Overwhelming guilt

[MattPie]

I just want to see positive growth from the early 20-somethings (and the teenager).  That's what this entire season is all about.  There's going to be plenty of growing pains, but these are the guys we need to turn this team into something in the future.

 

I agree. My biggest hope is Jack shows anything approaching Samson's growth from last year to this year. Sure, I'd have loved to see him come out of the gates as the star we all hope he'll be but I'm not sure how realistic that was going to be on this team in today's NHL.

[Stoner]

I just want to see positive growth from the early 20-somethings (and the teenager).  That's what this entire season is all about.  There's going to be plenty of growing pains, but these are the guys we need to turn this team into something in the future.

The future? In 2020? It was expected that Risto, Rhino and Hula Boy would be good. I was looking for more out of Moulson, Kane, Bogosian and Lehner. Haven't seen it. That makes any hope of being good in the short run less likely. Having not seen it, now I need to see GMTM stay aggressive and do an overhaul, part 2. If that doesn't happen, and it's just draft high again and hope that guy is really good in a few years, I fear we're on the Oilers Timeline, and there will be more losing and mini-tanking to come.

[sabills]

The future? In 2020? It was expected that Risto, Rhino and Hula Boy would be good. I was looking for more out of Moulson, Kane, Bogosian and Lehner. Haven't seen it. That makes any hope of being good in the short run less likely. Having not seen it, now I need to see GMTM stay aggressive and do an overhaul, part 2. If that doesn't happen, and it's just draft high again and hope that guy is really good in a few years, I fear we're on the Oilers Timeline, and there will be more losing and mini-tanking to come.

Moulson:yes, super dissapointing seeing him fall off this way.

Kane: I need more scoring; hopefully he finds his touch.

Bogo: This...is about what I expected. He's Myers v2.0. He has been playing well as of late, and he did miss most of the first half of the season, so maybe he's finding his feet. He's been good with Risto.

Lehner: He's played 4 full games, and last night he was the only player on the ice in the third.  Its way to early for me to say anything about him.

[Stoner]

Moulson:yes, super dissapointing seeing him fall off this way.

Kane: I need more scoring; hopefully he finds his touch.

Bogo: This...is about what I expected. He's Myers v2.0. He has been playing well as of late, and he did miss most of the first half of the season, so maybe he's finding his feet. He's been good with Risto.

Lehner: He's played 4 full games, and last night he was the only player on the ice in the third.  Its way to early for me to say anything about him.

Yeah, Lehner shouldn't be on my list. Not his fault he hasn't shown much. :)

[beerme1]

I'm pretty (read: very very) new here, been a casual reader and have had like 3 posts for a little over a year now, so I don't know if I'm out of line to just start a new thread and whatnot seeing as I'm not one of the SS veterans here but....I must get this off my chest.

 

I was pro-tank last year and at the end of the season I promised to never ever root against the Sabres for as long as i lived. No matter what. And here I am 9 months later hoping for another 30th place finish. It is a subconscious feeling, not by any means my own choice. I just cannot stop thinking 'hey Austin would be another awesome addition'. I tell myself to STFU and that Jack is more than enough for this team(which is true), but the thought keeps creeping back into my head every time I read game recaps or watch the highlights (military in Hawaii, no time to watch the games live) and i just cannot stop it. It leaves me feeling incredibly guilty as a diehard Sabres fan but I just can't get the thought out of my head. 

 

I also understand that a 30th place finish doesn't guarantee the number 1 pick, but you know what I'm saying. 

 

Does anyone out here have even remotely similar sentiments? I hope I'm the only one. 

 

 

Delayed welcome to you. :beer:

 

You are obviously not alone. I was anti tank until just about this time last year when I convinced myself if they're going to suck then at least get a prize. And man did we suck last year.

While we may be near the bottom again we absolutely do not suck this year and are in fact getting some entertainment from them.

If they finish so low as to claim another prize so be it. But my expectation were much higher than that this year.

 

And hey you should start a thread whenever you damn well want. Don't let some email keyboard warrior shy you away from posting!

