rakii's draft thread

[LGR4GM]

Rakish, your numbers always have Mathews on a significantly higher level than Eichel.  You think he's a much better prospect?  Or am I reading your numbers wrong?

Well at age 16 Matthews produced more but when they were both 17/18 (draft year) Eichel produced more and has a better score compared to Matthews. Jack is still the better prospect (looking at if they were drafted the same year) but Matthews is not far off.  

[rakish]

Rakish, your numbers always have Mathews on a significantly higher level than Eichel.  You think he's a much better prospect?  Or am I reading your numbers wrong?

 

Eichel better at 17, Matthews better at 16, but you can't really tell Matthews at 17 because the NLA numbers are meaningless.

 

What I was trying to say is I don't care. It's a lot of guesswork dealing with a league like NLA. One of the things I did poorly in previous drafts was valuing 16 year olds because there are so many leagues, and how much that matters.  There's tons of noise.  I could spend a lot of time on Eichel vs Matthews, but in the end it doesn't matter. We'll know much more in a year.  If you look at Eichel's numbers, I agree with Hoss in that Eichel had a very disappointing 2015-2016 since his 2015 numbers are only slightly better than his 2014 numbers.  I think you'll like Eichel a lot more next year now that Bylsma has finally figured out he needs to play with Reinhart and not Kane.

 

For me, the real question is Matthews/Laine or Matthews/Keller.  And since Matthews was so far ahead at 16, it doesn't matter how he did in the NLA, for me, he's still the best prospect.

[Derrico]

Eichel better at 17, Matthews better at 16, but you can't really tell Matthews at 17 because the NLA numbers are meaningless.

 

What I was trying to say is I don't care. It's a lot of guesswork dealing with a league like NLA. One of the things I did poorly in previous drafts was valuing 16 year olds because there are so many leagues, and how much that matters.  There's tons of noise.  I could spend a lot of time on Eichel vs Matthews, but in the end it doesn't matter. We'll know much more in a year.  If you look at Eichel's numbers, I agree with Hoss in that Eichel had a very disappointing 2015-2016 since his 2015 numbers are only slightly better than his 2014 numbers.  I think you'll like Eichel a lot more next year now that Bylsma has finally figured out he needs to play with Reinhart and not Kane.

 

For me, the real question is Matthews/Laine or Matthews/Keller.  And since Matthews was so far ahead at 16, it doesn't matter how he did in the NLA, for me, he's still the best prospect.

I take it you have Keller ranked highly in this draft?  Any idea when you will have your 2016 draft rankings out?

[rakish]

I'm going to do them one at a time, because most people will look at my list and say "You value smalls too high," so you will see Keller vs other smalls, and Laine vs other bigs, and be able to rearrange them for your taste in height.  In addition, how valuable is a defensemen vs a forward?

 

This method works OK for forwards, and not-so-much for defensemen, to be honest, I could put a lot more work into defensemen, but I am out of energy.

I love having a solid number to compare players too. Man if I could learn all about the stats and do player evals for a job I would be there in a heartbeat. 

 

 

I think your understanding of the method is good, but you need to create tools to do the work because your brain can't do that many variables.  Now that I'm looking at what my model does with 2016 draft picks, I think you will look at the Sergachev/Bean numbers and say "Didn't rakish just say the opposite, just last week?"

[LGR4GM]

What do the Sergachev and Bean numbers say right now?

 

Also I really do need a good tool. After I finish this stats thing in the fall I am sure I will have a better way to calculate what I want.  That said, I agree that it is hard to compare forwards and defenders or rank them accordingly. I think some sort of historical analysis would help but as I discovered running the numbers of every top 5 Canadian Junior defender, while guys with better PPG were the better players, it wasn't a sure fire way and I feel on forwards, points and height/weight and age all do come together most times to tell you how a player with succeed or fail. 

[Derrico]

I'm going to do them one at a time, because most people will look at my list and say "You value smalls too high," so you will see Keller vs other smalls, and Laine vs other bigs, and be able to rearrange them for your taste in height.  In addition, how valuable is a defensemen vs a forward?

 

This method works OK for forwards, and not-so-much for defensemen, to be honest, I could put a lot more work into defensemen, but I am out of energy.

