust what they'd seen on film regarding what the Bills are apt to do out of that formation -- i.e., that Taylor would reliably be going to the TE or checkdown.

[rakish]

I think that's a reasonable view smell if the SS knew he had FS coverage behind him, which he knew he didn't. As I said upstream, the SS makes a huge gamble here, on the basis of the formation? For me it's too big of a gamble, much less likely than the Raven's knowing what the play was going to be.

 

As I say, I have a bias. If this wasn't in Baltimore, or wasn't a unique situation (first play), I might give some credence to this possibility.

[rakish]

Let's workshop your idea, smell. I'll play the SS, you're covering Watkins, we just broke the huddle walking toward our positions.

 

rakish: smell, the Bills often start the game going to the TE, so if they come out with 2 WR weak side, I'm going to ignore Woods and help out on the check down. Good luck covering both.

smell: TIME OUT

coach: Why did you call time out before the first play?

smell: rakish has a concussion...

rakish: you can just call it a rakoosh, coach knows what that means.

smell: He thinks, based on two weak side WR, they might be going to the TE, if they do, the strong side WR will be the second read, the RB will be the checkdown, so he's not going to cover his guy, and leave it to me.

coach: I hate when he rakooshes

rakish: The plural is rakoos...

coach: I hate when he rakoos on Sunday, Eleven, get in there, play SS, and cover people.

 

I can't get the conversation to make more sense than that.

[Hoss]

Tyrod's feet on the first play may have been the biggest sign of what was happening if the defense was able to read them that fast.

 

As soon as he got the ball I knew it was a checkdown. He took a one-step drop as he gathered the ball and stood straight up. Even with Woods streaking wide open I don't think he could've made the throw flat footed.

 

Regardless, it's a negative play in my eyes.

[K-9]

There is no defending TT's utter lack of QBing skills on that first play from scrimmage. He paid little attention to what the safeties were doing pre snap, never looked left pre snap, and was too quick in his progressions post snap. 

 

On another note, he has GOT to stop stepping into pressure as well. This was a frequent problem last year that I attributed to his inexperience as pocket command is acquired through experience, but I was hoping to see some progress on that front and didn't see much of it on Sunday. 15 starts into his career, I'm willing to be patient, but he needs to start showing more command, more often.  

[rakish]

Nonsense K-9, the Ravens knew what was coming, if you look at the gif it's obvious that the Ravens know the progression presnap, you're blaming the quarterback because did what he was coached to do.

[That Aud Smell]

Let's workshop your idea, smell. I'll play the SS, you're covering Watkins, we just broke the huddle walking toward our positions.

 

<snip>

 

I can't get the conversation to make more sense than that.

 

Good stuff - amusing, anyway.

 

It just seems more likely to me that the Ravens were able to determine what was going to happen through legal means than illegal means. But maybe I am just being naive.

[rakish]

I think there's a difference between behavior when someone thinks what likely will happen as opposed to what will definitely happen, and the SS play indicates to me that he knew the progressions presnap.

 

And thanks for playing along.

Edited September 15, 2016 by rakish

[Hoss]

It's a single play but I think it's a microcosm of the entire game for Tyrod.

 

The two teams in that game are the two teams that know Tyrod the best.

The team he used to play for said the coaches gameplanned to "make him a quarterback." They know him very well and believe his biggest weakness is being a quarterback.

The team he plays for put together a game plan showing they didn't have a lot of faith in him overcoming a defense that planned well for him. You've got to have a guy you can trust to overcome whatever a defense throws at them, even if you know the defense is going to have a relatively masterful plan for a guy they used to play with/coach.

[Brawndo]

From Josina Anderson

 

Source on #Bills WR Sammy Watkins' (foot) availability Thurs. night: "He wants to play but i'm not sure if the docs are going to let him."

[dEnnis the Menace]

From Josina Anderson

 

Source on #Bills WR Sammy Watkins' (foot) availability Thurs. night: "He wants to play but i'm not sure if the docs are going to let him."

 

not sure how much stock I'm putting into that report.  I think it's gamemanship by Rex, even though I'm not sure what it accomplishes.. 

[K-9]

Nonsense K-9, the Ravens knew what was coming, if you look at the gif it's obvious that the Ravens know the progression presnap, you're blaming the quarterback because did what he was coached to do.

No, I'm blaming the QB because he didn't read the play properly, both pre snap and post snap. QB's first read is always the strong safety and TT missed that. If he's being coached to ignore an entire side of the field, we are in bigger trouble than I thought at this level. It appeared to me that when he gave that cursory glance to the left post snap, he didn't trust what he saw or was too quick to give up on it. My guess is the latter. 

