Tank 3.0

[Huckleberry]

Point wise we might not be doing well, but I think this team has made huge leaps since last year.

And we'll see them improve even more the last 25 games.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Huckleberry

[Thorner]

serious question.

 

With 25 games to go, what is the better scenario for you?

 

1) Sabres win 15 of last 25 games - "learn to win" as they say. End up with the 10th pick in the draft

 

2) Sabres win 10 of last 25 games -  finish 4th last and draft between 1 and 5. (assuming no more than 1 team below you moves up in lottery) and add another elite talent to your team?

 

wanted to add a poll but have no idea how to do it!

 

Option 1. Win the games. Not about learning to win. It would mean continued development from our young players.

[WildCard]

serious question.

 

With 25 games to go, what is the better scenario for you?

 

1) Sabres win 15 of last 25 games - "learn to win" as they say. End up with the 10th pick in the draft

 

2) Sabres win 10 of last 25 games - finish 4th last and draft between 1 and 5. (assuming no more than 1 team below you moves up in lottery) and add another elite talent to your team?

 

wanted to add a poll but have no idea how to do it!

I go with 1. Even if it comes down to the last game, I'll be rooting for a win. I just can't root for them to lose again, it's just miserable after 2 years of it. We got our prize, there is no McEichel, and anywhere we draft won't have a drastic impact on our chance at Matthews. Just win, and draft where you draft. Murray's a big boy, we should be able to rely on him finding other means to construct a roster Edited February 15, 2016 by WildCard

[Thorner]

I go with 1. Even if it comes down to the last game, I'll be rooting for a win. I just can't root for them to lose again, it's just miserable after 2 years of it. We got our prize, there is no McEichel, and anywhere we draft won't have a drastic impact on our chance at Matthews. Just win, and draft where you draft. Murray's a big boy, we should be able to rely on him finding other means to construct a roster

 

Ya. And this year, so much of our future is already on the current roster playing the games, a big difference from last year when it comes to what the wins would actually mean.

[Crusader1969]

good news for those like me (though I think there are not many of us) who want the Sabres to finish as low in the standings as possible - getting to about 75 points on the season.

 

DTM About Heart still has the Sabres most likely to finish last:

 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbRXUwyWIAAQH2P.png

[Thorner]

good news for those like me (though I think there are not many of us) who want the Sabres to finish as low in the standings as possible - getting to about 75 points on the season.

 

DTM About Heart still has the Sabres most likely to finish last:

 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbRXUwyWIAAQH2P.png

 

I don't understand how they come to that conclusion. We aren't last in the standings, and don't have the worst points percentage either. I can't see how we would have greatest chance of finishing last. Sports Club Stats has both Toronto and Columbus listed as more likely to finish last in the Eastern Conference, and therefore the league, than we are, for whatever that's worth.

 

Finishing last 3 years in a row would be deflating.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

Dobber sports did a poll of 15 writers and scouts and ranked prospects by their future value, probability of success and how quickly they will contribute in the NHL

 

1) Matthews - NHL Comparable Malkin

2) Laine - NHL Comparable Ovechkin 

The best pure goal scorer available in an entry draft in over a decade who shoots off the pass with near-perfect accuracy. – Steve Kournianos, Draft Analyst

3) Puljujarvi - NHL Comparable Mats Sundin  

 He has the physical stature to handle the league immediately

4) Tkchuck - NHL Comparable Jamie Benn

5) Nylander - 

"Exceptional skill set much like his brother, can create offense out of nothing. Will need to get stronger to be effective at pro level"

6) Chychrun -NHL Comparable Duncan Keith

7) Dubois - NHL Comparable Patrick Marleau

"Pierre-Luc Dubois has the size and versatility to find his way into an NHL lineup quickly"

8) McLeod - Comparable Ryan Kessler

"Has more offensive potential than people seem to suggest he does. Plays the power game the way NHL teams want their centers to now. Just needs to improve his finishing ability, but he creates a ton of chances and will only get better". – OHL Prospects

I don't understand how they come to that conclusion. We aren't last in the standings, and don't have the worst points percentage either. I can't see how we would have greatest chance of finishing last. Sports Club Stats has both Toronto and Columbus listed as more likely to finish last in the Eastern Conference, and therefore the league, than we are, for whatever that's worth.

 

Finishing last 3 years in a row would be deflating.

 

 

I've messaged the site to see how they come up with their analysis, without reply. I found it when Bob McKenzie retweeted one of their posts.

 

I believe it adds strength of schedule and home/-away records into the equation.

[Thorner]

Dobber sports did a poll of 15 writers and scouts and ranked prospects by their future value, probability of success and how quickly they will contribute in the NHL

 

1) Matthews - NHL Comparable Malkin

2) Laine - NHL Comparable Ovechkin 

The best pure goal scorer available in an entry draft in over a decade who shoots off the pass with near-perfect accuracy. – Steve Kournianos, Draft Analyst

3) Puljujarvi - NHL Comparable Mats Sundin  

 He has the physical stature to handle the league immediately

4) Tkchuck - NHL Comparable Jamie Benn

5) Nylander - 

"Exceptional skill set much like his brother, can create offense out of nothing. Will need to get stronger to be effective at pro level"

6) Chychrun -NHL Comparable Duncan Keith

7) Dubois - NHL Comparable Patrick Marleau

"Pierre-Luc Dubois has the size and versatility to find his way into an NHL lineup quickly"

8) McLeod - Comparable Ryan Kessler

"Has more offensive potential than people seem to suggest he does. Plays the power game the way NHL teams want their centers to now. Just needs to improve his finishing ability, but he creates a ton of chances and will only get better". – OHL Prospects

 

 

I've messaged the site to see how they come up with their analysis, without reply. I found it when Bob McKenzie retweeted one of their posts.

