2016-'17 Lineup

[Mig22]

What if we leave Carrier-ROR-KO, who in a limited amount of time posted a CF% well over 60%, and put Ennis in Deslauriers' spot when he's back, to make the fourth line our top line from the tank teams? Give them nice and cushy minutes, and get some depth scoring?

Carrier has 4 points in 26 games with plenty of minutes with good linemates.  I don't care how well the shot analytics look, he simply doesn't contribute offensively.  Can be a good player but how long can you support a guy being there without the production?  I just don't think it's good enough.

[Doohicksie]

Carrier has 4 points in 26 games with plenty of minutes with good linemates.  I don't care how well the shot analytics look, he simply doesn't contribute offensively.  Can be a good player but how long can you support a guy being there without the production?  I just don't think it's good enough.

 

If they're winning?  Give him a little more rope.  Maybe he'll start to bring the scoring (like, you know, he did tonight).

[TrueBlueGED]

Carrier has 4 points in 26 games with plenty of minutes with good linemates.  I don't care how well the shot analytics look, he simply doesn't contribute offensively.  Can be a good player but how long can you support a guy being there without the production?  I just don't think it's good enough.

 

1) "Shot analytics" is offensive contribution.

2) You give him more than 26 games.

[Randall Flagg]

Carrier has 4 points in 26 games with plenty of minutes with good linemates.  I don't care how well the shot analytics look, he simply doesn't contribute offensively.  Can be a good player but how long can you support a guy being there without the production?  I just don't think it's good enough.

The alternative, without demolishing lines and pairings that are working nicely, is probably Moulson, right? He provides no scoring OR possession at ES.

[Mig22]

1) "Shot analytics" is offensive contribution.

2) You give him more than 26 games.

Shot Analytics is a proxy for offensive contribution.  Goals and assists, while subject to variation in shot % and save %, are offensive production.  I'm a big fan of analytics (it's my job) but it only captures a certain amount of the variation in production from player to player.  

 

You can give him more than 26 games if there is no better option (or you want to spread production out amongst three lines) but it comes at a cost.  And how many games is enough?  30?  50? 

The alternative, without demolishing lines and pairings that are working nicely, is probably Moulson, right? He provides no scoring OR possession at ES.

Going forward, Ennis I suppose.  I hear your point that it's a matter of 'who else' but that does not mean that Carrier has any intrinsic value at this point...he's just the same as every other available winger (without trashing Jack's world)

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mig22

[TrueBlueGED]

Shot Analytics is a proxy for offensive contribution. Goals and assists, while subject to variation in shot % and save %, are offensive production. I'm a big fan of analytics (it's my job) but it only captures a certain amount of the variation in production from player to player.

 

You can give him more than 26 games if there is no better option (or you want to spread production out amongst three lines) but it comes at a cost. And how many games is enough? 30? 50?

 

Going forward, Ennis I suppose. I hear your point that it's a matter of 'who else' but that does not mean that Carrier has any intrinsic value at this point...he's just the same as every other available winger (without trashing Jack's world)

Well, it's partly a proxy, but also a predictor. I'm not about to argue that Carrier is bound to be an offensive dynamo, but if he maintains the same metrics, I do expect his raw production to increase over time. His GF/60 is lagging well behind his xGF/60, his shooting percentage is lower than we'd expect over the long haul, and he even passes the eye test! He looks like one of our best even strength players, and the underlying numbers back it up, and he's a rookie, so yea, I'm willing to give him a significant amount of time (the rest of the season unless his play tails off).

 

And I certainly wouldn't say he's getting plenty of ice time, or had the best teammates over the course of the season. He's averaging only 9 minutes per game, with zero PP time. We're a crappy ES team (GF/60 is 26th in the league), and most of our offense from even our best players is coming on the PP (team GF/60 on the PP is 8th in the league). The most TOI he's had in any single game is 12:58. And his top linemates have been: O'Reilly (84:14), Grant (65:24), Okposo (60:15), Girgensons (52:23), Reinhart (49:21), and Moulson (30:46). Not horrible, but not exactly (he should have 10 goals!) territory either, and most of those good minutes have come recently.

 

I guess I don't see why you're so fixated on the counting stats on a rookie who is getting limited minutes and no power play time on a bottom-5 even strength scoring team. Given the circumstances, I'm not sure how much more you expect out of him. And yes, as you and Flagg have mentioned, what exactly is the alternative? Ennis even when healthy has looked like hot garbage for nearly two years running. Deslauriers? Moulson? It goes without saying that, long term, you can't have a guy who paces 15 points per season playing with your best players regardless of what the other stats say...but given the circumstances, lack of viable alternatives, and underlying metrics, I think patience is absolutely warranted.

 

Edit: To satisfy my own curiosity, I looked at Reinhart's first 26 NHL games. 7 points while getting ~14 minutes per game. Patience! :)

Edited January 11, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

7-3-2 with Fedun in the lineup, 9-12-7 without him

 

Gorges needs to go

[Mig22]

Not horrible, but not exactly (he should have 10 goals!) territory either, and most of those good minutes have come recently.

 

I guess I don't see why you're so fixated on the counting stats on a rookie who is getting limited minutes and no power play time on a bottom-5 even strength scoring team. Given the circumstances, I'm not sure how much more you expect out of him.

 

Edit: To satisfy my own curiosity, I looked at Reinhart's first 26 NHL games. 7 points while getting ~14 minutes per game. Patience! :)

Fair enough.  Although Reinhart's first 9 don't count and you know it. ;)

 

Hey, we'll see.  To my eye he makes a lot of decision-making mistakes but I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he ends up being a productive team member.  It was a damn nice finish last night.

