Buffalo Bills 2016

[Samson's Flow]

The team I saw yesterday is not a playoff team. they have struggled and played down to two relatively weak opponents (Cincy without AJ Green and Jacksonville). I can't see them rattling off the 5 or 6 wins it will take to make the playoffs, and I fear we will be looking for significant improvement at key positions in the offseason.

[Lanny]

The team I saw yesterday is not a playoff team. they have struggled and played down to two relatively weak opponents (Cincy without AJ Green and Jacksonville). I can't see them rattling off the 5 or 6 wins it will take to make the playoffs, and I fear we will be looking for significant improvement at key positions in the offseason.

Just for conversations sake the major free agent decisions they'll have for this offseason are Gilmore, Zach Brown, Robert Woods and Lorenzo Alexander. I'm guessing Woods and Gilmore will walk and am hopeful they are able to reach manageable deals with Brown and Alexander.

[That Aud Smell]

TT's TD run yesterday was fantastic.

 

Just give him a bit more experience and some NFL-quality receivers who aren't in and out with injuries all the time and he will deliver.

 

He's the guy.

 

I can't say I agree. And I enjoy watching him play.

 

He consistently leaves a clean (enough) pocket and moves into or toward pressure. He almost never steps up in the pocket in order to extend the play and find an open receiver.

 

There are things he can do really well, but his tool box is too limited to be an effective NFL QB over the course of the next several years.

 

In any case, the larger issue is that extending him will require the franchise to commit substantial money to him next year (and perhaps beyond? (I'm not clear on what' else is triggered if he comes back next year)). He's just not worth that sort of coin, imo.

[Samson's Flow]

Just for conversations sake the major free agent decisions they'll have for this offseason are Gilmore, Zach Brown, Robert Woods and Lorenzo Alexander. I'm guessing Woods and Gilmore will walk and am hopeful they are able to reach manageable deals with Brown and Alexander.

The positions I was thinking of that need major improvement are (in no particular order): Safety, WR, OT, and QB (duh).

 

We can't go into next season with Sammy and a question mark at WR, we have had the worst WR's in the league this year and the under-utilization of Clay has emphasized that.

 

The Safety play has been abysmal this year after Aaron Williams went down, and I think this is a huge reason why Rex's defense looks so poor. His defensive style relies pretty heavily on competent safety play, and we have been beaten deep numerous times due to coverage mistakes by D Williams/J Meeks, who do not belong on an NFL roster IMO.

 

The Right Tackle position continues to be a revolving door of players, with nobody solidifying that position. Needs improvement.

 

I don't think the Bills pick up Tyrod's option given his inability to perform as a QB in terms of completing passes. This has been an issue with the Bills since the Kelly/Bledsoe days.

[darksabre]

I can't say I agree. And I enjoy watching him play.

 

He consistently leaves a clean (enough) pocket and moves into or toward pressure. He almost never steps up in the pocket in order to extend the play and find an open receiver.

 

There are things he can do really well, but his tool box is too limited to be an effective NFL QB over the course of the next several years.

 

In any case, the larger issue is that extending him will require the franchise to commit substantial money to him next year (and perhaps beyond? (I'm not clear on what' else is triggered if he comes back next year)). He's just not worth that sort of coin, imo.

This.

[That Aud Smell]

This.

 

The downside, of course, is that I don't think that whoever the Bills bring in to replace Taylor will be as good as Taylor is now. So, the team is apt to take a(nother) step back, in the event Taylor is not brought back.

[TrueBlueGED]

The downside, of course, is that I don't think that whoever the Bills bring in to replace Taylor will be as good as Taylor is now. So, the team is apt to take a(nother) step back, in the event Taylor is not brought back.

 

Still muddling, still not through.

[Randall Flagg]

Totally agree with both posts by Smell.

 

Can we opt out of his deal after next season?

[TrueBlueGED]

Totally agree with both posts by Smell.

 

Can we opt out of his deal after next season?

 

Money-wise, if we opt-in following this season, he's going to be our starter for at least two more years.

[Randall Flagg]

Money-wise, if we opt-in following this season, he's going to be our starter for at least two more years.

This is what I was asking for, yeah.

 

Dammit.

[darksabre]

Money-wise, if we opt-in following this season, he's going to be our starter for at least two more years.

