rakii's draft thread

[rakish]

Eliteprospects tells me Dubois is ranked about
5th.

The Q at age 17

1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409
2 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438
3 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997
4 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859
5 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840
6 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748
7 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713
8 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670
9 VITALI ABRAMOV QMJHL 650
10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632

The Q at age 16

1 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 769
2 ANGELO ESPOSITO QMJHL 554
3 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 504
4 ANTHONY DUCLAIR QMJHL 472
5 DANIEL SPRONG QMJHL 406
6 ADAM ERNE QMJHL 364
7 WILLIAM CARRIER QMJHL 342
8 JORDAN CARON QMJHL 301
9 MARTIN FRK QMJHL 284
10 CHARLES HUDON QMJHL 276
11 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 275
12 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 268

He is 74, 205, these are his
17th plus 16th size comparables:

1 CONNOR MCDAVID 2994 -OHL 2132 -OHL 861 17.7
2 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2084 -Liiga 1304 -Liiga 780 17.0
3 JACK EICHEL 1933 -NCAA 1245 -USDP-USHL 689 17.9
4 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1
5 BRAYDEN SCHENN 1259 -WHL 724 -WHL 534 17.1
6 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK 1057 -USDP-NAHL 1720 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 197 17.4
7 PETER MUELLER 1054 -WHL 482 -USDP-NAHL 573 17.4
8 COLIN WILSON 1050 -NCAA 702 -NAHL-USDP 348 17.9
9 LEON DRAISAITL 995 -WHL 736 -WHL 259 17.9
10 TOMAS HERTL 951 -Czech 711 -Czech U20 240 17.8
11 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 903 -Champions HL-Liiga 757 -Mestis-Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 525 17.4
12 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO 903 -QMJHL 713 -MHL 190 17.3
13 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 901 -QMJHL 632 -QMJHL 268 17.2

 

[rakish]

It seems everyone ranks Alexander Nylander about 7th.


The OHL at 17

1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602
3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350
4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039
7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972
8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966
9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924
10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877
11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869
12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799
14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799
15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717
16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706
17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670
18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659
19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659
20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658
21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653
22 MAX DOMI OHL 629
23 JEFF SKINNER OHL 614
24 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611

SuperElit at 16

1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749
2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520
3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459
4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446
5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428
6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378
7 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342
8 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331  
9 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327
10 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326
11 GUSTAV POSSLER SuperElit 313
12 ELIAS LINDHOLM SuperElit 292
13 MIKKEL BØDKER SuperElit 288
14 SEBASTIAN COLLBERG SuperElit 285
15 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SuperElit 277
16 ALEXANDER NYLANDER SuperElit 274

Nylander is 72, 179

1 JOHN TAVARES 1848 -OHL-OHL 2401 -OHL 647 18.0
2 TAYLOR HALL 1750 -OHL 1210 -OHL 539 17.8
3 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5
4 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0
5 STEVEN STAMKOS 1527 -OHL 799 -OHL 728 17.6
6 RYAN STROME 1523 -OHL 1350 -OHL-OHL 172 17.2
7 KYLE CONNOR 1315 -USHL 791 -USHL 524 17.8
8 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1276 -Allsvenskan-Allsvenskan-SHL 1581 -SuperElit 749 17.4
9 TYLER SEGUIN 1221 -OHL 966 -OHL 255 17.6
10 SAM BENNETT 1221 -OHL 972 -OHL 249 17.2
11 SAM REINHART 1181 -WHL 785 -WHL 395 17.9
12 DERICK BRASSARD 1010 -QMJHL 748 -QMJHL 262 18.0
13 JEREMY MORIN 994 -USDP-NAHL 1072 -NAHL-USDP 458 17.4
14 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0
15 DANIEL SPRONG 924 -QMJHL 518 -QMJHL 406 17.5
16 TOM WANDELL NaN 0 -SuperElit 210 0.0
17 ANGELO ESPOSITO 923 -QMJHL 369 -QMJHL 554 17.6
18 TOM FRITSCHE 905 -NCAA 687 -NAHL 218 18.0
19 TEEMU PULKKINEN 889 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1179 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7
20 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 885 -OHL 611 -SuperElit 274 17.5

I think Nylander gets chosen around 10th or 12th.

Edited June 5, 2016 by rakish

[rakish]

Ollie Juolevi gets ranked between 5 and 12.

