How far are the Sabres from a playoff berth this year?

[JJFIVEOH]

I guess I'm just not that hip. 

[PromoTheRobot]

We're at 2.2% chance of making the playoffs right now.  I'd say this season will be a huge success if they can merely make the playoff chase interesting...as in getting within 5 pts of the last spot within the last 10-15 games.  I'll be optimistic and put the chances of that happening at 20%.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

In simple terms, we need 20 ROW wins out of 36 remaining games, with a few OTL's thrown in.

[Jsixspd]

This season is, and has always been, a write-off.  Realistically the only thing we could expect this year was substantial improvement over last season, building towards a push for the playoffs in Spring 2017.

 

HOWEVER,  if they only hit the 65-70 point mark this year,  I'm going to be very concerned they can improve enough off season to squeak into the playoffs NEXT year.   Let's see where we are in a month.    

[Jsixspd]

A continued concern remains scoring.  Last year we finished dead last in the league at 1.87 goals for per game.   We're doing better at 2.28, but we're still 27th in the NHL.   We need guys who are a consistent scoring threat.     We just don't have enough goal scorers on the team yet.  O'Reilly has slipped a bit - he was in the top 20 in the league in goals scored, but now is 22nd.  Eichel is the 2nd most productive player, but he's way down at 50th.  Our 3rd best,  Reinhart, is 81st.   4th best - Kane and McGinn are waaaay down in 121st place.   No point in digging beyond 4th - we've got to go down into the bowels of the NHL rankings.  

Eichel is in a good place for a rookie.  But  team simply needs a lot  more firepower, plain and simple.  

 

[Crusader1969]

A continued concern remains scoring.  Last year we finished dead last in the league at 1.87 goals for per game.   We're doing better at 2.28, but we're still 27th in the NHL.   We need guys who are a consistent scoring threat.     We just don't have enough goal scorers on the team yet.  O'Reilly has slipped a bit - he was in the top 20 in the league in goals scored, but now is 22nd.  Eichel is the 2nd most productive player, but he's way down at 50th.  Our 3rd best,  Reinhart, is 81st.   4th best - Kane and McGinn are waaaay down in 121st place.   No point in digging beyond 4th - we've got to go down into the bowels of the NHL rankings.  

 

Eichel is in a good place for a rookie.  But  team simply needs a lot  more firepower, plain and simple.  

 

 

 

 

you are absolutely right, we need more firepower on the wings. You aren't going to find it through free agency and its going to be difficult to swing another big time trade like we saw with Kane and O'Reilly. So that leaves one place to get it - the Draft and the higher the pick the better. Im not at the point of cheering for the Sabres to lose but I am definitely cheering for any team within 5 points of the Sabres to win (Jets, Flames, Oilers, Leafs, Ducks and Blue Jackets). 

 

They are right on pace for 73 points, a huge 20 point improvement over last year and still would finish bottom 3 to 5. Win / Win in my books

[Taro T]

A continued concern remains scoring.  Last year we finished dead last in the league at 1.87 goals for per game.   We're doing better at 2.28, but we're still 27th in the NHL.   We need guys who are a consistent scoring threat.     We just don't have enough goal scorers on the team yet.  O'Reilly has slipped a bit - he was in the top 20 in the league in goals scored, but now is 22nd.  Eichel is the 2nd most productive player, but he's way down at 50th.  Our 3rd best,  Reinhart, is 81st.   4th best - Kane and McGinn are waaaay down in 121st place.   No point in digging beyond 4th - we've got to go down into the bowels of the NHL rankings.  

Eichel is in a good place for a rookie.  But  team simply needs a lot  more firepower, plain and simple.

 

So, what you're saying is the Sabres top scorer is in the top 30 in a 30 team league. And their 2nd scorer is top 60 (30×2) in a 30 team league. And their 3rd scorer is top 90 (30x3) in a 30 team league. And their 4th scorer just misses top 120 (30x4) but thier 5th scorer is well inside the top 150 (30x5) both in same 30 team league.

 

Yes, they need to score more, but it looks like the top guys (2 of whom are rookies) are, or are close to, holding up their end. My guess is that the lower guys are off the charts lower than they should be. Combine that w/ a least a couple of those low end guys having been expected to be leaders and we might see where the issue is. ;)

[pi2000]

A continued concern remains scoring.  Last year we finished dead last in the league at 1.87 goals for per game.   We're doing better at 2.28, but we're still 27th in the NHL.   We need guys who are a consistent scoring threat.     We just don't have enough goal scorers on the team yet.  O'Reilly has slipped a bit - he was in the top 20 in the league in goals scored, but now is 22nd.  Eichel is the 2nd most productive player, but he's way down at 50th.  Our 3rd best,  Reinhart, is 81st.   4th best - Kane and McGinn are waaaay down in 121st place.   No point in digging beyond 4th - we've got to go down into the bowels of the NHL rankings.  

 

Eichel is in a good place for a rookie.  But  team simply needs a lot  more firepower, plain and simple.  

 

 

 

Building scoring depth is a multi year process.    They just need to keep improving year over year.     They're on the right track.

[LGR4GM]

you are absolutely right, we need more firepower on the wings. You aren't going to find it through free agency and its going to be difficult to swing another big time trade like we saw with Kane and O'Reilly. So that leaves one place to get it - the Draft and the higher the pick the better. Im not at the point of cheering for the Sabres to lose but I am definitely cheering for any team within 5 points of the Sabres to win (Jets, Flames, Oilers, Leafs, Ducks and Blue Jackets). 