 

 

I think your understanding of the method is good, but you need to create tools to do the work because your brain can't do that many variables.  Now that I'm looking at what my model does with 2016 draft picks, I think you will look at the Sergachev/Bean numbers and say "Didn't rakish just say the opposite, just last week?"

Understandable.  I enjoy your analysis, thanks for the work.

[rakish]

Up stream (last week) I said I thought the model would like Sergachev more than Bean, without a closer look, the model like Bean more.  It's very possible that my MHL numbers (for Sergachev at age 16) are wrong, so I'll look at that the day I do Sergachev. Compare him to other MHL defensemen, compare him to OHL? defensemen at 17. Compare to defensemen his size.  Try to figure out why Sergachev was so much better in 2015 than he was in 2014.

[TrueBlueGED]

What do the Sergachev and Bean numbers say right now?

 

Also I really do need a good tool. After I finish this stats thing in the fall I am sure I will have a better way to calculate what I want. That said, I agree that it is hard to compare forwards and defenders or rank them accordingly. I think some sort of historical analysis would help but as I discovered running the numbers of every top 5 Canadian Junior defender, while guys with better PPG were the better players, it wasn't a sure fire way and I feel on forwards, points and height/weight and age all do come together most times to tell you how a player with succeed or fail.

Learn to use R.

[rakish]

The problem with R is that you have to use it all the time, if you stop using it, then nothing makes any sense in 6 months.

 

I use 4 things. Ruby to scrape the data, JSON to hold the data, javascript to code, and D3 to display.

[LGR4GM]

Well I have to learn STATA

[rakish]

It's a history of technology course?

 

 

 

 

(ignore me, I'm just trolling Blue)

[TrueBlueGED]

The problem with R is that you have to use it all the time, if you stop using it, then nothing makes any sense in 6 months.

 

I use 4 things. Ruby to scrape the data, JSON to hold the data, javascript to code, and D3 to display.

You're wrong. R is a pain even when you use it a lot :lol:

 

But, it's free.

Well I have to learn STATA

Oh, just use that then. I was simply suggesting R because you don't have to buy a license.

 

For whatever it's worth, I found the Stata guide books to be extremely helpful when learning. Though they're not cheap if you need several.

[LGR4GM]

I have heard of R but I know it has a lot of learning curve behind it. 

[rakish]

In an undecided order, next we look at Patrik Laine.

In my draft contest, we'll return to using Buffalo's picks this
year, so I likely have pick 8 or 9, I forget which. I don't really
need to care about Laine, he's going first, or second, or possibly
third, but certainly won't linger.

Laine had a really good year as a 17 year old, but totally
sucked as a 16 year old. One of those years is not representative.
My current belief is that it's best to add the two numbers together,
so if you want to build a narrative that 16 doesn't matter, you
are on your own.

First we'll look at the best of age 17, remembering that normally we
factor in 16 year old, so this looks at Laine in the
best light.

1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409
2 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602
4 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438
5 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1413
6 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 1363
7 RYAN STROME OHL 1350
8 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
9 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
10 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
11 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1143
12 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039
13 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997
14 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 996
15 SAM BENNETT OHL 972
16 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966
17 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953
18 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 951

Also note that Liiga (Granlund at 11th?) is over-represented, so, if anything, Laine's
2015 year is overvalued in this list.

Next we will look at Liiga.  This is a combined 17 and 16.  Normally
numbers double each year, so Laine's 951 at 17 ought to have a
475 at 16, and a 240 at 15.  He had roughly a 240 at 15, but
an 83 at 16.  So if you want to buy the narrative that his 16 year
wasn't representative, he lost about 400 points from that year.
Though be careful ignoring data.

Liiga and Liiga-Jr.A SM-liiga, 16 and 17

3 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2258 -Liiga 1413 -Liiga 845 17.0
12 MIKAEL GRANLUND 1626 -Liiga 1143 -Jr. A SM-liiga 484 17.6
21 ARTTURI LEHKONEN 1310 -Liiga 936 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 374 17.2
43 PATRIK LAINE 1035 -Liiga 951 -Mestis 83 17.4
49 JOEL ARMIA 973 -Liiga 785 -Jr. A SM-liiga 188 17.3
52 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 953 -Champions HL-Liiga 813 -Mestis-Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 546 17.4
66 TEEMU PULKKINEN 900 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1202 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7
68 ROOPE HINTZ 895 -Liiga 579 -Jr. A SM-liiga 316 17.8
84 SEBASTIAN AHO 857 -Liiga 524 -Jr. A SM-liiga 333 17.1
93 MIKKO RANTANEN 831 -Liiga 585 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 246 17.9
124 KASPERI KAPANEN 755 -Liiga 426 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 329 17.1
177 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN 673 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1011 -Jr. A SM-liiga 167 17.0
182 TONI RAJALA 665 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 468 -Jr. A SM-liiga-Jr. B SM-sarja 431 17.5

