Tank 3.0

[French Collection]

I don't think it will happen, but the key indicator will be if our roster is depleted by trades and or injuries, and Matt Ellis is called up.

[Derrico]

He was disappointed last year too and we all know his goal was not to make the team better in the standings.  I firmly believe he wants 9-10th and just outside the playoffs. He wants a shot at the lottery picks and knows next year is when it all begins. He can't come out and say he wants a top 3 pick, but he can absolutely say what you refer to... "It's a nice consolation prize."  

 

There's nothing he can actually say that would be along the lines of "We're not going to make the playoffs this year, it's not even our goal."

 

 

The good news is that he's in the driver seat on any moves. I don't think it's pro-tank because there wasn't a tank, there wouldn't be another one. If he moves a player he's going to get value back.

Above are the lottery odds.  The bottom four teams that miss the playoffs still have an over 90% chance that they don't win a top 3 pick.  Sure it would be great to win the lottery but basic math shows the odds are still severely stacked against those teams.  I would think GMTM would rather the Sabres make the playoffs and gain valuable experience for the young guns then go into another lottery in which the odds are still stacked against them winning.  So many people have this dream that we will just miss the playoffs but win the lottery.  Possible?  Sure.  But here are the odds.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Derrico

[LTS]

Good stuff on the odds.  I still disagree that he would prefer to take 8th place into the playoffs but he wins either way right?

 

If the Sabres end up in the 25th-21st place they have a decent enough shot at a top 3 but even if they don't they still have a pretty good pick and momentum into next year which is what matters.

 

If they make the playoffs then people will be happy no matter what.  The only problem is that they have to improve even more next year.  There's increased pressure but still a decent outcome.

 

I look at the roster today and I see things stacked up quite nicely.  The proper number of trade deadline players, the proper number of RFAs and the a timeline of expiring contracts that works out well with player development.

 

The only thing with someone like McGinn is whether you want to keep a guy like that around rather than move him at the deadline.  He's bound to draw interest at the rate he's playing and I am sure his pairing up with certain lines and players this year is definitely a step towards maximizing his deadline value.

[Derrico]

Good post.  If I knew the Sabres would get one more top 3 pick I would rather have that then a first round exit but based on the odds, I'd much rather make the playoffs then miss out by a couple of points.  Things do look good for us in the not too distant future.  Seeing Reinhart develop in front of our eyes is a thing of beauty.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Derrico

[LTS]

Good post.  If I knew the Sabres would get one more top 3 pick I would rather have that then a first round exit but based on the odds, I'd much rather make the playoffs then miss out by a couple of points.  Things do look good for us in the not too distant future.  Seeing Reinhart develop in front of our eyes is a thing of beauty.

 

Indeed. I'd pretty much add that watching the whole thing develop is pretty awesome. I think we'll continue to enjoy the moves that are made and the improvements this team makes throughout this year and the next. It's definitely fun to watch..

[pi2000]

Above are the lottery odds.  The bottom four teams that miss the playoffs still have an over 90% chance that they don't win a top 3 pick.  Sure it would be great to win the lottery but basic math shows the odds are still severely stacked against those teams.  I would think GMTM would rather the Sabres make the playoffs and gain valuable experience for the young guns then go into another lottery in which the odds are still stacked against them winning.  So many people have this dream that we will just miss the playoffs but win the lottery.  Possible?  Sure.  But here are the odds.

 

There's incentive to drop from 21st to 22nd and from 27th to 28th.    Buffalo currently sits in 25th, 3 points ahead of 28th (ANA).

[LTS]

I wonder if Anaheim is tanking to pull in a young gun...

 

How else does Getzlaf suck so much this year?

 

Bring on the theories!

[Derrico]

I donno, only team I can think of that is actively tanking is Columbus.  That's the only logic explanation for bringing in John friggen Tortorella to coach that team.  The bottom of the league standings look pretty close until you realize the Jackets have played 4 more games than most of the other bottom feeders.  The good ol Shart standings would show there's a decent gap between Columbus and everyone else right now.

[bcsaberks]

NOOOOOOO

 

 

:worthy:

 

Put me in the anti-Byslma group.  I guess it's the "veteran respect" play but that was some mess again w/ Ennis on point on PP1 and then in shoot-out.   Least he seems to have come to his senses w/ Gionta and is dialing him back.

 

Thanks for the odds chart Derrico.

[pi2000]

I wonder if Anaheim is tanking to pull in a young gun...

 

How else does Getzlaf suck so much this year?

 

Bring on the theories!

 

I live in Orange County and nobody can understand why Boudreau still still has a job.    Not much talk about it in the media tho, so it goes with hockey in southern california.

[That Aud Smell]

I wonder if Anaheim is tanking to pull in a young gun...

 

How else does Getzlaf suck so much this year?

 

Bring on the theories!

 

It seems to defy explanation.