 

I believe it adds strength of schedule and home/-away records into the equation.

 

I think Sports Club Stats does something similar but I can't remember exactly. Be sure to post it here if that site you linked does respond!

 

I like the sound of Chychrun's comparable being Duncan Keith.

[Eleven]

good news for those like me (though I think there are not many of us) who want the Sabres to finish as low in the standings as possible - getting to about 75 points on the season.

 

DTM About Heart still has the Sabres most likely to finish last:

 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbRXUwyWIAAQH2P.png

 

I don't like you.

[Crusader1969]

again its not my graph, im just passing it along. lol

 

He has them finishing with 78 points - so there is optimism there

[MattPie]

I don't understand how they come to that conclusion. We aren't last in the standings, and don't have the worst points percentage either. I can't see how we would have greatest chance of finishing last. Sports Club Stats has both Toronto and Columbus listed as more likely to finish last in the Eastern Conference, and therefore the league, than we are, for whatever that's worth.

 

Finishing last 3 years in a row would be deflating.

If they're really paying attention, could they be betting on GMTM fire sale and the likes of Schaller and whatnot regularly skating the last 20 games?

Edited February 16, 2016 by MattPie

[Derrico]

Toronto's going to win the Shart.  I'd be shocked if it's anyone else.

 

I'd like my cake and eat it too.  I want the Sabres to play fairly well down the stretch to win a few more games.  Not because these professional athletes need to learn how to win but because it will hopefully show potential UFA's (cough Yandle) that we are primed and ready for next season.  Saying that, I hope they don't play themselves out of a top 7 pick.  One more core piece could really go a long way. 

[Taro T]

Currently debating this on Twitter. McNab isn't listed as a rookie that season by multiple sites I've found. He played 22 games in 73/74, but the CURRENT rookie definition says you can't play in 25 games. My guess is the definition was different then.

Either way it doesn't make it any less impressive.

I know for a fact that the Sabres have his '74-'75 season listed as a rookie year & I know for a fact that the 25 game limit was used in the definition of who was a rookie at least as far back as '76.

 

I am 99% certain that McNab & Gare were both rooks in '74-'75.

[Eleven]

I know for a fact that the Sabres have his '74-'75 season listed as a rookie year & I know for a fact that the 25 game limit was used in the definition of who was a rookie at least as far back as '76.

 

I am 99% certain that McNab & Gare were both rooks in '74-'75.

 

They were and they were the last pair of Sabres rookies to score 20 each in a season.

[Taro T]

They were and they were the last pair of Sabres rookies to score 20 each in a season.

Yep.

[Crusader1969]

Toronto Stars race to the bottom:

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2016/02/16/race-to-the-nhl-basement-remaining-games-for-bottom-four-teams.html

 

Sabres with the least home games left with 11 out of 24 but have the easiest schedule with only 15 games vs teams with winning records.

 

Also, Sabres have slipped into second. No longer the most likely team to draft one of the Top 3.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbbvYy7W4AAFis5.png

Edited February 17, 2016 by Crusader1969

[WildCard]

Well, we're terrible at home anyways

[Derrico]

Well, we're terrible at home anyways

Ha!  True enough.  We do play better on the road.

 

Love all of the tank talk in Toronto when they were the first to throw stones at Buffalo last year.  So many of my leafs buddies said how embarrassing it was how Buffalo was blatantly tanking.  Let's be honest, the leafs have traded away most of their good veterans, buried a couple of their young players away from the tire fire and have and will continue to trade off anything of value.  Same as we did last year boys.

[Crusader1969]

Well, we're terrible at home anyways

 

 

good point.

 

Leafs / Columbus are ok at home (basically .500) while Edmonton has a decent home record.(15-11-2).

[pi2000]

if Buffalo finishes their last 24 games at the same pace (54.31% points lost in GP) they'll finish with 75 points, which gives them a 77% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

[That Aud Smell]

if Buffalo finishes their last 24 games at the same pace (54.31% points lost in GP) they'll finish with 75 points, which gives them a 77% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

 

good stuff.

 

i'd prefer them to crack 80, but i likely won't be too bent out of shape with a ~75 point finish.

[nfreeman]

if Buffalo finishes their last 24 games at the same pace (54.31% points lost in GP) they'll finish with 75 points, which gives them a 77% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

 

Just curious -- how is this % calculated?

[Derrico]

if Buffalo finishes their last 24 games at the same pace (54.31% points lost in GP) they'll finish with 75 points, which gives them a 77% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

True.  But they are a better team now than they were at the start of the season.  They have now gone 8-6-3 over their past 17 games.  If you use that pace then they will end with 80 points.  What percent chance does that give them for bottom 5? 

[pi2000]

True.  But they are a better team now than they were at the start of the season.  They have now gone 8-6-3 over their past 17 games.  If you use that pace then they will end with 80 points.  What percent chance does that give them for bottom 5? 

 

If they continue at their last 17 games pace (55.88% points per GP) they'll finish with 79 points (53 + (48 * 0.5588) = 79.82), round down as they'll come up just short of 80 points.  

 

Anyway, with 79 points they would have a 64% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, and a 3% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

Edited February 17, 2016 by pi2000

[Derrico]

If they continue at their last 17 games pace (55.88% points per GP) they'll finish with 79 points (53 + (48 * 0.5588) = 79.82), round down as they'll come up just short of 80 points.  

 

Anyway, with 79 points they would have a 64% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, and a 3% chance of finishing in the bottom 3.

Hahhahaha, ok, well humor me and assume we round up to the 80.  Is it about a 50/50 shot of finishing in the bottom 5?