That would be my big question. If we opt in, how long are we actually stuck with him and why? If we can get him out of here after a few years while we try to draft a replacement in a better draft then I guess I'm taking him on.

[TrueBlueGED]

That would be my big question. If we opt in, how long are we actually stuck with him and why? If we can get him out of here after a few years while we try to draft a replacement in a better draft then I guess I'm taking him on.

 

His 2017 and 2018 base salaries become fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the 2017 league year (starts in March, I think)--that's dead money on the cap if he's cut, plus future signing bonus gets accelerated to the dead cap total. If we "opt-in" following this season and then decide to cut him after next season, his dead cap hit would be around $15 million for the 2018 season. After the 2018 season his base is no longer guaranteed so we could cut him and only be responsible for his accelerated signing bonus money, which is less than $1.5 million. 

[darksabre]

His 2017 and 2018 base salaries become fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the 2017 league year (starts in March, I think)--that's dead money on the cap if he's cut, plus future signing bonus gets accelerated to the dead cap total. If we "opt-in" following this season and then decide to cut him after next season, his dead cap hit would be around $15 million for the 2018 season. After the 2018 season his base is no longer guaranteed so we could cut him and only be responsible for his accelerated signing bonus money, which is less than $1.5 million. 

So, realistically, it's really not that bad to take him on after this season, since there's like zero chance we'd have a better QB on the roster to pay until after 2018-19 anyway...

[Huckleberry]

So, realistically, it's really not that bad to take him on after this season, since there's like zero chance we'd have a better QB on the roster to pay until after 2018-19 anyway...

 

Unless you can draft the next prescott or wentz I don't see it happening either :p

[Samson's Flow]

Despite my hopes and what I posted above, given the prospects of landing another NFL starting QB, I think the Bills are picking up the option and having TT as their quarterback for another 2 seasons. The next chance for an easy out cap-wise is after then IIRC. 

[Drunkard]

We need to keep Tyrod Taylor until we have someone better. Do you guys remember the days of JP Losman, Trent Edwards, or Brian Brohm? Taylor is miles ahead of those guys and is better than guys like Fitzpatrick and Kelly Holcomb as well (who were on the higher end of mediocre). He's had a revolving door at WR as well. We're not likely to luck into a guy like Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson and I want EJ Manuel sent packing long before Tyrod Taylor has a chance to leave. I'd rather have Cardale Jones back there than EJ but that's beside the point. Taylor needs to improve his field reads significantly but he's the best chance we have to break this playoff drought anytime before it's old enough to vote and drink (it's already old enough to drive).

Edited November 28, 2016 by Drunkard

[That Aud Smell]

Taylor needs to improve his field reads significantly

I feel like we've seen enough to be able to say: It ain't happening. He may get marginally better at this (and other areas pf deficiency), but he is essentially what he is at this point.

 

I'm also not sure why the Bills can't unearth a QB on the second day of the draft.

[nfreeman]

I feel like we've seen enough to be able to say: It ain't happening. He may get marginally better at this (and other areas pf deficiency), but he is essentially what he is at this point.

 

I'm also not sure why the Bills can't unearth a QB on the second day of the draft.

I object to the first paragraph. We can't possibly know this after 20ish NFL starts.

 

What we do know is:

 

- he took a terrible franchise to 8-8 in his first year -- which would've been 9-7 if EJ hadn't pooped the bed vs Jax.

 

- he'll probably get them to 9-7 this year without his best WR for most of the year and with a bunch of injuries to his other WRs (who comprise a pretty mediocre group anyway).

 

- he'll also have lost his best player on O in McCoy for a chunk of the season, plus his RT.

 

- he's had quite a few stretches of terrific play, including on MNF against a very good team in Seattle.

 

- he doesn't turn it over or get sacked.

 

- speaking of which: he doesn't get sacked because he's impossible to sack BECAUSE HE RUNS LIKE MICHAEL FREAKING VICK.

 

I don't want anyone else.

[Doohicksie]

And.... the last season the Bills scored this many points per game, they had a quarterback named Kelly.

[Randall Flagg]

I object to the first paragraph. We can't possibly know this after 20ish NFL starts.