OHL at 17

1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913
2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689
3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658
4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657
5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641
6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628
7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628
8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605
9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592

Jr A sm-liiga at 16

1 OLLI JUOLEVI Jr. A SM-liiga 281
2 VEETI VAINIO Jr. A SM-liiga 229
3 VILLE POKKA Jr. A SM-liiga 226
4 SAMI NIKU Jr. A SM-liiga 214
5 MARKUS NIEMELÄINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 184
6 OLLI MÄÄTTÄ Jr. A SM-liiga 160
7 TARMO REUNANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 123
8 ALEX LINTUNIEMI Jr. A SM-liiga 109
9 SANTERI SAARI Jr. A SM-liiga 100
10 JYRI NIEMI Jr. A SM-liiga 98

Juolevi is 74 183, these are his
17th year and 16th year size comparables:

1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9
2 OLLI JUOLEVI 874 -OHL 592 -Jr. A SM-liiga 281 17.4
3 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8
4 ERIC ROY 802 -WHL 338 -WHL 464 17.9
5 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1
6 STEFAN ELLIOTT 783 -WHL 460 -WHL 322 17.6
7 MICHAEL DOWNING 753 -USHL 464 -USHL 289 17.3
8 DUNCAN SIEMENS 730 -WHL 468 -WHL 261 17.0
9 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6
10 DAVID RUNDBLAD 711 -SHL 400 -SuperElit 311 17.9


I would not be surprised if the Sabres took him
at 8 or 9, whichever they have.

[rakish]

Luke Kunin gets ranked about 20th, and that seems fair.

NCAA at 17

1 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
2 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834
3 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738
4 COLIN WILSON NCAA 702
5 JONATHAN TOEWS NCAA 696
6 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687
7 LUKE KUNIN NCAA 635
8 JON MATSUMOTO NCAA 600
9 TAGE THOMPSON NCAA 600
10 BILL SWEATT NCAA 585

USDP at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088
2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791
3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759
4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728
5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700
6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683
7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633
8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580
9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498
10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495
11 COLIN WHITE USDP 479
12 J.T. MILLER USDP 443
13 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 434
14 J.T. COMPHER USDP 428
15 JASON ZUCKER USDP 364
16 NICK SHORE USDP 356
17 EMERSON ETEM USDP 347
18 ROBBIE CZARNIK USDP 347
19 MATT NIETO USDP 338
20 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 320
21 JIMMY HAYES USDP 315
22 COLIN WILSON USDP 314
23 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 313
24 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 300
25 SONNY MILANO USDP 297
26 DREW SHORE USDP 297
27 JORDAN SCHROEDER USDP 297
28 JUSTIN FLOREK USDP 297
29 BRANDON SAAD USDP 295
30 RHETT RAKHSHANI USDP 272
31 BRENDAN WARREN USDP 267
32 CHRISTIAN FISCHER USDP 264
33 LUKE KUNIN USDP 261

USHL at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723
2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678
3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524
4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455
5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390
6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377
7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321
9 MATT NIETO USHL 314
10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306
11 SAM GAGNER USHL 304
12 J.T. COMPHER USHL 290
13 BRANDON SAAD USHL 273
14 CONNOR HURLEY USHL 271
15 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 254
16 TYLER MOTTE USHL 251
17 NICK SCHMALTZ USHL 241
18 TRAVIS BOYD USHL 233
19 NICK SHORE USHL 228
20 LUKE JOHNSON USHL 215
21 JEREMY BRACCO USHL 208
22 RYAN HARTMAN USHL 198
23 SONNY MILANO USHL 198
24 HUDSON FASCHING USHL 194
25 REID BOUCHER USHL 189
26 NICOLAS KERDILES USHL 186
27 COOPER MARODY USHL 177
28 LUKE KUNIN USHL 171

Kunin is 71, 192

1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1
2 JOHN TAVARES 1848 -OHL-OHL 2401 -OHL 647 18.0
3 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5
4 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0
5 STEVEN STAMKOS 1527 -OHL 799 -OHL 728 17.6
6 SAM GAGNER 1343 -OHL 1039 -USHL 304 17.1
7 NAIL YAKUPOV 1301 -OHL 717 -OHL 584 17.9
8 BRYAN LITTLE 1165 -OHL 877 -OHL 288 17.8
9 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1104 -WHL 658 -WHL 446 17.3
10 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8
11 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0
12 TOM FRITSCHE 905 -NCAA 687 -NAHL 218 18.0
13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8
14 JEFF SKINNER 901 -OHL 614 -OHL 287 17.3
15 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2
16 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7
17 TEEMU PULKKINEN 889 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1179 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7
18 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM 884 -SHL 721 -SHL-SuperElit 164 17.8
19 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8
 

[rakish]

MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV ranked about 9th.  I had been
worried about his 16th year, but my MHL number was
too low, so I'm no longer that worried.