[That Aud Smell]

I was looking for more out of Moulson, Kane, Bogosian and Lehner. Haven't seen it. That makes any hope of being good in the short run less likely. Having not seen it, now I need to see GMTM stay aggressive and do an overhaul, part 2. If that doesn't happen, and it's just draft high again and hope that guy is really good in a few years, I fear we're on the Oilers Timeline, and there will be more losing and mini-tanking to come.

 

These concerns are valid.

 

I trust that GM TM is smarter than the people who have been managing the Oilers.

 

The things that I think GM TM did not account for or expect are what's happened with Ennis (lost, injured (done for the year?)), Moulson (toast), and Lehner (injured (he has looked the part of late)).

 

Kane is close to making that list, but I think he's done and shown enough to be excluded.

 

The fact that GM TM was reportedly in on Stamkos talks gives me some comfort on his restlessness and desire to build a winner in the near-term. 

[shrader]

The future? In 2020? It was expected that Risto, Rhino and Hula Boy would be good. I was looking for more out of Moulson, Kane, Bogosian and Lehner. Haven't seen it. That makes any hope of being good in the short run less likely. Having not seen it, now I need to see GMTM stay aggressive and do an overhaul, part 2. If that doesn't happen, and it's just draft high again and hope that guy is really good in a few years, I fear we're on the Oilers Timeline, and there will be more losing and mini-tanking to come.

 

I said the early 20-somethings, so that covers both Kane and Lehner.  Bogosian's on the bubble too, but I wasn't including him in my mind when I said it.

[Neo's legacy 61]

Thank you all for the warm welcome. And no, I am not by any means hoping for another tank, I just can't help thinking 'what if'

 

I've actually enjoyed getting a bit pissed off and grumpy over losses. 

 

 

There's a well-regarded regular around here who goes by Neo.

 

Any chance you might (i) post more regularly and (ii) tweak yer handle?

 

There's a well-regarded regular around here who goes by Neo.

 

Any chance you might (i) post more regularly and (ii) tweak yer handle?

  

 

Ugh. Was hoping Neo would drop in to save me, but unless I need all sorts of medications, it's been revealed that Neo's Legacy is, well, Neo's Legacy. In biological terms. Fruit of the loins.

Christ, I need to go to bed.

That is actually the reason for the name. I'm his oldest son, he is the one who showed me this site. I am more than willing to change the name if needed though.

[darksabre]

Thank you all for the warm welcome. And no, I am not by any means hoping for another tank, I just can't help thinking 'what if'

 

  

 

 

That is actually the reason for the name. I'm his oldest son, he is the one who showed me this site. I am more than willing to change the name if needed though.

No way, that's cool! 

[pi2000]

I haven't had even the slightest urge to cheer for losses.   

 

Last season was unique in that by finsihing last we we're guaranteed McEichel.    

 

This season, there are 3 studs in the draft, but finishing last doesn't even guarantee a top 3 pick.   And the consensus number 4 is a defenseman who would fill a huge need on the Sabres.   So it's just not worth the effort to cheer against your favorite team.    Just enjoy watching them grow and battling for wins, let the draft fall how it may. 

[Hoss]

Second, unlike last year, the team finishing DFL can fall as low as 4th.  A more skilled number-cruncher than I am will hopefully figure out the odds of that happening, but on a quick view it looks to me to be about 50% likely.

NBA's chances of the number one team falling to four is 35.7%, so I imagine the NHL is similar to that.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Hoss

[That Aud Smell]

That is actually the reason for the name. I'm his oldest son, he is the one who showed me this site. I am more than willing to change the name if needed though.

 

DUDE!

 

Welcome.

[shrader]

NBA's chances of the number one team falling to four is 35.7%, so I imagine the NHL is similar to that.

 

I just dug this one up through google.  I'm not going to put in the effort to verify it, but it looks good.  So freeman was pretty much dead on, with a 47.5% chance of the worst team drafting 4th.

[That Aud Smell]

Interesting.

 

I am intrigued with how this works, though. How is the selection done?