 

They are right on pace for 73 points, a huge 20 point improvement over last year and still would finish bottom 3 to 5. Win / Win in my books

I think the Sabres need to continue building through the draft. Pittsburgh never bothered and only managed 1 cup.  I won't cheer other teams or loses, but I would like to see Murray draft some good and depth guys to improve our prospect pool and give us options when we do have injuries. 

 

I want our NHL guys fighting to keep jobs and our AHL guys fighting to take those jobs.

[beerme1]

.I won't cheer other teams or loses,

 

 

I cant but feel good whenever Toronto, Boston or Montreal lose.

[Jsixspd]

 

 

They are right on pace for 73 points, a huge 20 point improvement over last year and still would finish bottom 3 to 5. Win / Win in my books

The Sabres have been HISTORICALLY bad the past couple years.  To put 73 points into prospective

 

I went back and looked at the seasonal points of the worst 5 teams in the NHL for the previous 5 complete seasons (didn't use 2012-13 - the partial season), excluding Buffalo's amazingly bad 2014-15 and 2013-14.  

 

The average of 5 teams for 5 years =  73.4 points.

 

A team that scores 73 points on a season is a POOR team.   Let's be blunt.  It's bottom barrel performance -  most years, 73 points would be the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NHL.

 

I was hoping this year we'd hit in the low 80s.     73?  That would be represent going from abominable to just plain awful.   :( 

So, what you're saying is the Sabres top scorer is in the top 30 in a 30 team league. And their 2nd scorer is top 60 (30×2) in a 30 team league. And their 3rd scorer is top 90 (30x3) in a 30 team league. And their 4th scorer just misses top 120 (30x4) but thier 5th scorer is well inside the top 150 (30x5) both in same 30 team league.

 

Yes, they need to score more, but it looks like the top guys (2 of whom are rookies) are, or are close to, holding up their end. My guess is that the lower guys are off the charts lower than they should be. Combine that w/ a least a couple of those low end guys having been expected to be leaders and we might see where the issue is. ;)

That's out of the goal scoring players in the NHL, not teams.   There are more than 30 of them - lol.  ;)   

And our rookies are doing great - I think there's a great future ahead for Eichel.   

[Samson's Flow]

So, what you're saying is the Sabres top scorer is in the top 30 in a 30 team league. And their 2nd scorer is top 60 (30×2) in a 30 team league. And their 3rd scorer is top 90 (30x3) in a 30 team league. And their 4th scorer just misses top 120 (30x4) but thier 5th scorer is well inside the top 150 (30x5) both in same 30 team league.

 

Yes, they need to score more, but it looks like the top guys (2 of whom are rookies) are, or are close to, holding up their end. My guess is that the lower guys are off the charts lower than they should be. Combine that w/ a least a couple of those low end guys having been expected to be leaders and we might see where the issue is. ;)

Taro - good point, but remember that if you are comparing scorers that way, if we have one guy in each 30 player group, that means we are only keeping up with the average. So the top 5 players we have are allowing us to be ranked ~15th in scoring, not exactly world beaters.

 

I agree that the goal scoring is really struggling for our team once you look past the top line and to the bottom half of our forwards. Those are the guys that are dragging us down to the bottom in scoring pace.

[Taro T]

Taro - good point, but remember that if you are comparing scorers that way, if we have one guy in each 30 player group, that means we are only keeping up with the average. So the top 5 players we have are allowing us to be ranked ~15th in scoring, not exactly world beaters.

 

I agree that the goal scoring is really struggling for our team once you look past the top line and to the bottom half of our forwards. Those are the guys that are dragging us down to the bottom in scoring pace.

Actually, they'd seem to be on pace to have the team about 20th in goal scoring if the rest of the crew kept pace. But isn't that what we expected this team to be? Roughly 20th overall?

[Samson's Flow]

Actually, they'd seem to be on pace to have the team about 20th in goal scoring if the rest of the crew kept pace. But isn't that what we expected this team to be? Roughly 20th overall?

Considering last year they were one of the lowest scoring teams in history, I would say 20th is quite the improvement. But again, the bottom half of the roster and the injuries have dragged them down.

[Taro T]

The Sabres have been HISTORICALLY bad the past couple years.  To put 73 points into prospective

 

I went back and looked at the seasonal points of the worst 5 teams in the NHL for the previous 5 complete seasons (didn't use 2012-13 - the partial season), excluding Buffalo's amazingly bad 2014-15 and 2013-14.  

The average of 5 teams for 5 years =  73.4 points.

 

A team that scores 73 points on a season is a POOR team.   Let's be blunt.  It's bottom barrel performance -  most years, 73 points would be the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NHL.

I was hoping this year we'd hit in the low 80s.     73?  That would be represent going from abominable to just plain awful.   :( 

That's out of the goal scoring players in the NHL, not teams.   There are more than 30 of them - lol.  ;)   And our rookies are doing great - I think there's a great future ahead for Eichel.

 

There ARE more than 30 goal scorers (That's kind of how you end up with 600 or so active players in the league - 20 dressed for 30 teams ;)), the point was ON AVERAGE a teams top goal scorer will end up in the top 30 (not exactly true, as there is no tail above the top 30 for them to filter into), & on average their 2nd goal scorer will be between 31-60, etc, etc on down through the line.

 

This isn't like the late '90's where the Sabres top scorer was barely cracking the top 100. You should expect for an average team the sort of distribution the Sabres have.

[beerme1]

.I was hoping this year we'd hit in the low 80s.     73?  That would be represent going from abominable to just plain awful.   :(

 

And our rookies are doing great - I think there's a great future ahead for Eichel.   

 

 

Do your eyes tell you we are just plain awful this year or just those fancy stats?