OHL at 17

1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913
2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689
3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658
4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657
5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641
6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628
7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628
8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605
9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592

MHL at 16

1 RUSHAN RAFIKOV MHL 291
2 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV MHL 219
3 KRISTAPS ZILE MHL 130
4 VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV MHL 87
5 NIKITA ZADOROV MHL 74
6 ALEXANDER YAKOVENKO MHL 58
7 NIKITA MAKEYEV MHL 33
8 RINAT VALIYEV MHL 24
9 DMITRI ALEXEYEV MHL 12
10 PAVEL RYZHENKOV MHL 11

Sergachyov was listed at 6'2 205,
then changed to 6'2 220 on eliteprospects,
this is the 74, 205 comparables

1 CAM FOWLER 1084 -OHL 689 -NAHL-USDP 395 17.8
2 ZACH WERENSKI 1060 -NCAA 648 -USDP-USHL 411 17.2
3 NOAH HANIFIN 936 -NCAA 462 -USDP-USDP-USHL 475 17.6
4 ADAM LARSSON 917 -SHL 433 -SHL 484 17.8
5 ZACH BOGOSIAN 917 -OHL 628 -OHL 289 17.2
6 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7
7 CODY CECI 890 -OHL 592 -OHL 298 17.7
8 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV 875 -OHL 657 -MHL 219 17.2
9 JONAS JUNLAND 859 -SuperElit 684 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 17.8
10 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9

9th isn't a terrible ranking for Sergachyov.
He'll probably be on my draft board.

[LGR4GM]

Does the OHL or WHL get higher ratings than the Q?

[rakish]

It floats around a bit.  I've tried schemes to get the software to do it automatically (like by comparing each season to the regression line), but I haven't found anything that works really well.  That screws up the 15 and 16 year old numbers, because I got 150 leagues or so.

 

Right now it's:

"OHL":580,

"WHL":600,

"QMJHL":500,

[rakish]

I would have sworn I put up Bellows days ago, but I guess I didn't

 

Bellows is ranked about 20th.

USDP at 17

1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913
2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766
3 SONNY MILANO USDP 628
4 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 601
5 JERRY D'AMIGO USDP 550
6 KIEFFER BELLOWS USDP 498
7 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 487
8 J.T. COMPHER USDP 471
9 ALEX TUCH USDP 444
10 BILL ARNOLD USDP 408

USHL at 17

1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791
2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737
3 CHAD RAU USHL 654
4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633
5 COREY TROPP USHL 589
6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541
7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524
9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513
10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509
11 JAKE GUENTZEL USHL 464
12 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 454

USHL at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723
2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678
3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524
4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455
5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390
6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377
7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321
9 MATT NIETO USHL 314
10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306

Bellows is 72 196, his size comparables:

1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1
2 CONNOR MCDAVID 2994 -OHL 2132 -OHL 861 17.7
3 TAYLOR HALL 1750 -OHL 1210 -OHL 539 17.8
4 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5
5 NATHAN MACKINNON 1628 -QMJHL 859 -QMJHL 769 17.0
6 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0
7 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1348 -OHL 869 -USDP-USHL 479 17.8
8 BRAYDEN SCHENN 1259 -WHL 724 -WHL 534 17.1
9 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8
10 ELIAS LINDHOLM 1036 -SHL 891 -SHL-SuperElit 146 17.8
11 LOGAN COUTURE 990 -OHL 670 -OHL 320 17.5
12 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0
13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8
14 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2
15 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7
16 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8
17 KIEFFER BELLOWS 782 -USDP-USHL 952 -USHL 306 17.3

Bellows ought to be ranked about 20th.

[LGR4GM]

What do you think of Tyson Jost? I know the BCHL isn't the best league to pull data from. 

[rakish]

I have to spend more time on BCHL, I haven't done that yet

[LGR4GM]

I have to spend more time on BCHL, I haven't done that yet

No worries, I am just lazy and don't feel like tracking down former BCHL players myself. 