So even if you buy into the narrative of a lost year at 16, and add 400 points
to his ranking, he's still not near Sasha Barkov, who was playing Liiga 16 months
earlier than Laine.

Next we will look at the prospects near in size to Laine's 76 209.

1 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1
2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK 1105 -USDP-NAHL 1823 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 194 17.4
3 PATRIK LAINE 1035 -Liiga 951 -Mestis 83 17.4
4 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO 903 -QMJHL 713 -MHL 190 17.3
5 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 901 -QMJHL 632 -QMJHL 268 17.2
6 MIKKO RANTANEN 831 -Liiga 585 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 246 17.9
7 KYLE BEACH 809 -WHL 336 -WHL 473 17.7
8 RYAN STOA 720 -USDP-NAHL 625 -NAHL-USDP 408 17.4
9 JULIEN GAUTHIER 699 -QMJHL 443 -QMJHL 255 17.9
10 HENRIK BJÖRKLUND 699 -Division 1 442 -Division 1-J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 257 18.0
11 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9
12 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9
13 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4
14 GREG NEMISZ 619 -OHL 440 -OHL 179 17.3
15 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3
16 FILIP AHL 584 -SHL-SuperElit 709 -SuperElit 229 17.3
17 JORDAN STAAL 560 -OHL 447 -OHL 113 17.0
18 RADEK SMOLENAK 553 -OHL 320 -Czech U20 233 17.8
19 ALEX TUCH 543 -USDP-USHL 849 -USDP-USHL 119 17.4
20 BRENDAN PERLINI 506 -OHL 454 -OHL-OHL 51 17.4
21 ZACK KASSIAN 501 -OHL 383 -OHL 118 17.6

My theory on why there are so many busts in this list is that it's
difficult to skate fast enough at this size. That won't stop people from drafting
them. In his defense, Laine is above all the busts, it's not like you wanted
to draft Zacha 4th or anything like that.

My general conclusion would be that if I'm picking second, I hope I find
someone I like more. We'll look at the options over the next week, but for
now, it's

Matthews
Laine
 

[qwksndmonster]

Is R a new kind of drug I haven't heard of?

[rakish]

I made liiga numbers a bit lower, USDP a little lower,
and USHL a little higher.  Today we'll look at Clayton
Keller.  Keller had an excellent 16th year.  Keller had
an excellent 17th year. He outscored the second highest scoring
teammate on USDP by almost half a point a game. No wonder the
model loves him.

These are the best USDP players at 17.  There aren't many,
as many, like Matthews and Eichel became too old, it depends
when your birthday falls.

1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913
2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766
3 SONNY MILANO USDP 628
4 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 601
5 JERRY D'AMIGO USDP 550
6 KIEFFER BELLOWS USDP 498
7 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 487
8 J.T. COMPHER USDP 471
9 ALEX TUCH USDP 444
10 BILL ARNOLD USDP 408


USDP at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088
2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791
3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759
4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728
5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700
6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683
7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633
8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580
9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498
10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495

I found a bug. The software calls the league USDP, it doesn't differentiate
between USDP-17 and USDP-18, that's why Keller shows up twice, so one
of them doesn't count.  

USHL at 17

1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791
2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737
3 CHAD RAU USHL 654
4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633
5 COREY TROPP USHL 589
6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541
7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524
9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513
10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509

USHL at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723
2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678
3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524
4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455
5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390
6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377
7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321
9 MATT NIETO USHL 314
10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306
11 SAM GAGNER USHL 304
12 J.T. COMPHER USHL 290
13 BRANDON SAAD USHL 273
14 CONNOR HURLEY USHL 271
15 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 254

Keller is 70, 170.  These are the
players (2005-2016) within an inch
and within 10 pounds.