 

Cheers.

[TrueBlueGED]

Fair enough. Although Reinhart's first 9 don't count and you know it. ;)

 

Hey, we'll see. To my eye he makes a lot of decision-making mistakes but I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he ends up being a productive team member. It was a damn nice finish last night.

 

Cheers.

Yea, I'm not gonna go to battle to count Reinhart's first nine :lol:

 

Maybe I'm overrating Carrier's game because he brings an element of speed and board play that we're sorely lacking, but I've liked his game and think he'll settle into around 30 points once developed.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I know nothing of fancy stats, or even unfancy stats.

 

All I know is I like what Carrier brings to the Sabres.

[WildCard]

Lehner will not make the trip to Tampa or Carolina

[Eleven]

Lehner will not make the trip to Tampa or Carolina

 

Think Ullmark gets a start?  Carolina maybe?

[Doohicksie]

Fair enough.  Although Reinhart's first 9 don't count and you know it. ;)

 

And how many of Carrier's first games don't count?

 

I mean... in the beginning he was just picking up odd minutes here and there, wasn't he?  And even if he were getting prime top six minutes, you could argue that it takes.... probably about 10 games....(?).... to adjust to the speed of the NHL.

[Mig22]

And how many of Carrier's first games don't count?

 

I mean... in the beginning he was just picking up odd minutes here and there, wasn't he?  And even if he were getting prime top six minutes, you could argue that it takes.... probably about 10 games....(?).... to adjust to the speed of the NHL.

Fair point also.  I just don't see the guy even getting close to points most nights no matter how hard he appears to play.  Frankly, he looks like Bailey to me:  a prospect maybe, an AHL player, or a fill in (which I guess he is at this point).   But as I said, we'll see.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Doohicksie]

It seems like Bailey/Carrier/Baptiste/Fasching show glimpses of being Very Good Players, but their consistency is lacking.  I kind of get the impression that every time they're sent down, they use that as an opportunity to work on aspects of their game that were found wanting in the NHL, and when they return to the Sabres, they're that much better for it.  They're not top players in the sense of a Reinhart or Eichel, but they may each prove to be a very valuable part of a highly competitive team.

 

Early in the season someone complained that some of these guys didn't make the NHL roster and wondering if they'd ever break in.  My response at the time was that injuries happen and they'd get their chances.  Unfortunately, that's come to pass.  Fortunately, bringing those guys up isn't so much of a downgrade anymore.

[nfreeman]

7-3-2 with Fedun in the lineup, 9-12-7 without him

 

Gorges needs to go

Interesting.

Fair point also. I just don't see the guy even getting close to points most nights no matter how hard he appears to play. Frankly, he looks like Bailey to me: a prospect maybe, an AHL player, or a fill in (which I guess he is at this point). But as I said, we'll see. I hope I'm wrong.

I agree with this.

[Peppy22]

As soon as Ennis get's back I am putting him on line 1 with Eichel... Give Jack some people who can skate....

Ennis Eichel Okposo

Kane O'Reilly Reinhart

Carrier Gionta Foligno

Bailey Girgensons Moulson

Edited January 14, 2017 by Peppy22

[woods-racer]

As soon as Ennis get's back I am putting him on line 1 with Eichel... Give Jack some people who can skate....

Ennis Eichel Okposo

Kane O'Reilly Reinhart

Carrier Gionta Foligno

Bailey Girgensons Moulson

 

 

Can't tell me this line up isn't heads-n-shoulders better than last year even, yet we are hoping for more production. Why?

[bob_sauve28]

 

Our defense is simply too slow for the NHL. After Risto and Jake M. the rest can't really provide the speed necessary to make plays. That is what's wrong with this team. We need at least two more young defenseman with good wheels

[inkman]

Our defense is simply too slow for the NHL. After Risto and Jake M. the rest can't really provide the speed necessary to make plays. That is what's wrong with this team. We need at least two more young defenseman with good wheels

Guhle will be here soon enough. Unless the 2017 draft produces an immediate starter, GMTM will have to move assets to get one.

[TrueBlueGED]

Our defense is simply too slow for the NHL. After Risto and Jake M. the rest can't really provide the speed necessary to make plays. That is what's wrong with this team. We need at least two more young defenseman with good wheels

I hate Bogo, but the guy has wheels. So does Kulikov. Our D has some serious problems, but when healthy, I don't think speed is one of them.

[inkman]

I hate Bogo, but the guy has wheels. So does Kulikov. Our D has some serious problems, but when healthy, I don't think speed is one of them.

Speaking of health, BOGO looks like he labors Everytime he's on the ice. I'd be shocked if he weren't fairly injured still.

[bob_sauve28]

Speaking of health, BOGO looks like he labors Everytime he's on the ice. I'd be shocked if he weren't fairly injured still.

I've always thought his problem was in his head. He just seems like a space case. Has the physical tools but just tries to play beyond his limits at times or is just out to lunch at other times.

[Brawndo]

Bailey and Ullmark returned to Rochester.

 

Ennis and Lehner must be good to go for Monday

 

 

And D Lo survives again

[TrueBlueGED]

Bailey and Ullmark returned to Rochester.

 

Ennis and Lehner must be good to go for Monday

 

 

And D Lo survives again

I'm actually okay with Bailey going down, he's been turd-like for a few games now. But Baptiste should absolutely be up and playing above Deslauriers.