[rakish]

Looking at this list, I'm thinking my BCHL is a little

low, but not outrageously so.  The model likes Fabbro

more, but likely only because how it compares to

teammates.

 

Jamie Benn is much better at age 18.

 

BCHL at 17, forwards:

 

1 KYLE TURRIS BCHL 481
2 CASEY PIERRO-ZABOTEL BCHL 391
3 BEAU BENNETT BCHL 345
4 TYSON JOST BCHL 344
5 ADAM TAMBELLINI BCHL 280
6 TAYLOR STEFISHEN BCHL 215
7 RILEY NASH BCHL 208
8 ZAC DALPE BCHL 202
9 BEN WINNETT BCHL 183
10 MARK MACMILLAN BCHL 182
11 WADE MURPHY BCHL 173
12 ADAM TAMBELLINI BCHL 166
13 MATT WATKINS BCHL 164
14 WADE MURPHY BCHL 161
15 JUJHAR KHAIRA BCHL 157
16 ALEXANDER KERFOOT BCHL 147
17 CURTIS MCKENZIE BCHL 147
18 TIM CROWDER BCHL 147
19 CAM REID BCHL 138
20 MARK SANTORELLI BCHL 118
21 KELLEN JONES BCHL 108
22 DEREK GRANT BCHL 108
23 JAMIE BENN BCHL 106
24 MATT BUTCHER BCHL 104
25 DAVID POPE BCHL 102
26 MARCUS VELA BCHL 99
27 JOEL LOWRY BCHL 93
28 CAM REID BCHL 83
29 WES MYRON BCHL 73
30 SPENCER BENNETT BCHL 67
31 MARK SANTORELLI BCHL 57
32 TIM CROWDER BCHL 47
33 JACK RAMSEY BCHL 42
34 JEDD SOLEWAY BCHL 33
35 JUSTIN COURTNALL BCHL 25
36 RANDY MCNAUGHT BCHL 23

Defensemen:

1 DANTE FABBRO BCHL 408
2 JOEY LALEGGIA BCHL 182
3 JUSTIN SCHULTZ BCHL 148
4 KEITH SEABROOK BCHL 126
5 DANE BIRKS BCHL 96
6 NOLAN DE JONG BCHL 88
7 REECE WILLCOX BCHL 88
8 CURTIS GEDIG BCHL 84
9 JOSH MANSON BCHL 69
10 ISAAC MACLEOD BCHL 66
11 CURTIS GEDIG BCHL 63
12 DEVON TOEWS BCHL 40
13 T.J. MILLER BCHL 40
14 BRADEN BIRCH BCHL 18
15 DENNIS ROBERTSON BCHL 15
 

Edited June 9, 2016 by rakish

[LGR4GM]

Hey thanks. It gives me some perspective on Jost. The more I find on him the more I like him. 

[rakish]

SAMUEL GIRARD

Ranked 24 by future consideration, 38
by CSS NA

A very small defenseman from the Q.

Q defensemen at 17:

1 DMITRI KULIKOV QMJHL 651
2 MATHIEU CARLE QMJHL 561
3 SIMON LACROIX QMJHL 456
4 SAMUEL GIRARD QMJHL 456
5 MARC-ANDRÉ BOURDON QMJHL 447
6 JÉRÉMY ROY QMJHL 442
7 NATHAN BEAULIEU QMJHL 434
8 CHARLES-OLIVIER ROUSSEL QMJHL 431
9 NICOLAS MELOCHE QMJHL 421
10 LOIK LÉVEILLÉ QMJHL 415


Q defensemen at 16:

1 NATHAN BEAULIEU QMJHL 416
2 ÉRIC GÉLINAS QMJHL 333
3 NICOLAS MELOCHE QMJHL 322
4 SAMUEL GIRARD QMJHL 294
5 JÉRÉMY ROY QMJHL 259
6 BRANDON GORMLEY QMJHL 244
7 LUKE GREEN QMJHL 230
8 MARC-ANDRÉ BOURDON QMJHL 228
9 LOIK LÉVEILLÉ QMJHL 226
10 MATHIEU CARLE QMJHL 195