 

As for knowing the play beforehand, I think that's certainly possible as there are a number of ways plays are tipped and good film study often finds that key, but it doesn't excuse TT's lack of execution. Point is, whether they knew the play or not, the Ravens were giving us something and TT should have seen it. I think TT made up his mind that if Clay wasn't there, he was checking down to McCoy no matter what. And he did exactly that. 

[That Aud Smell]

If he's being coached to ignore an entire side of the field, we are in bigger trouble than I thought at this level.

 

From what I'd heard, he absolutely was coached to do this last season.

 

As for knowing the play beforehand, I think that's certainly possible as there are a number of ways plays are tipped and good film study often finds that key

 

rakish has been saying that the Ravens knew what the play was, at least in part, because of other, less honourable reasons - some kind of improper intercept of headset communications, etc. 

[rakish]

Responding to K-9

No, I think the Bills use a divided field for their progressions, so they were going right the whole time, the TE was triple teamed, the second progression was to the WR, who was flat footed and not open, the third was the check down. If that is not true, then I'm wrong. If Taylor is taught to look at Woods for the second progression, then he is at fault.

 

My argument is that the Baltimore Ravens gambled a TD that he wouldn't make the second progression you think he should have made, and the Ravens were right. It's my belief that they wouldn't have gambled based upon footwork or formation, that they knew the play beforehand. Had Taylor seen the SS (if this really is a problem for Baltimore, I have no idea) on Woods and audibled, I think the FS changes the play and rolls to his right instead of his left believing that the play was changed to Woods or Watkins.

[Lanny]

Was this the first play?

 

My opinion, it's just cover 2.

[K-9]

Responding to K-9

No, I think the Bills use a divided field for their progressions, so they were going right the whole time, the TE was triple teamed, the second progression was to the WR, who was flat footed and not open, the third was the check down. If that is not true, then I'm wrong. If Taylor is taught to look at Woods for the second progression, then he is at fault.

 

My argument is that the Baltimore Ravens gambled a TD that he wouldn't make the second progression you think he should have made, and the Ravens were right. It's my belief that they wouldn't have gambled based upon footwork or formation, that they knew the play beforehand. Had Taylor seen the SS (if this really is a problem for Baltimore, I have no idea) on Woods and audibled, I think the FS changes the play and rolls to his right instead of his left believing that the play was changed to Woods or Watkins.

Regarding paragraph one, if that is the case, and I don't believe it is based on his 14 games last season, it's over. This isn't college where you can just concede half the field and force yourself to operate in constrained space against NFL talent. It is just too stupid and Roman should be fired immediately if that's the case. 

 

It's hard for me to get past, "If Taylor had seen the strong safety." That is his first read; it's his JOB and something he should be adept at after 5 years in the league. And that 2nd progression he should have made? Yes, he should have made it. That simple. 

 

Look, I get that TT and the rest of the team for that matter weren't in midseason form, but that's no excuse for his poor recognition and impatience with his reads post snap. And I'll just agree to disagree with you on this point. 

 

EDIT: I meant to add that I tend to agree with the Ravens player that said their game plan was to make TT be a quarterback. That speaks volumes to me. And it's indicative of seeing something about TT's tendencies on film. 

My opinion, it's just cover 2.

That's not cover two, it's cover one with the single safety deep middle. If it were cover 2, Woods wouldn't be so wide open. 

Edited September 15, 2016 by K-9

[Lanny]

That's not cover two, it's cover one with the single safety deep middle. If it were cover 2, Woods wouldn't be so wide open. 

Looks like CB has deep half, could be wrong. Could also be that the slot CB on Woods was in wrong coverage.

 

Essentially I'm saying I don't think there's as much into this as being made.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Lanny

[K-9]

Looks like CB has deep half, could be wrong. Essentially I'm saying I don't think there's as much into this as being made.

You mean the CB coming off of Sammy that recognizes the Ravens were screwed if TT sees Woods? Because I gotta believe a CB doesn't make the decision to leave Watkins otherwise. I could see that if it were the SS dropping back, but it's a task to ask a CB on a wideout to make that adjustment to get into a cover 2 from that far position. Almost impossible, I think. 

 

EDIT: The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced this was a broken play by the Ravens defense. Woods' assignment does NOT come off Woods like that unless he KNOWS there is safety help behind and there wasn't. Unless of course they really were convinced TT wouldn't even notice it. 

Edited September 15, 2016 by K-9

[Wyldnwoody44]

I understand a lot of convo is happening about that one play, I was unable to watch, how did the rest of the game look, especially TT (forget Roman, for now) from the Stat line and everything else, it appears our offense just plain sucks.

[K-9]

I understand a lot of convo is happening about that one play, I was unable to watch, how did the rest of the game look, especially TT (forget Roman, for now) from the Stat line and everything else, it appears our offense just plain sucks.

It pretty much went down hill from there.