[inkman]

I wonder if Anaheim is tanking to pull in a young gun...

 

How else does Getzlaf suck so much this year?

 

Bring on the theories!

Players don't tank. Maybe he's just old.

[nfreeman]

Good stuff on the odds.  I still disagree that he would prefer to take 8th place into the playoffs but he wins either way right?

 

If the Sabres end up in the 25th-21st place they have a decent enough shot at a top 3 but even if they don't they still have a pretty good pick and momentum into next year which is what matters.

 

If they make the playoffs then people will be happy no matter what.  The only problem is that they have to improve even more next year.  There's increased pressure but still a decent outcome.

 

I look at the roster today and I see things stacked up quite nicely.  The proper number of trade deadline players, the proper number of RFAs and the a timeline of expiring contracts that works out well with player development.

 

The only thing with someone like McGinn is whether you want to keep a guy like that around rather than move him at the deadline.  He's bound to draw interest at the rate he's playing and I am sure his pairing up with certain lines and players this year is definitely a step towards maximizing his deadline value.

 

My 2 cents is that GMTM and everyone else would prefer making the playoffs over missing them.

 

Interesting point on McGinn.  There is a reasonable possibility that the Sabres will be on the bubble (maybe 3-4 points out of the playoffs) as we approach the trade deadline, and McGinn will have played most of the year with ROR and Reino and be on pace for close to 20 goals and a ton of hits.  That's the kind of player that the GM of a playoff team trades, say, a 2nd-round pick for, or even a low first if he gets back, say, McGinn and a #3.  What would GMTM do in that scenario?  Take the trade return and weaken his team down the stretch?  Or keep McGinn and try to make the playoffs?

[WildCard]

I wonder if Anaheim is tanking to pull in a young gun...

 

How else does Getzlaf suck so much this year?

 

Bring on the theories!

Anaheim is not tanking. They've been successful for years and were WC favorites this year. I still don't think they'll tank, but they'll be bad enough for a top 5 pick

 

Players don't tank. Maybe he's just old.

Agreed. I don't know about his age being a factor, but he did just turn 30, and has never been in this slump before

[LTS]

Players don't tank. Maybe he's just old.

 

Maybe!  I think he's betting on the Ducks this season.  It worked in BU.  (yea... all of this, including the Ducks tanking is not serious on my part).

 

Anaheim is not tanking. They've been successful for years and were WC favorites this year. I still don't think they'll tank, but they'll be bad enough for a top 5 pick

 

Agreed. I don't know about his age being a factor, but he did just turn 30, and has never been in this slump before

 

It's incredible just how much trouble they are having.  Something is rotten there...

[WildCard]

It's incredible just how much trouble they are having.  Something is rotten there...

That scenario usually screams discord between the coaches and players

[MattPie]

If we get towards end of Jan, early Feb, and playoffs are not within reach, then I think you might see some pro-tank moves from GMTM.

 

Although I'm not sure what pro-tank maneuvers he has left up his sleeve.    Trading away guys like Ennis, Gorges or Gionta for picks?   Maybe move CJ while he's hot?  Packaging some roster players and prospects for an injured star player?   or young defenseman (Tyson Barrie!)?

 

So is everyone OK that apparently a "Tank" is now synonymous with "any move that makes a team worse in the short run"? Every team that's not looking to the playoffs in February would be smart to look at assets to sell off. CJ is a prime example of a normal hockey deal in February. Unless you figure CJ is Sabres' GT of the future, you trade him to a playoff team looking to solidify their backup position for a pick. I don't see CJ getting signed by the Sabres and he's UFA this year.

 

My 2 cents is that GMTM and everyone else would prefer making the playoffs over missing them.

 

Interesting point on McGinn.  There is a reasonable possibility that the Sabres will be on the bubble (maybe 3-4 points out of the playoffs) as we approach the trade deadline, and McGinn will have played most of the year with ROR and Reino and be on pace for close to 20 goals and a ton of hits.  That's the kind of player that the GM of a playoff team trades, say, a 2nd-round pick for, or even a low first if he gets back, say, McGinn and a #3.  What would GMTM do in that scenario?  Take the trade return and weaken his team down the stretch?  Or keep McGinn and try to make the playoffs?

 

McGinn is an interesting one. I'd lean towards keeping him (and re-sign) unless the trade is great or he wants a ton of money. A cheap guy that you can plug into your 1/2 line and be productive seems like an asset in terms of getting the most out of the cap.

[nfreeman]

So is everyone OK that apparently a "Tank" is now synonymous with "any move that makes a team worse in the short run"? Every team that's not looking to the playoffs in February would be smart to look at assets to sell off. CJ is a prime example of a normal hockey deal in February. Unless you figure CJ is Sabres' GT of the future, you trade him to a playoff team looking to solidify their backup position for a pick. I don't see CJ getting signed by the Sabres and he's UFA this year.