Girard is 69, 161

1 SAMUEL GIRARD 750 -QMJHL 456 -QMJHL 294 17.3
2 TYSON BARRIE 509 -WHL 278 -WHL 232 17.1
3 VICTOR METE 328 -OHL 196 -OHL 132 17.3
4 SAMI VATANEN 308 -Jr. A SM-liiga 83 -Jr. B SM-sarja 226 17.3
5 BEN MARSHALL 255 -USHS 149 -USHS 106 17.0
6 ADAM ALMQVIST 235 -SuperElit 168 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 67 17.6
7 KRIS RUSSELL 163 -WHL 140 -WHL 23 17.4
8 NIKITA MAKEYEV 162 -MHL 135 -MHL-Russia U17 26 17.6
9 CHRIS WIDEMAN 146 -NCAA 237 -USHL 56 18.7
10 ERIK KARLSSON 145 -SuperElit 145 0 17.3


At the very least, I got a third round pick with his name on it.

[LGR4GM]

I love having comparables and numbers to analyze

[rakish]

I skipped over 3, because they are small, and the model
doesn't penalize enough for small right now. So we'll go
back.  I think Debrincat's number is too high as compared
to the OHL, so I'm mostly looking at his size comparables.
 
Elite prospects tells me Debrincat is ranked about 24.
So while he will almost certainly be there at 8 or 9,
he also might be there in the second round, and might be
there in the third. An Erie Otter.

OHL at 17

1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602
3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350
4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039
7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972
8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966
9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924
10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877
11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869
12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799
14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799
15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717
16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706
17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670
18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659
19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659
20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658
21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653
22 MAX DOMI OHL 629
23 JEFF SKINNER OHL 614
24 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611
25 MATT DUCHENE OHL 588
26 CHRIS STEWART OHL 586
27 MICHAEL DAL COLLE OHL 570
28 CORY EMMERTON OHL 557
29 NICK RITCHIE OHL 557
30 ERIC O'DELL OHL 550
31 SEAN MONAHAN OHL 546
32 ALEX DEBRINCAT OHL 541
33 EVAN BROPHEY OHL 529
34 BRETT MACLEAN OHL 525
35 NIKOLAI GOLDOBIN OHL 513

OHL at 16

1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 861
2 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 728
3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 647
4 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 584
5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 539
6 JOEY HISHON OHL 444
7 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 428
8 MATT PUEMPEL OHL 403
9 ALEX GALCHENYUK OHL 396
10 ALEX DEBRINCAT OHL 394

Debrincat is 67, 161, these are
the 17th year plus the 16th year comparables:
The last number is the age, so Garland, Olofsson
are overagers at 18, Azevedo at 19. If you do the
math, you'll notice that Garland's 18th and 17th
is discounted at 50%, which would be a little too
much I think.  Azevado is discounted 70%, being
his 18th and 19th year.  So as we look at overagers,
we'll compare them to their draft year.

1 TAYLOR CAMMARATA 984 -USHL 529 -USHL 455 17.3
2 ALEX DEBRINCAT 935 -OHL 541 -OHL 394 17.7
3 ROCCO GRIMALDI 700 -USDP-USHL 893 -USDP-USDP-USHL 254 17.6
4 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV 646 -QMJHL-MHL 842 -MHL 225 17.9
5 DENIS MALGIN 535 -NLA-NLB 487 -NLB 292 17.7
6 T.J. TYNAN 531 -NCAA 736 -USHL 326 18.6
7 CONOR GARLAND 500 -QMJHL 762 -QMJHL 237 18.5
8 MARTIN REWAY 470 -QMJHL 272 -Czech U18 198 17.6
9 KYLE RAU 458 -USHS-USHL-MN Elite 636 -USHS 246 17.9
10 BRANDON KOZUN 457 -WHL 605 -WHL 310 18.5
11 ARTTU RUOTSALAINEN 415 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 658 -Jr. A SM-liiga 86 17.9
12 RYAN BOURQUE 403 -NAHL-USDP 528 -NAHL-USDP 139 17.7
13 JUSTIN AZEVEDO 348 -OHL 1134 -OHL 260 19.5
14 MATTHEW PECA 339 -CHL T1 258 -CJHL 81 17.4
15 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV 310 -MHL 125 -MHL-Russia U17 185 17.3
16 VICTOR OLOFSSON 171 -SHL-SuperElit 371 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 157 18.2
17 PAUL BYRON 114 -QMJHL 104 -EOJHL 10 17.4

I think 24th is a reasonable ranking, for my draft board, looking very much like a second round option.
 

Edited June 11, 2016 by rakish

[Neo]

FORTRAN IV and APL, here. My model's suggesting Jiri Dudacek.