 

Are there three sequential picks for the top 3 spots? If so, your odds of landing in the top spot are fixed at the outset, but your odds of landing in the 2 or 3 spot will change depending on who wins the #1 spot or the #2 spot. Yeah?

 

So, say, someone beats the odds and wins the #1 overall pick from way back in the pack. If you were DFL, your odds of getting #2 must then be WORSE than they would be if the #29 team had won the #1 pick. Because the #29 team is still there, vying for #2.

 

That Google Doc just seems too linear.

Also, I think that reddit thread is based on the 2015 draft's system.

Another addition: This site

 

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

 

may or may not be legit, but it appears to indicate that the DFL team's chances of picking top 3 are in a range of ~62-65%.

 

so, the chances of DFL picking fourth would be more in that 35-38% range.

[pi2000]

Buffalo is still in 3rd last (based on % of points lost)....

 

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

...which translates to:

 

11.50% chance of picking 1st

34% chance of picking in the top 3

86% chance of picking in the top 5

[That Aud Smell]

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

34% chance of picking in the top 3

86% chance of picking in the top 5

 

Where do those numbers come from?

[TrueBlueGED]

These concerns are valid.

 

I trust that GM TM is smarter than the people who have been managing the Oilers.

 

The things that I think GM TM did not account for or expect are what's happened with Ennis (lost, injured (done for the year?)), Moulson (toast), and Lehner (injured (he has looked the part of late)).

 

Kane is close to making that list, but I think he's done and shown enough to be excluded.

 

The fact that GM TM was reportedly in on Stamkos talks gives me some comfort on his restlessness and desire to build a winner in the near-term.

Funny, I get a little uneasy with it. Like he might be a bit too itchy to win now, thus sacrificing long term competitiveness. Of course, he didn't pull the trigger, so I may be worried over nothing.

Thank you all for the warm welcome. And no, I am not by any means hoping for another tank, I just can't help thinking 'what if'

 

 

 

 

That is actually the reason for the name. I'm his oldest son, he is the one who showed me this site. I am more than willing to change the name if needed though.

You can keep the name, we just want some dirt :p

[Eleven]

I'm pretty (read: very very) new here, been a casual reader and have had like 3 posts for a little over a year now, so I don't know if I'm out of line to just start a new thread and whatnot seeing as I'm not one of the SS veterans here but....I must get this off my chest.

 

I was pro-tank last year and at the end of the season I promised to never ever root against the Sabres for as long as i lived. No matter what. And here I am 9 months later hoping for another 30th place finish. It is a subconscious feeling, not by any means my own choice. I just cannot stop thinking 'hey Austin would be another awesome addition'. I tell myself to STFU and that Jack is more than enough for this team(which is true), but the thought keeps creeping back into my head every time I read game recaps or watch the highlights (military in Hawaii, no time to watch the games live) and i just cannot stop it. It leaves me feeling incredibly guilty as a diehard Sabres fan but I just can't get the thought out of my head. 

 

I also understand that a 30th place finish doesn't guarantee the number 1 pick, but you know what I'm saying. 

 

Does anyone out here have even remotely similar sentiments? I hope I'm the only one. 

 

 

#BellLetsTalk

[nfreeman]

Thank you all for the warm welcome. And no, I am not by any means hoping for another tank, I just can't help thinking 'what if'

 

  

 

 

That is actually the reason for the name. I'm his oldest son, he is the one who showed me this site. I am more than willing to change the name if needed though.

 

Awesome.  Welcome!

 

And to Neo Senior:  good work, sir.

 

I just dug this one up through google.  I'm not going to put in the effort to verify it, but it looks good.  So freeman was pretty much dead on, with a 47.5% chance of the worst team drafting 4th.

Interesting.

 

I am intrigued with how this works, though. How is the selection done?

 

Are there three sequential picks for the top 3 spots? If so, your odds of landing in the top spot are fixed at the outset, but your odds of landing in the 2 or 3 spot will change depending on who wins the #1 spot or the #2 spot. Yeah?

