Tank 3.0

[pi2000]

Hey Pi, I'm planning a nice avatar for you :devil:

 

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219

 

Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3).

 

I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5.    Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams.

 

If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th):

 

Odds of picking:

1st: 6.5%

2nd: 6.8%

3rd: 7.2%

xxx

7th: 27.8%

8th: 39.1%

9th: 11.6%

10th: 0.74%

 

To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down.

[Derrico]

What was the bet?

We made an offseason avatar bet.  If the Sabres draft in the top 5 then he picks my avatar.  Outside of the top 5 and I pick his.

But if we win the lottery?

This is true, but I just don't like our odds.

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219

 

Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3).

 

I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5.    Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams.

 

If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th):

 

Odds of picking:

1st: 6.5%

2nd: 6.8%

3rd: 7.2%

xxx

7th: 27.8%

8th: 39.1%

9th: 11.6%

10th: 0.74%

 

To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down.

I like the breakdown.  Didn't realize we would have such a high percentage chance moving down.  Ugh.

[MattPie]

Hey Pi, I'm planning a nice avatar for you :devil:

 

Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :)

Edited April 4, 2016 by MattPie

[pi2000]

Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :)

 

[Derrico]

Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :)

:lol:

[TrueBlueGED]

Not sure where to put this, but I figured the tank thread would be most appropriate. I know we're still a bottom-10 team this year, but the goal differential improvement is pretty startling. Anyone looking for reasons to hope for next year should cling to this.

 

Joe Yerdon ‏@JoeYerdon  47m47 minutes ago

For instance: With 3 games left, the #Sabres have scored 191 goals. In 14-15 they had 153. In 13-14 they had 150.

 

Joe Yerdon ‏@JoeYerdon  44m44 minutes ago

#Sabres true goal differential this season is -16. In 14-15 it was -116 (!!!!!) and in 13-14 it was -93. They're 100 goals better this year!

 

 

[MattPie]

 

Not sure where to put this, but I figured the tank thread would be most appropriate. I know we're still a bottom-10 team this year, but the goal differential improvement is pretty startling. Anyone looking for reasons to hope for next year should cling to this.

 

Joe Yerdon ‏@JoeYerdon  47m47 minutes ago

For instance: With 3 games left, the #Sabres have scored 191 goals. In 14-15 they had 153. In 13-14 they had 150.

 

Joe Yerdon ‏@JoeYerdon  44m44 minutes ago

#Sabres true goal differential this season is -16. In 14-15 it was -116 (!!!!!) and in 13-14 it was -93. They're 100 goals better this year!

 

 

 

 

Joe needs to shut up, there are still a few games left. If Buffalo loses those 80-0 combined we know who to blame. :)

[nfreeman]

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219

 

Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3).

 

I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5.    Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams.

 

If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th):

 

Odds of picking:

1st: 6.5%

2nd: 6.8%

3rd: 7.2%

xxx

7th: 27.8%

8th: 39.1%

9th: 11.6%

10th: 0.74%

 

To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down.

 

Good stuff.  Thanks.

 

I found it kinda interesting that their odds of moving up from #7 into the top 3 are better than their odds were last year of "keeping" #1 overall despite finishing DFL. 

[LGR4GM]

Good stuff.  Thanks.

 

I found it kinda interesting that their odds of moving up from #7 into the top 3 are better than their odds were last year of "keeping" #1 overall despite finishing DFL. 

Yea it is almost like the NHL has completely f'ed up the draft.

[Eleven]

Joe needs to shut up, there are still a few games left. If Buffalo loses those 80-0 combined we know who to blame. :)

 

He's not a "noted jerk" for nothing.

[nfreeman]

Yea it is almost like the NHL has completely f'ed up the draft.

 

Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit?  If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid.

[LGR4GM]

Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit?  If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid.

That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit?  If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid.

 

Of course, teams still did race to the bottom, so...

[3putt]

That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews. 

And you can be assured that when Toews or Kane is long in the tooth and the Hawks miss the playoffs, they will win the lottery and get the next McDavid.  

[inkman]

That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews.

That's what supposed to deter tanking. See, any yahoo that doesn't make the playoffs can win so don't try to be last eh?