[rakish]

I missed both Fortran and APL, I do miss BASIC

[rakish]

VITALI ABRAMOV

Elite Prospects tells me he's ranked about 24th,
he's small, but not as small as Debrincat, at least
with the numbers I got.

Q at 17:

1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409
2 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438
3 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997
4 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859
5 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840
6 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748
7 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713
8 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670
9 VITALI ABRAMOV QMJHL 650
10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632

MHL at 16:

1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623
2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385
3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364
4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325
5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321
6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288
7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261
8 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255
9 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254
10 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253

Russia U17 at 16

1 IGOR SHVYRYOV Russia U17 653
2 MAXIM SHALUNOV Russia U17 418
3 VITALI ABRAMOV Russia U17 325
4 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV Russia U17 316
5 YEGOR KORSHKOV Russia U17 272
6 ANTON ZLOBIN Russia U17 265
7 IVAN ROMANOV Russia U17 205
8 NIKITA BASHKIROV Russia U17 130
9 ARTUR KAYUMOV Russia U17 130
10 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY Russia U17 113

Abramov is 69, 174

1 MIKAEL GRANLUND 1539 -Liiga 1055 -Jr. A SM-liiga 484 17.6
2 CLAYTON KELLER 1426 -USDP-USHL 1650 -USDP-USDP-USHL 601 17.1
3 ZACH BOYCHUK 1004 -WHL 538 -WHL 466 17.9
4 VITALI ABRAMOV 974 -QMJHL 650 -MHL-Russia U17 325 17.4
5 JORDAN SCHROEDER 967 -NCAA 738 -NAHL-USDP 230 18.0
6 MATHEW BARZAL 934 -WHL 616 -WHL 318 17.3
7 JOEY HISHON 908 -OHL 464 -OHL 444 17.9
8 JADEN SCHWARTZ 891 -USHL 633 -SJHL 257 17.2
9 NIC PETAN 847 -WHL 681 -WHL 165 17.5
10 ANDREW COGLIANO 845 -OPJHL 495 -OPJHL 350 17.3
11 ROBBY FABBRI 842 -OHL 658 -OHL 184 17.6
12 T.J. HENSICK 834 -NCAA 1019 -NCAA 650 18.8
13 KEVIN FIALA 809 -SHL-SuperElit 1174 -SuperElit 221 17.2
14 GILBERT BRULÉ 808 -WHL 537 -WHL 271 17.7
15 JORDAN EBERLE 799 -WHL 509 -WHL 290 17.3
16 JEREMY BRACCO 749 -USDP-USHL 856 -USDP-USHL 321 17.5
17 ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER 712 -QMJHL 563 -QMJHL 149 17.3
18 TRAVIS KONECNY 703 -OHL 379 -OHL 325 17.5
19 SVEN BÄRTSCHI 688 -WHL 536 -NLB 152 17.9
20 ALEX HUTCHINGS 687 -OHL 496 -OHL 191 17.9

I think 24th is a bit unenthusiastic, 18th might be right. Small, he might be

there at 38, who knows?

[rakish]

CHARLIE MCAVOY seems to rated about 15th.

As I said previously, I pulled 3 players out of
line because they were small, but
I shouldn't have pulled McAvoy out of line, because
he's big enough, and he'll score enough.

NCAA at 17:

1 ZACH WERENSKI NCAA 648
2 CHARLIE MCAVOY NCAA 530
3 ADAM CLENDENING NCAA 475
4 NOAH HANIFIN NCAA 462
5 JAKE MCCABE NCAA 312
6 JAMIE OLEKSIAK NCAA 310
7 NATE HAGEMO NCAA 250
8 DANNY BIEGA NCAA 211
9 DILLON SIMPSON NCAA 210
10 MARK MITERA NCAA 190

USDP at 16, I still haven't fixed this issue,
so some defensemen here may be USDP-17, McAvoy
was USDP-18 in this year.

1 JACOB TROUBA USDP 683
2 NOAH HANIFIN USDP 618
3 JUSTIN FAULK USDP 569
4 CAM FOWLER USDP 527
5 ZACH WERENSKI USDP 459
6 NOAH HANIFIN USDP 430
7 CHARLIE MCAVOY USDP 391
8 ADAM CLENDENING USDP 385
9 CHAD KRYS USDP 363
10 JAMIE MCBAIN USDP 330

USHL at 16

1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ USHL 442
2 CHARLIE MCAVOY USHL 401
3 NOAH HANIFIN USHL 376
4 ZACH WERENSKI USHL 364
5 MICHAEL DOWNING USHL 289
6 SETH JONES USHL 268
7 ADAM CLENDENING USHL 265
8 ADAM COMRIE USHL 247
9 IAN MCCOSHEN USHL 244
10 ROBBIE RUSSO USHL 238

McAvoy is 72 198.