 

What we do know is:

 

- he took a terrible franchise to 8-8 in his first year -- which would've been 9-7 if EJ hadn't pooped the bed vs Jax.

 

- he'll probably get them to 9-7 this year without his best WR for most of the year and with a bunch of injuries to his other WRs (who comprise a pretty mediocre group anyway).

 

- he'll also have lost his best player on O in McCoy for a chunk of the season, plus his RT.

 

- he's had quite a few stretches of terrific play, including on MNF against a very good team in Seattle.

 

- he doesn't turn it over or get sacked.

 

- speaking of which: he doesn't get sacked because he's impossible to sack BECAUSE HE RUNS LIKE MICHAEL FREAKING VICK.

 

I don't want anyone else.

I'm not a TT fan, but seeing nfreeman get pumped about something to do with the Bills is pretty cool.

 

I'm still hopeful for this stretch of games coming up, for some stupid reason.

[Doohicksie]

I'm not a TT fan, but seeing nfreeman get pumped about something to do with the Bills is pretty cool.

 

I'm still hopeful for this stretch of games coming up, for some stupid reason.

 

I have a few stupid reasons to get excited about the Bills.  It's the only time I get to hang out with a buncha people from WNY:

 

This guy serves me drinks (and his name's Ty):

 

And the secret ingredient of every Bills win:  Buffalo Trace for everybody!

[That Aud Smell]

IMO, anyone who thinks Taylor has another level to attain in his evolution as a QB is head over heels, daffy in love with hope. Which suits Bills fans, as it happens -- Russ Brandon wants to give such believers a high five.

 

Twenty starts after 3 or so (?) years in the league holding a clipboard is a plenty big sample size. The Seattle game was unusual for him -- achievable, but unusual. He is what he is at this point.

 

The question, to me, is whether the team should pay him big money for what he can do. They probably should -- but only because they have to. It's a sub-optimal solution to the game's most important position.

[Doohicksie]

I think he's regressed a bit, or maybe it's just working with an ever-changing cast of receivers.  Earlier in the season it seemed he stuck with a pass play longer and eventually threw the ball.  Now it seems like he's back to his bad habit of committing to the run as soon as he's flushed out.  But when he hangs in there and sticks with the pass, he's pretty good.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'm not a TT fan , but seeing nfreeman get pumped about something to do with the Bills is pretty cool.

 

I'm still hopeful for this stretch of games coming up, for some stupid reason.

Well there's an understatement :lol:

 

I'm lukewarm. I don't think he's as good as he was last year, and I think that speaks to defenses having a year of tape to look at and his inability to improve in areas that need improvement. He's an average QB who can't do some routine things other average QBs do, but compensates with a couple spectacular plays that other average QBs can't make. But average he remains. I don't think you should pay an average QB $18 million, but the market dictates you do, and given the QB play we've endured for two decades, I can understand the temptation to do it.

 

I think a lot of it comes down to how much the drought really eats at you. If it's a major thing to you, then keeping Tyrod makes sense because he's definitely good enough to get to the playoffs. For me, it's been so long that another year or two honestly doesn't even phase me, and simply making the playoffs without any real confidence in making a run just doesn't do much for me. If I'm the GM, I'm walking away after this season and hoping to find another average QB for less, or ideally, trading for Romo. His inability to throw over the middle of the field and lack of pocket presence, and inability to throw with anticipation are too glaring for me to ignore.

 

But I don't think it's insane to hold on to Tyrod for two more years and keep looking in the meantime (emphasis on keep looking...I fear they'd keep him then stop trying to upgrade). Hey, if Joe Flacco can win a Super Bowl...

Edited November 29, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

I don't think you should pay an average QB $18 million, but the market dictates you do, and given the QB play we've endured for two decades, I can understand the temptation to do it.

 

I've paid so little attention to the numbers on his deal - is that what the next two years would mean, in essence?

His inability to throw over the middle of the field and lack of pocket presence, and inability to throw with anticipation

 

I'd forgotten to mention this one in my takes above. This is probably his biggest failing. I heard John Murphy's talking partner - is it Donald Jones? - talking about this the other day: Tyrod consistently throws only to receivers that he sees as being open, rather than throwing to a receiver (or an area) that he anticipates will be open once the ball arrives. The difference is so slight, but it's everything in the NFL.