Evander Kane: Overrated or Under-Appreciated

[LGR4GM]

Evander Kane came to this team in a massive trade. We were promised we were getting a top 3 winger with grit but maybe some attitude issues. Note that this thread is not about his value in the trade. We are talking about his contributions this year to the Sabres in terms of how it has helped or hurt the team. To date Kane has been injured once, gone for long periods without scoring, bounced around the lineup, had a police investigation opened and endeared himself to several teammates with commendable on ice acts worthy of being a teammate.  Kane has also taken an interest in the local charities of Buffalo and has on several occasions helped out around town.

 

However I don't really care about his extracurricular activities.  What I do care about is his career to date.  Has he played where he should and gotten unlucky with scoring or is he overrated and will never be a 70pt 25-30g guy?

 

First let's look at the numbers. His career shot % is not high for a top 3 scoring winger.  His sh% is .088 for his career. In all honesty I would want my winger to have a % closer to .110 or so.  Currently however Kane is at .066% which means statistically speaking instead of having 8 goals this season, he should have 10.6 goals.  I think that this year is an outlier down year for his shot. He is coming off of shoulder surgery and has had some issues meshing with his linemates.  Kane is a puck carrier and as we saw, putting him with another puck carrier like Eichel was a recipe for nothing.

 

Second we need to look at his ppg totals and see how he is performing there. Not counting this year, Kane has played 361 NHL games and has .615 ppg.  This year in 33 games his ppg is 0.455.  If he were at his average he would have 20.3 points instead of the 15 he has.  Now this for me is more concerning. 

 

His sh% can be explained IMO because new system, coming off shoulder surgery, dealing with a bad line mate (in terms of playing styles, not saying Eichel is bad I love how he is developing), so I understand why his sh% was down.  His ppg however is a little more troubling.  Yes it would be down because he isn't shooting his best. However the decline is more than his sh% would allow in my mind.  This is the part that is disappointing.  If Kane is still getting his shot up to par after shoulder surgery he needs to be contributing in other ways.

 

Let us now take a look at how Evander is being used by Bylsma. Kane's o-zone starts are up from from last year in Winnipeg but down slightly from his career average in Winnipeg.  59.9% versus the 57% he is getting this year. In the last 4 years in WP he averaged 19.24 TOI and he is currently averaging 20.4 TOI here in Buffalo. His higher ice time would lend me to believe he should be scoring slightly more PPG then before, which he is not doing. His points per 60mins have dropped from 1.8 last year to 1.3 this year. Now we could say "well maybe Kane is not shooting more and so he needs more opportunities to shoot etc.." but that would be incorrect as his shots per 60mins have gone up .1 from last season.

 

Now let's get to the last advanced stats we need to discuss.  His Corsi and Fenwick. His last 4 years in Winnipeg he averaged a Corsi% in all situations of 54.2 and this year his Corsi is at 54.8% leading me to believe his possesion skills are exactly where they should be. His Fenwick in WP was 54.1 where currently in Buffalo it sits at 56.0.  His CF% Rel is 6.6 and his FW% Rel is 8 for this who want to know the advanced stuff.  Okay so what does this mean? Well to put it in perspective we all love ROR and he arguably is playing against tougher opponents but just so you have a benchmark, ROR's Corsi, Fenwick and C Rel and F Rel are: 52.9c, 54.2f, 4.8crel, and 6.6frel.  So Kane is successful in the possession game. (Note I am not in anyway implying he is better than ROR just wanted readers to have a comparison for someone we know is a possession leader and amazing player)

 

If I put this all together I see a player who is neither an offensive driver like Eichel or ROR (a driver is someone who is the reason their linemates are scoring be it through sound possession play or just raw unyielding talent) or an offensive passenger like Moulson or Foligno ( a offensive passenger is someone who needs a linemate to help them generate their offense). Kane falls somewhere in between these two classifications and is more offensive freelancer or someone who sometimes contributes by driving or sometimes is a passenger.  He is playing below where I would like to see his game.  His sh% is abysmal and I think Jack Eichel could teach him a thing or twenty about having an elite shot. In the last week I have witnessed an increase in his ability to be aggressive on the forecheck and a willingness to battle in all situations.  His pass to Reinhart might very well be a turning point but we have to see it. 

 

I do not think that Evander is overrated, but I believe he is having a statistically below normal season.  I think there are parts to his game that need some work but I also would not say he is under-appreciated.  I think for me right now I can't answer my own question because I haven't witnessed enough of Kane to form a solid opinion on the player he is. 

 

With that in mind, what say you? Overrated or Under-Appreciated? 

Edited January 15, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Stoner]

Under over-rated.

[dudacek]

Antics

[Derrico]

Kane must have the quietest 8 goals on the team.  I had to double check when you noted his goal total.  I can remember the snipe he had against Toronto early in the season but that's about it.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Under over-rated.

 

I'll take the over under-rated.

[bob_sauve28]

Jury is still out

 

 

Oops, perhaps the wrong way to put that, but you know what I mean 

[qwksndmonster]

I've been underwhelmed by Kane so far, but his usage hasn't been optimized.

 

My take based on his games as a Sabre so far are that he doesn't have the hockey brainthinkins to be a top line winger. I think he'll be a 1st/2nd line tweener when/if he hits his stride.