 

 

McGinn is an interesting one. I'd lean towards keeping him (and re-sign) unless the trade is great or he wants a ton of money. A cheap guy that you can plug into your 1/2 line and be productive seems like an asset in terms of getting the most out of the cap.

 

CJ is also an interesting one, and probably illustrates the point I was making about McGinn even better than McGinn does.  If the Sabres are on the playoff bubble and their goalie situation is more or less what it is now -- i.e. CJ getting more than half the starts and generally playing well -- then trading him will probably torpedo their playoff chances.  Would GMTM do this for the 2nd- or 3rd-rounder that CJ would probably bring in trade?

 

I doubt it, but it certainly could happen.

[MattPie]

CJ is also an interesting one, and probably illustrates the point I was making about McGinn even better than McGinn does.  If the Sabres are on the playoff bubble and their goalie situation is more or less what it is now -- i.e. CJ getting more than half the starts and generally playing well -- then trading him will probably torpedo their playoff chances.  Would GMTM do this for the 2nd- or 3rd-rounder that CJ would probably bring in trade?

 

I doubt it, but it certainly could happen.

 

I agree, it really depends on how bubble the Sabres are. 1 point out of 8th? Yeah, go for it. 5-6 out? That doesn't seem like much, but that's probably 11th in today's NHL and where the hard decisions lie. Is it realistic that the Sabres are going to pass 3-4 other teams that are in the same situation?

[#freejame]

My 2 cents is that GMTM and everyone else would prefer making the playoffs over missing them.

 

Interesting point on McGinn.  There is a reasonable possibility that the Sabres will be on the bubble (maybe 3-4 points out of the playoffs) as we approach the trade deadline, and McGinn will have played most of the year with ROR and Reino and be on pace for close to 20 goals and a ton of hits.  That's the kind of player that the GM of a playoff team trades, say, a 2nd-round pick for, or even a low first if he gets back, say, McGinn and a #3.  What would GMTM do in that scenario?  Take the trade return and weaken his team down the stretch?  Or keep McGinn and try to make the playoffs?

Personally, unless we were getting another robbery of a deal like the Gaustad trade, I would keep McGinn and re-sign him. Obviously it's easier said than done, but I think he's going to be a great support player once the top six fills out. Not only that but he's still relatively young (27) and has some playoff experience.

[woods-racer]

Personally, unless we were getting another robbery of a deal like the Gaustad trade, I would keep McGinn and re-sign him. Obviously it's easier said than done, but I think he's going to be a great support player once the top six fills out. Not only that but he's still relatively young (27) and has some playoff experience.

 

He can take Matty Moes spot after this summers buy out.

[#freejame]

He can take Matty Moes spot after this summers buy out.

Out of curiosity, if Moulson is bought out when will his contract come off of the books?

[woods-racer]

Out of curiosity, if Moulson is bought out when will his contract come off of the books?

 

I don't know if anyone has said. All I remember reading was that about a 1/3 of his contract would not count against the cap. I assumed it would end with his contract expiration.

[3putt]

So is everyone OK that apparently a "Tank" is now synonymous with "any move that makes a team worse in the short run"? Every team that's not looking to the playoffs in February would be smart to look at assets to sell off. CJ is a prime example of a normal hockey deal in February. Unless you figure CJ is Sabres' GT of the future, you trade him to a playoff team looking to solidify their backup position for a pick. I don't see CJ getting signed by the Sabres and he's UFA this year.

 

 

McGinn is an interesting one. I'd lean towards keeping him (and re-sign) unless the trade is great or he wants a ton of money. A cheap guy that you can plug into your 1/2 line and be productive seems like an asset in terms of getting the most out of the cap.

No.  I think judicious leverage of assets isn't tanking its...judicious use of assets.  McGinn could be a trade and sign situation as well. Send him to a playoff contender with the wink wink nudge nudge that we would like to talk to you in the offseason.  McGinn gets a playoff taste and we could resign him if he is so inclined.  Assuming Lehner is healthy, dumping CJ would clear the decks for an extensive workload and evaluation for him.  I would send Linus to the A to play every night and bring up someone else.  I would do this regardless of where we are in the standings at the deadline.  And no I don't call this tanking.  I call it management.  

[woods-racer]

No.  I think judicious leverage of assets isn't tanking its...judicious use of assets.  McGinn could be a trade and sign situation as well. Send him to a playoff contender with the wink wink nudge nudge that we would like to talk to you in the offseason.  McGinn gets a playoff taste and we could resign him if he is so inclined.  Assuming Lehner is healthy, dumping CJ would clear the decks for an extensive workload and evaluation for him.  I would send Linus to the A to play every night and bring up someone else.  I would do this regardless of where we are in the standings at the deadline.  And no I don't call this tanking.  I call it management.  

 

It's just the opposite of the Darcy style. 

 

It also means we should never have to do a full blown honest to goodness tank to keep good assets coming in.