Age 17
1 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
2 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1055
3 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943
4 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913
5 EVANDER KANE WHL 897
6 WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvenskan 875
7 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869
8 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 864
9 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738
10 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737

Age 16 - One of these is USDP-17, the other
is USDP-18.

1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791
2 PATRICK KANE NAHL 759
3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759
4 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749
5 PATRICK KANE USDP 728
6 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633
7 SVEN ANDRIGHETTO Elite Novizen 582
8 MIKAEL GRANLUND Jr. A SM-liiga 484
9 JAN MURSAK Slovenia 473
10 ANTHONY DUCLAIR QMJHL 472

It's likely he's on the board when the Sabres
pick.

[LGR4GM]

But should we take him? Is he the best player likely to be there?

Edited June 3, 2016 by LGR4GM

[rakish]

I'm just trying to put out the information I have at this point, and let you

value them yourself. I think at 8, or is it 9, the Sabres could rationally go defenseman,

but Keller will score in the NHL.  I'll be surprised to find someone I like more.

 

One more list for Keller.

 

Overall, I'm comparing points scored to the rest of the team

to get a contextual scoring. In the Stamkos thread yesterday, looking

at contextual scoring for Stamkos makes his future look, as WildCard

said, not pretty. So let's look at those that did outscore their team by

a quarter point, Keller didn't quite make half a point.

 

So these are 17th year outscored teammates by quarter point, the top 34:

 

1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409
2 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602
4 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438
5 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 1363
6 RYAN STROME OHL 1350
7 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
8 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
9 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
10 SAM BENNETT OHL 972
11 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966  
12 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953
13 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913
14 TEEMU PULKKINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 894
15 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877
16 WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvenskan 875
17 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840
18 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799
19 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791
20 SAM REINHART WHL 785
21 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766
22 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748
23 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 736
24 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717
25 NIKITA FILATOV Russia3 674
26 CHAD RAU USHL 654
27 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 636
28 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633
29 TYLER ENNIS WHL 618
30 SERGEI KOROSTIN Russia3 603
31 BRAYDEN POINT WHL 601
32 COREY TROPP USHL 589
33 COOPER MARODY USHL 541
34 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524
 

Notice how few regrets there are on this list,

also note how many top 3 picks are here.

Whereas the 6'4" list was stuffed with regret.

 

Tavares did it on two teams in the same season.

Keller also did it at 16, but I got to fix the

USDP-18 vs USDP-17 confusion.

Edited June 3, 2016 by rakish

[rakish]

The model and the eye-test people agree on the
next one, Matt Tkachuk should go about fourth,
and he should go about fourth.  There is little
danger I need to worry about him, since, unless things
change, I pick 8th or 9th, I forget which, but
let's look at some comparisons none-the-less.

London Knights pedigree, always a good thing, let's look
at the best of the OHL as 17 year olds, this, of course,
looks like an all-star team.

1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602
3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350
4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342
5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039
7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972
8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966
9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924
10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877
11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869
12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799
14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799
15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717
16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706
17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670
18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659
19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659
20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658
21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653

USDP at 16, I still haven't fixed the USDP-17 bug,
so this is why Keller shows up twice.

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088
2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791
3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759
4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728
5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700
6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683
7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633
8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580
9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498
10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495

USHL at 16

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723
2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678
3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524
4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455
5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390
6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377
7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321
9 MATT NIETO USHL 314
10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306

Tkuchuk is 73, 194, these are his comparables

at age 17:

1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132
2 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
3 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210
4 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891
5 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
6 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859
7 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840
8 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834
9 SAM REINHART WHL 785

So this post is really boring.  Tkachuk is really
good, and everyone knows it.
 

Edited June 4, 2016 by rakish

[rakish]

Jake Bean is our first defenseman. The model does poorly with
defensemen, but if you look at the history of Central Scouting,
the eye-test is even worse. If I was really drafting, I would draft
more defensemen than forwards, just because I don't really know.

Eliteprospects tells me that everyone ranks him at about 15th, so
he ought to be there at 8 or 9, whichever I have.  And by the way,
I love that I have his stats back to 13 years old.

OK, WHL at 17, this is why I was so excited to get Pilon in the 4th
round last draft and should have taken Martin the year before.