[3putt]

A draft is designed to induce sustainable competitive balance.  It garauntees a bottom team a shot at direction altering talent.  If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents.  No draft, no tank.

[pi2000]

A draft is designed to induce sustainable competitive balance.  It garauntees a bottom team a shot at direction altering talent.  If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents.  No draft, no tank.

 

Tanking is a legitimate strategy.    Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know.    There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different?

[...]

Tanking is a legitimate strategy. Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know. There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different?

The owners whine more.

[MattPie]

Tanking is a legitimate strategy.    Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know.    There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different?

 

The NFL draft is a different animal. There are so many positions that even if you're half-way down the 1st round, you might end up picking the top player in whatever position. Other than a few special guys (QBs, etc.), being first overall isn't that much better than being 10th in terms of player impact.

[LGR4GM]

Again I don't have a problem with the concept of a lottery, but if Detroit misses the playoffs this year and get Matthews... f the NHL. 14 teams miss the playoffs, so how about the bottom 7 are lottery eligible and it is just the top pick. Done. There, tanking doesn't insure anything. Teams will still rebuild via the draft but maybe 1 team won't get 4 top picks in 7 years.

[bunomatic]

Again I don't have a problem with the concept of a lottery, but if Detroit misses the playoffs this year and get Matthews... f the NHL. 14 teams miss the playoffs, so how about the bottom 7 are lottery eligible and it is just the top pick. Done. There, tanking doesn't insure anything. Teams will still rebuild via the draft but maybe 1 team won't get 4 top picks in 7 years.

I kind of like Shane Doans idea of once you're officially eliminated the goal is to get as many points from then till the end of the season and the team which gets the most points wins the pick. It would then be a race to play lights out rather than ice the worst team. Maybe change it up a little to only include the first 5 that are officially eliminated ?

Edited April 5, 2016 by bunomatic

[That Aud Smell]

If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents.  No draft, no tank.

 

So, the international futbol model, in essence. It fascinates me no end that "socialist" Europe has a much more free market approach to pro sports than America does. 

 

There are many reasons that I think the American leagues will never go this route. For starters, there's that whole complicated tiering system over in Europe where a club can be successful and beloved even though it doesn't play in the top flight league (Leeds United, Queens Park Rangers).

 

In addition to which: The truly free market approach seems to undermine or even eliminate parity among clubs (e.g., there's great quality at the top of most European leagues, but after the top, top teams, you're getting more of a hound's breakfast). The free market approach also seems to result in clubs folding when they become illiquid after trying and failing to spend to keep up with teams they're trying to catch.

 

Any reason to think an American pro league could eliminate the draft but, say, keep a salary cap structure? Even in that event, I still think you'd end up with teams in the most desirable locations getting the best talent.

[pi2000]

I kind of like Shane Doans idea of once you're officially eliminated the goal is to get as many points from then till the end of the season and the team which gets the most points wins the pick. It would then be a race to play lights out rather than ice the worst team. Maybe change it up a little to only include the first 5 that are officially eliminated ?

 

Don't like that idea.   Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished.    The NHL wants parody.   The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks.     I say just get rid of the lottery altogether.    There is nothing sinister about tanking.    If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so.

 

There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80.    Just get rid of it.     

[WildCard]

Don't like that idea.   Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished.    The NHL wants parody.   The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks.     I say just get rid of the lottery altogether.    There is nothing sinister about tanking.    If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so.

 

There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80.    Just get rid of it.     

Agreed. Plus, without the lottery, Edmonton wouldn't have won it 4 times. So, you know, that whole thing about the lottery dissuading a team from perpetual blowing ass....

[bunomatic]

Don't like that idea.   Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished.    The NHL wants parody.   The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks.     I say just get rid of the lottery altogether.    There is nothing sinister about tanking.    If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so.

 

There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80.    Just get rid of it.     

I'm not talking about a lottery. And injuries are a part of this sport , always have been and always will play a part in a teams performance or lack thereof. The cap is supposed to help small markets compete and hold the large markets in check anyways ( some would argue whether it actually works ) so rewarding the best team of the worst 5 would actually go a long way towards changing this culture of rewarding teams that want to lose.