1 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO 1162 -OHL 628 -OHL 534 17.2
2 IVAN PROVOROV 965 -WHL 812 -USHL 153 17.7
3 CHARLIE MCAVOY 925 -NCAA 530 -USDP-USHL 396 17.7
4 MORGAN RIELLY 918 -WHL 720 -WHL 198 17.5
5 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7
6 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9
7 JOE MORROW 839 -WHL 563 -WHL 276 17.8
8 NICK EBERT 817 -OHL 509 -OHL 308 17.3
9 ADAM CLENDENING 800 -NCAA 475 -USDP-USHL 325 17.9
10 MATHIEU CARLE 755 -QMJHL 561 -QMJHL 195 18.0

Number 10 isn't the Matt Carle you think it is.

I think 15th is too unenthusiastic. 10th? 12th?

[rakish]

TAGE THOMPSON, ranked about 22nd

NCAA at 17

1 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
2 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834
3 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738
4 COLIN WILSON NCAA 702
5 JONATHAN TOEWS NCAA 696
6 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687
7 LUKE KUNIN NCAA 635
8 JON MATSUMOTO NCAA 600
9 TAGE THOMPSON NCAA 600
10 BILL SWEATT NCAA 585

USDP at 16

70 RYAN FLYNN USDP 146
71 RYAN BOURQUE USDP 146
72 JOHN HAYDEN USDP 146
73 TAGE THOMPSON USDP 134
74 JACK ROSLOVIC USDP 130
75 DENNIS YAN USDP 128
76 JASON ZUCKER USDP 124
77 QUENTIN SHORE USDP 123

USHL at 16

40 WILLIAM KNIERIM USHL 139
41 AARON PALUSHAJ USHL 132
42 THOMAS DIPAULI USHL 132
43 BEN RYAN USHL 124
44 JOHN HAYDEN USHL 124
45 TAGE THOMPSON USHL 119
46 RILEY BARBER USHL 117
47 GARRETT ROE USHL 108
48 VINCENT HINOSTROZA USHL 104
49 CHRISTOPHER WILKIE USHL 99
50 TYLER BIGGS USHL 97

Thompson is 77, 194

1 SEAN COUTURIER 1174 -QMJHL 670 -QMJHL 504 17.8
2 TAGE THOMPSON 726 -NCAA 600 -USDP-USHL 126 17.9
3 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9
4 JOE COLBORNE 641 -AJHL 412 -AJHL 228 17.6
5 BOGDAN YAKIMOV 528 -MHL-VHL-VHL 1037 -MHL 183 18.0
6 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY 477 -MHL 384 -MHL-Russia U17 93 17.0
7 RODRIGO ABOLS 417 -MHL 87 -Latvia 330 17.7
8 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV 401 -MHL 291 -MHL 110 18.0
9 GABRIEL GAGNÉ 398 -QMJHL 271 -QMJHL 127 17.8
10 RILEY TUFTE 389 -USHL-USHS 466 -USHS-USHS 156 17.4


22nd sounds about right.

Edited June 15, 2016 by rakish

[LGR4GM]

How do you feel about Logan Stanley? Some have him in the top 30 and I personally wouldn't take him in the top 50. 

[rakish]

I haven't done Logan Stanley yet.  I'm still going off elite prospects list from a couple months ago, it had125 prospects, he wasn't on it.  I'll make sure I add him next time I add players.

[LGR4GM]

I haven't done Logan Stanley yet.  I'm still going off elite prospects list from a couple months ago, it had125 prospects, he wasn't on it.  I'll make sure I add him next time I add players.

You don't have to, I just know he is in the the top 30 in most places because he is big at 6'6" but his scoring is very low. 

[rakish]

I think there's a place for the Mike Weber type of player, but I'm fairly certain, without looking at the comparables, that size of player busts 80% of the time, just because it's hard to be 6'7" and skate very well.

 

I have to go through the list and add as many as I can find, I'm sure he'll be among them.

 

What do you think of Sean Day?