Edited January 15, 2016 by qwksndmonster

[Doohicksie]

Oops, perhaps the wrong way to put that, but you know what I mean 

 

:flirt:

 

 

With all the analytics wrangling in the first post, the one thing that stood out was how alarmed you were about PPG.  I'm not sure why that's troubling, considering you mentioned the issue meshing with linemates.  If you accept that yes, DD has had difficulty figuring out where to plug him in, then yeah the lower PPG makes sense.

 

As for the original question, I'm willing to give Kane an Incomplete for now.  I think he's starting to find the chemistry, and DD is starting to figure out how to use him.  I'm not too worried about Kane's game.  It'll come.

[WildCard]

Awesome post Liger, thanks for that.

 

Those CF and FF rel %'s are absolutely insane. Bergeron holds 5.1 and 5.6 in those categories respectively  (even strength though). Holding onto possession for that long, and having such an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage and ppg rate, tells me Kane is pushed to the outside and taking very low percentage shots, and it takes him a long time to get them off. The good news is, it indicates he spends very little time in his zone, which should be consistent when viewing his games (i.e. I rarely notice Kane stuck in his own zone). The bad news is, Kane isn't getting to the dirty areas. He's cycling, and cycling, and cycling, until a point shot goes wide or he just shoots it from some insane angle. The best news is, this is pretty easily correctable with some coaching and a better blue line.

Edited January 15, 2016 by WildCard

[Marvelo]

Antics

What are these things called Antics?

Edited January 15, 2016 by Marvelo

[inkman]

I wish there were more choices.  I feel like he's having a down year but will bounce back with a strong half and emergence of some young stars to play with. 

[3putt]

I voted overrated for the sole reason that his type of game, bull in a china shop, seems a bit out of date for most top six.  I will hedge that with the observation that in the last two games he exhibited better hands and a bit better discretion in the passing game so maybe it is still a settling in process.  I think he has been a surprise defensively in a positive way.

[WildCard]

Where are you getting those stats, Liger? I have Kane's CF% rel: 5.1, and his FF% rel: 7.6. Still great numbers though

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kaneev01.html

Edit: Liger's are for all situations, mine relate to even strength

 

It's important to note that these possession stats are a huge, huge anomaly for Kane. His career totals are:

 

CF% rel: .3

FF% rel: .4

 

So whereas we have a much higher possession forward in Kane, we've lost nearly all of his scoring. Combine that with his shot % and point totals, and we have a very telling story. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Where are you getting those stats, Liger? I have Kane's CF% rel: 5.1, and his FF% rel: 7.6. Still great numbers though

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kaneev01.html

 

It's important to note that these possession stats are a huge, huge anomaly for Kane. His career totals are:

 

CF% rel: -2.9

FF% rel: -3.0

 

So whereas we have a much higher possession forward in Kane, we've lost nearly all of his scoring. Combine that with his shot % and point totals, and we have a very telling story. 

I got them from here

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kaneev01-additional.html

[WildCard]

I got them from here

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kaneev01-additional.html

Games played are the same, but toi, and everything else is entirely different. Why?

 

Edit: Because I can't read. Your chart is for all ice time, mine is for even strength only. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Also where did you get his relative Corsi for his career? Those two numbers even on your chart are for his first 2 years in the NHL when he played for ATL not his career numbers. His career numbers according to your link is 0.3rc and 0.4rf

[WildCard]

Also where did you get his relative Corsi for his career? Those two numbers even on your chart are for his first 2 years in the NHL when he played for ATL not his career numbers. His career numbers according to your link is 0.3rc and 0.4rf

Yeap, read that wrong too. 

 

Career, even strength, CF% and FF%:

 

CF% rel: .3

FF% rel: .4

 

Not nearly as bad as I originally posted. My mistake. Between this and nhlnumbers, my illiteracy is truly becoming apparent. I guess I really am Charlie

Edited January 15, 2016 by WildCard

[K-9]

Awesome post Liger, thanks for that.

 

Those CF and FF rel %'s are absolutely insane. Bergeron holds 5.1 and 5.6 in those categories respectively. Holding onto possession for that long, and having such an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage and ppg rate, tells me Kane is pushed to the outside and taking very low percentage shots, and it take shim a long time to get them off. The good news is, it indicates he spends very little time in his zone, which should be consistent when viewing his games (i.e. I rarely notice Kane stuck in his own zone). The bad news is, Kane isn't getting to the dirty areas. He's cycling, and cycling, and cycling, until a point shot goes wide or he just shoots it from some insane angle. The best news is, this is pretty easily correctable with some coaching and a better blue line.

Good stuff here. As I read your post, I pictured the EXACT Kane I've observed all season long.

 

He brings hustle and effort to every game from what I've seen. And he is not easy to play against. He is effective if not productive. If that makes any sense.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[JohnnyK]

1st off...

Kane will be fine.

2nd off...

most or all of the sabres #s are down (stats r 4 losers!)

DB needs to play Kane with players who go to the net and throw pucks to the net...oh wait we don't have many

Kane is a force that other team fear and plan ahead for.

if or when the sabres make the playoffs Kane is the type of player that plays well when the going gets tough...See the jets fans comments from last year

 

ps did I mention Kane will be fine!

pps Go Sabres, keep bring in real "Hockey" players to Buffalo

[BuffalOhio]

While I think he has a lot of tools, I'm tired of him making what I have come to call "Pee-Wee Plays."  His shots from anywhere only serve the puck right to the opponent.  His passing and playmaking is terrible and need improvement.  

 

I'm glad he's a Sabre, because we don't have enough players with his speed and toughness, but he has to start using his linemates more.