1 IVAN PROVOROV WHL 812
2 MORGAN RIELLY WHL 720
3 NOAH JUULSEN WHL 606
4 SETH JONES WHL 600
5 JOE MORROW WHL 563
6 JAKE BEAN WHL 559
7 RYAN PILON WHL 527
8 BRYCEN MARTIN WHL 500
9 SHEA THEODORE WHL 491
10 DERRICK POULIOT WHL 487

WHL at 16, Ok, defensemen at 16 probably doesn't mean anything

1 JAKE BEAN WHL 543
2 ERIC ROY WHL 464
3 RYAN PULOCK WHL 432
4 GRIFFIN REINHART WHL 360
5 RYAN MURRAY WHL 333
6 BRYCEN MARTIN WHL 322
7 STEFAN ELLIOTT WHL 322
8 KALE CLAGUE WHL 311
9 SHEA THEODORE WHL 294
10 DAVID MUSIL WHL 292

Bean is 73, 172, which is, of course, light for a defenseman.
These are his comparables at age 17 added to age 16.

1 JAKE BEAN 1102 -WHL 559 -WHL 543 17.0
2 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8
3 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1
4 VEETI VAINIO 704 -Jr. A SM-liiga 475 -Jr. A SM-liiga 229 17.2
5 NOAH JUULSEN 699 -WHL 606 -WHL 93 17.5
6 JOHN MOORE 627 -USHL 431 -USHL 196 17.8
7 BOBBY SANGUINETTI 626 -OHL 449 -OHL 177 17.5
8 KALE CLAGUE 588 -WHL 277 -WHL 311 17.3
9 MAX LAJOIE 570 -WHL 315 -WHL 255 17.9
10 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN 533 -SuperElit 400 -SuperElit 133 18.0

I think I agree with the eye-test people, you take Bean about
pick 15 or 20, certainly not someone I'm looking at at 8, or 9.

[rakish]

Eliteprospects tells me Jakob Chychrun is ranked between
4th to 10th, I think I'm toward the high end. 4th to 10th
is pretty much the sweet spot for a Sabre pick
at 8 or 9. An OHL defenseman.

OHL at 17

1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913
2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689
3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658
4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657
5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641
6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628
7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628
8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605
9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592
10 CODY CECI OHL 592
11 DREW DOUGHTY OHL 545

OHL at 16

1 DREW DOUGHTY OHL 719
2 ALEX PIETRANGELO OHL 562
3 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 534
4 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 443
5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 402
6 NICK EBERT OHL 308
7 SEAN DAY OHL 301
8 CODY CECI OHL 298
9 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 289
10 MARK KATIC OHL 271

Chychrun is 74, 194, these are his 17th year
plus 16th year comparibles.

1 CAM FOWLER 1084 -OHL 689 -NAHL-USDP 395 17.8
2 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1048 -OHL 605 -OHL 443 17.5
3 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9
4 NOAH HANIFIN 936 -NCAA 462 -USDP-USDP-USHL 475 17.6
5 ADAM LARSSON 917 -SHL 433 -SHL 484 17.8
6 ZACH BOGOSIAN 917 -OHL 628 -OHL 289 17.2
7 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7
8 ESA LINDELL 868 -Jr. A SM-liiga 574 -Jr. B SM-sarja 294 17.3
9 JONAS JUNLAND 859 -SuperElit 684 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 17.8
10 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9

I think Chychrun is the first defenseman picked,
right around pick 3, or 4, or 5.  If both Chychrun
and Keller are there at 8, or 9? I gotta think about that.
Neither?
 

[LGR4GM]

If Neither are there, I assume Juolevi or Sergachev or Nylander is

 

My concern with Chy is can be process at NHL speeds.

[rakish]

I realize you are bored. That, so far, I'm not telling
you anything you didn't know. I'm telling you things like Matt Tkachuk
is really the 3rd best player in the draft, which is boring.
It won't be long before we are talking about players you haven't
considered, so be patient.

Everyone thinks Puljujarvi is the third best prospect. These are
the top 10 Liiga 17-year-olds, which you may remember from the
Patrik Laine post.

1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1304
2 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1055
3 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 878
4 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 864
5 JOEL ARMIA Liiga 725
6 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 672
7 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 600
8 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN Liiga 535
9 ROOPE HINTZ Liiga 534
10 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 484

Mestis at 16, not very helpful, do note that Puljujarvi
didn't have the wasted 16th year that Laine had.