 

So, say, someone beats the odds and wins the #1 overall pick from way back in the pack. If you were DFL, your odds of getting #2 must then be WORSE than they would be if the #29 team had won the #1 pick. Because the #29 team is still there, vying for #2.

 

That Google Doc just seems too linear.

Also, I think that reddit thread is based on the 2015 draft's system.

Another addition: This site

 

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

 

may or may not be legit, but it appears to indicate that the DFL team's chances of picking top 3 are in a range of ~62-65%.

 

so, the chances of DFL picking fourth would be more in that 35-38% range.

 

Thanks Shrader.  Since that spreadsheet supports my position, I will assume it is correct.

 

Here is a link to the spreadsheet, btw:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_WuBgKs0Wxsb2Sqv12H6rtm7P3bGijBHoTtYH-xM6GI/edit#gid=0

 

In particular, the DFL team has a 52.5% chance of falling to #4, and 2nd-last has a 61% chance of falling to #4.

 

As for how the lottery works, here is the NHL's official word:

 

 

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

 

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

 

I'll say it again:  tanking is a loser's play.

[Crusader1969]

Every time I see an Eichel goal i'll try to remind myself that Tanking is for losers.

[Hoss]

Every time I see an Eichel goal i'll try to remind myself that Tanking is for losers.

:D

[That Aud Smell]

Thanks Shrader.  Since that spreadsheet supports my position, I will assume it is correct.

 

Here is a link to the spreadsheet, btw:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_WuBgKs0Wxsb2Sqv12H6rtm7P3bGijBHoTtYH-xM6GI/edit#gid=0

 

In particular, the DFL team has a 52.5% chance of falling to #4, and 2nd-last has a 61% chance of falling to #4.

 

I'm just not so sure. The thread itself is dedicated to the 2015 draft. I see that the worksheet indicates that it is directed to 2016, and seems to square with the idea that a DFL team can pick no lower than 4th.

 

But, still. The static nature of those numbers seems to ignore the shifting nature of the odds themselves. Or maybe he blended the odds of picking 2nd or 3rd for a DFL team.

[SwampD]

Every time I see an Eichel goal i'll try to remind myself that Tanking is for losers.

I have to remind myself the same thing every time I look at where we are in the standings.

[nfreeman]

Every time I see an Eichel goal i'll try to remind myself that Tanking is for losers.

I have to remind myself the same thing every time I look at where we are in the standings.

 

Exactly.  Taylor Hall has scored a ton of goals too. 

[shrader]

I'm just not so sure. The thread itself is dedicated to the 2015 draft. I see that the worksheet indicates that it is directed to 2016, and seems to square with the idea that a DFL team can pick no lower than 4th.

 

But, still. The static nature of those numbers seems to ignore the shifting nature of the odds themselves. Or maybe he blended the odds of picking 2nd or 3rd for a DFL team.

 

The 2016 lottery uses the same exact probabilities as the 2015 one.  The only thing that has changed is that those numbers are then carried over for the 2nd and 3rd pick as well (excluding the winner of the previous picks).  So there is no issue with that at all.

 

As for the sheet itself, you'll just have to take my word for this, but I have wasted some time and verified their numbers for the 2nd overall pick.  Doing the same for the 3rd pick is a bit more tricky and I don't have the time for it right now.  Maybe later, but I'm given reason to believe their work.  Instead, you're going to have to stick with me on a non-math explanation:

 

Hoss previously stated that the NBA lottery has a 35.7% chance of the worst team winding up with the 4th pick.  I'm going to accept this since that lottery has been in place for a while and I'm sure the number is referenced online.  Take a look at their structure:

 

Last: 25% chance of being drawn

2nd last: 19.9%

3rd last: 15.6%

 

Those teams have a better chance of being drawn than the NHL teams (20%, 13.5%, and 11.5% respectively).  So the worst teams in the NBA are going to have a better chance of winding up in the top 3 than they will in the NHL.  Better chance of being drawn = better chance of going in the top 3 = worse chance at picking 4th.  So if that worst team in the NBA has a 64.3% chance of picking in the top 3, the worst team in the NHL is going to have a lower number than that.