1 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Mestis 347
2 PATRIK LAINE Mestis 83
3 OSKAR OSALA Mestis 68

Liiga at 16, hanging with Barkov, this list is really
impressive.

1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 780
2 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 761
3 KASPERI KAPANEN Liiga 480
4 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 292
5 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 276
6 ALEKSI SAARELA Liiga 190
7 JESSE JOENSUU Liiga 62

Jr A Liiga at 16

1 MIKAEL GRANLUND Jr. A SM-liiga 484
2 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Jr. A SM-liiga 468
3 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Jr. A SM-liiga 449
4 SEBASTIAN AHO Jr. A SM-liiga 333
5 ROOPE HINTZ Jr. A SM-liiga 316
6 TEEMU PULKKINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 299
7 ALEKSI SAARELA Jr. A SM-liiga 258
8 JESSE JOENSUU Jr. A SM-liiga 242
9 MIIKKA SALOMÄKI Jr. A SM-liiga 232
10 MIKKO RANTANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 222

Puljujarvi is 75, 201, these are his
comparables at age 17.
1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1304
2 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245
3 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953
4 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 878
5 ANZE KOPITAR SuperElit 794
6 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766
7 AUSTON MATTHEWS NLA 760
8 JOEL ARMIA Liiga 725
9 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713
10 TOMAS HERTL Czech 711
11 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 672
12 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670
13 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 636
14 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632
15 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 600
16 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 546
17 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513
18 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV QMJHL 511
19 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG SuperElit 510
20 VALERI NICHUSHKIN KHL 500

Ought to be picked 3rd, 4th, or 5th or so,
what more to be said?  He'll make my draft
board because he'll be a solid pick at 8 or 9,
whichever I got, if everyone I like more is gone.
 

[rakish]

MODO!

Carl Grundstrom brings a whole new set of
comparables, a short heavy from the SHL.  
Not ranked by anyone except CSS EU,
Gundstrom will make my draft board as a
possibility for 38, or 39, whichever I got.

SHL at 17

1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943
2 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891
3 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 721
4 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539
5 MIKA ZIBANEJAD SHL 519
6 JACOB JOSEFSON SHL 480
7 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 473
8 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 459
9 PONTUS ÅBERG SHL 455
10 CALLE JÄRNKROK SHL 409

SHL at 16, who plays with adults as a 16-year-old?

1 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 266
2 ANTON LANDER SHL 141
3 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 133
4 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 116
5 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 0
6 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 0
7 FREDRIK FORSBERG SHL 0

SuperElit at 16

1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749
2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520
3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459
4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446
5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428
6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378
7 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342
8 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331
9 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327
10 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326

Grundstrom 71, 194, these are his 17th plus
16th comparables

1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1
2 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5
3 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0
4 SAM GAGNER 1343 -OHL 1039 -USHL 304 17.1
5 NAIL YAKUPOV 1301 -OHL 717 -OHL 584 17.9
6 BRYAN LITTLE 1165 -OHL 877 -OHL 288 17.8
7 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1104 -WHL 658 -WHL 446 17.3
8 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8
9 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0
10 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8
11 JEFF SKINNER 901 -OHL 614 -OHL 287 17.3
12 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2
13 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7
14 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8
15 MAX FRIBERG 826 -Division 1 543 -Division 1 283 17.8
16 JON MATSUMOTO 800 -NCAA 1000 -NCAA 600 18.9
17 CODY HODGSON 745 -OHL 507 -OHL 237 17.6
18 MITCH WAHL 744 -WHL 522 -WHL 222 17.6
19 MIKKEL BØDKER 716 -OHL 428 -SuperElit 288 17.7
20 NICK SHORE 701 -NCAA 409 -USDP-USHL 292 18.0

Yes, MODO was not good, but you don't blame the
17 year old.  OK, maybe the model is fooled because
there was no one good on MODO, ok, that's a possibilty.
Grundstom looks very comparable to Axel Holmstrom, who
wasn't selected until round 7 in 2014. So he may even be
on the board for round 3.
 

[LGR4GM]

I'm personally not bored. Gundstrom fascinates me. I think he'll slide to the 3rd really. If so at #69, I take him.